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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

The Books Weren’t Cooked. Obama’s Recovery Is Just Crap.

I don’t think it is healthy for conservatives to scream that both the polls and the jobs report are cooked. I think we can agree there may be statistical errors in both, but I think Phil Klein has the best take on why the jobs number may not be terribly off, but why it is not a good thing. And I think instead of screaming conspiracy, we should explain what is going on and how bad it is.

As Phil notes, the reason for the drop in unemployment is not that people have suddenly gone out and found a bunch of new full time jobs. It’s that part time workers have given up looking for full time work and are now considering their part time jobs to be full time.

a more detailed look at these numbers shows that 572,000 — or about 67 percent — of the reported job gains that contributed to the reduction in the unemployment rate came from workers who had to settle for part time work. BLS explains that, “The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.”

In other words, Barack Obama has failed again to make eye contact with the problem and now his administration is trying to spin these numbers as good instead of actually looking at the jobs people are suddenly considering full time.

Flipping burgers at McDonalds on a part time basis has suddenly become a job Barack Obama wants to brag about as a full time success story.

There’s the issue. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s crap.

COMMENTS

  • naraht

    Now we just have to figure out a better way.

  • jamesm

    Crock-a doodle do! BLS economists donate to Obama.
    http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

  • craigbardo

    Well Erick, I’m glad you’re confident that an administration with a proclivity toward the authoritarian, more czars than cabinet members, numerous executive orders, a federal bureaucracy that is naturally supportive of a big government politician, two senior economists at BLS who have contributed to the Obama campaign and a media that has assiduously covered every failing of this president, hasn’t cooked the books with this jobs report, neither have his media allies manipulated polling.

    Because you’re confident, I can rest easy!

  • deano64

    Yup just a bunch of hamburger flipper jobs. Wasn’t the media in 2003 running around talking about how jobs created under the GWB administration job were just a bunch hamburger flipper jobs? Maybe they will report the same thing about this jobs report. Haha!

  • lineholder

    Just a thought…one of the things I’ve learned in business management courses is that employers usually calculate employees in terms of FTEs or full-time employees (at 40 hours per week) If employers are reporting FTEs but job positions are part-time, wouldn’t this account for at least some of the discrepancy?

    Also, a question for legal eagles…how does Obamacare’s definition of “full time” as being equal to or greater than 30 hours per week impact other labor laws indicating that full-time is equal to or greater than 40 hours per week? Will this have an impact that could require employers who have employees working more than 30 hours per week to pay OT for hours worked over 30? Or would other laws have to change for this to occur?

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Of course, just like EE doesn’t know who is ahead or behind, neither does he know whether the BLS books are cooked. Neither can he explain how 500,000 that were already working part-time now get counted as “new” part-timers? But THE most important message for all of us is that we dare not claim that the BLS books and/or polls are cooked.

  • scooterj2003

    Flipping burgers at McDonalds on a part time basis has suddenly become a
    job Barack Obama wants to brag about as a full time success story.

    Confused by this. Are you implying that flipping burgers at McDonalds on a part time basis is not a job, or is a job not worth counting? Does the employee not get paid? Does he not pay taxes on his income? Does the company not benefit from his work? Do customers not benefit from his work? Does his work not benefit the economy as a whole?

  • lineholder

    The BLS unemployment data of 7.8% unemployment is a bit misleading, because traditionally speaking Americans are accustomed to evaluating employment in a full-time employed context.

    I think Erick is simply trying to draw attention to the fact that unemployment data that was announced today isn’t quite what it seems to be. He isn’t making any sort of indictment on citizens who are employed part-time.

  • lineholder

    scooter, very quickly and then I have to go to work at my part-time job (LOL)….

    Erick isn’t indicting people who accept job positions part-time. He’s indicting policies that are being put into place at the federal level that could cause part-time employment to become the new “norm” for Americans.

    We can do better than this. Much better. We have families who need for us to do better than this, scooter. If we can rein government and open up the doors for an environment that encourages growth and development of new businesses.

    Romney/Ryan could open those doors for us as Americans.

  • dragan

    I see the minimum wage McJobs to be the norm for the past 10 years since our corporations undertook massive offshoring of jobs. I dont see it as a Republican or a Democrat problem. I dont think it is right to lambast Obama on this one and continue to foolishly expect that in a Romney Administration this would not be the case. Corporations would hire only if THEY see demand growth. It does not matter which administration is in place or what tax policies are in place. Just as an example, Apple has most of its employees in China. If we give Apple a tax break they will gladly take it and use the money to build more factories in China. Just a thought. In this globalized world, jobs are created ONLY where labor costs are the lowest. By labor costs, I dont just mean wages but wages per unit of productivity

  • woggie

    what matters is:

    http://youtu.be/oIry7n57oLY

  • scooterj2003

    [i]Now[/i] classified? Surely you must recall that it was also classified as such in George W. Bush’s America as well as in Bill Clinton’s America and Ronald Reagan’s America — when it was politically convenient for them to do so.

  • MikeW

    By the way. this is on the same page as polling. Let’s not forget, 2008 saw the lowest number of white voters at the polls in recorded history. Whites make up 74% of the voting electorate. I’m guessing we won’t see this kind of white apathy in November.

  • fightnright

    Working in the fast food industry part time *is* an excellent
    introduction to business as an entry-level job or for students, someone
    with highly specific time slot needs, or to supplement family income.
    These jobs rarely pay a living wage, and in a dynamic economy, most
    working folks see them as a means to an end, rather than an end in
    themselves.

    In addition, most people would prefer their career mobility path to be
    climbing upward, instead of down. Considering that, maybe you should
    ask some former full time business managers and owners, IT people,
    retail consultants, construction workers, and others who now are
    collecting only short hourly wages w/o benefits at fast-food outlets
    their opinion on your original questions.

  • Viet71

    I smell a BLS rat. To quote:

    BLS explains that, “The number of persons employed part time for
    economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time
    workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September.
    These individuals were working part time because their hours had been
    cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.”

    Point 1: The new Walmart employee hired to work 20 hours per week has the same “job gain status” as the Apple new hire employed to work 40 hours per week. Apples and oranges. BS. completely ignores street-level reality.

    Point 2: If an individual went from full-time to part-time employee because his or her hours were cut back, he or she represents zero job growth or decline.

    American worship at the altar of economists. Might as well pray to fortune tellers, who as a group are likely more unbiased, informed, and honest.

  • mema

    The numbers probably aren’t cooked, they are just faulty because they do not sample a large number of households, and the numbers do not look right for the rest of the economic data. The economy itself is probably changing, and probably not in a good way.
    One report mentioned that U6 didn’t change, which makes sense. Another article mentioned part-time and people working on their own, which makes sense as well. The problem is that people that work on their own are opting to hire part-time help, or consultants rather then hire full-time. That is why the jobs number is bad even at 7.8% once you look at it closer.

  • synergist777

    I don’t recall that, myself.

  • jamesm

    Where’s Breitbart when we need him!
    .
    Yes. Lots stayed home not willing to vote for McCain. That won’t happen this election. In regards to the BLS they are using a “phone survey” i.e polling.
    Conservatives should have thrashed out these media pollsters and BLS issues in the past. We have waited too long and have been slack.

  • drfredc

    The DNC has padded the employed by counting all the temporary election goons the SEIU has hired for $11 an hour to harrass GOP candidates all over the place. Gave’m Obama phones too… They’ll probably be adding busloads of paid folks to the employment roles that will head from state to state for day of registration voting. These jobs will go away in a month… Once they’ve served their purpose… Vote early, Vote often… That’s their motto…

  • MikeW

    Missed to be sure. I haven’t seen Unmasked but it’s on my shortlist.

  • http://hehasfailed.wordpress.com/ HopeHeFails

    It’s funny how Obama’s ‘crap’ always spins in a perfectly timed way that makes him look good.

  • Common_Cents

    on top of that, they SUDDENLY did this in ONE MONTH? There is NO trend over time that this is even happening. Plus the participation rate didn’t move.

  • ctredstater

    Bingo. it wasn’t just done in one step – but incrementally over time. gimme a break.
    very “high minded” to suggest that this is some monstrous coincidence. for me, I just don’t think it is going to work. that old joke. who are you going to believe – me or your lying eyes?
    outside of the beltway media and the cocktail lounges of Manhattan and Cambridge, I doubt there is a lot of spontaneous celebrating going on in the country about this news.

  • ctredstater

    at this rate. GDP will be minus two percent and unemployment will be at 3.8 percent in time for the 2014 midterms

  • pekka2009

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BX0EMau8GZY good video

  • edsheppa

    Folks should not be so quick to pooh pooh concern the household survey was gamed. The 870K jobs is extrapolated from interviewing 60K households. There are 150M households. Reversing the extrapolation says the 870K is inferred from an increase of about 350 jobs amongst the 60K. I doubt the phone numbers called are state secrets inaccessible by partisans who might cross reference with campaign records and find some 100 or so confirmed Democrats who might add 3.5 jobs each. And I’m sure the list couldn’t be influenced in any way like guiding it toward such partisan households. Or, more subtly, toward households that might be known to have a new job or two, say as employees in some Democrat campaign.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Everything in the BLS jobs report except the headline number is mediocre at best, signalling our sub-par recovery is continuing a distrubing trend:
    - Employment in the establishment survey came in under expectations at a mere 114,000. How does declining jobs from August, and August declining from July and
    only 114k jobs get a headline of a “positive jobs report”?
    - It gets it from a lower unemployment rate, but we see that for the household survey to justify that a huge 2/3′s of the jobs added were part-time jobs going to people looking for full-time employment.

    So a bad employment report is reported as ‘good’ because of a headline number that is skewed by a highly anomalous underlying data point, one that it actually a disturbing negative trend: a lot of people are being forced into lower paying part-time jobs instead of the fulltime jobs they really want.

    We need to not miss the forest for a few particular trees. In this recovery, we are still down 5 million jobs below where we were at the begin. We have over 25 million Americans who are either unemployed, under-employed, or simply gave up on looking for jobs and are not counted in the unemployment numbers. The ‘progress’ we are making is too little, too slow.

    America can and should be doing a lot better.

  • Xasteius

    Or maybe that Obamacare considers 30 hours or more a week a ‘full-time employee’….

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    The employment survey was weak – 114,000 is a weak, below expected
    number. We’d have seen a selloff on this report had the headline
    unemployment not done what it did.

    But it gets worse: The household survey had lots of jobs in sept
    created. but this is a poll, and 2/3rds of the jobs in sept be
    PART-TIME. Huh?!?! Since when does 2/3rds of our jobs come from parttime
    work. Is this the ‘new normal’?

    Whether it was intended or not, the ‘headline’ belies a weak employment
    report, and its the weakness which matches up with weak manufacturing
    data, and the global recessionary trends. Nothing great is happening on
    jobs and for Obama to tout it is actually an embarrassment. Kind of like spiking the ball over killing Bin Laden the week before our ambassador is killed in a pre-planned AQ attack.

  • commonsenseobserver

    I think there’s a simple question that can trip up Obama-Biden.
    “Mr. President, how do you think jobs are created?”
    And Obama will talk about investment by Washington and all..

  • Jabba the Tutt

    Here’s the problem with arguing against “the books have been cooked”. Limbaugh predicted that the regime would find a way to get the unemployment number below 8% before the election. Santelli also predicted this and many, many others also predicted this. And Shazaam! the unemployment rate was reported at 7.8%.

    The number of new jobs created in September are lower than August. The number of new jobs created in August are lower than July. But the miracle of this regime, unemployment plummeted.

    And a third point, Obama personally and his regime are pathological liars. They will do anything to win the election. Why is it not possible that they cooked the books? How else do you reduce the number of jobs and reduce the unemployment rate at the same time?

  • gator_hoo

    I don’t understand why it is a conspiracy theory to claim that an administration which has repeatedly been proven to lie to the American people is again lying to the American people.

  • dynamo

    What’s amazing is the level of idiocy displayed by you, cowboy, with your junior high conspiracy theories. What’s next? Erick’s going to vote for Obama? Come on, you know you are thinking that …

  • Dave_A

    Actually, in economics, inflation is an increase in the supply of money without an equal-or-greater increase in the demand for the same.

    The EFFECT of this is a loss of money-value, which CAN lead to higher prices for goods and services.

    However, simply because the price of one or more goods/services went up does not mean the price-increase is inflation.

    The fact that we use aggregate consumer prices to approximate rates of inflation does not change this definition.

    Due to this specific definition, if purchasing power is falling, we are likely dealing with non-inflationary cost increases… Or inflation of labor-prices (wages) is lagging inflation of consumer goods…

    At present, it’s the first, not the second.

  • Dave_A

    Ok.

    Simply put, the concern of the FED is keeping the economy out of deflation. Without an increasing money-supply, we will never see an increase in the size of the economy. They are joined at the hip (inflation and growth).

    Job-creation is depressed by the most antibusiness administration in recent history. Not by the action of the Fed.

  • Dave_A

    I said that SOME of the people over-counted by U6 will never return to the labor force…

    The 100% disabled… Chronic welfare-abusers… Career Criminals…..

    I also said that in order to maintain the integrity of the definition, we cannot create exceptions for ‘this time’ and start counting people who are economically out of the labor force because ‘my magic 8-ball says they may return to it in better times’.

    We have the Labor Force Participation Rate to beat like a drum on the subject of discouraged workers.

    But that doesn’t make U6 any less a BS stat.