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The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.

Spoiler warning: 'mixed.'

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  September 7th, 2012 at 08:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Michael Barone has taken a look at two non-battleground states – New Jersey and Connecticut – and sees something interesting:

In three recent polls in heavily affluent suburban Connecticut, Obama leads Romney by only 52%-43%. He carried the state 61%-38%. Obama is running 9% behind his 2008 percentage; his 23% margin is now 9%. Polling in New Jersey, also heavily affluent suburban, is averaging 50%-40%, down from Obama’s 57%-42% in 2008. Neither state is a target state (though south Jersey gets Philadelphia TV, with any Pennsylvania-targeted ads) or likely to be one on these numbers. But if the apparent CT and NJ trends are happening in affluent suburbs in target states, assumptions based on 2008 benchmarks could prove to be unjustified.

Barone goes on to note a what he (and I) consider to be too-good-to-be-true poll of Cook County, IL; but even if Cook County is not in play it still remains unlikely that Obama will make his 2008 numbers there, either, which is largely Michael Barone’s point. But let’s go back to CT & NJ for a moment. Specifically, the Senate races in both.

You probably have heard already that the McMahon/Murphy Connecticut Senate race is getting interesting: Rasmussen and Quinnipac both came out with McMahon ahead in the polling at this point. Even the Democratic-controlled PPP couldn’t get more than a 48/44 lead for Murphy… and if you look at the trend there you’ll see that this is a steady erosion of Murphy’s lead over the course of the election season. When a candidate is getting at or above 50 and then steadily loses it – which is what happened in PPP & Quinnipac – that candidate is not in a good position. Meanwhile, over in New Jersey: the Menendez/Kyrillos Senate race is not showing the same drift. It’s in fact pretty static (if you look at the 2006 polling, Menendez is in a much better place now than he was then). Menendez is not consistently hitting 50%, but that happens a lot in NJ polling.

Which means, alas, that while I think that you can see suburban retreat from the Democrats being reflected in the CT-SEN race (no real data on the House races yet) it’s not really showing up yet in the NJ-SEN one. I still hold out hope on the latter race – after all, Robert Menendez has been rumored to be dirty for years (an occupational hazard of coming up from the ranks of the Hudson County Democratic party, which is where NJ grows the really corrupt politicians) – but Obama is probably not going to be one of those universal panaceas for our down-ticket races. Well, he will not reliably be one. We still actually have to win the darn things.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Linda McMahon and Joe Kyrillos for Senate. Obviously.

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COMMENTS

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  • Kyle-MI

    The 52% job approval is from Gallup and is a poll of everyone, not even restricted to registered voters. Rasmussen’s poll is of likely voters and has Obama’s job approval at 46/54 approval/disapproval. Every conservative site I have seen has said that the Dem convention was a disaster for the Dems, although I am taking that with a grain of salt. There will probably be a small bounce for Obama but all bounces fade.

  • commonsenseobserver

    I also think Team Romney’s strategy of not attaking on ideology is flawed. We don’t have to drag up nonsense from his early life- his Jimmy Carter big government liberalism is shown in his policies. Independents realise that Obama is liberal, now Team Romney needs to make the case that he is out of the mainstream and leading us in the wrong direction, nice guy or not. Which explains his record of failure.

  • chieftain

    There is a also a suburban retreat in supposed Obama stronghold of Illinois. See http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois
    I believe that Obama will lose Illinois to Romney/Ryan. It should be a competitive state since dispirited Obama voters in East St. Louis and Chicago will have a lower turnout. The rest of Illinois is Republican. The unfolding teacher strike in murder Capital Chicago will not help Rahm or Obama. Since there is no Governor or Senate race in Illinois this year, only the energized will vote. Romney/Ryan can help some of the down ticket Republican Congressmen by campaigning there and the state IS winnable for the Republicans.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Basically, Romney has to define the choice, and defend the change. Even if this is a referendum on Obama’s record.

  • Viet71

    I live in Connecticut, and my take on the McMahon-Murphy senate race is this:

    1. McMahon is a much stronger candidate this time around.

    2. Murphy, an acolyte of Nancy Pelosi, would be a Sherrod Brown-type Dem senator. He’s too far to the left for a lot of CT voters who might have voted for Joe Lieberman. He owes his first election to the House to anger at GWB (he represents CT-05, my district). This time around, he’s going to bear the brunt of some anger at Dem Governor Dannel Malloy, who has raised taxes and driven jobs and people from the state. Connecticut is generally affluent, but the economy here is far from vibrant.

  • proudmarinemom

    I drive back over the Potomac to my native state of Maryland several times a week. In my old hometown, the wealthiest suburb of D.C., the Obama bumper stickers and yard signs are gone. The “Impeach Them” yard signs are gone. The “War Is Not The Answer” signs are gone.

    My siblings, three of whom are conservative Republicans (we lost the others to Kool-Ade), are actually putting Republican yardsigns out. This simply was ‘not done’ four years ago. A few have joined the local party committee and are actively campaigning for Romney/Ryan. The Catholic parish where we all grew up is actively encouraging attendance at a meeting next week. The topic will be the loss of religious freedom under Obamacare and the impact on Catholic hospitals, universities and charitble organizations. My understanding is that they are expecting a huge turnout. People are really fired up about this issue. The same people who fell for the social justice bullcrap four years ago and now regret it.

    Maryland is no longer the Obama stronghold it was, if you believe my unofficial bumper sticker / yard sign “poll”.

    Returning to the South side of the river, the sight of Romney yardsigns springing up like weeds is like seeing the Emerald City. And wait until we get the Romney/Ryan signs in to our local campaign offices (any day now — the wait is a killer). They’ll be grabbed up in a frenzy.

    Don’t give up the ship.

  • septembergurl

    Very interesting, marinemom. Driving between Annapolis, where I live, and Bethesda where I work, I too have seen fewer yard signs for Obama. I’ve even seen signs for Dan Bongino, our excellent Senate candidate. Still, Maryland is one of those states that has become less republican over the past decade. It was once not unusual to have a Rep governor, the seat held by Van Hollen was often held by a RINO, but now only a few Congressional seats and one of those (Bartlett) endangered by redistricting.

    You have 30% black vote plus gummint workers, pretty strong labor vote, etc, illegal aliens, etc. Yes, there is a big Catholic vote, and doubtless the gay marriage initiative will hurt the black vote. We will see.

    Are you going to see Romney in Virginia Beach this afternoon? This is to roll out position/ads on defense cuts.

  • renny

    Actually, on 101.5 radio yesterday at 4 pm, the news reported Romney in NJ was only down 7 pts. against the big zero, and I think NJ is very much in play with a popular gov. in Chris Christie who sometimes polls 60% favorability. We have over 9% unemployment and NOTHING that DC has done has helped NJ.
    In our Soc. Sec. office last week, I saw dozens waiting for be called, mostly minority (I actually live in a pretty white-bread retirement area), the “clients” overflowing into the parking lot, while a huge flat screen monitor advertised how to apply for Soc. Sec., disability (most were there about dis.), food stamps, unemployment, workmen’s comp, and welfare. Interestingly, after each promo, there would be an annoucement that an armed guard was on the premises and disruption and violence would not be tolerated. I guess fighting over the goodies forces even the left has to limit its toleration.

  • izoneguy

    Obama’s base, that lost third of the country, may not be as enthralled as they were in 2008. But they are committed, utterly convinced about who the villains are, and prepared to be as chameleon as it takes to reel in, from the culture they dominate, the additional 15 percent or so needed to push their guy across the finish line. That’s how what should be a landslide for his opponent becomes a squeaker.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/316333