The RNC message presented Romney as a 90′s guy who feels our
pain, continuing with the “choice election” narrative set by the Dems
and the media, instead of stressing ideological arguments to make this a “referendum
election” on Obama’s first term. They seem to have conceded the argument to the
left and are playing on their field, by their rules. Question: Does anyone know
if they have tethered Paul Ryan the way they did Palin? He seems more subdued
lately. Hope that will change soon!

to me the unresolved issue is whether this election will, in the end, more closely mirror 2004 or 1980. I have come to accept that I will NOT be getting the comfort which will come from a nice Romney-Ryan 6-8 point national RCP poll lead. They will have to do what RR did in 1980 – run a tight, strong campaign with great debate performances.

they are perfectly capable of doing so. we in the base need to do our part – with money and time and energy. in the privacy of the voting booth, I believe that Americans will make the right choice. between now and then, we have to do what we can.

0 got a bounce. O.K., so now it is time to remind voters just what a failure the 0 administration has been. If he said he was going to do something, other than health care, it probably didn’t get done. A budget? No requirement. Trim the deficit? Not convenient. Have Holder be responsible for his actions? Not necessary. And so on.

I dont agree with your assessment that Romney has done himself a disservice Granted I would have liked to have had more red meat in his speech then anything but thats ok he needs to be able to connect with the voted thats doesnt pay attention to the political realm everyday and I think he has done so(There is a reason that all the Obama fecal matter thrown at him has not stuck)Now for alll of the polling that is being done I think it willl stay a close race until election day (much like 1980) but It wont be the blowout we all would love to see it will be somewhere between 04 and 80 with Romney with around 300 EV

I agree.
The base already knows that Obama, bless his heart, is an incompetent idiot who bought into socialist claptrap. I doubt hearing more of that from Romney would motivate them a lot (not that Team Romney hasn’t hammered the point). Let voters decide whether the biggest celeb in the world is a nice guy.
But I do think Team Romney needs to recalibrate his strategy to coordinate his two messages: sacking Obama, and then hiring him. He isn’t connecting the dots for voters, be it Obama’s record and Obama’s vision versus his own.
I expressed confidence in Stuart Stevens once, now I think that when someone doesn’t do his job, you’ve got to let him go. Time for someone else. Ed Gillespie, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour?
And he does need to stop putting his foot in his mouth regarding healthcare. I also understand some Conservatives are hitting him for saying that Clinton “elevated” the DNC. Well, I agree, compared to Obama & Biden. And Bill was certainly effective in changing the terms of the debate, from a referendum on Obama to a choice between Clinton-Obama (!!!) and Bush-Romney. We need to fight that, or adapt to that.
And they should never forget Ryan’s value as a surrogate. The guy’s great.

On the contrary, a choice election would be much more ideological. You’d notice that’s what Clinton was trying to shift this campaign to.
A referendum is still Team Romney’s strategy, but I fear the time has passed for that. The choice now is between change vs. more of the same. This allows us to frame it as a referendum, but we must never forget to define both the status quo, and the change, cementing the contrast, and linking the dots on how change will help Americans.
Define Obama’s record, define his big government agenda, and we’d have won half of the game. We’ve done some good work there, but never joined the dots. The DNC should help us on that.
Meanwhile, we also need to define our nominees’ own records and agenda. That Romney was a mainstream, centrist, pragmatic, but still reformist Governor may be used to our advantage, as can Ryan’s record of fighting for change from inside Washington. But the argument has to be nuanced, coherent, and clear. Massachusetts is a risky topic with the base still frustrated, of course. But the guy managed to make the best of a bad situation, and actually get some Democrats to work with him for reform.
I know they’re trying to define Rep. Ryan as a monster, liar, and idiot all at once. Politics is stressful. They should make sure he rests and has enough time with his family. And let him do the work where he’s best- policy wonkery. Allow him to roll out Romney’s policies and attack Obama on policy, while Romney would focus on introducing himself, and speaking in broader themes.

artanis, this was not a case of foot-in-mouth, he really likes a lot of it. Heck it is mostly his own plan anyway, since Obamacare was Romneycare first. Which is why most conservatives didn’t have him in their top 19 picks during the primaries.

It seems like just a hope & a prayer that this months statistics will change anything.
It didnt change anything in May. Or June. Or July/August so I wonder what the basis is for it changing now?
Unfortunately I believe the problem is that we have nominated a weak candidate that has yet to go thru the debates & already trails Obama. Anybody thinking that will change due to a strong Rmoney debate performance should tune into his other debacles. A Mormon betting $10,000.00 during one such event is a good first example.
The only chance is to move to center immediately. A victory without the womens vote is impossible & all current data shows that stances on abortion & birth control are hurting. Badly. Endorsing entitlement cuts without doing the same for defense makes it look lop-sided & overly-partisan. No independent voters to be gained there.
If we dont embrace the reality of changing demographics & act accordingly & immediately we will find ourselves quickly being relegated to a regional has-been of a party with little more than regional support.
Do we want the White House in 2012 or not?
If we do its time to grow up.

Post convention polling is consistently erratic. Presidents Michael Dukakis & John McCain left their conventions with large leads. Oh wait, they didnt get elected? Turns out their post convention bounce was a dead cat and the polling returned to pre convention levels or more accurately, voters had clearer memories of conditions driving pre convention polling than balloons and speeches.

Those conditions: are you better off than 4 years ago is too easy, are you better off than one year ago. Hint: answer is no.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/07/worse-off-in-2011/?iid=HP_LN

Actually, McCain was rising and overtaking Obama until the Financial collapse, and then he cratered.

Obamaloney.
For one thing, lots of those things he claims to want to keep were not part of Romneycare. Romneycare was a lot more basic. Obamacare included lots of other goodies.
I’ve also read the quote in context, and while I disagree with him regarding coverage for those below 26, I can understand that his comments regarding those with pre-existing conditions were meant to refer to things like high-risk pools and healthcare portability.
Regarding Romneycare itself, I can’t say I like it, but it was a worthwhile try, unfortunately subverted by Democrats, as a state-level experiment, with a bipartisan consensus, to expand coverage and make full use of the state’s Medicare funds. The Democrats overruled many of his vetoes on this issue, exploited loopholes and bureaucracies, and were actually considering instituting an outright public option. I say Romney made the best of a bad situation to pass reforms to expand health coverage and keep the state from losing Medicare funds. It was, above all, a state-level innovative experiment, rather than a top-down Washington mess of taxes and regulations.

nice troll. Well played.

A message that could appeal to both independents and the base:
America is a nation built on faith and freedom. Obama has threatened those with his weak leadership and flawed vision. Romney and Ryan will restore the promise of America because they have lived the American dream and they believe in it. If we safeguard those principles which are under assault from big government politicians and bureaucrats in Washington, we can strengthen the middle class, our families, our churches, our communities, and our country as a whole, renewing the American promise of opportunity and security for all. That’s what the Romney-Ryan plan will do.
When Americans succeed, America succeeds. It’s true that we’re all in this together. This is why it’s not government that’s behind America’s success, it’s the hard work and faith of individual Americans, who do indeed come together, but not as the Democrats think.

I raised this point an hour ago, see above. What makes me angry is that he is getting in Kerry territory there. I was for it before I was against it. However, the nuance is that now he is for it again, in some parts but not all. What a mess? Is the independent voter going to spend an hour to parse out what his position is and why or will he just say, screw it, I don’t know where you stand. The last remaining 5-6% of the electorate that’s undecided are the ones that don’t decide until late because they don’t pay attention. They want a clear choice, not a, I like this part, but not that part, and maybe I change this, considering that etc.
Ugh!,!!

I tend to agree with your “10 Day Rule” and I think the visual of the cymbal crashing monkeys was so funny I put a picture of Spritel and Chim-Chim from Speed Racer on my Desktop.

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Spritel+Chim+Chim&view=detail&id=E8066A7B5A666D0EBA2C399FA85FE68DB8024BAE

I don’t know what Dick Morris is thinking, though. Here’s my post-convention read:

1) The Republicans had a lackluster convention. Internal grumbling and infighting, a hurricane hitting first Tampa and then NOLA, a fairly bizarre and unscripted speech by a guy who should have knocked it out of the park but looked and sounded a lot like he’d just rolled out of bed, and a solid but not a grand slam speech by the Nominee all added up to a damp blanket. Not precisely a wet blanket, but a damp one.

2) All the Democrats had to do was not have a major calamity. They almost accomplished that with the “God and Jerusalem” problem, but the coverage of that by the Usual Suspects was so muted that they dodged it. It was an issue for people who read Drudge, who watch Fox, and of course the Right blogosphere but it was airbrushed out for the rest of the country.

3) The Democrats brought in Grandmaster Flash Clinton who, playing the Supporting Actor in his role at the convention towered over Eastwood’s mediocre and haphazard improv.

4) Obama gave an empty speech but it was long on the generalities and the feel-good pabulum and more importantly it was received by the audience in Charlotte as though it was the greatest speech ever given.

5) Dick Morris keeps trumpeting statistics saying most Americans are Conservative and 53%-54% want the government out of their way in terms of polling, but those numbers I think conceal two essential truths: 20% of the people who consider themselves “Conservative” do so in the sense of Dave Mustaine from Megadeth:

“Whaddya mean I don’t believe in God? I talk to him every day…”
“Whaddya mean I don’t support your System? I go to court when I have to…”

More importantly my guess is that 20% of the people who self-identify as “Conservative” say that when asked, but what they really mean is: “Yeah, I guess compared to my high school/college days I’m a lot more Conservative. I have a job. I’m married now, and I have two kids. I don’t party every night any more, just on the weekends.”

And when they say: “I want the government out of my way” they are thinking of the DMV and the local police not arresting them.

So given all of that, I expected Obama to come out of the Convention with about an 6-8% point lead over Romney. The numbers show it’s about 5% and an uphill battle for the rest of the campaign.

Then there is your 10-day lag/lead factor and I think that’s going to begin to take hold as the fireworks fade, and Americans start looking at yet another long winter with more people out of the labor force than any time in modern history – looking toward the Holiday season with the numbers we’ve got now is a stark and disappointing landscape.

Let’s cowboy up a bit. As Gateway Pundit notes, Carter was up by 4 on Reagan in September 1980. We have three debates and a Veep debate. Those will matter. The economy is in bad shape. Fight hard and have faith.

trust me, I do this professionally

Poling in the aftermath of conventions is very unreliable to the point of being nearly meaningless. Let’s see where they are on Thursday, then in about two weeks and then again in mid October. I’m betting that by Thursday things will be back about where they were before the conventions, with Obama at 46-47 and Romney about 44-46.

http://storify.com/TheRickWilson/contra-inevitability Rick Wilson raises good points why Romney will win.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980/ Gallup had Carter up +4 in September and +6 in October 1980. In hindsight, were things actually that bad for Reagan then (certainly not) it was probably Gallup making errors or actively trying to help Carter. I agree there is risk for Romney, but look at all the polls very critically. A lot of them are manipulated.

And even with the polls (let’s assume they are true), Ohio is closer than you think. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

So is Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

ARG is one of the worst pollsters ever in the history of mankind as far as I can tell.

Finally, one other thing:

I think the European Central Bank really showed its cards and gave a lot of credence to my belief that the Eurozone is deliberately jacking the world’s stock markets around with the selective release of bad news followed by uncannily timed flashes of “good news.” The ECB announcing it’s intention to effectively collectivize Europe’s debt with “unlimited” bond buying coincided with the day of Obama’s speech and it instantly goosed the DOW just as Obama was practicing his lines for the evening.

They want him to win, there’s absolutely no doubt about it in my mind – and they will do whatever they can to make sure he wins.

I do wish R&R had campaigned really hard one of those days of the Dem convention–it would have been great if before Clinton’s speech or even after, they would have tagged Bubba as “Bagdad Bill.”
It would have been an immediate reminder that while the econ. picture of American was rosy for a time under Clinton (with all that help from the GOP), Bubba has a way with words that obscure the truth from time to time.
I’d also start hammering, I mean really hammering Barry on the roll back of the Clinton welfare agreement. I’d make it clear that was one of Bill’s accomplishments, helped his positives, but now his party is requiring he lie about it and Bagdad Billy is obliging.
Time to take off the gloves, boys. Neither Romney nor Ryan is a mean-spirited guy (which, I believe Barry is), so when they say these things, there are likely to come off as non-strident, but effective.
Bagdad Bill is spinnin’ for Bloviating Barry.

A language lesson for R&R–metaphors are the way to persuasion. Obama uses them effectively, even if he’s full of s–t.

I can’t speak to polling history – I’m not an expert in these matters, and I only know as much as I’ve read about – which suggests a lot of polling is flawed, with over-sampling of Democrats.

But, if I may make a tangential point: For the first time in my life, I am volunteering with a GOTV effort. And, the people I am meeting via the Romney Victory Office are of ALL stripes. Young. Old. Male. Female. Etc. Etc. Etc.

And MANY of them are like me. First time volunteers who are skittish about becoming involved, but realize that this is for ALL the marbles and that we MUST **DO** SOMETHING to save our country.

So, I am choosing to ignore the polls, and the Lib Media, and the Talking Heads in DC. I am choosing to believe what I see with my OWN eyes: A country on the brink, millions of my brothers and sisters out of work, under-water on their homes, paying double at the pump (from 2009)… and FED UP enough to actually get off their rear-ends and DO a damn thing about it.

I will be QUITE LITERALLY stunned – beyond belief – if Obama wins a 2nd term. And I will sadly acknowledge that this country will – unfortunately for us Patriots – deserve what she gets.

But that’s the problem.

Romney isn’t presenting a positive contrast. Ryan is–but listening to Romney, it’s hard to tell if he agrees with Ryan or not.

Romney keeps saying our country is in serious trouble, the economy is in shambles (and it is). But then his proposed solutions are standard GOP rhetoric from any previous year, when things weren’t that bad.

That’s not what Reagan gave us in 1980. He didn’t run on the 1972 GOP platform or the 1976 GOP Platform or on the same positions Gerald Ford had taken. He proposed a sweeping, broad, bold set of reforms that were not only different from Carter, but even different from past GOP proposals.

America is in such sad shape now, there’s gotta be something bolder from Romney than just “cut taxes and drill.” Because that was what the GOP always ran on–yet today America is in much worse shape.

What does Romney propose to do about all the American homeowners who are upside-down on their mortgages? About middle-aged Americans who were laid off 2 years ago and whose job skills have gone stale or who have to start over in a different field? About the fact that American wages are being bid down to the world equilibrium level (and with Chinese workers outnumbering American workers, world wages will look more like theirs than ours)? About the fact that you go into Target or Wal-Mart to buy stuff and you find that 96% of it isn’t made in America anymore?

I guess what I’m saying is that when the patient is this sick, you don’t keep prescribing the same aspirin you prescribed for milder cases.

Romney may well have solutions–but he doesn’t talk much about those.

I remember 1980.

Reagan turned the election around in his debate with Carter, which was only a week before Election Day. Otherwise, Reagan might have lost.

So yeah, if Romney manages to knock out Obama in the debates, then he can win.

Oh, yes, Romney should immediately flip-flop on a number of key issues, so the Dems can resurrect the “flip-flopper” charge and point to how Romney is panicking and running away from the GOP platform.

What a wonderful plan you have there. NOT.

Any Republicans who didn’t like the GOP Platform had the opportunity to say so at the GOP convention. Now it’s been voted on–and it’s the Platform that Romney-Ryan will run on.

I just went to HotAir and saw the Rasmussen numbers for today. I’m depressed. Obama’s job approval numbers are as high as they’ve been in 18 months according to Rasmussen, the guy whose numbers I most trust because they are based on likely voters. They attribute the numbers to Clinton’s speech and I am thinking, “No matter how good things were economically under Clinton, everyone, they stupid and the bright, have to know that party members always support the party. They also know that Clinton lies, loves the limelight, etc.”
So, how in the world can a person who sees his neighbor, his kid, his friend out of work or working in a job that pays little and offers no future, how in the world can one speech by someone (Even if you love him) who you know is “just a talker” change numbers like that when the country is still at a standstill?

From this morning’s Rasmussen:
“The president’s bounce began the night after Bill Clinton spoke to the convention and received rave reviews. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of the former president. Democrats overwhelmingly believe Clinton and Obama have similar views on how to fix the economy, but few Republicans and unaffiliated voters share that assessment. Among all voters, 59% see Clinton as a better president, while 19% prefer Obama. Democrats are evenly divided.”
Okay, so if that’s the way it is, it give us insight into how to attack Barry by using Bubba. We have to point out at every turn, we have to list in detail, every policy move that Bubba made in conjunction with the Gop that led to good times.
R&R should recount what Gov. Susana Martinez, life-long Democrat born of democrat parents said to her hubby when she listened to the policy positions of two GOP members wanting to talk to her : “I’ll be damned; we’re Republicans!”
Okay, take a cue from her. Talk about Bubba how he institued GOP policies to revive the economy and say, “Can you believe it? Bubba’s a Republican!”

Another line of attack should be taken directly from one of their own, Maureen Dowd, feminazi of the NYTimes, who this morning is as angry with Barry as I’ve ever heard her:

“ “So you see, the election four years ago wasn’t about me,” President Obama explained. ‘It was about you. My fellow citizens, you were the change.’ ”
Ohhhh, she’s mad. Yes, she says, Obama is telling you that he didn’t get done what he said he was because it was your fault.
When one of your own fawning harem takes you to task this way, the other side has to pounce.

And Ohio? What about Ohio. Anyone here on the ground in Ohio? Are a sufficient number of former Obama voters likely to go R&R or at least stay home?

They won’t go anywhere, but it’s an opportunity to use progressive words against him–his use of language is mistakenly thought to be brilliant. Many times it’s a window into his narcissisitic soul–use those words against him.
He let his guard down, showed how he really felt with the “They didn’t build it” line (and we should harp on the line that preceded it), and he let his language illustrate once again he has trouble accepting blame for anything with this speech that O’Dowd mocks.

last word is Stuart Stevens, who runs Romney’s campaign has been incompetent….too soft on Obummer and not going on offense of articulating Obummer’s horrible economic record

Karl Rove and Lee Atwater would have Romney up 10 points if either of them ran this campaign

Gallup will go to the likely voter model in October

all Dick Morris does is promote his new books like Ann Coulter…both are irrelevant…big mouths …..not doers

agree….Romney has to crush Obummer in the debates….his campaign must go full out in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida…and the 2 jobs report likely to be crap should sink Obummer

Romney needs to get his surrogates out there too…who really gives a damn about his wife and sons campaigning…they are not credible

realclearpolitics.com has Obummer leading .6 or .7 points of all the polls taken in Ohio.

it’s up to the Romney campaign to carpet bomb the state with negative ads of Obummer and hard campaigning by Romney, Ryan, and even John Kasich to win the state

I think so too…but Romney and Ryan have this habit of not campaigning full force…today, both took the day off while Obummer is in Florida campaigning with Mediscare tactics

But, I am worried about Ohio…I haven’t seen Kasich do any surrogate campaigning there for Romney

If you don’t trust what’s written here, then why are you here? Stop wasting our bandwidth if you don’t like it.

Some of my neighbors were out talking today. They have received robo-calls from polling organizations that ask them to press a number key to choose the next president. They said that they pressed the number key that corresponded with Romney. At the end of the call, the recorded voice said, “Thank you for your vote for Barack Obama.”

Obviously, polls can be wrong, not only because people are not truthful or not home or confused or whatever.

Polls can be rigged.

Whenever some stranger starts a post with “As a republican, I…” he may as well start with “As a troll, I …” Not reading beyond your first sentence. Have a nice day.

Man, you are one of those types of people who see the first touchdown scored against your team, pack up your seat pad, and head for the tunnels are you not? Notice I never said the touchdown scored gave the opponent the lead, simply alluded to your quitting attitude.

Your prediction is nonsense and I believe not even a 50/50 guess. All these polls matter little, change daily, are too heavy one way or the other, and are not indicative of who will win. Romney is doing just fine defining the differences between him and Obama and why his policies are better for this country than what we have seen in the last 3.5 years, and now has the money freed up to express that across the country.

Find your cajones and just focus on the mission. All this nonsense about polls, what Romney is or is not doing, and the ultimate winner come Nov 6th does nothing but get folks down. Romney will win and will win big, so just worry about GOTV and stop with the quitter nonsense.

No they would not. I am not going to disagree or agree on Stevens, but Romney has his campaign where it would be no matter who was in charge. So far no polls have shown anything of value outside of some trending info and how much trouble Obama is in. The reality is, no poll will be of any real value until we are well within 30 days or less to go and only then if the polls takes out all respondents except very likely to vote.

Side note on Karl, he is poison to a campaign now, period. His mouth has overloaded his ass way too much in the last 4 years and the damage he has done to many conservative candidates has not been forgotten. His days as a power broker are over.

he is no different than our turncoat conservative media like Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Michael Savage, Weekly Standard, National Review…etcetra

because the snapshot polls have Obummer leading after the convention, our side panics by reading and listening to the libtard MSM

Proudmarinemom:

As the son of a someone who served in the Marines, I say Semper Fi, and thank you for your son’s service, although I wish you wouldn’t call me a “troll” because of the first three words of my post.

What is wrong with someone pointing out why I think the campaign is going the way it is? I want Romney to win. I’ve donated to his campaign. I just don’t think his campaign is doing well right now.

Why do you object to this?

You are not only an idiot but a fool as well if you think any of the front page posters here or the editor in chief Erick form any kind of an opinion based on any liberal news group. Just because he draws a paycheck from CNN does not mean he bases his opinion of the station. Your ignorance and ignorant comments are just stupidity based on a big mouth that has little past knowledge of this site or its editor.

So I again state that we as a community will continue to listen to those who have been correct most of the time rather than a no name poster such as yourself who can only muster poorly written comments, who uses Obummer time after time because he thinks himself to be clever, and who would be stupid enough to post that one must be on Fox News to be right which had to be the second dumbest thing you posted on this thread.

Bull. He does a great job explaining it and so does Ryan. They both have been campaigning their rear-ends off, too. If you’re watching CNN, you wouldn’t know that.

Just take this negative crap somewhere else, please.

I watched the convention speeches. They were full of platitudes and statistics. But no analysis of what they would do differently and why it would lead to better results than Obama. This is simply true. We cannot allow ourselves to be swept up by group-think like the Obamabots.

Romney and Ryan have an opportunity to change this all around during the debates this fall. Fingers crossed someone in their campaign is listening and knows how to put this argument together.

I don’t watch CNN, I watch Fox News, and from what they are reporting, neither Romney nor Ryan were campaigning today, which doesn’t exactly follow the concept of campaigning ones rear end off.

As far as your request, I will have to say no. I’m not rude, nor am I vulgar. If you think I am too negative, I can’t help you. Last I looked this was a free country, and ordering me to go somewhere else simply because you think I am being too negative is regrettable.

I think what he was probably referring to was the fact that many posters who are really liberals in disguise will post negative things about the GOP while pretending to be republicans, as if it somehow gives their opinion more merit.

I don’t think that’s what you were doing though. I actually agree with you for the most part; I think that Romney is currently on track to lose. However it isn’t because of his strategy. He and Ryan have been working extremely hard and so has the RNC in general. There is only so much a campaign can do when they are up against the Obama machine, which includes the media.

I really think that people are overreacting to the polling though. Obama really isn’t doing that great compared to past elections. For instance, after the GOP convention in 2004, Bush rocketed up to a 10 point lead in some polls, but only won by 3 in the end. In 2008, McCain took a big lead after his convention, and he went on to lose. So, Obama being ahead by a few points right now means nothing.

If he is still ahead by more than 2 or 3 points a week from now, that is a greater cause for concern.

Goodbye, dipwad.

Rockyred:

Your points are well taken. I can see where someone might think that a poster is a liberal in disguise, but that is not the case here. I do want Romney to win, and I’m a little shocked that I was labeled a troll simply because I ventured an opinion based on current polling data. I thought that was a little rough.

While I do disagree with you slightly about strategy, I agree that a week or so should tell whether this is a bounce that fades or whether there is, as you say, cause for concern.

In addition, you cited some very good examples of past campaigns where post-convention polling was not predictive of the final outcome. We’ll see where it goes from here.

The reason R&R need to give: IF Obama get a second term, if you have a job, you are in peril of losing it; if you don’t have one, you are likely not to get one.
Face it, there are those who must be put in fear.

Romney will need a lot more philosophical discipline and better message delivery. Stu Stevens and Eric Fehnstrom should be reshuffled, as should Andrea Saul. Bring John Sununu up to oversee our messaging and rapid response, with Paul Ryan working much more closely to help Boston as well.

Thank you Bill, from the bottom of my heart. That one needed a time out.

I don’t want to hear it. I’m sick of the whining and moaning. If you people want to sit around and cry because Romney wasn’t your first pick, can you at least do the rest of us who are spending our time and money and vacation days trying to make a difference a favor and whine at home alone? If you want to take a defeatist attitude, then go away. So Romney just lost your vote. That means that I and others like me will have to get 2 to make up for your idiotic decision. Thanks a lot for that. Good to know who we can count on when things get tough. Apparently, I’m not the only one who thinks this way.

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/150392/

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/09/spreading-fear-and-despondency/

At least if the country goes down the drain, I can live with myself knowing that I did what I could to make a difference. I can look my friends and family in the eye and tell them I tried to stop the takeover of our country by the leftist radicals while others sat around and moaned.

For anyone else who has the moral conviction and courage left to fight and is sick of the whiners, go to http://www.mittromney.com/forms/get-out-vote-shift-sign and sign up for GOTV.

golffan, are you doing anything to help Romney/Ryan win? GOTV? How about traveling to a swing state and helping the campaign? Knocking on doors? Donating? All of the above? He can’t do it by himself, and he sure can’t do it with a bunch of whiners second-guessing every move he makes and every word he utters as they arm-chair quarterback but do nothing to help the team themselves.

It’s really important to understand that the CU is a “model”, not a predictor. The “model” was fitted after the fact, and then applied forward.

He is definitely a liberal, but perhaps the best statistician working this election is Sam Wang, of Princeton.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/28/models-vs-measurements/

He goes over in detail why the CU model is not a predictor, and why it should not be trusted.

The problem with this is that Congress only has what power it claws back from the Executive.

Congress – any Congress – needs to put the Executive – any executive – back in his or her place, and immediately.

This means playing hardball with the one thing that the Executive needs every day – money.

Not one damn nickel until you stay in your proper box. Don’t want to enforce DOMA? Fine the DOJ can be shut down. All of it. Across the board.

It means not spending money 2 years in advance, just so that you don’t have to fight. It means appropriate money in 30 day blocks. You don’t want to turn over documents? Fine. FBI is not funded next month. Have a good one.

Every time, across the board. The Executive is way, way, way out of control. You want to assisante Americans overseas? Fine, the entire Predator program is defunded. The CIA’s overseas directote is defunded.

This is what the power of the purse was meant to be. And it’s 100% in the power of the House – and really the Speaker of the House – to control.

Congress is CO-EQUAL. Does anyone really believe that Boehner + Reid have the power of an Obama, or even a Roberts?

I put the bumper sticker on my car recently, and I’m getting car horns and thumbs up from other drivers. I’ve been wearing my Romney/Ryan t-shirt and pin around town the last couple of weeks, and I’ve been stopped by folks across all demographics with a “Love your t-shirt” (or pin). They’re not just going along on their way, either. They want to talk about why they’re voting for Romney and against Obama. I’ve had 3 employees in the Publix where I shop ask me if I knew how they could help. One older man, one young man and a young woman. A teenage boy coming out of the movie theater stopped me as I was headed into see 2016. He wanted to know where I got my shirt. So much for young people or women won’t vote for Obama.

I helped coordinate a voter registration drive last week at a nearby assisted living home. One couple had just moved here from Florida and were anxious to make sure they got their voter registration changed. They also signed up for GOTV. So much for retirees won’t vote for Romney.

My last GOTV session was to folks in Florida. There are always a few folks who can’t or won’t talk to you, but the vast majority of folks want to do more than just answer the questions. They want to talk. I had one young woman ask me about the unemployment rate and if she was right that the numbers don’t count someone like her. She went on to explain that she had been working at a good-paying part-time job which she lost because of the economy. She had to take on 2 part-time jobs that combined didn’t pay as much as the one she lost even though she’s having to put in more hours. She was fighting mad and is just one example of the folks we’re reaching through GOTV.

I think there’re three things Romney has to do:
1) Shake up his team. Eric Fehnstrom, Stuart Stevens and Andrea Saul have to be re-deployed. John Sununu and Ed Gillespie should be given more prominent roles in messaging and rapid response. Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey and Haley Barbour should be brought on the team to provide strategic advice. Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Susana Martinez, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, and Rick Snyder should also be consulted on their own messaging and strategies, and pushed into prominent surrogate roles.
2) Shake up the strategy. Right now, Team Romney’s messaging is a mess, as exemplified by their latest ads. Weak and confused. That doesn’t inspire confidence, and Team Romney is running a deficit, so a lack of spending cannot explain that.
First, they need to refine their message. Throw out the nonsense about Obama being a nice guy, and hammer the point that Obama isn’t working, and he’s leading us in the wrong direction with a general lack of competence and a fundamentally flawed vision, while Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan not only have the experience, but also the vision, and the faith in America’s core values of freedom and opportunity, needed to bring real change, solve the problems caused by Obama and big-government Washington politicians as a whole, and restore America’s promise for all Americans, especially the struggling middle class.
Secondly, they need to become bolder and more aggressive. Rapid response should be used to fiercely rebut the Democrats’ lies. They should also take the fight to Obama, like they did with the Solyndra press conference. A wide range of attacks can be launched against Obama, cementing the contrast between his emptiness and malaise, whether in welfare, education, health, debt, jobs etc., and the Romney-Ryan record of successful servant-leadership and plan for hope and renewal. But they need to remember to join the dots.
Last but not least, the Conservative grassroots should be engaged and enlisted. They are very valuable, both as volunteers and donors, but remains suspicious due to a lack of outreach from Team Romney and the RNC. But if we successfully mobilize the base, and use simple but effective technology and organizing, we can more than close Obama’s advantage on the ground.
3) Last but not least, the candidate himself often seems confused, stiff, cold, and secretive. That must change. Having his friends and family out there helps, but the candidate himself must be brought out. That competent and caring man we hear about- he just cannot be seen on TV. Authenticity, honesty, and warmth are very important if Team Romney wants to run a traditional challengers’ campaign, especially in the debates, from Reagon ’80 to Clinton ’92 to Bush ’00.

I think they want to rule the country and would relish in Obama’s winning re-election so they could take over intellectual control of the GOP.

Romney’s taken good conservative stands.
Re-iterates a pro economic growth and reining in government economic plan, pro defense spending, pro traditional values, and pro sealing the borders eliminating magnets drawing illegals here plan.

Is he perfect? No one’s perfect. Hasn’t been a candidate yet who’s agreed 100% with me on the issues. We’re human beings.

It’s not spin that the electoral college map as it stands now gives Obama an edge, it’s cold hard numbers. Of the dozen or so swing states, if just two of the large ones, say Ohio and Florida, go for Obama, it’s virtually impossible for Romney to get to 270. This is not news. If you want Romney to win, you need to look realistically at the challenges and work to overcome them. Accusing the media of bias for telling you what you don’t want to hear isn’t going to win any states for Romney.

Correct, tl.
Romney’s fighting the Chicago thug machine and the referees at the same time. We should cut him slack. Everything he says is reported to divideour ranks. Obama can say anything but it’s that old tree falling in the forest with no one around to hear/see it.

Romney’s pounding him in all battleground states. He has his internal polling.
Clearly he’s a master tactician and will pursue the pragmatic path getting him to 270

I happen to think pragmatic, common-sense Conservatism is very much in the center. Personal compassion and a firm belief in the institutions of family, community, church and country are consistent with constitutional Conservatism, or rather, they are inherent in it.

Not really.

It was surely a different time, not very many pollsters out there.

Gallup had the race right the whole time.

Carter was hand’s down winning through the conventions and the summer, but he got destroyed by Reagan in the debates, which were very late in the election season.

Reagan ran a great campaign, but it was very close until the last week or so of the election. Plus, Anderson did damage to Carter. I am realtively sure Carter would still have lost handily, but the electoral landslide was in part related to Anderson pushing Reagan over the top in typically Democrat friendly states.

I think it’s shifting. I would never have believed that Obama could shift the black mindset on gay marriage, but it’s happening, still slowly.

The “socially conservative” part of the country is aging and dying.

It’s not doomesday, but it will be demographically hard to squeak out victories without some changes either demographically or position wise. Romney and Ryan have a tough rough but they can win. It’s getting harder and harder to stitch together a coalition that can win.

I didn’t see it myself, but I heard an ugly rumor that Mittens said he didn’t want to totally repeal Obamacare, but keep certan provisions of it, such as insurance companies not being able to exclude pre-existing condditions, and being able to keep kids on their parents plans until 26. The problem is, if you don’t KILL the beast, it can have everthing else added back in at a later date! If this is true, Romney has done a LOT to DEenergize his own freakin’ BASE! RIGHT after his convention bounce!
(SOP for the GOP establishment I was just reading an article this past week that said it didn’t exist)

The town hall format would offer him the most freedom, I suppose, while Jim Lehrer is likely to give him a fairer shot in the first debate on domestic policy.
But what happened to that exellent debate coach Romney had once, before Florida or something? I heard he was forced out.

Oh, yeah, and on Team Romney’s non-ideological strategy- it’s entirely consistent to attack Obama’s extreme liberalism and tie it to his record of failure and incompetence, while still respecting him as a person and expressing sympathy for his idiocy.

The Gallup poll is the ultimate oddity. It’s of “Americians” according to RCP and Gallup themselves. What the heck is that? “Americians are the people we need to include to come up with the answer we want.” This is the poll touted by the press as proving 0′bama is bouncing past Romney.

I do think this could be psy-ops to dispirit our side. We know the Dems lie about everything, and brazenly so. What is the make-up of these polls – most likely heavily weighted for Dems. I am aware of Rasmussen, but this data point is out of line with the others and could be spurious. Or, perhaps his lists are getting tainted somehow. Or perhaps he has adjusted his methodology so as not to be an outlier too much of the time. He may have clients who would start to question him if he is too different fromt he others all the time. These polls do not reflect what I’m seeing anecdotally.

I do think the strategy is flawed, but I also think Mitt has the guts and the brains to win this.

Dr. Paul? Hahahaha.

Amen. People need to calm down a little. Now is not the time to play Chicken Little.

This. This is exactly what I’m talking about. There are like 5 undecided people left in the country….go RED MEAT to the base and get us fired up. Stop flip flopping!

okay, you’ve had your fun

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