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State of (selected) races, 09/28/2010.

So, let’s see:

  • Over at Cook Political Report, they’re reporting that another five races (MA-05, ME-02, MS-04, NY-22, & WA-09) have upgraded from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat.  This is consistent with trends against the Republican party in 2006 and 2008; what wrecked the GOP in those years was not that we had seats at-risk, but that we could not stop more and more seats from becoming at-risk. With about five weeks left for this election cycle, Cook reports that the Democrats have 110 seats at risk, while the Republicans have… 17.  The numbers are even worse when it comes to seats in real danger: the number there is currently 53 to 4.
  • Speaking sort-of of Maine, it turns out that the Congresswoman from ME-01 is a searing hypocrite when it comes to private jet use.  Short version: Chellie Pingree made a name for herself as being extremely down on Congressional use of private jets, period, end sentence, no, really, under ABSOLUTELY NO CIRCUMSTANCES AT ALL, she didn’t care what the reason was.  So, yes, she got caught using her hedge-fund boyfriend’s private jet… and getting reimbursed for it, apparently (because she’s that dumb).  There’s video: it even features the stereotypical red carpet.
  • Need I say Dean Scontras for ME-01?  Well, I’ll say it anyway.
  • I can’t find the original link, but apparently Dick Morris likes our chances at toppling some of the party stalwarts. Now, I know that Dick Morris has a spotty record (to put it mildly), but the principle is sound, and the guys that he mentions – Steny Hoyer, Barney Frank, John Dingell – are facing the twin problems of a bad national environment for their party and credible candidates.
  • In MA-04, Barney Frank faces Sean Bielat, who has gotten a good deal of buzz lately.  He’s young, hungry for taking the seat, and has a good, solid resume and demeanor.
  • In MD-05, Steny Hoyer is having to deal with Charles Lollar, who I’ve met personally once and interviewed twice.  Charles is a good candidate and a good guy who has the enthusiastic support of local Republicans; toppling Steny might be impossible in any other cycle, but this isn’t any other cycle.
  • And in MI-15, John Dingell is being challenged by Dr. Rob Steele.  Couple of things to note here: first, the campaign’s already gotten nasty on Dingell’s part, which suggests that the Democrats are worried.  Second: notice that there’s a lot of medical doctors running for Congress as Republicans this year?  Yeah, well, there’s a reason for that.
  • And to finish up: the folks at RCP had to revise their Senate battleground map.  Again.  Good polling in CT and WA for the Republicans pushed those races back up to Toss-up.  Expect a lot of volatility in that one for the next five weeks; also, expect it to be the least predictive.

Moe lane (crosspost)

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