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21 Thoughts and Observations on the Election

1)      Obama won by running a divisive wedge issues-based campaign in the right locations, in conjunction with a killer ground game.  He ran up huge margins with blacks in VA and OH.  He played the amnesty card with Hispanics in CO, NV, and FL.  He played the war on women card with white women in NH, WI, and IO.  But wedge issues, such as immigration and gay marriage cut both ways.  While Obama can use them to make gains with some demographics, he should lose at least as many with a surge in Evangelical voters who are against gay marriage and blue collar workers who are against illegal immigration (and gay marriage).  Romney conceded those issues and didn’t return the favor of the wedge.  Hence, Obama enjoyed the gain of employing wedge issue attacks without incurring the loss.

2)      Romney won 32% of the Jewish vote.  Believe it or not, that is the highest share since 84/88.  At least some people are moving in the right direction.

3)      For all the talk of Republicans facing an insurmountable demographic juggernaut with single women, minorities, and youth, the talking heads fail to explain that Democrats are losing their own demographics.  Romney won Independents by 5 points, and he won whites by the largest margin since Reagan.  However, it’s clear that there is more room to grow in those two demos.  To the extent that Obama gains on social issues, such as immigration and marriage with some of his demos, had Romney fought back on those issues, he could have driven up turnout more among his favorable demos.  This is born out of the fact that Romney failed to turn out 2 million voters that McCain turned out (who himself underperformed Bush’s vote total by 2 million).  Based upon exit polling data of Republicans as a share of the electorate, Bush received about 41.66 million Republican votes and Romney got 35.28 million votes.  Romney’s number will grow before the election results are completely certified, but there’s a large gap to make up.

4)      Where are those disaffected Republicans?  Why are they not voting?  Is it because our message is too coherently conservative?  Are they overlapped with the Evangelicals who didn’t turn out?  According to Dave Wasserman of Cook Report, turnout in OK, KS, MO, TN, WV, IN, was likely down at least 5% from 08.  There simply was no GOP enthusiasm.  Maybe an even more moderate candidate like Jon Huntsman will stir up their juices.

5)      The fact that Democrats are bleeding Independents and white voters is a harbinger for the midterms.  To the extent that higher minority turnout portends trouble for Republicans in presidential elections, the loss of white voters will permanently hurt Democrats in midterm elections (when minority turnout is down).  Their urban-centric coalition will kill them in the race for control of the House for many years to come.

6)      So what about the minority problem?  Some Republicans would suggest that all we need to do is out-amnesty the pro-amnesty Democrats.  There are a few things to consider about this approach.  First, this doesn’t account for the increased black turnout.  What is their plan to win black voters (I don’t have one)?  Blacks, not Hispanics, sunk us in Ohio (15% of electorate) and Virginia (20% of electorate).  Second, have amnesty advocates calculated how many Hispanic votes they will win vs. the number of white votes they will lose from supporting amnesty?  Will it be a net gain?  Remember that political science 101 dictates that most minorities will succumb to the class warfare and insidious identity politics employed by Democrats on all economic issues, not just immigration.  Moreover, what about the 12 million new voters? Does anyone honestly think that would be a net gain for us, irrespective of how pro-amnesty we are?  What about the effects of chain migration?  How much would the benefit package cost us?

7)      37% of voters said that rising prices was the most important factor in their vote.  They split their vote 49-49 between the candidates.  That is astounding.  This lends credence to the theory that Republicans failed to hang rising prices on government interventionist policies.  That is an epic failure to slam Obama’s monetary policy with sympathetic blue collar workers.  What’s worse?  Among those who said that unemployment was their most important issue (the largest share of the electorate), Obama won 55-44.  Stupefying!

8)      As Sean Davis noted, votes against gay marriage in 4 blue states over-performed Romney’s votes in those states.  Social issues are not the problem, the candidates who fail to articulate them to the right voters are the problem.  Romney underperformed the marriage amendment in MN despite spending more money in the state than the pro-marriage campaign.

9)      While Republicans have a serious problem with unmarried women, they won married women by 7 points.  They can and must improve upon that showing to offset the free contraception vote.

10)  Believe it or not, Romney actually did the best among the 18-29 age-group of black voters (8%).  In other words, older blacks voted a few points more for Obama.  Hey, it’s better than the other way around.  In 4 years from now, when black youth unemployment is sky high, maybe there’s some hope, especially if Democrats nominate a white candidate.

11)  Negative campaigning works. Nice guys finish last. Period.  Enough said.

12)  After over $1 billion spent on TV ads from Romney and the independent groups, all we have to show for it is a two point win in North Carolina.  Obama crushed us on the ground game.  The fact that they outnumbered us 2:1 in field offices in most states turned out to be a big deal.  We might be facing a demographic obstacle, but if we matched their ground game, we would still win a majority, given that Independents have trended away from Obama.

13)  53 percent of those surveyed in the early exit polls said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.  That’s a gain of 10 points from 2008.  Clearly, the Tea Party message is resonating; we just need viable candidates to carry that message, especially for higher office (Senate or POTUS).  We need more Ted Cruzes.

14)  On the one hand, we are still leading on the issue of Obamacare.  A total of 49% were somewhat against Obamacare and a total of 43% were somewhat for it.  On the other hand, that is a dramatic drop in opposition.  This is what happens when you concede an issue instead of standing ground while you’re ahead.  If you don’t do everything to stop a new inflation-hiking, job-killing, market-distorting entitlement while it’s still unpopular, the dependency will eventually kick in and garner majority support.

15)  Mediscare is the dog that didn’t bite.  Seniors voted for Romney/Ryan by a larger margin than they did for Bush in 2004 after he passed Medicare Part D.  Moreover, 3 Democrats who won special elections on Mediscare – Barber, Hocul, and Critz – lost reelection.  Is this a lost demographic for Democrats?

16)  To my knowledge, there are only one or two counties in the entire country that Obama lost in ’08 and won in ’12.  He lost dozens more this time.  It was one directional.  Again, to the extent that Republicans are getting shellacked with minorities, Democrats are bleeding white voters.

17)  Early voting in conjunction with machine politics is killing us.  Early voting for a full month is ridiculous and unconstitutional, but the genie is out of the bottle.  We must now work on co-opting early voting.

18)  Moderate Republicans continue their losing streak.  However, it’s not just about ideology.  For many voters, elections boil down to the quality of the two candidates.  Clearly, too many people connected more with Obama than Romney.

19)  The large Romney rallies turned out to be a false hope of record GOP turnout.  We saw the same thing in ’08, even though Sarah Palin drew large crowds.

20)  There’s a lot of talk concerning the need to reach out to minorities – as if we are currently antagonistic to them.  Maybe it’s time for the Republican Party to reach out to conservatives.

21)  Republicans should save the big bucks on paying consultants.  I have the panacea to our troubles.  Let’s support free delivery of free contraception; let’s support abortion up to 3 months after the baby is born, let’s support marriage licenses for any and every sort of relationship; let’s support tax hikes on the rich; let’s offer amnesty not just for the current crop of illegals but for the next 12 million as well; let’s double benefits for Food Stamps and housing; let’s bail out every failing industry in every state.  Then we’ll run the table on all the demos.

Seriously, we all understand that it might be wise to modify the packaging and tone on one or two issues for the purpose of preserving the broader goal of limiting government.  But limiting government and restoring our Constitutional Republic has to be our ultimate goal.  At some point, if we gut our principles so severely, there’s nothing left to fight for.

I don’t think we are at the point where we must nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger to win an election.  I don’t think we are at the point when we must support insecure borders in order to win.  And if we are, then the hell with it.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project

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COMMENTS

  • chuckg

    I wholeheartedly believe the “issue” we are losing the Hispanics on is not amnesty. The issue we are losing on is believing amnesty is the reason. The reason is the welfare state is a magnet for immigrants. The Democrats are the inventors and keepers of the welfare state–they will win a large segment of the Hispanic vote.

    Perhaps we should mount our own immigration goals–determine a quota of people from Eastern Europe who rejected communism under the Soviet Union…those in India and China were the work ethic is outstanding and “liberty” is something they value more than a free gift or hot school breakfast and lunches paid for their children.

    Bottom line–the demographics are changing but the real doom is we have become a post-constitutional Republic. With Supreme Court opinions and Executive Orders–the nation our founders envisioned and formed is finally a memory. The way to put the toothpaste back into the tube is a complete crash of liberalism….and that will be when the market crashes because of liberalism. That day is coming soon. I think we need to get out of the way of liberals…give them what they want so it happens quickly. If we don’t, they will propagandize the failure on Republicans….and you know how that goes.

  • http://madisonproject.com/ Daniel Horowitz

    sure. We’re not worried about those states, but they are stark examples of how our turnout was down. It’s harder to see it in the swing states, but it was clearly evident.

  • bobmark

    Targeted entreprenuerial “Freedom Credits” for LEGAL immigrants. Higher sums for people from the countries you listed. Bupkus for the “undocumented”. Restrict the numer of slots and encourage competition for them. Do the same thing for the hispanics coming in from the south, give them a bounty for having worked thru the system. The way it is now they are being played for fools as they wait years and spend money for something so many others are getting for the price of a walk through the desert.

  • celador2

    It is pathetic a Republican can not carry Republican Ohio, Virginia or Florida,. If we can not find our voters it is over. They have not gone anywhere.

  • dans

    The reason republicans lost is because their policies are hateful and offensive to most americans. The US public no longer supports discrimination against gays. FOUR states voted to support gay rights. The republicans need to wake up.

    Similarly, about 60% of americans support abortion rights, and 90% of americans support abortion rights in cases of rape. However, the republicans ran NINE candidates that would restrict abortion rights for women who are raped. They ALL LOST.

    And dont say that rape-abortion rights is a wedge issue invented by democrats. The republican candidates simply opened their mouths while the cameras were running.

    Anotherbig problem with the republican platoform is that tax cuts for the rich make no sense. If tax cuts for the rich actually helped the economy, the US economy would be growing like crazy right now. But its not. The rich have the lowest tax rates in generations, and the cap gains rate is even lower than what most middle class americans pay. Republican policy is irrationally focused on “promoting investment” in an economy where investment ALREADY if favored to an extreme and unfair extent.

    Corporations and the rich have so much hoarded money today (due to supply-side, pro-investment policies) that they cannot profitabily invest it (hence the bubbles of recent years). Why do you think that further investment promotion will help? It wont.

    What the economy needs is DEMAND. And demand comes from shifting income to the middle and lower classes. The middle and lower classes have seen real incomes DECLINE (or flat) since the 1980s, when republican supply-side economic policy started. By comparison, the super rich are richer than ever, and take a record-high proportion of income. THIS is the reason why the economy is such a disaster. Income of the rich is hoarded/invested; income of the middle&lower classes in spent on demand. This is Keynesianism 101, and it is correct. It is the reason why the US had such a prosperous economy in the late 40s through the late 1960s.

    yes, I am blaming conservative economic policy for the collapse of the US economy. Obamas only shortcoming is that he has not done enough to reverse conservative economic policies.

    The public starting to figure out how they have been screwed by conservative economic policy. They dont trust the promises they hear about further tax cuts for economic royalists like Romney benefitting them.

    Conservative denial about the polling and election results is emblematic of conservative denial about reality generally. Conservatives deny science (climate change), womens bodies (“the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down”.

    Im not here to be a troll. But you conservatives need to figure some stuff out. A good start would be to accept science and rationality, and to abandon the increasingly wacko ideology so popular in the conservative echo chamber.

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  • kipling

    Akin and Mourdock had little impact on Romney or the election outside of their own states. There is no indication they harmed the national election.

  • grumpyKoz

    I concur with these points. But I believe that point 20) is the most appropriate.
    Conservatives must stop pandering to all the liberal left ideals. They must stay true to the principles of the Founders of this country.

    Otherwise, the left wins for the simple idea that you would not select a person who says he can work as well as an electrician to do your electrical work. You would select an electrician.
    Why buy the knockoff when you can get the real “Liberal/Left” ideolog.

  • fightnright

    Daniel, re the unmarried/married women’s vote: does that number get corrected or adjusted for age by the pollsters? In other words, does the older female vote (more married women) somehow get conflated with the female youth vote (fewer married women), since all youth globally tends to skew more to a liberal/leftist agenda?

  • swami7774

    Just once I’d like to hear one of our candidates, during a debate, lean over and ask a pro-choice Dem: “name a situation in which you would oppose an abortion.” Just once.

  • brokenclock

    Here’s my thoughts and observations. I have voted in my last election. I have listened to my last news program, read my last newspaper. This comment is my conservative swan song. I’m a retired Marine Lt. Col. I fought in Vietnam and finished up in Desert Storm. Then I taught school for 15 years and retired for good in 2008. I am proud to say I was on the pointy end of Ronald Reagan’s war machine. That was then. This is now. Now we have a gay loving, child care providing military with Wiccan chaplains. Bill Clinton even bragged about it out campaigning for Obama. Our schools are completely dysfunctional, dumbed down and burdened by crap like No Child Left Behind. I haven’t had a decent choice on election day for 30 years. But like the loyal foot soldier I am, I voted red in a blue state (Minnesota) knowing full well it was a lost cause. Four years ago, Al Franken and the democratic war machine stole the election in broad daylight while Norm Coleman blathered platitudes about honor and letting the system work. But Obama has taken that to a whole new level. The man is despicable. How could anybody reelect this guy? This time, I got involved. I made phone calls. I contributed money. I participated in forums and tried to educate people. Romney was playing to packed stadiums. The pundits were telling us at the end that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota were swing states. A Romney landslide was in the making. I really thought this time it was going to be different. Not a chance. It was worse than we could have ever imagined. Obama ran the table. It was over by 10:00 PM. Same thing in the senate. We lost every jump ball and the media is gaga about Wisconsin’s new lesbian Senator. Now we read and hear from conservatives that we need to be strong. Don’t give up the fight. Better days are ahead. We need to do a better job of messaging. This from people like Erickson, Morris, Ruddy, Towery, Coulter, Rove, Hannity, Limbaugh, O’Reilly and the rest of the conservative brat pack who predicted the Romney landslide. Well, if you guys want to continue the fight, knock yourselves out. I’ve spent my entire adult life fighting for one thing or another and I’ve had enough. Republicans are gutless. Romney showed a flash of fighting spirit in the first debate. Then for the last two, he had that Stepford Wife smile on his face while Obama teed off on him. And what did the pundits say? Romney played it smart and looked presidential while Obama looked small and peevish. Saints preserve us. Here’s some advice from the front lines. The side that shoots first in a fire fight usually wins. If you don’t shoot first, your only viable option is to return instantaneous and overwhelming firepower. You’ve got to hand it to the Demonrats. They play for keeps. They never quit, never apologize for anything. Between that and an electorate that looks increasingly like Brazil, the Republicans will be lucky to ever win another national race. So I’m retreating into my little world with my wife and grand kids and winters in Tucson. Do svidanya.

  • impercipient

    While this election should have been about the economy it ended up being about social issues. I think the GOP needs to stop nominating the social conservatives b/c it will continue to alienate women, hispanics, and other independents. Roe v Wade is 40 years old now. With more and more women working and waiting to have children it becomes more and more important to independent women. If we are serious about the debt and deficit we need to avoid nominating these candidates for national office and try to change social issues at the state level.

  • jaykali

    A lot of good points, but it still feel like “let’s double down on the white vote” which isn’t going to work. I hope that the ppl with big money figure out the ground game stuff or we’re screwed. We can ignore identity politics but they are real. In advertising you sell products to target groups, and you do what you can to reach those groups. It doesn’t mean we have to pander to everybody but we DO need to reach these groups somehow. If we can make headway there, get Rubio and Jeb Bush to run together, maybe we can figure this thing out, Rubio really is perfect. He’s super conservative, relatable, Hispanic, a communicator, young. He is the chosen one which means liberals will spend 4 yrs trying to destroy him. Rubio or bust. That being said I think we are already screwed.

  • lar0311

    Your point 11 is, uh, inaccurate. The Romney campaign spent about $430 million on negative campaign ads versus $337 million by the Obama campaign. This race can’t be summed up as saying nice guys finish last. Neither side played a clean race. Ultimately, Romney seemed to have no convictions. His position flip-flopped many times. Additionally, there was far too much misinformation or outright lies. The “Jeep to China” debacle could have very well ended his chances in Ohio. The Republican party needs to ditch the religious extremists and focus on small government and fiscal responsibility. Legislating people’s personal lives based on your beliefs does not equal small government. There needs to be a return back to Republican principles if this party wishes to be competitive in the future.

  • impercipient

    So you think that more Akins and Mourdocks are the answer for the GOP in the 21st century? You think Santorum beats Obama in a national campaign? The demographics are changing whether we like it or not. Those 100 k conservatives Ohioans who didn’t show up would be replaced by just as many independents or moderates going the other way.

  • gunnyg2002

    LtCol, as a retired Gunny, I concur.

    I am sorry I ever served this nation. These parasites did not deserve my blood, sweat, and sacrifices.

    Damn the 47%ers to Hell.

  • vonus33

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  • vonus33

    Considering Romney lost 10 of 11 swing states, they don’t seem so swingy. They seem blue.

  • vonus33

    That’s about the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. Please keep pushing laws so the govt will force pregnant women to give birth. And keep losing elections outside of the Confederacy

  • Bill S

    Yawn. Same idiocy we heard in 2008. Disproven over and over. Libertards will never shut up.

  • vonus33

    And libtards will keep kicking your butt in national elections, Jethro,

  • vonus33

    Adios

  • Bill S

    I would have expected a Marine to be willing to fight. Apparently I was mistaken.

  • Bill S

    Bye, asshat.

  • http://madisonproject.com/ Daniel Horowitz

    This had nothing to do with Akin and Mourdock. Obama made this about social issues long before they made their verbal gaffes.

  • notlostinthebushes

    OK, here’s your answer.

    Nobody is in favor of abortion. Nobody thinks it’s an optimal solution or a trivial thing or an easy way out. The only disagreement is whether your religious opinion can be imposed on people who do not share your religious convictions. Personally I would counsel anyone who asked not to have an abortion. To carry to term and give the child up for adoption if necessary. But abortion must and will remain legal.

    Those who fight to overturn Roe vs. Wade are mostly hypocrites. If they really cared for life, they would put all their energy into making it easy for women to chose to carry to term, providing shelters, offering to pay expenses and adopt the child and so on, rather than threatening them with jail time if they don’t. It’s easy and cheap to condemn others.

  • http://madisonproject.com/ Daniel Horowitz

    married and unmarried include all age groups. Age is a separate demo in the exit polls. Basically marriage trumps almost every other factor. Married women in their 20s are more likely to have voted for Romney than single women in their 40s.

  • Bill S

    So, genius, how do you now that pro-life people aren’t helping those who you cite? I do. I’m sure many here do. Nice unsubstantiated accusation.

    I predict your longevity here will be brief.

  • http://madisonproject.com/ Daniel Horowitz

    no, because Obama lost 10 million voters from last time. They clearly didn’t vote for him. They stood home.

  • smirkychimp

    Do you disagree demographics are changing?

  • agooglyminotaur

    They *are* changing, which has been widely recognized by libs and conservatives alike. Especially the Latino vote, which could have been crucial in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marco Rubio becoming even more of a presence on the national stage— and I think Erick’s outstanding “We Forget” article from earlier today made a fantastic point. Latino voters could easily be receptive to the GOP message of self-sufficiency and personal accomplishment. Nobody, as he noted, comes to America looking for a handout. They come here looking to succeed. The GOP can easily convince Latino voters that its platform offers them better opportunities for success, and shares strong religious and family values grounds with them as well.

  • agooglyminotaur

    I think you’re both right— the youth gap isn’t enormous, but in elections that are decided by single-point margins, I think the party needs to do more to reach out to young voters. Any ideas on strategy?

  • fightnright

    thank you so much; something I’ve puzzled about for a while. Esp. as Bill O’Reilly repeatedly asked Bob Beckel last evening, ‘Why does the married woman vote (R), and the unmarried woman vote (D)?’ I always thought, probably (other than birth control/abortion issues) because unmarried women are more likely to be a subset of the liberal youth vote (the female youth).

  • renl57

    A proposed Human Life Amendment is NOT consistent with “limited government.”

    Returning Roe v. Wade to the states and letting San Francisco and Vermont have unrestricted abortion if they choose, is consistent with limited government.

  • renl57

    Overturning Roe v. Wade is NOT the problem here.

    Even “Dean Scream” Howard Dean said that the worst that would do is revert abortion back to the states. Vermont would still have legal abortion in that case, but most likely conservative states would ban it.

    The problem is the SoCons want to ban abortion everywhere. A Human Life Amendment would ban abortion even in the most liberal precincts of Vermont and San Francisco.

    That’s forcing one particular view of personhood on Americans who don’t support it.

    Today, according to the surveys I’ve seen, some 10% of Americans self-identity as atheist or secular or non-theist. They have rights too.

  • renl57

    Single women voted for Obama much stronger than single men did.

    So you can’t blame the whole thing on youth.

  • renl57

    Didn’t you notice how Ron Paul was always getting big crowds when he addressed college campuses?

    That’s because he had a message of social libertarianism.

    We could start by changing our views on marijuana, for example.

    There’s certainly a free-market view for legalizing marijuana. It would become just like any other infant market: A whole bunch of amateur growers would get into the field. Some would succeed. Eventually they might become big companies, challenging the dominance of the big tobacco companies.

    Just like Apple ended up challenging IBM’s dominance.

  • renl57

    Many folks don’t realize that the current election vote totals are tentative, not final. They are likely to grow by another couple million votes in the next month or so as more votes are counted or recounted.

    In the end, a miss is as good as a mile.

    Obama lost votes. But so did Romney. Obama’s coalition held together, with vote percentages comparable to 2008. That’s the important thing, and it’s the thing that few conservatives believed would happen.

  • MoeLane

    renl57: you were told to do something.

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/11/08/ppps-polls-were-rigged-all-along/#comment-706076046

    Do that. Now.

  • renl57

    By 2016, it is projected that white voters will be down another 2 percentage points, down to just 71% of the electorate.

    Since these presidential races tend to split roughly 50-50 between the Dem and the Repub, that means that in 2016, the GOP candidate would have to gain *four* percentage points among white voters just to match Romney’s 48% (which of course lost the election).

    That’s becoming nearly impossible, since at least one-fifth of white voters self-identify as liberal.

    We can’t keep basing our election hopes on running the table among non-liberal white voters. As I’ve just shown, with each new election cycle the bar goes up by 4 more points among white voters.

  • MoeLane

    renl57: email the site when you’re ready to do this.

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/11/08/ppps-polls-were-rigged-all-along/#comment-706076046

    You were given several warnings.

  • rabun1016

    Agree.

  • agooglyminotaur

    Not to mention the enormous blow it would deal to illegal growers in the United States, not to mention the Mexican cartels south of the border. I see no problem with legalizing marijuana and regulating/taxing it like alcohol— hey, it’s a tax I won’t pay and no one I know will pay. It would also slash billions off our law enforcement and penal budgets, or at least free up the funds for more important pursuits.

    I think you raise a good point, and I’ve always found many of Dr. Paul’s arguments compelling. My conservatives views are almost entirely fiscal; social conservatism has never had any real draw for me. I find it to be at odds with principles of individual liberty. That said, I don’t go as far as Dr. Paul in saying *all* illegal drugs should be decriminalized— I’m pretty sure that legalizing crack and heroin is a terrible idea, but hey, that’s just me.

  • lar0311

    Some decisions are better left to the Supreme Court. Many states have proven they are incapable of dealing with matters of personal freedom. Even though they are no longer in office, the likes of Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock cannot be allowed to legislate their beliefs, even at the state level.

  • agooglyminotaur

    I’m sorry that you feel so disheartened, and even more for the unwarranted disrespect shown to you here. Thank you very much for your service; I appreciate it.

  • aeaeren

    Oh there’s evidence but I wouldn’t say it was their fault. They were used as tools for the war on women and we know we lost the single woman voter. Not sure what Romney could have done to thwart the gender warfare outside of being a real conservative that promotes individual Liberty but we know it will be used so PLAN for it and determine how to combat it NOW.

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