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Is Our Economy Stuck in the Mud?

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss jobless claims, the Fed’s realization that American’s buy groceries and gas, and whether or not we’re ready to pay higher taxes to erase the debt.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

Weekly Claims See Fall, But Jobs Picture Remains Weak
Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Dip in April
Bullard says core inflation is a rotten concept
Boehner Lays Down the Debt-Ceiling Gauntlet
Sen. Toomey On Debt Limit: ‘No Danger Of A Shortage Of Cash’
GOP “No New Taxes” Position Is Rapidly Crumbling

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COMMENTS

  • Old_Crow
  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    1) jobless claims at around 400k are not super high and we can see substantial job growth at that level. Keep in mind that even during boom times claims rarely drop below 300k and that we never adjust the claims to the labor force (which should be done as the size of the labor force directly impacts jobless claims). If we adjusted the claims, we would find that today’s levels are below what they were for most of the 80s.

    2) One more time with inflation. Oil prices depend greatly on global supply/demand and food prices can be greatly affected (as they are now) by weather. The fed excludes these items because they are not only volatile, but because the methods to combat them (tighter monetary policy) would lead to slower growth here (without necessarily slowing down growth in the globe) and thus Americans would lose jobs and prices may still not fall. The question has to come down to whether it is easier to buy $4 gallon gas with your job of $3 gallon gas without a job. Also, as we are about to see, the prices are volatile, as if gas holds where it is now (down about 10% on the month), you may see a deflationary print.

    3) On the spending cuts, I agree with Francis. Any cuts to spending will have a negative impact on the economy because their currently is no crowding out in the market (as shown by interest rates). Not to say we shouldn’t cut, but we must recognize that jobs will be lost (not just government jobs) and growth will slow.

    4) On taxes, I would bet that most Americans would support tax increases (and not just the ones on the rich). We know that the majority of people favor tax hikes on the rich (of course since it is other people’s money), but I also think that people would support higher medicare/social security taxes to preserve most of those programs. Obviously, there is a level of tax increase that would be too high and reforms to social security and medicare are absolutely necessary, but a combination of some payroll tax increase with benefit cuts would probably work.

    The problem we have today is there is no willingness to compromise on either side of the isle and both sides have drawn ridiculous lines in the sand on certain issues.

  • earlgrey
  • Old_Crow

    I would not support a dimes worth of tax increases for ANY reason, including preserving medicare and social security. Those programs have NEVER been sustainable and increasing taxes would just be another way for politicians to collect more money and delay the death of medicare and social security a few years.

    I would not support any candidate who does not have strong platform of cutting government spending and a promise not to increase taxes and fees FOR ANY REASON.

    It is a good thing when politicians are contained in a tight box and have very limited spending authority.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    On people who don’t currently pay income tax. Flat tax @ something like 15% on everyone. No exemptions. No corporate tax at all.

  • earlgrey

    to running the government?

  • YnotNOW

    As that further distorts market incentives to work, save, invest and grow the economy. Tax deductions should be reduced in order to lower tax RATES. Ideally this should be revenue neutral, but with growth incentives will actually increase government income slightly.

    (and yes, more people should be paying the lowest rate – partcularly half of those who are net tax receivers)

  • acat
  • catt

    No … which is why they tax them with 15% payroll tax … and then gasoline tax and other taxes. It’s not that they don’t pay taxes … it’s that the taxes they pay are collected in a stealthy manner.

    A flat rate that affects every dollar of income no matter who makes it or how … and eliminates corporate taxes and payroll taxes and gas taxes and so on and so on and so on … makes a lot of sense. No “prebate” nonsense. No stealthy taxes like sales taxes and the “employer’s share” of payroll taxes.

    There’s no need to _raise_ taxes! Just let everyone see in one big fat number on April 15 just how much they contributed to running the government … rather than collecting the same amount in stealthy ways that are easy for people to overlook.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    “All” people – with income – should be. One of the reasons government has grown exponentially is that too few people actually have skin in the game.

    Actually, I would go so far as to eliminate withholding. If taxpayers had to actually write a check once a quarter, cutting $2T out of the budget would not only not be difficult, it would only be the starting point.

  • catt

    The people you’re talking about already pay 15% off the top in the form of payroll taxes. Are you talking about _adding_ 15% in the form of income tax … in other words increasing their tax burden from 15% to 30% … or just changing the way it’s collected from payroll tax to income tax?

    If you’re talking about a flat rate tax that replaces all the other taxes then that’s a good thing in terms of making people more aware of what they’re paying … and it’s not a tax increase. While we’re at it corporate taxes and the gas tax and so on can all be eliminated too. Make it all show up in one lump sum on April 15.

    There’s no way to sell the idea of a tax increase on the 47% of Americans who earn the lowest wages. No need for a tax increase either.

    Eliminating withholding sounds great until you think about the cost of collecting the money from people who spend their whole paycheck and then can’t write a check to the IRS at the end of the quarter.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    can privatize Social Security and Medicare. And on top of that would be a flat income tax on the order of 15%.

    Until everybody pays there will be no pressure to cut spending in any meaningful way. And I could care less about the problems of collecting quarterly taxes. I have absolutely no problem with the government not being able to collect taxes and running out of money. Let ‘em sell the debt to collection agencies just like Visa. The difference would be that on the Visa debt the consumer actually got something of value.

    Everybody pays. Especially the 47% of Americans – you can call them leeches if you’d like – who pay nothing. Everybody pays. Everybody.

  • catt

    pay 15% off the top in payroll taxes. If they drive they get hit by federal gas tax. Liquor and cigarette taxes if they drink or smoke. Corporate taxes passed on as higher prices on pretty much everything they buy. It’s false to say they pay no tax to the federal government. The problem isn’t that they aren’t paying taxes … the problem is that they have no idea how much they’re paying.

    It would be political suicide to propose a “tax increase on the poor”. And a bad idea too.

    The government has its fingers in their pockets in all kinds of ways. They don’t need a tax increase … they need some education about how much they’re already paying.

    How about this … a series of ads showing people who “paid no income tax” last year. Say it’s someone with a 30k/year job. Show their reactions as they find out that the federal government took $4500 … half from them and half from the employer … in payroll taxes. Explain how corporate taxes get passed along as higher prices … around $1500 based on one estimate I found for low-income families … the national average is over $3000 per household. Gas tax and other taxes too. Add it all up.

    People think in terms of their take-home pay and other tangible amounts so make this concrete. They paid no income taxes … but the federal government took the equivalent of __three or four months__ of their take-home pay. Maybe that’s a year’s worth of rent or mortgage payments. Maybe two years worth of car payments. Make it concrete using real people and real numbers.

    Close the ad with the person shocked to learn what they’re REALLY paying saying something like “I could have done a lot with a few extra paychecks in my pocket … what’s the government doing with my money?

    Repeat for different occupations and wage levels.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    on paying for the upkeep of the government? That’s about the biggest bunch of hogwash I’ve heard in a long time.

    I have no problem with the ad, but EVERYBODY pays. And if it’s a “tax increase” for the poor and a “tax cut” for the rich, so be it.

  • catt

    How do you figure they’re getting a pass when the government is taking 15% for payroll taxes … another significant bite in the form of higher prices due to corporate taxes … smaller bites every time they fill the tank or buy cigarettes or booze … and so on. That’s the problem with so many ways of taxing people … very very few people have a realistic idea of how much of their own money goes to the government.

    That hypothetical person earning a $30k wage and losing $4500 to the government in payroll taxes and maybe $1500 or so as the effect of corporate taxes on consumer prices … they may _think_ they didn’t pay much to the federal government but that money came out of their pocket and went … directly or indirectly … into the general fund whether they realized it or not. You’re right that they’re probably not motivated to see spending cut … but that’s not because the government didn’t take money from them it’s because most of it was taken in stealthy ways. Stealthy taxation is still taxation. The worst kind really.

    It’s like the difference between being robbed at gunpoint and having your pocket picked. The problem isn’t that these people need to be robbed at gunpoint in addition to having their pocket picked. They don’t need to have the government take _more_ of their money. They need to be educated about the fact that they’re having their pocket picked.

  • http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/pages/The-Reagan-Files/144699382218118 Samuel Pennell

    There is a major spelling error in the second line of your article!

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    1. For the intermediate term, and that would be until SS and Medicare can be privatized and and a significant portion of the current population who will remain covered by both still covered (read alive) payroll taxes are necessary to fund the system. Unfortunately, you can’t go cold turkey.

    2. Flat tax at X% on ALL income makes everybody an equal partner in funding the government. And, since it’s a direct tax on income, it’s the most painful to pay. That is a good thing.

    3. Get over it. Or offer your own plan to tax our citizens.

  • acat

    is that if it were implemented – including the repeal of the necessary amendments – it would immediately be more fair than the current income tax.

    Your 15% flat tax proposal has a similar effect, Becker – that is, it scrapes off generations of “tax policy as social engineering” barnacles, both from the Right and the Left, and leaves a tax policy that is about one thing – funding the government.

    I’m somewhat apathetic about how we reach that end goal, but that should be the goal.

    Mew

    * the two main problems with the Fair Tax are (1) the prebate, which will be abused and gamed and tweaked by the Dems and (2) it’s otherwise a national sales tax, that is, a stealth tax.

  • catt

    If your idea is to change to a flat tax _now_ and then get rid of the payroll tax after SS and medicare are gone and enough people in those programs have died off that the payroll tax could be phased out … then you’re talking about a “tax increase on the poor” NOW with a promise of a tax cut for them maybe in a few decades. Maybe.

    NOBODY is going to like the idea of a tax increase on the poor. For Republicans … it’s a tax increase! You’ve even managed to find a tax increase that liberals would have a hard time accepting … it’s a tax increase on the poor that would be _visible_ to the poor.

    Offer my own plan? Just look up the thread I already suggested what I’d prefer. A flat income tax replacing _all_ other federal taxes. Get rid of the payroll tax and corporate tax and excise taxes. Let them see every year a lump sum total of what the government took. The idea is NOT to propose a tax increase but a simple and visible way of taxing people.

    Realistically a sweeping tax reform like that isn’t going to happen any time soon. That’s why I proposed an alternative … educate people about how the government is taking money from them … most of it taken in stealthy ways.

    Take that hypothetical person who earns 30k. The payroll tax is around 15% … corporate taxes passed on as higher prices 6% or more according to one estimate … without even getting to excise taxes the government is getting more than $6000 out of them and they probably don’t even realize it. At most they’re aware of $2000 or so of it that shows up as a line on their pay stub … the rest is _invisible_ and that’s the real problem.

    The solution isn’t to have the government take MORE of their money! Educate them about how much they’re losing … and put it in concrete terms. Maybe it works out to eight paychecks … eight times their take home pay. A year’s worth of rent. If you’ve ever had to stretch a small salary you can understand how that’s going to sound to someone in that sort of situation. To them it’s a huge amount of money. They’re going to be thinking about what they could have done with that money if they’d been able to keep it.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908
  • catt

    Obviously we’re getting nowhere. I don’t see how that person earning $30k and having the government get more than $6000 from them … some shown on their paystub but most of it stealthily via the “employer’s share” and indirectly via corporate taxes passed on as higher prices and also excise taxes … is getting a “free ride”. They’re getting shafted and don’t realize it.

    I certainly don’t think that having the government take MORE of their money is a solution … and the idea that anyone from either party would propose a tax increase on the poor is just nuts.

    You aren’t addressing those points in your replies so you can just post another insult and we’ll call it quits.

  • acat
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    simple nonetheless.

    People take an interest in things in which they have a personal financial stake. If you aren’t paying for the expansion of government, you don’t care at best, and at worst you see no problem with it because you aren’t paying for it. Heck, you’re probably a recipient of some of that expansion.

    You don’t seem to be able to process the idea that if people are required to support the government, and it’s expansion, at all levels of income the net result will be outrage over the spending spree that the Congress has been on for the last 70 or so years. Oh, and it will stop in a big hurry.

    Nobody gets a free pass.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I’m not advocating collecting more in total taxes. Just making sure everyone is contributing. That, by it’s very nature, will end up being a “tax increase” on some individuals. Tough.

  • acat

    is whether it would boil out as a tax *cut* for anyone.

    If so, then .. get ready for demagoguery!

    My thought is to introduce a “floor” tax rate, i.e. everybody pays the floor rate on all income. Period. Some people will pay more based on larger incomes.

    The floor rate doesn’t have to be much – 5% would do it – but it can’t be gotten around.

    The nice part is it wouldn’t lower taxes for anyone…

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I don’t much care if it’s 15% or 12% or 18%. I don’t even care if it’s a stepped (progressive) tax like 18% above $X,000 and 12% below. What I want to see is everybody paying. Everybody with skin in the game.

  • acat

    That’s why I suggested adding a “floor” rate that nobody with any income can avoid – that takes at least one tool “It’s a tax break for the rich!” out of the Dem playbook.

    It’s still “tax hike for the working poor”, but .. given the economy, I don’t expect that argument to play well outside the rotting urban centers anyway, and a “floor” rate would get “skin in the game” …

    Mew

  • catt

    Anyone getting wages is paying 15% in payroll tax and a minimum of 6% … based on estimates I could find … in the form of corporate taxes that are passed along as higher consumer prices. Plus some excise taxes on top of that. Plus higher prices due to excise taxes that increase the cost of shipping goods for example.

    The flat rate could be 20% and they’d be getting a tax _cut_. The stealthy taxes would just be showing up as income tax instead. That rate applies to EVERY dollar. No deductions or tax credits or other social engineering gimmicks. No corporate taxes or excise taxes or payroll taxes.

  • catt

    You keep ignoring the point but the people you’re talking about … the ones earning wages … DO have a personal financial stake.

    Money goes out of their pockets and into the general fund. Some directly and some indirectly … most of it so stealthily they don’t even realize it. But if those taxes weren’t taking their money they’d have a big chunk of money … in percentage terms … in their pocket that they don’t have now.

    How is that not counting as having a personal financial stake? Money goes out of their pockets … into the general fund … paying for the same things your tax money pays for.

    The problem is that they don’t KNOW it. This is INTENTIONAL. Some of that comes out on their pay stub … easy to overlook after your first few pay check in my experience. Some they never see because their employer pays it for them … but that’s really getting passed along to them in the form of lower wages because it’s overhead for the employer. Some they pay in the form of higher consumer prices because corporate taxes just get passed along. Some they pay in the form of excise taxes. Some they pay in the form of higher prices resulting from excise taxes. And on and on and on.

    I’m agreeing with you that people have an interest in things they have a personal financial stake in … as long as they KNOW it. In this case they have the stake but it’s done in an insidious way that keeps them ignorant of it.

    It’s so insidious that some people hear the “47% don’t pay federal income tax” statistic and misunderstand it to mean that the government doesn’t have it’s fingers in the pockets of those 47%! That’s the kind of ignorance that needs to be cured.

  • acat

    There’s prisoners in both State and Fed custody who earn next to nothing but file 1040s every year just to get the refund based on the EIC.

    How is that “skin in the game” ?

    The number, by the way, would have to be closer to 30% than 20% to include “all federal taxes” including tarrifs and some of the heavy industry taxes, especially oil.

    That, by the way, brings us to the other assumption you’re making – will companies really pass along the savings?

    Just sayin’

    Mew

  • catt

    would be earning 36 cents an hour or whatever it is and paying 10 cents an hour or whatever in taxes. They aren’t earning much so there’s not much to tax … but the principel I’d propose would be that every dollar for every person gets taxed exactly once at one flat rate.

    “The number, by the way, would have to be closer to 30% than 20% to include

  • acat
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    You are really dense.

  • catt

    The proposal is to change the _kind_ not the _amount_ of taxation. Replace all existing federal taxes with income tax.

    The more realistic proposal is just to educate people about how much they are really paying in stealthy taxes. It’s a lot more than most realize.

  • catt

    If money is going out of their pocket and into the federal government’s pocket … as it is … then what matters is that they KNOW how deeply the government has its fingers in their pockets.

    Besides my suggestion WAS for a flat income tax on everyone … replacing all other federal taxes. That’s idealistic but it makes everyone pay income tax AND doesn’t mean raising taxes on the poor … just taking the money at gunpoint rather than by picking their pocket so that they know what they’re paying.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    You have zero reading comprehension and you are demonstrably incapable of processing concepts on issues.

  • catt

    Ending tax credits = raising taxes? Then we’re not talking about the 47% though we’re talking about people who make so little that the current tax credits are large relative to what they make. Like prisoners earning pennies an hour or someone who has zero income or only worked a few hours a week or something. If that “tax increase” … actually a reduction in giveaways … were the sticking point on tax reform I think it would be a solvable problem.

  • acat

    Remember, ending tax breaks for oil companies now counts as reducing corporate welfare.

    The Libs will absolutely reinterpret ending credits = raising taxes.

    That’s why I’m saying not to change the existing structure *at all*, other than adding a “floor”. That is, a rate that any earned income – even the prisoners’ pennies an hour – must pay taxes on.

    That eats away at most of the 47% without adding a stealth “national sales tax” (and the Fair Tax is a sales tax in drag) or raising existing rates.

    Mew