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FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Obama And The Triumph Of Cargo Cult Economics

Over the past four years the American middle class has suffered an unprecedented decline. At this writing the labor for participation rate is the lowest since 1981 and for men it is the lowest since that statistic has been gathered. Household income has plummeted by 7.3% equating to over $4,000 per family. The number of persons on food stamps has nearly doubled in a mere four years. The unemployment rate continues to decline only by statistical legerdemain and reducing the number of people actively looking for work by demoralizing them.

Instead of taking firm action to preserve the middle class, the Obama regime has engaged in a full frontal assault on the middle class in order to reduce it to a state of government dependency.

Our home loans are no longer held by local banks, they are secured by the United States government. Superficially private sector jobs in industry sectors chosen to be winners by government bureaucrats only exist because of extravagant government subsidies… and some of those jobs being created in foreign countries. The agricultural sector is being wildly distorted in the service of ethanol production. Students are being inveigled into taking out loans to acquire an education that is either irrelevant or superfluous in the modern world (really, a master’s degree in jazz flute? What did you think was going to happen?)

As we’ve chronicled over the past month, the economic strategy pursued by the Obama regime is nothing more that cargo cult economics (here | here | here | here). Simply put, the regime has attempted to bolster the middle class using exactly the same method that Neolithic South Pacific islanders have used to continue receiving food and supplies from the United States. Instead of building a bamboo C-47 they are creating the trappings of a middle class society, e.g. a college education, a job, etc., without strengthening the underlying economy which supports it.

One of the centerpieces of the Obama strategy was using the laudable goal of providing medical coverage for everyone as a stalking horse for a federal takeover of roughly one fifth of the nation’s economy.

The scheme was rather elegant: require all larger employers to provide a health care package in conformance with the law or pay a fine and dump the employee on a government run “exchange.” The end game for Obamacare has always been the bankrupting of private insurance providers and ushering in a “single payer” system.

Just as with the cargo cult mentality that has led to the funding of performing arts centers in dystopic mill towns, the downfall of the scheme lies in the fact that virtually no one involved in the development of said scheme had actually worked in the private economy. Enter bottom line economics, stage right:

The owner of Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants is putting more workers on part-time status in a test aimed at limiting costs from President Barack Obama’s health care law.

Darden Restaurants Inc. declined to give details but said the test is only in four markets across the country. The move entails boosting the number of workers on part-time status, meaning they work less than 30 hours a week.

Under the new health care law, companies with 50 or more workers could be hit with fines if they do not provide basic coverage for full-time workers and their dependents.

Starting Jan. 1, 2014, those penalties and requirements could significantly boost labor costs for some companies, particularly in low-wage industries such as retail and hospitality, where most jobs don’t come with health benefits.

Darden, which operates more than 2,000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada, employs about 180,000 people.

Raise your hand if you didn’t see this coming. Didn’t think so.

This decision, if copied by other businesses will have the interesting result of making the federal government, by way of either Medicaid, insurance exchanges, or Medicare, the source of health insurance for the overwhelming majority of Americans. But unlike the plan passed by Democrat chicanery there will be no offsetting revenue stream from penalties on companies who do not provide insurance.

While the savings in health care costs is the driver for the change, in an environment with a surplus of qualified labor changing the work force to a primarily part-time one brings other savings and cost avoidance.

In the economy created by the current regime, an employer does not have to compete for workers. To the contrary, it is the quintessential buyer’s market for employers. Because of the economy, most job applicants do not have the flexibility to walk away from either a job or a job offer. At the same time, the economy is creating incentives for employers to reduce all benefits and amenities associated with maintaining a workforce.

For those who think part-time only applies to restaurant workers, think again. Look at the history of mortgage brokers who have moved from being bank employees to largely independent contractors. Is there any reason IT jobs can’t be part-time? Retail? Nurses? Teachers? There is no logical reason for a company to retain any of these positions as full-time jobs.

That will be the legacy of the the Obama regime. A middle class that is a fraction of the size the past century has led us to expect. An economic environment where a worker must hold at least two jobs in order to survive, where sick leave and vacation days are unheard of, and where health care will be unavailable to most people simply because the government cannot provide it for everyone who demands it.

COMMENTS

  • Tbone

    Back in the good old days, socialists just wanted to raise taxes so that they could buy the votes from the scums and bums to stay in power.

    When that quit working, they decided to borrow the money to buy the votes.

    Now, they have hit upon an even simpler solution, they just print the money to buy the votes.

    What could go wrong with that?

  • AceInTX

    You nailed it here Streiff…

    “they are creating the trappings of a middle class society, e.g. a
    college education, a job, etc., without strengthening the underlying
    economy which supports it.”

    I was thinking during on of the recent debates when Obama was touting the need for the federal government to put more funds into higher education that it’s exceedingly stupid to put more limited funds into creating more college graduates when college graduates currently entering the work force have NO JOBS to move into….

    Why Romney didn’t pounce on THAT point when Obama kept coming back to it over and over again is beyond me.

    It’s the only thing I can find to criticize Romney for in his Awesome performance in the debates so I don’t want to beat him up too much for not picking up on it, but I will say…I was screaming it at my TV as I watched Obama keep mouthing it like a mantra.

    Here’s hoping he does pick up on it the next round.

  • rkcurtin

    And yet we still let more people into this country (including legally) when we don’t have work for those here. It is long overdue to cull out the those who would make this country a better place from those who would make the USA just another place to park.

  • jpkoch

    I’ve worked in IT as a network admin for a decade; before that as a PC/network tech. I’ve seen the commodization of IT skills up close. The income of the technical side of things has decreased mainly due to improved technology. Virtualization, the decrease in hardware costs and the introduction of inexpensive new network technologies such as MPLS have allowed for IT Managed Services firms to grow. Even newer technolgies such as Software as a Service hosted by managed Cloud service firms give CEOs and CIOs options as far as IT expenses are concerned. The largest fixed cost of any enterprise is labor and its associated expenses.
    Therefore with expected sky-rocketing labor mandates via ObamaCare and other programs, it is not difficult to see many corporations looking to managed services both stateside and overseas as a way of eliminating these costs. As result of this trend will be lower demand of skilled network and system admins, storage sepcialists, etc… Yes, there will always be entry level positions opened for helpdesk and desktop specialists. But, these will be low to mid level wage positions. Most firms are already finding out that it makes little sense to maintain traditional software systems like email and messaging. Once the costs of maintaining ERP systems hits a certain level, we will see even large systems like Oracle, SAP, and iSeries services being sent to 3rd party vendors.
    The current administration is doing everything possible to accelerate a trend that is eroding what should be decent careers. Technology will always evolve and change careers. But, what this President and his party are doing is destroying large swaths of jobs. It won’t just be in IT. Accounting, Financial Services, and Engineering are just a few careers that will be fleeing to safer harbors.

  • bs61

    As a former IT worker who trained my 3 Indian replacements, that market is gone to India, Manila, etc. Our bosses got big huge bonuses to off-shore. And unfortunately, under Bush and Obama, I’m making 35K less per year. Which means I had to move in with family. Sorry, still extremely bitter that our whole company closed or was taken over. About 175K employees

  • bobmark

    New deal I’ve been seeing is “contractor”. They W-9 us (helpdesk and desktop support) and make us resposible for our own taxes and bene’s. MCP’s (certs) ain’t worth spit.

  • streiff

    that is a very dangerous game for a company to play as if they give you policies to follow, etc., you could easily be classified as an employee by the IRS. This push back against “contractor” status is widespread and has been pretty successful.
    For instance, http://goo.gl/QFocB

  • celador2

    Seniors on fixed incomes suffer more than anyone when the interest rates on CDs are kept low by the Fed so that the 3-6% is long gone. har, The Fed will keep rates low under 1% until 2015 even if Inflation threatens. They find more inflation acceptable with Obama in White House. Micromanaging an Obama planned economy means everyone with CDs gets interest well below 1% for perhaps years to come. All savers suffer.
    Paul Ryan the GOP VP nominee has criticized the Fed for its artifically low rates. Romney has signaled he wants a new chair of the Federal Reserve. As one pundit wrote, maybe Krauthamer,
    The Fed is now the Fourth Branch of government.

    Its policies of low interest rates are a headache for all savers for sure.
    It is possible Obama has less problem helping a needy saver applying for welfare than he does restoring higher rates so that saver can surviive without federal assistance.