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Texas Tea On Tuesday?

So who here believes the media spin that The Tea Party is done for and kaput? Anyone? If such is the case, you can relax. Texas Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is going to dispatch State Solicitor General Ted Cruz in the Texas Senatorial Primary this Tuesday. The Good Old Boys have this one well in hand.

Dewhurst even offers up polling that supports that contention. He released an internal poll to National Journal that had him clinging (perhaps bitterly) to a 48-43 lead. He further claims to hold an advantage in early voting that will overwhelm any late burst of enthusiasm on behalf of Mr. Cruz.

Like much of Dewhurst’s messaging, this has a pointed edge and a sense of opportunistic expediency about it. He wants people to ignore Cruz’s final weekend of campaigning because SG Cruz has pretty much brought in the Tea Party All-Star Team to help him finish things off. National Journal details the artillery barrage Cruz unleashed Saturday and Sunday.

However, what Cruz has lacked in finances he will probably make up for in star power. Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Glenn Beck and Rick Santorum will all be campaigning on Cruz’s behalf this weekend.

Yet not all the signs out there agree with the story being put out there by the active and aggressive Dewhurst messaging team. RealClearPolitics keeps historical tabs on polling results for races over time. They tracked head-to-head numbers on Cruz v. Dewhurst since late May. They show Cruz having totally turned the race around.

PPP’s polling results for May v. July indicate a 30 point decline for Dewhurst in just 2 months. He’s gone from +25 to -5 in a head-to-head against Cruz. Mr. Dewhurst has failed to win frineds and influence people.

And just to make sure they had it right, PPP executed one more poll

PPP’s final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44. Cruz’s victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

So who here still thinks the GOP establishment can pick the nominees for any position in a low-lit, smoky room? I guess we’ll all find out this Tuesday. If Mr. Dewhurst’s concession speech is as classy as his campaign to date, be sure to have your beer and popcorn ready.

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