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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Let’s Hug This Out . . . Or Something . . . Live on the Radio!

There is a lot of angst out there among conservatives over this polling. I think it is a reflection that Romney is not doing as well as many think, though I still think he is doing better than the polls suggest. I also think it is a reflection of the media, as Obama’s mouthpiece, focusing on polling and not on the economy. I think the polling will adjust to reflect the economy over the coming week.

I’m going to spend time talking about this on the radio tonight. If you want to chat, you can call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK. In the metro-Atlanta area you can call in at 404-872-0750.

You can listen live tonight on the WSB live stream. Got questions or concerns? Here’s your chance to talk directly to me.

COMMENTS

  • renl57

    I hope you will discuss the Job Approval polls as well as the horse-race polls.

    Because Obama is the incumbent, in the final analysis this election is a referendum on his job performance. His final vote percentage on Election Day should be fairly close to his job approval number.

    And right now, Obama’s RCP average job approval number is 49.2%.

    Notice that this is not a comparison of Obama vs. Romney. This simply asks respondents if they approve or disapprove of Obama’s job performance.

    Evidently, just about half of Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, the dismal economy notwithstanding. That is unprecedented in the post-1945 era: No president has had such high job approval numbers with the unemployment rate above 8%.

    And that calls for some discussion: Why are so many Americans willing to look past the dismal economy and credit Obama with having done a decent job?

    Is it because the financial collapse didn’t happen on Obama’s watch?

    Or is it because a lot of Americans–particularly those in Obama’s base–have other priorities?

  • inovrmihd

    Romney’s problem is he is not getting any traction on the unemployment rate. Every time his campaign talks about it, they should be using the U-6 number which includes people who want a job but have given up looking. He should talk about the “real unemployment” rate which is over 14%, or simply say that “1 out of 7 people who want a job can’t get one”. Everyone knows the economy is tough, but if the Romney campaign keep harping on the unemployment rate “being over 8%” as opposed to the President’s promised of 6%, most people with jobs are going to think things aren’t as bad as they thought.

  • streiff

    you need to reevaluate what you’re saying because this type of nonsense will get you punted.

  • streiff

    if you want to talk secession go some place else. The next time that subject comes up you’re gone.

  • separatewayz

    Just to put a bit of a reality check on things: Al Gore led George Bush 49% to 43% as late as September 21, 2000. The Gallup reporting post-DNC convention?

    “Following a convention in which their presidential nominee Al Gore pulled into a tie with Republican George W. Bush, the Democratic Party is riding a wave of positive feeling from the American public. Forty-nine percent of Americans say they have a more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party based on what they saw or heard of the party’s convention in Los Angeles, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted August 18-19. The poll, which immediately followed the Democratic National Convention, finds that only about a quarter of Americans — 24% — now have a less favorable view of the Democrats. The increasingly positive evaluations of the Democrats are evident on a variety of measures, ranging from the party Americans perceive as better representing their values, to approval of the job Congressional Democrats are doing. Currently, the Democrats hold a slight advantage on Gallup’s congressional ballot, designed to predict the vote for the U.S. House of Representatives. Additionally, and perhaps most significantly, more Americans currently identify with the Democratic Party than at any other time this year.Of course, the Republican Party also made gains — though not quite as large — following their convention earlier this month, gains that quickly faded.”

    Does all this sound familiar??

    Here is the September 20, 2000 Gallup poll:
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/2524/Gore-Maintains-Modest-Lead.aspx

  • raleighjoe

    Definitely nervous. The media has really shown itself here recently as an incredible propaganda machine. It’s amazing how coordinated it’s become. However I will say that I live in NC and cautiously wonder why we’re still considered a swing state. I’m telling you – I was just an ingrained in the 2008 election as I am now and it was obvious Obama was going to win NC. And he only ended up winning by 25,000 votes. Now you really only see the Obama signs at houses that had Democrat signs up in 2010. Not a lot. You also only see Obama 2012 bumper stickers next to Obama 2008 bumper stickers, and even then I don’t see many at all. The difference then was the independents. So many independents here were just tired of the GOP, tired of John McCain, disgusted with the choice of Sarah Palin, disappointed in how poorly that campaign was run, and, really, just had the position of, “Let’s give this guy (Obama) a chance.” Independents that I know and talk to regularly support Mitt Romney and will vote for him. They just haven’t seen anything from the President. They’re afraid of what four more years of Obama would look like. I will add that African-American voters in NC are not happy with the President’s support of gay marriage. Amendment One passed overwhelmingly in May (61%-39%) and a large part of that was the A-A vote. One African-American person I know well said, “I go to a black church. We belong to a black conference. We are not happy with the President’s endorsement of gay marriage.”

  • runner12

    Morris’ track record on these things is not so good. Not a fan of Rove, but he knows the political game. Taking into account history, I think they are probably right. Time will tell.

  • runner12

    You said earlier this morning on another diary that Romney was on “a trajectory to lose.” You were doing quite a good Chicken Little imitation. After that, you were all rah-rah, no worries, Romney will win. Which is it for you?

    Sorry, but those polar opposite posts make you look a little mobyish. No offense.

  • jp1964

    mobyish?

  • jp1964

    Morris’ predictions tend to track with whatever is in his own interest, and that is typically whatever drives ratings and gets him more face time.

  • jp1964

    This is an interesting reality check. Thanks for that.

  • raleighjoe

    I agree with your points. I cringe at some of the stuff the local media puts out there about Romney and Ryan. Some is directly quoted and relevant. Some is directly quoted and taken out of context. Most of it is very opportunistic, obviously, and contributes to these two larger themes the media has going that 1.) Romney can’t make his mind up on anything so how can be trusted to make the big decisions and 2.) Paul Ryan is a liar. But I think the hope (gosh, can I use that word?) behind all of that is that I think so many Americans have put their walls up. I’m not sure how much people are listening anymore. I mean, there is a group of undecideds…4%, 5%?…that will be swayed by this. I think the majority of this 4 or 5% will swing to Obama because if they haven’t made up their minds yet, they are not thinking big picture and will fall for the shallow handy work coming out of the MSM and Obama campaign. But I think that so long as voter turnout for the Dems is as it sounds like it’s going to be – far fewer young people, fewer minorities, lower turnout for the Dems across the board, strong local GOP candidates – R/R can withstand losing some of those folks. I think Republican turnout will be through the roof. Also, Independents should turn out strongly, as well. I think R/R just need to make sure they are giving the MSM and OC nothing – and I mean nothing – to fuel the fire on these two equally shallow themes. R/R – the waiting is the hardest part, guys! Just ride it out and play it safe!

  • raleighjoe

    Hmmm…how did you know I wet the bed? Oh….mom?

    You’re right…the national polls don’t matter. The national polls don’t matter. The national polls don’t matter. Repeat after me. That’s why (well, another reason) Al Gore (still) wants to eliminate the Electoral College! NC – R/R. Virginia – R/R. That’s 28 there. Anyone else care to throw some optimism into another “swing state” race??

  • vangoghssister

    Sorry to disappoint you, but my state, Oklahoma, was the only state to carry McCain in every county. Results were McCain 65.7% to Obama 34.4% (RCP if you wonder where the figures came from) Yep, we are solidly red and remain so. Even most of our Dems are wearin red in the closet. Y’all don’t live in Texas, so I’d toss out my blue boots if I were you. ‘Sides, it’s better red than dead even if it is a slim margin!

    Ya know, when some eejit ticks me off, my accent gets really thick. :-)

  • jp1964

    No need to get offensive. Let’s get serious though – you are living in an insular world my friend. Oklahoma has a population of ~3.5 million, or 1% of the country, and 7 (count’m 7!) electoral votes. I may not live in Texas, but I can read a census. When those 34 EVs are in jeopardy it will be a game changer.

  • runner12

    A moby is an internet term for someone who pretends to be something they are not. In this case, a lefty pretending to be a conservative. One of their favorite tactics is to play the role of the “concern troll.” It is petty and immature, yet it continues.

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    WaPo did both and found a tie – one way and Obama +6 the other in a D+10 sample. Rassmussen has always had it as a tie in the swing states. Even PPP, is only willing to go as far as 50% Obama (and even Nate Silver admits PPP has a high Democratic lean). I think the election is shaping up to Bush/Kerry 2008. Essentially Obama has lost the people who came across in 2008 from Bush tiredness and we have returned to a 50/50 nation of the 2000/2004 elections.
    I belief the Dem’s believe this is correct in both their convention and the fact that Bob Beckel, Joe Trippi and Roger Simon have all said “base turn out election” with few undecideds (by the way a base turn out election is not a 5 point whipping – either side). I think 1) They are correct and they got the information from Obama. 2) Encouraged because Republicans nearly always win base turn out national elections.
    I’d rather a stomping but this election is really going to come down to can Obama turn his base to overwhelm conservatives and moderates. I say 50/50 and we are spending well into 11/7 to see if Obama got enough votes in Cleveland to carry Ohio to determine the winner.