# It’s Ground Game Time For The Win In 2012

The Goal Is Within Sight

Not a lot remains about which to philosophize. Two weeks remain, the debates have finished and Campaign 2012 is down to the brass tacks of game-day execution. Having read everyone’s polls until I’m sick of the concept, I can boil election 2012 down to the following if/then/else statement.

If turnout >= D+5, then Barack Obama is re-elected
Else, America is liberated.

We should be about to capture the big prize, but another question is what happens to the Senate. With Romney’s surge, this has swung back in our favor as well. Jim O’ Sullivan of The American Thinker tells us that at present, we should expect wins in NE, WI, and ND. He says we are likely to win MN and NV. After this, it gets more tenuous. FL and VA are day-to-day. MA, CN, and (amazingly) MO are still long shot possibilities. Against this, the GOP loses a seat in ME and probably MA.

When I read this between the lines, I get the following logic table.
If turnout >= D+8, GOP gets net +1.
If turnout >= D+5, GOP gets net +3
If turnout >=D +2 GOP gets net +5
If Turnout >=D-1 GOP takes +8.

Just so I state the obvious and put it out there for all to see, you have a vote concerning what that turnout looks like. In 2008, we saw what D+8 looked like. In 2010, we saw how things looked at D+0. Here’s how we can make 2012 look more like 2010 than 2008.

We have the enthusiasm to make this happen. Ace of Spades tells us that Gallup has surveyed party affiliation from 1-21 Oct. Here’s what they got: Gallup survey of party affiliation preference for 1-21 Oct: Dem 34.3% GOP 34.1% Ind 31.6%. That’s right where we need to be to get the Senate. The missing ingrediant here is YOU

So how do we put Romney solidly over the top and take the Senate? We go to work on the Independent vote. Walk precincts. Work phone banks. Display yard signs, bumper stickers, Romney/Ryan bath toys, et al. You don’t have to get in anybody’s face, pace Obama, but letting America know who’s team you’re proud to support overcomes any potential “Shy Tory” effect that would prevent a wavering moderate from voting against Barack Obama.

• Repair_Man_Jack

OK, so that could be taken the wrong way. At least it was nothing shocking like a vibrator.

• fightnright

“Two weeks remain, the debates have finished and Campaign 2012 is down to the brass tacks of game-day execution.”

thanks goodness the debates have finished.

With a little grace and GOTV along the lines you’ve laid out, I’ll never have to watch
the zer0′s condescending sourpuss close up (barf) for hours, scowling and talking down to us, wagging his finger while droning on and on and on in that ridiculous voice *again in my lifetime*.

• tngal

Oh yeah, that would be priceless to see. Guess I’ll have to sign up at ace hq just to write comments on that one Repair Man. But thank you so much for you if/then/else scenarios. Keep our turnout high and watch out for shenanigans. A D+2 or less would be great. We also need to make sure we get good conservatives in the house and push Boehner aside. We will need a more conservative leader to reign in Romneys occassional moderate tendancies.

• Repair_Man_Jack

We can at least make Boehner less accomodating than he is right now.

• leeatmg

Not to burst your bubble, but you must mean in the second batch that MT is probable, not MN. MN is Minnesota, and as much as I’d like to be rid of Sen. Klobuchar (and then Franken next round) it’s not going to happen. She’s practically a deity here in MN, and I won’t be surprised if she exceeds Obama’s count by at least 6-7 points.

• ctredstater

Outstanding message. It is the conviction, enthusiasm and willingness to “go out of one’s comfort zone” on the part of committed base conservatives that brings the undecided (whether to vote at all – and if so, for whom) to the polls. It is like I have an additional part-time job for the next two weeks.

This nails it. thanks!

• kowalski

There are still more things coming, you can count on that, but the turnout is key. I’m going to be there. I’ve never been more interested in change than I am right now. And I have more to say about the past four years that *nobody* on this blog or anywhere else have heard me contibute up until this point.

We’ve had an absolutely dismal 4 years and we’re not going to suffer through another dismal 4 years if we can help it.

It’s going to be high time to move out and get people to the polls for Romney and I’m looking forward to it. Get ready because we’re just getting started.

We have not yet begun to fight.

• kowalski

There’s always one jerkwad who votes me down right away. I guess Streiff will know who they are.

• Bill S

Nope. We can’t tell who does that. My guess is it’s someone we banned.

• kowalski

Thanks for trying. Believe me I want us to win. I have a lot more to say but it’s going to emerge at the moment of my choosing. I want Romney to win this election and I’m very committed to him winning.

The story of the past four years is at times so horrible that I have to collect myself and really try to marshal control over my senses to avoid throwing profanities around this place. It hasn’t just been that way for me: it’s been that way for people I admire a lot more than me, who have lost a lot under this idiotic Administration.

People need to realize that the last two weeks are the important time, and they have to be willing to fight. I’m ready, and I want to. We have SO MUCH to fight for.

• kowalski

And yes last night during the debate I was hard on Romney, but not because I want him to lose. It’s because I thought he was too soft and I want him to win. What he met last night was Chicago politics filtered through an intellectual who tends to moderate it even if he doesn’t want to. Romney did OK on the balance. I understand some of the reasons he did what he did.

Now that the debates are over, what’s really going to matter is the consolidation of the ground game. Otherwise it’s just large media sources pushing people around.

• kowalski

Well now I’m downvoted 4 and you’re downvoted 2 so it must be a collection of real winners .

Yard signs are great reminders and show strength for Romney-Ryan. WIndow signs may be safer as they can not be stolen as easily. Standing on the road side with signs in a group is a show of force for drivers who vote , is live and personal. Like a door to door lierature dop visit people with signs by the road are a sight for sore eyes.. Elections are decided with a bang and drio, drio, drip.
Be careful who you talk to personally about voting, Make sure its only those who vote Republican.

• Kyle-MI

It all comes down to turnout. That is one of the reasons why the polls are all over the place. The likely voter models are all based on who they think will turn out. The polls are not determinant. They only reflect a best guess. It is sort of like the Ghost of Christmas Future in “A Christmas Carol”. After being shown the possible future, Scrooge asks something to the effect “Is this what will be or what can be?”

• Bill S

Streiff and I are having a contest to see who can set the record for the most down-votes.

• Melody Warbington

Better late than never. Thanks for this one, RMJ. It’s the kind of diary that should have been on the front page every single day for months.

GOTV for Romney/Ryan 2012!

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