« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Did CNN/ORC Just Bid Barack Obama Bon Voyage?

Internals That Would Have Allowed Hoover To Defeat FDR in 1932

By: Repair_Man_Jack (Diary)  |  November 5th, 2012 at 04:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Every so often I read something and think. “No way! It can’t be this good.” A recent CNN/ORC poll showing the Presidential Race “Tied” fits into that category. The internals of the poll are shown below.

CNN Believes This Voting Pattern Will Occur Tommorrow

If CNN/ORC has polled credibly, then yeah verily, the race is tied. (On an artificial planet with an insidious atmosphere that strangles only Republicans.) The internals of this poll show Obama getting Dunhamed. Dunhamed by people who aren’t doing it for the first time and who won’t be doing it for any other love than love of country.

CNN constructs an Obama-compliant electorate that consists of 41% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 29% Independents. This is how they call the race a tie. Other polling firms that have made phone calls outside South Philadelphia perhaps, have differing opinions on what the Election Day turnout will look like. Rasmussen actually believes the GOP will have a 5.8% advantage on Election Day. I’m not quite ready to be that sanguine. Here’s the partisan affiliation numbers Rasmussen has gotten over 2012.

Rasmussen’s Party Affiliation Numbers For 2012

So why do I claim CNN/ORC predicts a high likelihood of Obama joining many other Americans in the unpleasant state of joblessness? I run scenarios below assuming CNN/ORC has accurately reflected the Partisan Preference Map of the Election Day electorate. The one variable I experiment with is the Partisan composition of the electorate. I do 3 Pro-Romney Scenarios ranging from Rasmussen to R+0 in electorate composition. These results follow below.

Three Reasons For You To Vote Tuesday.

To be fair to CNN and The ORCs as well, I run 3 Pro-Obama Scenarios ranging from D+3 to CNN/ORCageddon (D+11). The only one that allows Obama to survive using the CNN/ORC Partisan Preference Map is the CNN/ORCageddon.

This brings me to an obvious point. You have a job to do if you don’t want CNN/ORCageddon tomorrow. Get yourself, your friends and all 12 of your pet goldfish to the polls tomorrow. Barack Obama will not voluntarily leave. He must be voted out. Mitt Romney 2012. That is all.

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • toothpick

    [Like]

  • WA_Cowboy

    DOOM?

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Ace of Spades once predicted “High Chances of a Light-toModerate Skull-****.”

  • ctredstater

    the most trusted name in news

  • christopher770

    God willing, I hope your analysis is right. I have just a few more hours untilI run out of time, but I’ve spoken to as many people as I can and have changed some minds. SO I leave with this.
    “Dear God please watch over this country always, but especially during this election process. I know you leave this little stuff up to us…but if you could dear Lord, Mr. Romney and the rest of our country (at least the majority I think) certainly would appreciate a bit of oversite to help bring light and reason into the minds of this that have not made up their mind and to give people patience when standing in line to ensure we get Gov. Romney in the White House. Of course please also help all those currently toiling in despair!” Amen. (This may not be the right place to post this…but I figured it couldn’t hurt.

  • eddiethegeek

    Can you clarify one thing for me? Is Rasmussen using R+6 in their poll which shows R49 O48? If so, I’m a bit more nervous than I’d like to be. Or is their R+6 estimation separate from their tracking poll? Thx

  • deltawing

    Rasmussen is D+2 in today’s poll.

  • tetrisd85

    Shouldn’t Obama be up by +10 in the CNN poll then? (Rasmussen D+2 = Romney +1; CNN D+11 = Obama + 10?) I’m confused by that spread and why CNN is showing a tie instead of a huge Obama lead granted the Dem oversampling.

  • LTtavernkeeper

    That means that a lot of registered Democrats are voting for Romney and not Obama. Yes, I think Rasmussen was D+2 today in latest poll, which is probably about right.

  • deltawing

    I’m starting to think Obama is right about Republicans being bad at math.

  • WA_Cowboy

    snicker…

  • APA Guy

    To the contrary, it’s liberals who have no aptitude for reality, as they seem to think that this country’s voters are 11% more Democrat than Republican. Even the 2008 election didn’t have that turnout advantage…and that was when the country was gaga for Obama and he didn’t have a terrible record to run on. I’d be shocked if the vote isn’t R+2-6 on Election Day given how the country despises him. Romney will win in a romp.

  • hunter

    thanks for the realistic look at this thing. Keep up the good work.
    All Red Staters: VOTE!

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    I think most of us already have . . .

  • rodguy911

    Its truly sad that not one network including FNC has had the guts to see this race for what it truly is polling wise.
    It’s obvious all the enthusiasm is on our side and that we will turnout far more Republicans than the dems. Just look at the 30k for Romeny with 2,800 for zero in the Ohio crowds time after time.
    Even the boss, Bruce Springsteen, the best he could do for zero was 18k as opposed to 80 k four years ago! Huge difference in enthusiasm and people showing up. There is no way we will lose this thing.
    But every way that no one will tell the truth about what will happen except for here and a few other places on the web.

  • greyeagle

    These pollsters under sample Republicans. In fact Republicans often do not answer the phone. Consequently I think the majority of the polls are totally off. Should be an interesting night tomorrow night.

  • sarg01

    Each poll has a margin of error. That accounts for a maximum of 6.5 points of discrepancy.

    Other than that – well, one of the polls just has to be wrong.