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EDITOR OF REDSTATE

Who The Heck Knows?

By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  November 6th, 2012 at 05:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Republicans are supposed to be “rah-rah” for Romney today.

Democrats are supposed to be “rah-rah” for Obama today.

I don’t much believe either side at this point. Democrats are supremely confident right now in Washington. The Republican consultants not so much. It is a reversal from just two weeks ago.

Here’s what I do know and do believe.

I believe Mitt Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. If he loses either Florida or Virginia, it’s an early night.

If he wins Florida and Virginia, we go to Ohio.

I honestly change my mind hourly on Ohio, but my best guess is that Romney wins Ohio and consequently wins the Presidency. I think Colorado is a foregone conclusion for Romney in the same way I think Nevada is a foregone conclusion for Obama.

I won’t pin my hopes on Pennsylvania, but it is possible. If Pennsylvania somehow goes for Romney, it’s over early.

What about Ohio though?

My sense from talking to non-campaign sources is that the GOP has been able to stay close to Obama in early voting and will win election day voting. I think economics voters and religious freedom voters, some of whom are Democrats, will push Romney over the line in Ohio.

I think senior citizens, white voters in general, Catholic voters and blue collar voters help Romney. I think a decreased youth vote hurts Obama.

If you take a polling average in Ohio, the President is three points ahead. Republicans tend to do two points better in Ohio than the polling and Democrats tend to do one point worse than the polling. That puts Ohio tied and I think passion for Romney makes up that gap.

This is a very close race. Polling trends did show a bounce for Obama post hurricane, but that bounce is now gone and I think it puts Romney, in the final days, very slightly ahead.

Of course everybody has to go vote. The Republican consultants may be down as the sun rises, but I’ve never seen the Republican base more fired up.

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COMMENTS

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  • smokinmadokie

    Erick, where o’ where has your enthusiasm gone? Oh where’o can it be????
    After I vote, I’m going to Chick Filet for lunch. Put on your happy face sir! TODAY is a GREAT day!

  • smokinmadokie

    ps: love you Erick, but you need to go VOTE and then get a nap, and then 2-3 days off. We’ve got work to do!!!!!

  • commonsenseobserver

    “The world is indeed full of peril and in it there are many dark places.
    But still there is much that is fair. And though in all lands, love is now
    mingled with grief, it still grows, perhaps, the greater.”

    No contributing to the rah-rah on your part, Erick? :P

    “a tall proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace, a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity, and if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That’s how I saw it and see it still….”

  • Adjoran

    I don’t know where you see a lack of enthusiasm on our side unless it is with the Beltway pundit class, who haven’t a clue most of the time. The people in the field are charged up.

  • lakeshore

    What isn’t getting covered in the media is just how many people who gave Obama a chance four years ago will NOT be voting for him this time–including even some Democrats. This is what is skewing the polls and inflating Obama’s numbers. “Democrats are supremely confident right now. Republicans not so much. It is a reversal from just two weeks ago.” I’m not sure where you get that impression from. Remember, we are the silent majority. The media planned on boosting Obama’s image all year and they did. But that’s all. Now the people will speak. I’ll take Rove, Krauthammer, Barone and Morris over the liberal liars. To me, Scott Walker was the proof. Note also how many other swing states have GOP governors. Time to feel good.

  • smokinmadokie

    Time to get FIRED UP Conservatives. America Rising Part 2:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u5UeMFPnxbQ

  • rkinroanoke

    This will be closer than I want it to be. I am not sure that we will know tonight. It is going to be a long day but I am going to vote in about 20 minutes. Everyone get out and vote!!

  • renl57

    Unlike Nate Silver, I don’t even bother with the horse-race polls from any state. Enthusiasm and turnout are just too hard to factor into polls.

    When an incumbent is running for re-election as Obama is, I watch just one number: His approval rating.

    Historically, the incumbent’s final vote total is about equal to his approval rating, which makes sense.

    And right now, the RCP average of Obama’s approval rating is 50%, up slightly from a couple of weeks ago. That means that Obama can only lose slightly in the popular vote. It’s still Obama’s race to lose.

    Believe me, I don’t want Obama to win. But right now, he has the edge, given that approval rating number.

  • APA Guy

    Is this post a joke? I see and hear nothing but Conservative, Tea Party and Republican enthusiasm from coast to coast. Here in the Hoosier State, we expect to see a wave of turnout the likes of which has rarely been seen.

    With all due respect, I think running in media circles may tend to dull the edges a bit for some. Early voting should be your first indicator of intensity, Erick. Obama is WAY down in early voting…particularly in Ohio…whereas Romney is exceeding McCain’s numbers there. And remember, McCain actually won the Election Day 2008 vote in OH. If that trend repeats itself, Romney wins OH comfortably and we take this country back.

  • veritaseequitas

    It is in God’s hands, where it has always been. I believe He will bless the efforts we have made to try to right this ship called America. Barack Obama and his administration have been very poor stewards of our nation…arrogant and putting themselves in God’s place. That has not gone unnoticed and will not go unpunished.

  • spinoneone

    Well, if you believe in bellweathers and harbingers, Dixville Notch, NH, split evenly between O and Romney, 5-5. The “down ballot” races went Republican. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/266061-dixville-notch-results-show-first-ever-tie

  • http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

    Actually did mean consultants. I corrected. I know the base is fired up. It’s the consultants that are reversed and I find it funny.

  • gulfcoastcommentary

    I think one should think of this election as a continuation of the “shellacking” given Obama (who didn’t learn a thing) in 2010. Nothing’s changed, right?

    My blog site: http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/

    good luck folks!

  • jimmyg

    renl57

    Your post makes as much sense as anything I have read. Last night I started looking at favorability and approval numbers, which are at 52% and 50% respectively and reached the same conclusion. It is Obama’s race to lose but it is too close to call Obama a favorite to win.

  • gmat

    Big line and not enough parking at 6 am in the Charlottesville precinct where I vote. We always vote on the way to taking mrs gmat to work, and there have been years when we were the first one’s there, in and out in 3 minutes, but not today. Took about a half-hour.

  • smokinmadokie

    shdwolf1, that IS the Tea Party. It’s people like myself. I’m the 53% (is that racist?ha!) I pay more than my fair share, glad to do so to a certain point, but NO MORE. I HAVE A SAY. I HELP pay the bills that our CongressCriminals keep running up, and I WILL NOT be chastised, nor taken for granted anymore by “The Won” and this band of criminals. We are hard-working, Christian, Constitutional Conservative , tax-PAYING, patriotic AMERICANS who have been pushed to our limit.

    It’s time for the Federal Government to be cut down to size, literally. The commies need to be outed and run out of dodge. R&R will at least stop the immediate hemorrhaging, but it only BEGINS from here!
    Tune out all of the pundits and talking heads (except Erick of course ) It’s time to roll up our sleeves and start kicking *****!

  • http://allanbreed.com/profile/williambrown bbrown

    Last election it was ACORN. Whilst that thuggish organisation might have dropped off the radar (RIP Andrew Breitbart), don’t you think the Democratic community organisers have a plan to get every member of the (now majority) government-dependent/ Obama-phone/ parasitic class to the voting booth. We know that the government has eradicated every vestige of self-sufficiency and motivation from these essentially brain-dead masses (with the help of government propaganda centers/ day care/ schools).
    However, the democratic organisation is too saavy not to know this is their key demographic for victory. We know that the narcissist-in-chief Messish will do anything to win and that the media (the most potent arm of his re-election campaign) will not report any shenanigans.

    Wm. Brown MD
    Forest, VA

  • davesinsanantonio

    Bring your own crow!

  • Mike_D_in_SC

    Waiting in line to vote in the reddest county in a red state. Got here 15 min before voting started, line already out the door. Expect I will have waited 75-90 min by the time I vote (for Romney, of course). Bottom line – GOP turnout will carry the day.

  • shdwolf1

    I feel much the same way. I spent too many years in the military fighting for American’s rights to see them throw them away. That, and it just burns me up that I work hard and pay my taxes, then see someone in a nicer car, with nicer clothes, buying nicer things, with an EBT card! MY taxes are paying for those steaks, MY taxes are paying for that Obamaphone, MY taxes are paying for that alcohol and cigarettes, and the train of kids. I’m sick and tired of it! I think we need to get government out of our lives and only allow them to protect the country, but leave us alone. For that matter, I also believe in term limits, and salary caps for politicians; it was designed as a volunteer force from the working class, who would return to their businesses when done; it should return to that, not the superstar wages for lackluster performance we have now. But, that’s another discussion…

  • shdwolf1

    my biggest fear; that the election will make or break on illegal votes that the administration allows, and the media refuses to call them on.

  • http://www.ajharaldson.com lakeworthcane

    I see it narrowed down to two scenarios.

    One is that Obama’s viability as a candidate is a complete leftist-media hoax, and Romney wins by a big margin.

    I’d like to believe this because I find it hard to believe that more than just a few people would see Obama as a good president again, after his mediocre first term; I find it hard to believe that anybody could believe that this man wants what’s best for America and Americans.

    The other is that, either the leftist media’s hoax worked, and a lot of people who don’t dig too deeply into the facts vote for Obama simply because of name recognition, or a lot of people really know what he’s all about and vote for him because they agree with him; they hate the United States and want to see him destroy it. The result is a close race.

    But I’m neither all-knowing nor all-seeing, so I can’t call the race. If I went on my gut, I’d say Romney wins. If I went on what I want to happen, I’d say Romney wins.

    But I couldn’t believe people were wild and crazy for Obama four years ago, either. I literally couldn’t believe it.

    In 24 hours, we’ll all know who won. If Romney wins, we’ll know why. If Obama wins, we won’t know why.

    Why are people voting for Obama? Is it a fad that has lasted four years? Do they really hate the United States? Do they simply not trust Romney? Do they really think that Obama’s “creating jobs” with borrowed money is a real solution? Can’t they see that this man does not want the United States to be a successful nation? Can’t they see that they will suffer if he’s re-elected, just as they’ve suffered because he was elected the first time?

    If I was a wealthy man, I’d say, “We live in interesting times.” But I’m not wealthy, and I believe life for all of us is going to get a lot harder if Obama wins.

  • jonerik

    Today, don’t rest easy in the comfort of your echo chamber. Venture into the breach and be a megaphone!

  • cwfoster

    “there will be shouting and great joy because the mudslinging will cease for a while.”

    Where have YOU been for the past dozen years? It sounds like you’re expecting a model of elections like… 20 years ago, when the winner hit 270 electoral votes, and the loser called and conceded the race to them. Since 2000, THIS is when the consultants go on vacation, and the attorneys go to work! NOW is when the mudslinging begins in earnest! Now is when the Democrats (remember them? The folks that insist there are no serious instances of election fraud?) start accusing the Republicans of stealing every race they won, trying to get the cases assigned to the dockets of Democrat appointed judges, and overturn the will of the people. It’s already started in Florida and Ohio! Don’t expect to hear a gracious concession speech out of Obama… EVER!

  • ihateliberals

    Erick, I understand how you feel. If this were any other candidate than Obama i would feel pretty confident right now. The problem that people either don’t see or refuse to see is that Obama and his Administration are cheats. The Democrats have no intention of allowing a Republican in the White House without a fight to the end. They wil have voter fraud everywhere and most likely put pressure on the electoral college. we know they put Pressure on the supreme court over Obamacare so why not the electoral college. i won’t feel really good about the Presidencey until january 22nd When Mitt Romney is sworn in.

  • ctredstater

    Not true. Bush 41 was sitting on 51% approval on election day in 1992 – and he got blown out by Clinton. Also – if that “approval rating” is based on the same flawed mix of “voting electorate” calculations that the rest of the MSM numbers are based on – it, too is flawed.
    To me the uncovered story is this. The 2010 electorate was a watershed election – historic blowout. the House of Representatives is, apparently, going to be unchanged in 2012. Much of that energy was anti-Obama. So how in heck doesn’t the 2012 electorate resemble the 2010 more so than 2008?

  • ctredstater

    one of the best comments I have read this cycle. Nixon’s Silent Majority was made up of a lot of married people from small towns and rural areas who go to church, love the country, and pay taxes. In short, the Tea Party. They came out for him in massive numbers in 1972 – and my hope/prayer is that they come out today to begin the American Comeback.

  • ihateliberals

    That doesn’t mean very much. In PA we are a REd state except for Philly nad Pittsburg. They carry enough liberals toover rule the rest of the state. so I know that my vote isn’t gong to count very much because the low life of those two cities will go for Obama and give our 20 electoral votes to him. when i drive around my county the romney/Ryan signs out number the Obama signs 100 to 1 yet our state will end up Blue because of those two cities.

  • Common_Cents

    meh, who cares who wins, i just want my life back!

  • ctredstater

    exactly the way I am looking at it. either they are living in a delusional bubble – or I am. we’ll know more in 15 hours.

  • LTtavernkeeper

    I agree. Guarded enthusiasm is good. Romney has a path to 1600 Pennsylvania that does not include OH. Its not higher percentage, but it is legitimate. Obama has NO path that doesn’t run through a state that’s high in the middle and round on both ends.

    Romney’s win sans OH: http://instagr.am/p/Rql16tDuK/

  • ihateliberals

    maybe the only good thing about Sandy wil be that those Liberals won’t go to the polls becasue it wil be too hard. republicans will go no matter what.

  • Common_Cents

    Redstate: Powerful Conservative Voices.

    Who the heck knew???

  • Common_Cents

    umm, I think Ross Perot getting 19% had a wee bit to do with that.

  • bdirks

    I agree with you except on Dick Morris. He’s never been right about anything and his prediction for a landslide victory is a terrible omen. He could say “tomorrow morning, the sun will come up”, and that will be the day the sun doesn’t come up.

  • golffan1963

    The polls remain contradictory, and for a guy who thinks Romney is going to win, Erick doesn’t seem to sound very confident.

    If Obama does win, it’s obvious it will be because of Hurricane Sandy, with a nice assist as well from Chris Christie.

    How disturbing is it–as I posted last week—that a population which seemingly had made up its mind to elect Mitt Romney decides to change its mind because of a 48 hour photo op and nice words from the NJ governor??

    So it boils down to this……the nation forgets about 7.9 per cent unemployment….forgets about 2 per cent growth…forgets that Obamacare will strangle the economy. America puts all of this aside and decides to continue with the miserable policies which offer only mediocrity because Barack Obama looked presidential after a hurricane?

    If America gives this president another chance based on a whim….on a feel good moment; if this nation is so fickle that it rewards this president because of two days in New Jersey, then I am terribly saddened to say this nation will deserve another four years of economic misery.

    We will have had our chance, and if Obama wins, we will have to learn the hard way.

  • tngal

    Or 15 days. Don’t forget late arriving overseas absentees, lawsuits, hanging chads, broken machines, disenfranchised Sandyvoters, hidden car-trunk ballot stuffing, dog ate my ballot claims, and other cries of despair. Here’s a link from a site that listed screw ups from 2008.

    http://www.alternet.org/story/106093/election_day%3A_voting_snafus_from_around_the_country

  • swordofzorro

    This is also when ballots show up in the trunks of cars, chads start to hang but don’t fall, and people like Al Franken act all rightgeous about stealing something that doesn’t belong to them. It’s about learning that dead people can actually vote in certain neighborhoods and where thugs dressed in ghetto military clothes and carrying nightsticks can get the Justice Department to support their efforts at the polls. Fun time for all…a laugh riot in fact…

  • rightlane1111

    For my two cents…Erick…Romney will win. Yes, there will be contested votes…but he will win. I notice that the Black Panthers are back at the voting places…but then…we are a great country that has Common Sense. People are looking at how Obama handled Sandy..people are looking at Benghazi…people are looking that our military was DISINFRANCHISED. People know that the EPA has a plan to put the coal industry OUT OF BUSINESS. The grid will be forever broken. People know he lowered gas prices…AND MOST IMPORTANTLY…thank you President Clinton…PEOPLE KNOW WHO THE LIAR IS.

    Stop giving so much power to the pundits and start listening to the voters. We want our country back.

  • tngal

    You’re just looking at his no-tell poker face. Never seem too exhuberant or the other players know whatcha got.

  • rightlane1111

    Oh…don’t forget my little prediction…Romney wins PA

  • kipling

    How many times have the consultants and the establishment abandoned the only candidate they said could hope to win against Mr. Obama? If Romney wins today, and I think he will, the only people he will have to thank for his victory is his own team and the Tea Party / conservatives who rallied to his cause once the die had been cast. The establishment and consultants are simply warm weather friends and he would do well to remember who had his back.

  • APA Guy

    Uh, ALL the MSM polling numbers are flawed because they assume a depressed GOP turnout and incredibly optimistic Dem turnout…neither of which tune into reality.

  • irishgirl

    Amen brother. All Christians should pray and vote today.

  • treeofliberty

    Have a little faith man!! I was at the rally in PA and it was electric! Mainstream polls like Susquehanna show a dead heat with Obama at 47%. To me this = advantage Romney.

    With lack of early voting and Obama largely ignoring the state I see the real possibility for an upset.

  • renl57

    Believe me, if I’m wrong, then tomorrow I will happily admit to everyone here that I was wrong. (I’ll be happy to admit that Obama did much worse than I expected!)

    I’m putting myself on the record, just like Michael Barone did.

  • swordofzorro

    I just drove around the ‘burgh and can tell you there are far less yard signs for Obama, far less bumper stickers, no articles of clothing with his picture, no billboards. That means that Obama is taking this place for granted and I can honestly say it looks far different here than it did in 2008. PA just elected a Republican Govenor, has Republican majorities in both houses of congress and Sen. Toomey. Sen. Casey(D) looks very weak, Mark Critz(D)looks weak and maybe, just maybe standing in line is hard work and the money-for-nothing crowd don’t really want to work that hard. I think PA is going to shock a whole lot of people today!

  • golffan1963

    By the way, Intrade seems to be sticking with Obama. Does anyone know of an example where Intrade was wrong? Just curious…I have a relative who is an Obama supporter and he keeps rubbing Intrade in my face, and it would be nice to return the favor.

  • jpkoch

    But, what about all of the independents that Mitt has on his side? In 2008 we were told that Obama won mainly because he won independents by 8-10 points over McCain. Obama also stole a few Republicans to boot. But now, Mitt has an 11-18 point lead with Independents and we are told the race is a dead heat. Also, in 2008 the GOP suffered a 6 point drop in turn-out compared to 2004. This year’s GOP turnout will most probably exceed even 2004 (the 2010 Mid-terms provided us a glimpse). So, if GOP turnout will be higher than the Dems, and the Independents are breaking Mitt’s way by nearly 20 points, why do pollsters have the race tied? Something is not quite right.
    I may look foolish, but I predict Mitt will win 330+ Electoral votes and his coattails will propel a net +6 GOP gain in the Senate.

  • APA Guy

    Who gives a rat’s a**? Why not work on what actually matters…like getting the vote out?

  • renl57

    Where did you hear that Bush 41 had a 51% approval rating?

    RCP didn’t exist back then–but Gallup had Bush 41 at only a 45% approval rating:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

    There has never been a case of an incumbent with an approval rating below 48% who got re-elected.

    There has never been a case of an incumbent with an approval rating about 50% who didn’t get re-elected.

  • renl57

    Remember, I said “POPULAR vote.”

    I think there’s still a decent chance that the winner of the popular vote could lose the Electoral College (and with it, the Presidency).

    For example, Romney could certainly beat Obama in the popular vote by one or even two percentage points. But if Obama holds onto Ohio, Obama would win in the Electoral College.

    For years, maybe decades, liberals have attacked the Electoral College as undemocratic, calling for election of Presidents by direct popular vote. Now they may have to depend on the Electoral College to put Obama over the top.

  • jdc15

    I am cautiously optimistic, but very worried at the same time. Too many pieces have to fall perfectly for a Romney victory, and the big cities in key swing states give Obama an enormous edge there. Everyone has to go out and vote! Please!

  • jpkoch

    If Mitt wins Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Wisconsin along with Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina and New Hampshire he wont need Ohio. All 8 of those states are certainly doable. The thing is if he wins those 8 states will more than likely win Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.

  • deano64

    Who knows? Michael Barone knows. When he came out and predicted an Obama win a week before the election in 2008 my heart sank. I trust his prediciton this year that Romney will win. This guy is the definition of Political Scientist.

  • treeofliberty

    The thing is, polls from 2008 overestimated Obama’s support by 2-4 points. So even in a very, very good year for Dems the pollsters exaggerated Obama’s support anyway.

    Now if you even assume that they are HALF as bad overestimating Obama’s support that they were in 08; and detract 1/1.5 points from his margins that would place him at ~47%.

    Now if anyone told conservatives 4 years ago we would be facing an Obama with 47-48% support on Election Eve and TONS of anecdotal and real evidence suggesting that the momentum, crowd support and early voting numbers are all much more favorable to our side than 08 what would we all say?

    I imagine something like GAME ON! Let’s do this! So I don’t get all the doom and gloom out there.

  • renl57

    Obama has cobbled together a coalition by handing out favors and buying votes.

    Hispanics are voting for Obama because he promised them immigration reform.

    Welfare recipients are voting for Obama because he’s relaxing the workfare rules.

    Single women are voting for Obama because he promised them abortion rights.

    Gays are voting for Obama because he supports same-sex marriage.

    Many residents of Michigan and Ohio are voting for Obama because he bailed out GM.

    The only exception is blacks, who are voting for Obama out of racial solidarity.

    The GOP can’t seem to get it through its head that married white Christians and Jews as a percentage of the total electorate keeps declining. Today, only 73% of the electorate is white, and many of those aren’t married.

    If married white Christians aren’t already a minority group (less than 50%), they soon will be. And if the GOP can’t appeal to more Americans than just married white Christians and Jews, it’s going to lose more and more elections,

  • ctredstater

    if so, my mistake. I thought I had read that on the gallup site in one of their articles earlier this summer. if that is the case, then bad news. but I still believe that if the approval rating is based on an underlying flawed voter base, that number is as susceptible to being wrong as the election projection itself.

  • treeofliberty

    So McCain who lost to Obama by 4.5 points in Ohio (vs 7 in the nationwide) and WON Election Day voting in Ohio now suddenly Romney wins the national vote by 1 or even 2(!!) points but somehow loses Ohio despite what we know is hard evidence that Obama’s early voting numbers have collapsed vs what they were in 08 and the GOP ground game is better than it was even in 04??

    Not buying it.

  • renl57

    Intrade had bet heavily that the Supreme Court would find the ObamaCare mandate unconstitutional.

    And during the 2008 Democratic primaries, Hillary was often the favorite going into the primary. When Obama’s insurgents managed to pull off upsets, as the votes came in you could see the betting on Hillary collapsing within minutes.

    But Intrade has been far more right than wrong. In the 2008 presidential election, Intrade betting got the voting right on 48 out of 50 states.

    Gallup’s chief scientist, Frank Newport, has said that in his experience with Gallup’s own polling, polls that ask “Which candidate do you believe will win?” have proven more accurate predictors than asking “Which candidate are you voting for?” (It’s certainly possible for a voter to prefer candidate Smith, but admit that candidate Jones is going to beat him.)

    And that’s what Intrade is about: It’s about polling people on what they believe will happen, not what they would like to see happen.

  • edintexas

    If Romney wins, he’ll likely never be more than Governor of a Bluer than Blue state. Well, maybe a shot at Bill Taft’s post White House career, though even that might be a hard row to hoe out here in flyover country.

  • celador2

    Amen

  • LTtavernkeeper

    Think about this – 250K fewer Dem voters in OH than in 08. Obama won OH by 260K, and carried Cuyahoga County by 258K. The math in terms of early vote looks really good for Romney.

  • tcgeol

    Exactly! I can’t figure this out. Erick needs to get away from CNN and back to activism.

  • David

    Don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m fired up. Got up at 5:15 this AM. Shower, coffee and at the polling place at 6:10. Eighteenth person in line. Once they let us in to fill out the paperwork, though, I was the quickest to get it done and cast the first vote for Romney/Ryan at my polling place. Georgia’s a foregone conclusion for the Republicans, but I still was eager to cast my vote for Romney.

  • golffan1963

    An excellent point. This election should be a no-brainer blowout for the GOP. Even if Romney wins, there is a part of me that is teed off because it never should have gotten to the point where it’s this close in the first place.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I believe the soul searching has already happened in the Republican party and we will win this election tonight. It doesn’t bother me that much that it seems like the race is close because we have to fight the media propaganda machine, too. It’s making us stronger and the left-wing media will continue to get weaker when they are made to look like the unethical hacks that they are.

  • Common_Cents

    ‘I know your works: you are neither cold nor hot. Would that you were either cold or hot!
    16So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth.

  • remalimo

    While we were fiddling Roam (US) is being burnt. I am sure that many have heard the saying “SO GOES GM SO GOES US”. I was just sent an email referring me to WWW.youtube.com/watch popup?v=LV15Gan69wo. The watch is very enlightening to me. No one has been reporting this (I hope that it is not true.

    Oh, Eric we will live on but perhaps not as well. Just remember your reminder of who is in charge. Thanks, your posts is very informative and hope to provide U.S. with information to get this country back to our God Given Rights.

  • plumely

    well said, I might add that it is time to stop being prognosticators and be leaders and ralliers. We in this party right up to our elected officials are real good at putting our tail between our legs at the first little bit of bad news.

  • tlhoward

    There are different kinds of political consultants, right? There are messaging consultants, there are math guys, vote-counting guys, etc. What kind you hanging around?

  • rigdum

    if only. I have followed the Senate races closely; unless the polling has been four or five points off, I will settle for a Romney win and 50-50 in the Senate.

  • Melody Warbington

    Supposed to be “rah-rah” for Romney? That’s all you’ve got?

    It’s not too late to call a friend or neighbor and drive them to the polls to vote. Or make some GOTV calls for Romney. It’s easy. Go here and volunteer. http://www.mittromney.com/call-home-landing?utm_medium=email&utm_source=et&utm_content=text_body_call&utm_campaign=2017789_259608_Paul%20Ryan

    How about thanking your fellow citizens who have given their time and energy and spent their own money traveling to battleground states to actually do something? Wanna bet their tired?

    Hey conservatives, regardless of who wins (Romney), take a day or two off and then find your local GOP and start working for 2014 and 2016. That’s how liberals do it, and that’s how we got into this mess.

  • tlhoward

    That’s the deal, really. How many of today’s Dems would be what we used to call Reagan Dems or can we say an Evan Byah kind of dem who thinks Obama and his progs are dangerous? That’s the count that we wonder about.

  • tlhoward

    And the only reason Obama’s approval rating ticked up those last weeks was because of a steady stream of MSM touting “the economy seems to be improving” all based on one number they’d cherry pick out of reports that showed at best, stagnation.

  • vin5ron

    The electoral college arrangement is a disavantage for states with larger populations. However apparently that disadvantage is negated by the higher Obama support in the high population areas.

  • tlhoward

    Many polling operations have popped up in the last four years and they have clients who understand that in big election , you can drive the vote with favorable toplines in polls. That is what has happened.

  • tlhoward

    How could they factor in a depressed GOP turnout when they 1) saw the 2010 turnout for conservatives and 2) when they saw the genuinely crazed enthusiasm and turnout at Romney rallies?

  • deltawing

    Those numbers don’t necessarily mean a whole lot. The danger is that lots of working class Republicans and Independents will back Obama because of the auto bailout.

  • tlhoward

    You have to understand that it’s not issues driving almost 50% of the electorate–it’s the cult of personality. We’ve become, in large part, a class of high schoolers who elect as President of your class or President of the Student Body the kid who is cool or different, not the kid who is the worker bee. Remember this: we have over the last few decades delayed adulthood for people in their twenties and even thirties. Look at the average age of a white couple’s first born child. One’s politics correlate to parental status.

  • LTtavernkeeper

    And lots of working class Democrats and Independents will back Romney because of Obama’s war on the Coal industry. Obama won OH by 260K in ’08. Dem participation is projected to be WAY DOWN from 08 while GOP will be up. If that’s the case, Obama can still carry Cuyahoga Co. by 40pts and Romney can still win Ohio. IMO, anyway.

  • tlhoward

    We go after 60 Minutes and Steve Kroft first for editing his interview with Obama over Benghazi, then releasing it only 2 days before an election–the tape showed Obama lied in the debate, yet Kroft never spoke to that. That part should never have been edited out and when the topic came up in the debate and Crowley blew things, Kroft and CBS should have released that tape the next day to show that Romney was right and that Obama prevaricated.

  • gayla

    To Erick, Moe and all the “Great People” here at Red State I want to Thank all of YOU. You have made me happy, sad, mad and cry with all of your postings. I appreciate all the intelligence and hard work in all of your posting in the years I have been with you. You have helped me with questions and knowledge that I was seeking with Candidates and to understand a lot I questioned. I will continue to eagerly wake up to Red State and look eagerly at night for Red State. I feel like each and every one of you have been my family and I want to let you know how much I have needed you and look forward to you. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. You made a difference in this ‘ole girl’s heart. I think you guys are the most intelligent and Greastest……..

  • jpkoch

    Early voting in Ohio seems to be pointing to a large GOP win in that state. I still stand by my prediction of a GOP wave-like victory.

  • rightlane1111

    OK Folks…want to help the undecided…say like those people in Iowa…you know the reason. This is what is called an unlisted video. It is very good and it does not denigrate any religion…but it does give good reasons to vote for America. Let the thing go viral

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKOem7wiVIQ&feature=player_embedded

  • rightlane1111

    GOP poll inspectors KICKED out in Philadelphia and Judge upholds…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKOem7wiVIQ&feature=player_embedded

  • rightlane1111

    Sorry…wrong link

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/philly-gop-poll-inspectors-being-ousted-for-dems/article/2512714#.UJlCbIa9MdW

  • wtpvideo

    Did Wall Street Just Give Up on Romney?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49662650

  • unclefred

    I thought this was pretty odd before I heard about the down ballot vote. The tie was contrived. There is simply no way that a Lamontagne voter also votes for Obama.