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Quinnipiac Proves It’s Really Over (In An Imaginary World)!

If Dems in 2012 Are A Bigger Percentage of The Vote Than Dems in 2008, Stick A Fork In Mitt Romney

By: Repair_Man_Jack (Diary)  |  September 26th, 2012 at 12:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Quinnipiac Has Crossed-Over. They Believe! (HT: Moe Lane)

The Cheerleaders cheer, the bandwagon trundles forward, the sea levels decline and !EVERYONE HAS AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE! The GOP has no reason to continue on. The O has manfully penetrated 50% in three vital and critical and important and game-changing states! You can read about every pulsating, pounding punditgasm in this morning’s Business Insider!

The polls show Obama with his biggest advantage yet in all three states, leading Romney by 9 points in Florida (53-44), 10 points in Ohio (53-43), and 12 points in Pennsylvania (54-42). Combined, the three states hold 67 electoral college votes, making it difficult for either candidate to win the election without taking at least two out of three.

What isn’t explained is who was actually called in each of these states. Jim Geraghty tells us how to dial up an Axelrod-Compliant Polling Sample™ below.

Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.

The technique applied in all three samples has been to knock down GOP participation and replace them with independents. Romney is currently getting twice as large a margin amongst Republicans as Independents. That drops him almost ½ a point from how well he would do against a 2008 turnout model for every Percent the electorate is swapped from GOP to independent.

This brings us to a larger point about the polling of the 2012 race up to this point. Polls that assume a Dem Electorate based on the +8D 2008 turn-out advantage also give Barack Obama a degree of separation in all three of these states. It’s more in the ballpark of six points. I don’t think BHO is that far ahead in the battleground states, but I can at least understand the methodology and respect the fact that the pollsters used a traceable set of actual data.

If I were to publish my very own RMJ Marketing Right-Wing Hack Propaganda Poll™ I could also base this on the 2004 Presidential Election actual data and hypothesize a R+5 electorate. According to Jay Cost, this wouldn’t be hard. Most polls assume 83% of Dems are pro-Obama, and that 82% of GOPers are pro-Mitt. The Independents are basically a 50/50 split.

In 2008, that would give us the following Obama Vote Pct: (39%Dem * 83%Pro-Obama) + (30%Ind * 50%Pro-Obama) + (31% GOP * 18%Pro-Obama) = 53.0 % of the vote.

In 2004, that would give us the following Obama Vote Pct: (35%Dem * 83% Pro-Obama) + (25%Ind * 50% Pro-Obama) + (40% GOP * 18% Pro-Obama) = 48.8% of the vote.

So if we hypothesize a split between 2004 and 2008 we get a D +1.5 Electorate. This gives us the following Obama Vote PCT: (37% * 83% Pro-Obama) + (27.5% Ind * 50% Pro-Obama) + (35.5% GOP * 18% Pro-Obama) = 51.3% of the vote.

This means what I wrote two months ago; after two conventions and a few hundred journalistic obituaries of the !DOOMED! Romney-Ryan Presidential Campaign still holds true. Obama has a slight advantage. If Romney can bread-truck him either debate, this election could swing like The Happy Hooker. This week’s Q-Polls were an exercise in propaganda worthy of Joey Izuzu.

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  • http://libertynews.com/ mbecker908

    Good stuff RMJ. We need to keep hammering this crap every day.

    The “electorate” is dispirited because of what they’re being fed, not only by the media-that-used-to-be-mainstream but by conservative whiners who are passing for pundits.

    We need to be shining a bright light on them because like cockroaches they fear the light.

  • jaykali

    Do we have proof that polling affects voter turnout? I just wonder if it will be a wash. Might some ppl stay home if they think ‘Obama’ has it in the bag? I mean doesn’t the opposition have the advantage since they are more motivated?

    I do worry that these polls are hurting Romney’s chances bc you have the ‘inevitability’ factor making ppl not so excited. But I don’t know for sure. I would prob rather have arrogant Obama over sober-minded Obama if Romney was up 3 points.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Axelrod certainly believes this works. He actually went after Gallup over how they were sampling. The Dem Professionals are very convinced this is an effective form of psy-ops/information warfare.

  • kentucky

    Where did Cost get his R+5 turnout number for 2004? An even split at 37% for each party is all I can find. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

  • WA_Cowboy

    I think the R+5 is limited to the swing states in this particular poll. Nationally, it was even.

  • septembergurl

    So yeah, I do not believe in conspiracies or blaming the media. However…

    I recall Gibbs or some other flack telling us to ignore the national polls and focus on the swing states. And like as if by magic!, the swing states suddenly show big Obama leads. While the tracking national polls show a very close race.

    Now, I believe Obama has improved his standing in the swing states over the past few weeks, by a few points. For example Ras shows his approval in the swing states is now 50/50. So yes, the polls are accurate to that extent, that they show a trend that is bad for Romney.

    But that’s all they show. The huge leads in Q polls today are obviously the result of oversampling Dems and Inds at the expense of Rs. These polls are not wrong, but they are inaccurate, is the way I would put it.

    If anything I see a desire to exaggerate Obama’s improving position in the swing states to counteract the coming shift towards Romney in the national tracking polls. In Oct they change their methodology slightly — Gallup goes to LVs, and Rasmussen begins including leaners in the daily poll. Gallup would move a few points toward Romney. for ras, today’s daily tracking including leaners is R48, O46. (without leaners it is a tie 46/46).

    Though it does not get as much attention as POLLS DOOM ROMNEY, this slight lead for Romney nationally reflects Romney’s winning groups who voted for Obama in 2008, veterans, middle class voters and rural voters. As the election nears the remaining undecideds would tend to swing toward Romney. That’s conventional wisdom, late deciders going against the incumbent, but also true.

    In fact, I am pretty confident that Romney will win the popular vote. The problem is that if the election were held today, Romney would win the popular vote, but Obama would win the EC.

    The EC math is daunting for Romney. He can win the EC — he can win without Ohio, or Virginia – but he is not getting enough support from independents and suburban voters. He can change that, but time is running out.

  • conservativemusician

    Rush is absolutely nuking this issue today on all the phony polls oversampling Dems. The only poll worth anything to me is Rasmussen which shows the race tied today and with leaners, Romney lead 48% – 46%. Gallup is pretty similar to Rasmussen. All the rest is just noise and designed to depress us and influence our base to stay home on election.

    I’m feeling better each day about our chances. Everyone just needs to stay positive and motivated and not let the propaganda polls get to us.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Romney has lost to Obama three times and Election Day is still over a month away. I suspect he will bat under .250 yet still be inaugurated.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    A certain rooster has been crowing for 11 years that the best way to prevent such a liberal media strategy from working is for conservatives to BUY, and populate positions in, the media. And when we do, unlike Fox News, we need to chunk the “fair and balanced” definition of accepting the narratives of the NYT.

  • tngal

    Here’s Romney’s latest ad. Its called “Too Many Americans”. I’m not sure what its trying to convey but its not excitement. Yes there is dejection, and despair at being without jobs etc…but remember the mood four years ago was much the same that’s why the mods voted for Hope and Change. They wanted hope, some guy said I’ll give you hope, and he got their vote. This ad from Romney does not scream hope, or enthusiasm, or wonder, or awe, or anything positive for that matter. I realize it shouldn’t be like this, but the election is a personality contest. And Romney needs to bring passion to something.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HjDCHbtXHQ&feature=player_embedded

  • littlehouse18

    “So yeah, I do not believe in conspiracies or blaming the media. However…I recall Gibbs or some other flack telling us to ignore the national polls and focus on the swing states. And like as if by magic!, the swing states suddenly show big Obama leads. ”
    Excellent point! Also, here in the trenches in Northern Va suburbs, I am seeing plenty of enthusiasm for Romney and a lot of undecideds. That doesn’t support the polling theme.

  • mcb508

    The poll shows Obama leading Romney by 10% in Ohio and 9% in Florida. Obama won Ohio by 4.6% in 2008 and Florida by 2.8% in 2008. So they expect us to believe that Obama is twice as popular today in Ohio than he was in 2008 and three times as popular in Florida than in 2008. Really? I don’t think so.

  • tnfriendofcoal101368

    Heck GC, the Sulzberger family would sell the NY Times tomorrow; given the alternative is quickly becoming “get a job” given the Times increasingly difficulties in producing the revenues needed to support their Robin Leach lifestyles.

  • Dave_A

    The question is the EC, in the end…

    After all, 2000 could just as easily happen to us (or happen to them again)….

  • jaykali

    Who tho is being effected? I mean the people who read this blog certainly aren’t. I would think most Republicans are very motivated. So we are talking ab independents leaning toward Romney are persuaded that the ‘group’ is going to Obama and therefore stay at home? Is that the effect?