« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Recession May Have Been Worse Than He Knew, But The Obama Administration Declared It Over by August 2009

A1pZgZ9CYAEBBpz

The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the recession over in June of 2009.

By September of 2009, Ben Bernanke was telling folks that based on the numbers the recession “is very likely over.”

On June 17, 2010, the White House declared a summer of recovery.

Today, there are fewer people in the jobs market than any time since September of 1981.

Jobs numbers in June and July were revised downward.

10,000 of the 96,000 jobs created in August came because workers on a strike went back to work.

Barack Obama may have inherited a terrible economy. It may have been worse than he or anyone else knew.

But his government declared it over by mid-2009, his White House declared a Summer of Recovery in 2010, and he has failed, again, to deliver.

This should not be a hard case for Mitt Romney to prosecute.

COMMENTS

  • renl57

    Look, a company can make money without necessarily hiring more American workers.

    During the deep recession, a lot of companies took the opportunity to invest heavily in automation, computers, robotics, outsourcing, etc. So now they’ve retooled, they can do even more work with fewer human workers. Bank of America used their $42 billion in bailout money to eliminate 30,000 American jobs and move their operations to the Philippines.

    Plus, our GDP is now being skewed by knowledge companies that make vast amounts of money with a small labor force. Look at Facebook. They make billions of dollars with a staff of just a few hundred employees.

    That’s why economists refer to unemployment as a “LAGGING indicator” of the economy. During a recession, companies first try to cut costs by getting rid of the deadwood, automation, outsourcing, etc. Because an American worker is so expensive, they don’t resort to hiring American workers until they’re really experiencing boom times and all other efforts to do more with less have been exhausted.

  • renl57

    It’s worse than that.

    We now know from news reports that Christina Romer had realized that the $780 billion stimulus package was not going to significantly reduce unemployment. According to Keynesian theory, she found it was way too small. (Which is also what Keynesian economists like Krugman and Stiglitz had been saying at the time.) She said the package had to be at least $1.4 trillion, to produce the results in that infamous chart Biden was touting. (I don’t have to post the link, you’ve all seen it by now.)

    Geithner overruled her, saying that a much bigger package would not pass Congress. So Obama continued with the rosy predictions Romer had made for the $1.4 trillion figure, even though he only got a $780 billion figure.

    BTW: No nation has been able to recover quickly from a financial collapse by pushing out a series of Keynesian stimulus packages. Japan tried that–how many stimulus packages did they employ, five, six?–and they still ended up with a Lost Decade anyway.

  • ohiohistorian

    Not talking apples and oranges. You missed my point. The recession ended in 2009, but you have actually go back to 1981 to find lower job numbers which also includes during recession? In a country with a GDP that is largely consumer-fueled? For the labor participation to go down, and at the same time have the unemployment rate go down, shows you how there are three kinds of liars; liars, d**n liars, and government statisticians.

  • ohiohistorian

    Our GDP is being skewed by the deficit which his money being spent by the Government and inflates the GDP. This GDP is government fueled, just like he will dump some oil into the pipeline from the strategic reserve to make oil prices go down at the election. Both the oil source and the money source are finite and will dry up. If you subtract the government spending, we should not have ended the recession when we did. Unfortunately, once the government money is withdrawn, we have some tough months to go through to get back the real economy.

    These are the reasons I refer to Obama as the Robert Mugabe (President of Zimbabwe) of the United States, not just the second Jimmah Carter. Bernanke’s money dilutes the value of the money already out there, and Bernanke has no way, other than inflation if he doesn’t and high interest rates if he does, to pull his money back out of the economy. Look for both high interest rates and inflation to mark the recovery. This President has screwed the person who has tried to save for his own retirement, buy his own house, and to do for himself/herself. He has supported the “gimme” people who are looking for a handout .

  • ohiohistorian

    I loved the editorial in USAToday by Wolf, who said that “Despite Gaffes, Biden is still a force”. My contention is that USAToday put the wrong word in the headline, and it should have been is “…still a FARCE”.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Obama inherited a bad situation from Bush, he made it worse. Simple as that. Big government just never works.
    Bush actually had a stronger recovery than Obama, with tax cuts and all, but ultimately tax cuts without broad reform are useless.

  • bobsmitley

    It may have been developed in 1981, but there are statistics all the way back to 1948.
    It measures the percentage of people working or looking for work divided by the entire adult (16 and older) poupulation that are able bodied.
    The labor participation rate averaged between 58 and 60 percent for decades, until the trickle down policy’s of the 1980′s started forcing households to have more than one wage earner to survive.
    At that time the rate started to skyrocket and has averaged between 63 and 67 percent every since.
    The current rate is at the low end of that rate at about 63.5 percent for August.
    Part of the probem with all of these statistics, is that the Labor Department has never seen a downturn like we saw 4 years ago, since the great depression. And I don’t think that their models can handle the current conditions.
    For instance, Romney is making a big deal about the 96,000 new jobs for August as being low, well the actual (non seasonally adjusted) number of jobs in the report is 610,000 jobs higher.
    If their estimation math for seasonal adjustment is off, by even 10 or 20 percent, the number could have been 61,000 to 122,000 jobs higher.
    The point is that we are headed in the right direction, with the right kind of basic economic factors to try and rebuid the middle class that has ben decimated over the last 30 years of Supply Side economics.

  • bobsmitley

    Would you have rather had the full blow depression that we were headed into?

  • bobsmitley

    I watched both conventions and I still have not heard anything from Romney, except “Trust Me, I’ll let you know what I’m going to do TO you later”.
    This man will say and do anything to hide who he really is and what he will really do, and I am truly frightened for the future of my children and grandchildren if this greedy, apathetic man gets control of this country.

  • Guest

    So let’s just double down on those tax cuts, yeah, that will wrk.

  • bobsmitley

    So let’s just double down on those tax cuts. Yeah, that’s it, that will work.

  • bobsmitley

    I know facts are a hard thing for some people to understand.

  • proudmarinemom

    Are you lost? You were looking for a discussion group that cares what you think and you accidentally stumbled in here?

  • proudmarinemom

    We heard you the first time.

  • bobsmitley

    The last tiime we had ean economic down turn as bad as what we saw almost 4 years ago, it took more than a decade and a world war to get us out of it.

  • bobsmitley

    No, I have been a Republican since Reagan, I just have become Extremely disappointed and frustrated with the blindness and memory loss that the current crop seems to be suffering from.
    Reagan’s legacy has been completely basterized over the last decade or so, by people that seem to be so filled with hatred that they ignore the facts. Supply side economics was somewhat benefiicial to a point, but that point was hit a long time ago and the middle class (my self and my family) have been under assault from these policy’s for years.
    I belive that the ROnld Reagan that I got to know, who brought back respect to the military while I was actually serving, would be ashamed of what has become f the party and would not be a part of it.
    We need to try something other than just cutting the wealthy’s taxes and throwing the poor and middle class under the bus.

  • ohiohistorian

    Would that we were returning to the era where one person worked and the other took care of house and kinder. If you look, the labor participation rate change now is paralleled by the people going onto Social Security disability and onto government “assistance” programs. We are NOT headed in the “right” direction.

    There are other indicators that the economy is still in trouble: the middle class per-family income has fallen (so much for rebuilding the middle class), the deficit has skyrocketed (the Democrats all lied that they were for balanced budgets). The GOVERNMENT cannot build the middle class, which is a statistical artifact of a bell curve, and the private economy won’t until it is unfettered and the “excesses” that the liberals decry (e.g. PROFIT, that dirty word) is allowed to happen. We are headed for a socialist economy where the “rich” are the government employees. Anybody with two brain cells to rub together would know that there is tax point where people will willingly earn less revenue because of higher taxes, so if you tax them more and then redistribute it, the result is that the average income goes DOWN, not up. It is too bad that economics is not taught anymore; heck, most graduates are like “Turbo-Tax” Tim and can’t even do their own income tax forms properly (but neither can IRS agents; call the IRS and try to get a question answered; they will give you two different answers).

    You are SO in the tank for Obama, so I will paraphrase for you the great question bk asked below: “Will you vote for Obama because you liked it when he lied to you and said it was easy to fix before, or because he tells you that it is so hard that he needs more time to fix it?

  • MoeLane

    You speak to a ghost.

  • ohiohistorian

    I would rather have had the 1920, 1947, and 1981 response than the Hoover/FDR/Carter/Obama response. All of the first three worked because the government got out of the way. The last ones listed didn’t work because Hoover/FDR/Carter/Obama thought they were the smartest guys in the room and could manage the government to remake the economy to some “fairer” ideal. I want to know what Milton Friedman asked: who are the “angels” that you think can run the economy and make it fairer? Turbo-Tax Tim? Eric Holder? Christine Romer? Valerie Jarrett? This administration is stuffed with corrupt people who never ran a lemonade stand, but know how to make our economy work, while the POTUS goes out and does fund raisers and plays golf. Thanks, I’ll take my chances on Romney, because unlike Obama, he DID build something.

  • ohiohistorian

    Because we had a President like Obama. You need to read history and find out about the Panic of 1920, which your buddy Wilson had a big part in creating. Harding responded to it, and the “Roaring 20′s” resulted, which was the largest middle-class gain in the US ever seen. I’m glad you saw bk’s comment. It sure applies to you.

  • Viet71

    Given that Leftists lie with no remorse, and given that you sound much like a Leftist interloper, why should anyone here believe that you’ve been “a Republican since Reagan”?

  • earlgrey

    I notice you use the word hate here and I don’t get it. I am so absolutely sick of little tiny children using a form of the word hate as if it is supposed to garner respect. THat is not something that most legitamate red state R posters do. If you voted for REagan you must have been confused. THere is nothing I read in your post that sounds like anything other cry baby liberalism.
    We have the most progressive tax structure in the western world, but that isn’t enough. We have to tear down the rich even more.

  • earlgrey

    DId it occur to you that part of the reason it took so long to get out of that downturn was the policies that were in place. Read about how the regulations and rules on businesses were relaxed to prepare so quickly for WW2. It was that change in policy that pulled us out of the downturn.
    Your mask is off. You are a lib. Own it. You’ll get more respect that way.

  • Hafeed

    The big change occurring around 1981 (beside an explosive Reagan recovery), was large numbers of women joining the labor force. That only makes the relationship with 1981 look worse. The number for men alone is back to 1948 levels. The point is that Despite increases in workplace sexual equality, today’s numbers are all the way down to 1981.

  • renl57

    My $0.02:

    The dirty little secret of Keynesian economics is this:

    NO NATION on earth has ever recovered quickly from a financial collapse by employing Keynesian economic stimulus–without war.

    How many fiscal stimulus packages did Japan have in the 1990s? Five? Six? They still had a “Lost Decade” and the Nikkei 225 never recovered.

    Take a look:
    http://i45.tinypic.com/mah553.jpg

    All those countries tried to do precisely what Obama is trying to do. And look at the disappointing results.

    Because the shortfall from the financial collapse can be so huge that only a truly titanic fiscal stimulus–trillions and trillions of dollars–can reverse it. And the economic distortions that result are politically unacceptable–except in wartime when the populace is galvanized into a state of patriotic frenzy.

    Once the U.S. entered World War II, the Government started spending 40% of U.S. GDP on national defense. In today’s dollars that would be a fiscal stimulus package of $6 trillion per year for 3 years! And THAT got the U.S. out of the depression. But it caused inflation, which FDR countered with wage-and-price controls. And that caused shortages, which FDR countered with rationing. You couldn’t buy meat without a ration coupon. You couldn’t buy gasoline without a ration coupon. Etc.

    Paul Krugman, a LEFT-WING economist, has been quite open about this. He said that Keynesian theory requires that size stimulus to restore full employment. But he always leaves out the concomitant requirement for wage-and-price controls and rationing.

    John Kenneth Galbriath, a left-wing economist of the previous generation, admitted that FDR’s approach to full employment was only possible when accompanied by mandatory wage-and-price controls (followed by rationing). In peacetime, no Western government will dare to do that.

  • Bill S

    Appears you’re a case in point.

  • http://thewriteamerica.com thewriteamerica

    Excellent point. It shows another layer of his inability to lead. Even when his own advisors come to him with “facts” and “projections” under the economic theory that he adheres to, Obama still can’t make the right call. He has “deer in headlights” syndrome.

  • Dave_A

    Key point: The economic definition of ‘RECESSION’ is a period of 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Unemployment, labor-force participation, and such do not factor into weather or not we are in a recession, using the proper academic definition.

    Therefore, as much as I hate to agree with the Obama Administration, they are right – the recession, this definition, began in late 2008 and ended in late 2009.

    We have been in *stagnation* ever since – eg, GDP growth has been unsatisfactorily low – often below 1%, and usually mirroring or almost tied-to the equally insufficient rate of inflation (which makes sense – you can’t recover from a deflationary recession without restoring the money supply – and that requires inflation).

    However, Obama didn’t promise to ‘end the recession’ he promised to fix the economy – and in that regard he has failed. Stagnation is not acceptable.

    What would be ‘acceptable’ from a purely objective standpoint? 3% or more GDP growth, and ~3% inflation.

    If we had that, then he could claim he lived up to his promise.

    But we don’t

    And he hasn’t.

  • Dave_A

    Because jobs numbers have nothing to do with weather we are in a recession or not.

    Recession = Negative GDP. Nothing more, nothing less.

  • Dave_A

    The middle class hasn’t been ‘decimated by supply side economics’. We’re doing just fine – in fact, this recession largely passed us by…

    Note: Middle Class = 50k/yr, college-educated, white collar. Our unemployment rate is right around 4.9% right now…

    However, the Democrats are actively trying to destroy our quality-of-life with ‘excise’ taxes (and the associated littany of other non-income taxation) & regulation…

    Every bit of the ‘American dream’ – the house in the suburbs/exurbs, the cars that come with it… All the ‘fun’ stuff your average American may want to buy…

    It’s all slapped with one or more absurd taxes, in the name of soaking the rich… Except we’re not rich, but we’re still taxed as if we were…

    And the money doesn’t go to fund things we use – 40% of the gas tax is wasted on transportation-welfare for city-dwellers (mass-transit)…. Federal excise taxes on boats & firearms (enacted to ‘soak the rich’ – but you pay ‘em on a $300 shotgun or a 15′ fishing boat) don’t pay for the park system, wildlife conservation, or anything related to those items – they fill the general-fund….

    Oh, and they want to make it worse… Enjoy anything with a gas-engine? Carbon tax…

    Don’t want to live packed into a high-rise? ‘Smart Growth’ regulation – too bad, unless you’re rich or a govt worker…

    And let’s not even get started on trying to own & use your own land, anywhere but the unreachable back-woods of Montana…

    If you wonder why middle-class Americans vote GOP? That’s why… We’ve heard the Democrat line before… We’ve seen what they do… Which is:

    1) Claim they’re going to ‘tax the rich’ and shake down anyone with a dime to their name in the process…

    2) Waste the money collected on things no middle-class American needs or wants (usually programs for people who could have been middle class & self sufficient, but for bad behavior & poor choices – not ‘misfortune’)….

    And that’s how a normal, every-day American becomes a Republican…

  • Dave_A

    Actually, the money source isn’t finite…

    Money is a producible commodity…

    Inflation, BTW, would be very good right now. There will be no recovery without it.

  • duanej

    GDP is made of 3 components, 1 of them being government expenditures. We are only in positive GDP growth because we have spent ourselves into oblivion and spent on projects that, while may be nice, aren’t necessary. So we fixed a few roads and bridges and built a tunnel for turtles to cross I-95 safely. That doesn’t lead to long term job growth. Yes, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator…but its been lagging now for 43 months. GDP is a leading indicator and if it weren’t for the excessive government spending, we’d be negative growth right now. The problem is we have no way to pay for all of this spending, so we are just accumulating debt at the rate of a trillion dollars a year and growing. The way to get GDP growing is to take money out of the hands of government and give it to the private sector for investment and purchasing. Individuals and even corporations with a profit motive make better decisions on how to spend money that an unaccountable, irresponsible, bloated government.

  • ihateliberals

    he may have inherited a bad economy but it wasn’t the Bush economy it was the fall-out that finally hit from the Clinton and Congress 1998-99 era economics. The Housing Bubble collapse set of a chain reaction that spread around the world. The Problem is that Obama didn’t care about that at all. His stimulus plan was to pay back the backers of the 2006 and 2008 elections that put him into office. I don’t think he understood or cared about the collapse in that it fits into his plan to Socialize America. Blaming the Republicans is that only active thing he has done about the economy. People tend to give him credit for Obamacare and that is pure bologna. Obamacare came from congress re-packing a Hilary Clinton objective and putting it on the Presidents desk. I still don’t think he knows the power that Obamacare gives to the government over the people.

    Declaring the recession over was nothing more than politics. he couldn’t tell or care if it was over. Congress was pushing this in an effort to save their jhobs in the 2010 electins which failed for them. They don’t give the American people enough credit to think that they know what is going on. i hope that they will get a very big surprise come November second when they are trying to rent moving vans. Our jobless rate isn’t all that bad here where i live but that doesn’t mean the the economy isn’t bad here. this is a big warehouse trucking area and business is always moving here. The problem is that most of the people that have jobs here haven’t had a raise since 2007 and the price of gasoline has doubled in that time along with rents, and food prices. There is more to this than just having the recession over and an alleged recovery. With so many people out of work you can’t just use the financials to declare the recovery a success.

    There are people in my area that lost 6 figure jobs to the off-shore craze. These people might find jobs but not at 6 figures. many of them will lose boats, cars, and most importantly their homes. just because they are working doesn’t mean they are OK. It doesn’t mean the economy has recovered.

    Even if Mr Romney wins this election I don’t believe he can do what President Reagan did in the 80′s. The reason being is that in the 80′s we still had most of our manufacturing jobs and IT jobs and 6 figure potential jobs located right here in America. Mr Romney doesn’t have that advantage. my job for example where i was making 6 figures after 30 years of hard work was off-shored to India and will not be back. i thankfully was t retirement age and didn’t have to seek another position. Friends of mine weren’t so lucky. You can’at make 6 figures driving a fork lift or picking apples especially when the illegals are here taking those jobs at not much more than minimum wage or piece work. ficing this economy is going to take a President and congress willing to give Tax incentives to companies to move jobs back to America. If that doesn’t happen than there won’t be much of a recovery under either president.