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Crunching the Early Voting OH numbers (spoiler warning: BAD news for Obama).

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  November 6th, 2012 at 11:52 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Below is a spreadsheet looking at Ohio EV totals, gotten from Cook Political Report’s Chris Wasserman.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdFJPNUt4U3F5MkxteTBoS29fSGN1S0E&toomany=true#gid=0

To break it down: In 2008 early voting in counties that Obama won were 67% of the total, with 33% of early votes coming from counties that voted for McCain.  The same ratio in 2012? 64%/36%.  BUT! Kerry/Obama counties showed a 10% decrease; Bush/McCain counties showed a 14% increase… and Bush/Obama (which is to say, counties that went for Bush in ’04 and Obama in ’08) counties showed a .6% increase.  We know that absentee ballot requests across the board trended more Republican, so it seems fair to me that we can legitimately at least speculate that Bush/Obama counties are reverting back to the GOP… which means that the blue/red county ratio is much more likely to be closer to 53%/47%.

If true, that is very bad news for Obama, because it means that he cannot hope to rack up the same early voting lead that he had in 2008.  Especially since we can’t separate out those county votes by partisan ID, yet.  When we can I fully expect that the Romney/Obama split to be closer to even (I suspect that Dave Wasserman disagrees with me on that).

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  • loganyung

    Like Reagan, Romney has united the three legs of the stool, Fiscal Conservatives, Social Conservatives, and National Security Conservatives. It should be a good night for Romney.

  • LTtavernkeeper

    Politico had early vote 29% Dem to 23% GOP in OH. However, total votes down by 100K in Cuyahoga Co. Obama won OH by 260K in 08, winning Cuyahoga by 258K. Cutting the Cuyahoga vote TOTAL (percentage is irrelevant) by a third might be enough to flip the state, all other things being equal (which they’re not).

  • aggie91

    I just reviewed the EV voting data for all the Ohio counties Obama won in ’08. A simple analysis spells DOOM for the Dems. In those counties with 43% of the precincts reporting their EV’s Romney is up 50,906 votes. This is just the Obama counties mind you. I just popped my first bag of popcorn (too early for an adult beverage). This is gonna be a night we will all be able to remember. This night is the beginning of the end of our countries experiment with Socialism.

  • recon79

    Something may be going on Chrissy is going nuts already http://www.christhehunk.com/2012/11/unbelievable-clip-of-chris-matthews-on.html

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