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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Bill Clinton’s Bounce: How Media Conventional Wisdom Works

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  September 11th, 2012 at 03:30 AM  | 

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Polling is reflecting Bill Clinton’s bounce out of the Democratic National Convention. You wouldn’t know that if you listened to most of the media, but the bounce belonged not to Obama, but to Clinton. Fortunately for the GOP, Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. It must privately grate on Barack Obama.

The media narrative is all about Barack Obama. He’s going to win. He’s ahead. Forget the economic numbers. Let me explain how the media shapes conventional wisdom.

Metaphorically, reporters go into a bathroom at the Politico, sit in a circle, and try to come up with a theme they can bounce off each other with a straight face. Before they go completely blind with dreams of a permanent Democrat majority, they exit the bathroom , call up Larry Sabato or some other designated prognosticator, and ambush him with a statement they then spin into wisdom. And it’s always “experts say” or “Larry Sabato says” or “people close to the campaign” say.

But really, it is them saying it. And then they report on it in a climax of irrational reportorial exuberance.

The media creates conventional wisdom and then reports on it as if it is news. BOOM! as the kids these days might say.

Consider the headline “Storm Still Haunts”, from the Republican National Convention. I can assure you that there were few, if any, Republicans who were thinking about Isaac other than the rain we ourselves experienced at random intervals. But to listen to the media, Isaac was a central focus days into the convention.

Here’s what I have no doubt happened as I overheard dozens of these conversations over four days.

Reporters chatting amongst themselves came up with that narrative. Then they shoved recorders into the faces of delegates from fly over country who’d never seen hipster reporters in skinny red jeans with rolled up cuffs, no socks with their dress shoes, and flannel plaid shirts in freaking August in Tampa, FL and the poor delegates were as agreeable as possible in order to get the reporter to go away.

Then the reporter ran back to the bathroom, joined in the circle, and banged out a story on his keyboard proclaiming that SPECTER OF KATRINA HAUNTS THE GOP AS ISAAC SPINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or some such.

I saw it in the media center. Reporters would whisper what if scenarios back and forth to each other, one sounded plausible, then they’d race out to ask delegates. And they needed to do something. Below is a four day stack of print media churned out by the various outlets. They had to fill it with something. They filled it mostly with conventional wisdom.

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That brings us back to the polls.

The media leans left. Put it to you this way, right of center reporters do not go to Republican conventions dressed as a whole host of reporters were dressed. Republicans understand “Sunday going to meeting” clothes.

And delegates at the RNC saw lots and lots of hipster reporters for major outlet.

These people have a vested interest in helping Barack Obama because they really do, in private, think Mitt Romney wants to prevent the use of the female uterus except by married heterosexual women of a certain age and they really do think that there are no major economic differences between Obama and Romney, or they prefer Obama’s vision for a dystopian utopia of gay marriage, abortion on demand, and high rates of government dependency by the middle class.

So suddenly they see a post-convention bounce for Barack Obama that has more to do with Bill Clinton than Barack Obama. After all, even these hipsters and their sage gurus of conventional wisdom panned Obama’s performance. They cannot credit the bounce as Bill Clinton’s bounce because he’s past. “Obama!” “Future!” “Obama’s Bounce! Pass me the lotion boys, I’ve got typing to do!!!!”

In the meantime, they get to largely ignore or completely gloss over the economic news of Friday that is still just sinking into the American conscience. In about seven days the polling will probably begin to reflect the deteriorating economic news and suddenly the headlines will proclaim Mitt Romney really is at war with women.

It is, after all, the conventional wisdom. Just go put your ear up to the door of the bathroom at the Politico and listen.

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COMMENTS

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  • commonsenseobserver

    Bill Clinton’s bounce or not, the Democrats had a bounce, and Team Romney has lost momentum and fails to inspire confidence. I think there’s something fundamentally flawed with our approach, something the Paul Ryan pick was supposed to have corrected but has remained in place.
    The lack of a bold contrast with the failures of Washington under the Obamacrats and a clear and coherent message of renewal and restoration. No real sense of a new direction, no sense that it is the right direction, and no sense what direction it is at all. Simply throwing out “change” can be very dangerous if you fail to define it, like Cameron’s Tories. Thatcher, Reagan, Clinton and even, to a certain extent, Bush, knew that. Only Obama could get away with “hope”.

  • mutantone

    The Republicans still have their Morals and Ethics intact, the democrats have lost all that they might have had by using Clinton, who lacks either Morals or ethics and the democrats just love that sort of politician in their party of Homosexuals and other ethically challenged, After all it Was Clinton talking to Kennedy saying that a “few years ago a boy like him would be carrying our bags”

  • coemgenus

    It’s too bad more people didn’t watch more of the Democratic National Convention. They would have seen a party dedicated to Abortion, Atheism, Sodomy and Anti-Semitism – all of which is perfectly fine with the decadent main stream media in this country.

  • http://www.lvjmusic.com lvjohnston

    Why watch the DNC convention when Hollywood covers all of those topics with their current prime time line-up?

  • jp1964

    I whole-heartedly agree. No amount of whining about WHY we are getting our butts handed to us by the Democrats is going to change the underlying fact that we are on trajectory to lose and an adjustment in strategy is called for. Whether it was Michelle Obama’s speech, Clinton’s speech, hurricane Isaac, or the price of tea in China, the conventions have passed and we are 5 points behind – to an incumbant. The precedents are not good. Romney/Ryan cannot win by relying on short term memories about Obama failures, they need to promote a forward-looking positive agenda. Unfortunately what we have seen so far are candidates with tails between their legs. The performance of both Romney and Ryan on national tv programs this past weekend was pathetic. They need to stand up and proudly proclaim what they stand for even if its not popular with democrats.

  • swi2522

    its time to hit the glass jaw president with some tough adds to expose him as the fraud we know him to be.
    are these poles similar to the economic data coming out of the white house? i believe they are and therefor think this whole bounce is a msm and white house fabrication in an attempt to suppress voters

  • swi2522

    i disagree they need to show obama as the evil socialist that he is. he is not a good guy

  • renl57

    The national bounce is not very significant, owing to the huge populations in states like California and the way the Electoral College works. Even if another million Californians decided after the DNC to vote for Obama, that doesn’t boost Obama’s Electoral Vote total at all–because he already had that state locked up.

    It’s the swing states that matter, and there the bounce does not seem to be as much.

    In the end, Romney’s hopes come down to two must-win states: Ohio and Florida. If Romney loses those, he cannot win.

    And it’s Ohio that concerns me the most. Obama’s auto bailout is popular in Ohio (and Michigan). Obama has hurt Romney there by claiming that Romney would have let GM cease operations if it couldn’t find private financing.

    Romney really has to counter that message in Ohio. Otherwise he will lose the state.

  • commonsenseobserver

    On the other hand, if he plays it well, he can win his home state as well.
    Looking at the bright side…

  • renl57

    Romney/Ryan have failed to connect their proposed economic plan to a lot of the specific problems we have today. Their plans sound like they just dusted off the GOP Platform from 12 years ago.

    That’s not how Reagan won in 1980 during THAT economic crisis. His plan was specifically targeted at the problems of 1980, not the problems of 1966 or 1952 or some other year, meaning that it was even a departure from past GOP platforms. Reagan didn’t just copy what Nixon did or what Gerald Ford did. And he made that clear to voters.

    Romney has so far not done that. Romney needs something new to deal with the problems of TODAY, not just the usual “cut taxes and drill” which could have been done in any year.

    Erick Erickson had suggested that Romney should propose to end “too big to fail” by breaking up the banks that otherwise would require bailouts. That’s the kind of dramatic departure from past GOP orthodoxy that would get headlines and break open this race.

    I have the same criticism of Romney that I have of Obama: Everybody says you’re so brilliant. OK, then come up with some brilliant ideas!

  • commonsenseobserver

    True. Regulatory reform is a very important issue, and Romney has yet to show how he would replace Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley, and reform the housing market
    Regarding entitlements, I think he’s fine, though I believe that once in office, he’ll have to tackle traditional FFS Medicare, premium support or not.
    On educational reform, he’s made some solid proposals, though he should highlight their differences from Obama’s policies, restrain the federal role, and consider the role of vocational education.
    He’s proposed retraining reform- he needs to elaborate on that.
    Same for trade. And spending cuts.
    Last but not least, even on the “older” issues like tax reform, healthcare reform, welfare reform, and energy independence, he does need to put forth substantive, concrete, and reasonably detailed policies. He’s failed to do that on most of them.
    But, of course, the core values of the Republican Party have always remained the same, and our policies have been focused on limited government and free enterprise for decades. Lower taxes and energy production are still important parts of any economic recovery package, which explains why they seem so boring and rehashed, but still work.

  • MiamiDave

    What concerns me is that within the sonding-board atmosphere the media has created, the story becomes all about the bounce, and not about the dismal job numbers– to the point where Americans find news about the miserable state of the Obama economy buried under mountains of breathless fluff-pieces about how Obama is pulling ahead. The Mainstream Media is wholly in the tank for the President, and they are playing this pretty perfectly in terms of ensuring that the entire conversation has shifted far away from the August job numbers.

  • Common_Cents

    Oh as soon as Romney is sworn in, the media will start reporting daily on how bad the economy is, and that Romney owns it from day 1. You know it will happen.

    WHEN will Republicans make a strategic coordinated plan to combat the hostile propaganda media?

  • backbencher

    Erick has it about right. The MSM is now beginning to drive the narrative of an inevitable Obama victory. This is apparently based solely on Obama’s post-convention bounce, which nearly everyone in the country knew was coming weeks ago. Yes, the Democrats arguably had a better convention than Republicans, and Bill Clinton helped Barack Obama more than Mitt Romney helped himself. Clinton made as good an argument to re-elect Obama as one person could possibly make, and that is going to be reflected in the polling over the next week or so.

    The Obama campaign and the MSM will use this favorable (but brief) polling data to declare the race in the bag for their guy, a tactic designed to dampen conservative enthusiasm and slow donations to the Romney-Ryan campaign. However, two things. One, just look at two polls released this morning – the ABC News/WaPo poll has Obama ahead by one point, 49% to Romney’s 48%, and Rasmussen has Obama up by three, 48% to Romney’s 45%. Despite MSNBC’s insistence to the contrary, both polls indicate this race is far from over. Two, wait until last Friday’s poor economic news begins to show up in the polling, which should be towards the end of this week and/or the beginning of next week. The media and the Obama campaign have done a good job of glossing over the economic realities facing this country, but even they won’t be able to tamp down what every American knows in their heart – that our economy is in tatters and the guy who wanted the job four years ago has done nothing to improve it.

    That is the message that Romney needs to focus like a laser on, and if he does that, nobody will be talking about Bill Clinton’s convention speech come November 6. We’ll all be talking about President-elect Mitt Romney’s victory speech.

  • mcb508

    This is all highly predictable. The media was in Obama’s pocket in 2008 and they are there now. People do not swing back and forth between polar opposites from day to day as the media would have us believe. People have lived through this administration for almost four years and know what is going on.

    Buck up people! The media are trying to discourage us. The American people are not dying to vote for a party that booed the inclusion of God in their platform and gave us this economy and Obamacare.

    People be prepared. Even though the debates are weeks away I can tell you now that Obama won all of the debates with Romney. Romney was not up to his game. The President was brilliant! Polling results will also reflect this. This is what the media will say even if Romney mops the floor with Obama. It is highly predictable. Think for yourself and don’t be swayed by the media.

  • jamesm

    Billy bounce! Looked like a Romper room at the DNC. Play time over. Let’s win this one for the Gipper. Bias and prejudice. Do we really expect anything else from liberals?

  • celador2

    I thought the RNC was well staged and had great inspiring speakers. DNC with its obnoxious social agenda was horrible and bloodcurdling. I had no idea anyone would pay much attention to Bill Clinton but thought they would tune in to hear Obama speak. I think Obama got a lot of viewers despite fewer viewers for convention than 2008. EE points out Clinton got the glow

    The back to back conventions, the one hour only prime time and rigged media bias stacked it all against the RNC. But what really hurt the most was the DNC walked into any RNC bounce by starting only a week later. The press rushed to change the subject from RNC lingering moments to DNC. They built anticipation for Bill and it was all positive. Then after the DNC they kept the ratings moving but there was no RNC to step into the DNC bounce and glow.

    RNC-Romney have made two vital mistakes–one was the back to back conventions in hurricane season with DNC allowed to go last for the lingering impression advantage. The second was to agree to the Presidentail debates format and mods.
    Elections used to be won with blood sweat and tears, up close and personal, on the trail. Now they are won in TV time with media pundits dciding for us who won a round here or there on the media’s turf. Does anyone doubt who will win the Presidential debates the media sponsor and narrate?
    Get on the road Mitt Romney, go where the cams do not and connect with Ohio voters in Hamilton, win them back one at a time.
    Everyone get yard signs and bumpers stickers, they really are impredsive!

  • patriotaz

    What’s really interesting is that before the DNC Convention the reporting about the voters was that the majority have already made up their mind and there is a small percentage on which the campaigns are focused. So explain please how there is a 5 point bounce for Obama? Really? Puleeeze!!!!

  • patriotaz

    Don’t get all hysterical now, the campaigning has really just begun. We have 50 some days remaining in which heavy campaigning and debates will be held. Don’t fret—Obama is toast.

  • renl57

    I’ll come back to what I said before:

    When Reagan took office, he didn’t try to fix the economy by just dusting off what Eisenhower and Nixon and Ford had done. And he didn’t run for the Presidency on that basis either.

    Romney wants tax reform to be revenue neutral (more or less) so it doesn’t explode the deficit. Then he can’t just be specific about tax cuts and be totally vague about how to broaden the tax base.

    I was hoping when Romney picked Ryan for running mate that he was going to start laying down the law about the economy. But he still acts like he can coast to victory.

  • justperhaps45

    Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron.
    In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”[especially in DC] – Friedrich Nietzsche

  • justperhaps45

    Romney must learn and practice what every successful seller knows.

    “It won’t sell unless it is personal.”

  • aeaeren

    Why should we replace Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley? Neither of these are actually doing any good as preventing this stuff from happening when the Gov’t who is supposed to be the enforcers of these great laws is WATCHING PORN instead of doing their jobs. In fact they are hampering business as it cost us more to hire the lawyers that are needed to implement this crap. As for Housing reform it can be done but first you have to do something with Freddie and Fannie and the Democrats that continue to protect it.

  • aeaeren

    He can answer the Ohio question with how long until GM is back in bankrupcy court? Everyone knows it is going to happen and soon. It’s the Zerg Overlords hoping to push it until after the election but it is going to happen.

  • aeaeren

    I don’t think the bad numbers have really shown up yet. Have you been to the grocery store lately? Used to be we would go in and spend 20 to 30 dollars on a few items, the other day it was 70ish. My mother made a commen about this also and she doesn’t pay attention to any politics whatsoever. We are headed to a dismal crash I think.

  • inovrmihd

    The “disma” jobs numbers don’t resonate. Do you think any but the most informed voters know whether 90k jobs is good or bad? Romney keeps referring to it as 8% unemployment , instead of using the “real number” of 15% when you count those that have given up looking for a job. Until Romney realizes that he has to hammer the point home that “1 of 7 people who want a job can’t get one”, this is not a winning issue.

  • writescribe

    Very well put, jp1964. The current “referendum” strategy does not seem to be working, even with dismal job creation numbers. The problem is I don’t think a positive, forward-looking approach is something that can be created instantaneously. If it really were that easy, the Republican House of Representatives wouldn’t be hovering at a 10% approval rating. These narratives take time to form, have to be tested, etc. Anyway, that’s just my two cents on your otherwise great observations.

  • http://www.lvjmusic.com lvjohnston

    I’ll take your word on that because I didn’t watch either portion – had better things to do that week. So, both ‘fictional’ and ‘non-fictional’ versions, eh? Wonder when they’ll get their ‘reality’ version out of development?

    Oh, wait, that would mean that they *had* a grasp of the subject of reality in the first place…

  • jp1964

    I agree. Romney is makng the argument that he would be a better manager of the exisitng government, with some policy adjustments. Indeed, he has been vague and projects flexibility on precisely what thos policy adjustments would be. While his managerial argument has some merit, it is not terrifically compelling even to the audience that is predisposed to vote for him. Obama, on the other hand, has sketched a picture of two alternative futures, and provided a more compelling argument for the audience predisposed to vote for him. In other words, these are asymmetric campaigns. My argument is not about who is right and who is wrong, simply that Obama’s campaign has been more effective so far. This is evidenced by the swing in the polls and, more importantly, by the reversal in the enthusiasm gap, with Democrats more energized than Republicans. I say again: a change in strategy is essential or this is over in a month.

  • golffan1963

    The Romney campaign did not allow the DNC to go last. It’s been longstanding tradition to have the party out of power go first, hence the RNC was first. In 2008, the GOP tried the same thing….the Republicans were in power at the time and so the DNC was first. The GOP then held their convention the next week, and had a similar–albeit temporary–effect.

    I agree about the debates and the moderators though.

  • rightlane1111

    If anyone has read Drudge today…it appears that there is more going on than e-mail with Axelrod…i.e., Thugs strong arm polling data. Or better yet…which shows that this race is not even close. Obama wins by one percent in heavily DEMOCRATIC districts. I have posted this on several other blogs…but this needs to be looked at and investigated. This is how Obama will get in.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=GqMVxeZhflI&feature=player_embedded

  • commonsenseobserver

    Then address those problems.
    I like Jen Rubin’s view of the race.

  • aeaeren

    I can’t say I disagree with Rubin. He does need to address the what I would do different but the only thing is no matter what he says he is going to be hammered by the media and by the One who right now isn’t saying what he would do differently but now we have the whole double standard thing.

    Romney is playing it safe and hopeing for a anyone but Barack vote and the debates and I think he is winning but he could be crushing if he would run this campaign right.