FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR
Quinnipiac Proves It’s Really Over (In An Imaginary World)!
If Dems in 2012 Are A Bigger Percentage of The Vote Than Dems in 2008, Stick A Fork In Mitt Romney
The Cheerleaders cheer, the bandwagon trundles forward, the sea levels decline and !EVERYONE HAS AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE! The GOP has no reason to continue on. The O has manfully penetrated 50% in three vital and critical and important and game-changing states! You can read about every pulsating, pounding punditgasm in this morning’s Business Insider!
The polls show Obama with his biggest advantage yet in all three states, leading Romney by 9 points in Florida (53-44), 10 points in Ohio (53-43), and 12 points in Pennsylvania (54-42). Combined, the three states hold 67 electoral college votes, making it difficult for either candidate to win the election without taking at least two out of three.
What isn’t explained is who was actually called in each of these states. Jim Geraghty tells us how to dial up an Axelrod-Compliant Polling Sample™ below.
Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
The technique applied in all three samples has been to knock down GOP participation and replace them with independents. Romney is currently getting twice as large a margin amongst Republicans as Independents. That drops him almost ½ a point from how well he would do against a 2008 turnout model for every Percent the electorate is swapped from GOP to independent.
This brings us to a larger point about the polling of the 2012 race up to this point. Polls that assume a Dem Electorate based on the +8D 2008 turn-out advantage also give Barack Obama a degree of separation in all three of these states. It’s more in the ballpark of six points. I don’t think BHO is that far ahead in the battleground states, but I can at least understand the methodology and respect the fact that the pollsters used a traceable set of actual data.
If I were to publish my very own RMJ Marketing Right-Wing Hack Propaganda Poll™ I could also base this on the 2004 Presidential Election actual data and hypothesize a R+5 electorate. According to Jay Cost, this wouldn’t be hard. Most polls assume 83% of Dems are pro-Obama, and that 82% of GOPers are pro-Mitt. The Independents are basically a 50/50 split.
In 2008, that would give us the following Obama Vote Pct: (39%Dem * 83%Pro-Obama) + (30%Ind * 50%Pro-Obama) + (31% GOP * 18%Pro-Obama) = 53.0 % of the vote.
In 2004, that would give us the following Obama Vote Pct: (35%Dem * 83% Pro-Obama) + (25%Ind * 50% Pro-Obama) + (40% GOP * 18% Pro-Obama) = 48.8% of the vote.
So if we hypothesize a split between 2004 and 2008 we get a D +1.5 Electorate. This gives us the following Obama Vote PCT: (37% * 83% Pro-Obama) + (27.5% Ind * 50% Pro-Obama) + (35.5% GOP * 18% Pro-Obama) = 51.3% of the vote.
This means what I wrote two months ago; after two conventions and a few hundred journalistic obituaries of the !DOOMED! Romney-Ryan Presidential Campaign still holds true. Obama has a slight advantage. If Romney can bread-truck him either debate, this election could swing like The Happy Hooker. This week’s Q-Polls were an exercise in propaganda worthy of Joey Izuzu.