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The Fiscal Cliff And The Keyser Soze Option

One story the guys told me, the story that I do believe was from his days in Turkey. There was a gang of Hungarians that wanted their own mob. They realized that to be in power you didn’t need guns, or money or even numbers. You just needed the will to do what the other guy wouldn’t. After a while they came into power and came after Soze. They say he was small time then, just running dope they say. They came to his home, in the afternoon, looking for his business. They find his wife and kids in the house and decide to wait for Soze. He comes home to find his wife raped and children screaming. The Hungarians knew he was tough and not to be trifled with. So they let him know they meant business. They tell him they want his territory, all his business. Soze looks over the faces of his family; then he shows these men of will what will really was. He tells [the last Hungarian] he rather see his family dead then live another day after this. He lets the last Hungarian go, waits until his wife and kids are in the ground and then he goes after the rest of the mob. He kills their kids, he kills their wives, their parents and their parents friends. He burns down the houses they live in, and the stores they work in, he kills people that owe them money. And like that…he’s gone. Underground, nobody’s ever seen him since, he becomes a myth…a spook story that parents tell their kinds at night: ‘Rat on your Pop and Keyser Soze will get you’. And nobody really believed… Do you believe in him Verbal? Keaton always said ‘I don’t believe in God but I’m afraid of him’. Well, I believe in God, and the only thing that scares me is Keyser Soze.

If you haven’t seen the movie Usual Suspects take some time to view this video beginning at 2:10 to get the mood for what follows

Movies often serve as a useful shorthand for how to address some of life’s issues. In the movie Usual Suspects, Keyser Soze is confronted with the fact that his wife and children would be an impediment in dealing with his business competitors. In a way the House GOP finds itself in the same position as Keyser Soze. Our home has been invaded. Our family despoiled. And we are facing a never ending series of ever increasing demands from the criminals who have abused us.

Sometimes the only way out of a dilemma is by clearing the table and starting again from scratch. At midnight on December 21, 2012 the United States will be faced with what is being called the “fiscal cliff.” In short this cliff is composed of several parts.

1. The payroll tax reduction passed in 2010 will end.
2. The temporary tax rates passed under President Bush will lapse.
3. Obamacare’s taxes will come due.
4. The Alternative Minimum Tax will expand to many more taxpayers.
5. Extended unemployment benefits will expire.
6. Some $78 billion in federal spending will be sequestered.
7. Medicare “doc fix” will expire.

There are several sets of sacred cattle here. The GOP is primarily interested in protecting the tax cuts and Defense spending. The Democrats are primarily interested in preserving the social spending and free stuff for their base. This time around the Democrats, in their never ending paean to class warfare, are insisting that the Bush Tax Rates for the wealthiest Americans be allowed to expire. The GOP should not negotiate on this. This will put the GOP in the position of only getting part of what it wants in exchange for giving the Democrats everything they want, in other words this is a textbook case of bipartisanship in Washington.

The GOP should take the position that the danger to our country comes from profligate spending and while reduced taxes are the correct policy we are not in the position to make that trade off. If necessary, the GOP should stand ready to walk away from negotiations and let events take their course. They should metaphorically shoot their wife and kids.

This is not without cost. Some have predicted that in the current weakened state the “fiscal cliff” could push the country into recession. The fact is that unless we get our fiscal house in order we are looking at what the economy will look like for decades. Pushing it into a recession that we will recover from is infinitely preferable to decades of stagnation.

The immediate impact with be an increase in taxes on everyone who has a job, several million people who had no tax liability under the current tax rates will be returned to the tax rolls, and about three million unemployed people will be dropped from unemployment insurance.Some of these outcomes are not bad. The extended unemployment benefits has had the perverse effect of keeping unemployment high. Removing people from the tax rolls has had the effect of reducing the number of people who pay taxes with deleterious impact on the social fabric.

There is no doubt that the sequestration would be painful but the problem it is to address is not getting better. While sequestration may be a blunt instrument, if that is what it takes to bring spending under control we should use whatever tool the other side will agree to. In this case the Democrats declined to act responsibly and enact cuts on a program-by-program basis because they were betting the GOP would not like Defense cuts. They eschewed the scalpel for the dull spoon. So be it.

For the next two years the only bulwark between America and what Obama would make America become is the House of Representatives and the narrow shoulders and rather limber backbone of Speaker John Boehner. The only chance we have is if the House Republicans begin to deal ruthlessly with this regime. The first step is to eliminate everything the caucus is attached to and pursue a few objectives with relentless focus. This starts with tossing the Bush Tax Cuts overboard deliberately in order to gain the freedom to deal with the spending problem.

COMMENTS

  • streiff

    I don’t have a problem with tax increases IF we get real current year cuts in actual spending and not fluff 10 years out.

  • storminwgfp

    Let the tax cuts expire; that’s what they want. I don’t want the resulting lousy economy, but sometime we’ve got show America what their policies will produce. Just gives us that much more room in 4 years to cut and get a bigger boost for “our” economy.

  • jpkoch

    As usual, an oustanding essay.

  • jpkoch

    I fear a repeat of the 1991 defecit negociations between Bush and House Speaker Foley. Foley and the Dems got their tax increases. Twenty two years later we’re still waiting for the spending cuts.

  • JSobieski

    I think the tactic of throwing out thr Bush rates for tactical freedom is sounds. Lets do it.

  • hunter

    Sounds like a suicide pact. The problem with the excelltn Keyser Soze reference is that we would be killing our own children, and trust me, Obam would find an extra-Constitutional way around this that will render us out of the game forever.
    No thanks.

  • hunter

    The balanced budget amndment will not pass, probably every.
    This is sounding morelike a death cult fantasy, frankly.

  • streiff

    What is your solution? Capitulation?

  • jpkoch

    So, as I understand it the GOP should meekly lay down and allow Obama and Reid to do as they wish. And when the time comes when our financial system collapses the GOP should be prepared to accept full responsibility for everything that has gone wrong (ie like the 2008 market collapse). Is that what you suggest?

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    I’ve been thinking the same thing. The only real power Republicans have is to hold the line on the budget. If they try to save the tax cuts and defense spending they’re setting the stage for another budget buster that’ll end up being mostly social programs. Instead they express a willingness to pass Obama’s tax and spending changes only if he submits other changes to pay for it. That may also be an effective way of attacking Obamacare since there really isn’t a way to pay for it. Obama ran on a platform of raising taxes and claims the Bush tax cuts got us into the current crisis. Let him have his way on that.

  • DerKrieger

    I agree. Time for the GOP to stop acting like gentlemen, stop fighting under the Marquis of Queensbury rules, and break out the brass knuckles.

  • Kyle-MI

    No matter what happens, we will be blamed for it. No matter what happens, next election we will still be accused of racism, pushing granny from the cliff, etc. The Dems have completely poisoned the well. I don’t see any reason to compromise with them.

  • http://conservativemountaineer.blogspot.com/ conservativemountaineer

    I agree. Let Obama and Reid own this.. lock, stock and barrel. I’ll get killed financially, but if that’s what ahppens,, so be it. I, and many like me, will get killed financially at some point.
    Bring. It. On. Now.

  • MiamiDave

    I’m with you 110%, Streiff. If President Obama wants to force his so-called mandate for higher taxes down the throats of the American people, then the GOP should let him do it– and let him take full responsibility for the disastrous fallout. We cannot let him hold us hostage on the Bush tax cuts, just so he can use them to beat us over the head with more spending.

  • freemkts

    I don’t know that we can do this. Keyser Soze is a fictional character. Who in real life would act so ruthlessly? As a practical matter the Dems and the MSM would crucify the GOP for going over the fiscal cliff. The stock market would crash. It’d be 2008 all over again. And you know how many congressmen are bought and paid for by the defense industry. Just try and get those folks to toe the party line. Aint happening.

    This is like a union electing go on strike. The logic is you take food out of your own mouth in the hopes that mangement suffers even more. But it all comes down to how long you can hold out. A one or two day strike is no big deal. A six month strike is. If the union begins to crack they are finished. And many a union have gambled and lost when they went on strike. Ask the Air Traffic Controllers how that worked out for them.

    To go over the fiscal cliff would be a ploy that couldn’t possibly last for more than a day or two. If the Dems hold out the GOP would eventually crack and then Obama would everything he wanted and more. It’s like playing Russian Roulette. There’s no coming back if you lose.

  • General_Confusion

    Problem is the Dems are likely to respond to the expiring tax cuts with their own bill that will be HEAVY on redistribution and will target business creators with high taxes.

    I don’t think we want to lose the Bush version of tax cuts only to have it replaced with the Reid version of tax “cuts”.

    As far as being demagogued we will be demagogued regardless
    of what we do or don’t do. It would be nice if for once we did the right thing knowing that the press and the Democrats won’t like us either way.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    Or he could just be managing public perceptions, trying to look reasonable and flexible while fully intending to do the opposite. That would be the smart play.

  • http://twostepstotheright.blogspot.com/ D.T. Dickinson

    You should have stopped at “…should not compromise.” It never helps the GOP to compromise, so why do it? Let them sleep in the bed they made. At least there might be a slim chance this economic disaster waiting to happen will wake someone up. The alternative is to keep trying to lessen the effects AND still be labeled as obstructionist.

  • streiff

    wrong on every count.

    1. Most congressmen are not bought by the defense industry. If they are bought it is much more likely they are bought by the unions or AARP.

    2. As it is right now we are going to cave on spending to keep part of the tax cuts. That is craven capitulation.

    3. The sequestration is about 10% of spending. I’ll apply PJ O’Rourke’s Circumcision Rule here which says you can take 10% off anything.

    4. The press is going to demagogue the tax cuts anyway unless we capitulate.

    5. This is not a government shut down. This is simply letting temporary tax cuts lapse so they cannot be held hostage to spending.

  • streiff

    I think that is part of it. It would be silly to offer obstruction to a newly elected president.

  • http://lukos.com Ed54

    Another way to analogize it is like the guy with the grenade who pulls the pin and threatens to blow himself and everyone else up unless he gets his way. That of course only works if the other side believes the guy with the grenade is crazy enough to do it. I fully agree on your conclusion: if forced to choose between tax cuts and spending decreases, we should choose the spending decreases. Speaking as a former military officer and a current defense contractor, we can find a way to live with the defense cuts.

  • checkmate2012

    “GOP should stand ready to walk away from negotiations and let events take their course.” I agree wholeheartedly and basically laid out the same argument in my “Let Them Eat Cake” post last night. Let the Prez and Dems own this mess they created and let the electorate feel the pain they voted for in two elections now. It’s the only way to ween the takers from the makers.
    No compromise period. Now if someone could inform Boehner ASAP!

  • streiff

    that was the point I was making. We have to do this to let them know we are crazy. Otherwise we are going to be in for a very long 2-4 years.

  • Thomas_Hauber

    Exactly. So now would be the moment to actually push for something to fix the federal budget, like a balanced budge amendment. To me that is the minimum the house republicans should ask for.

  • Thomas_Hauber

    Getting current year spending reductions is not enough. What we need is structural reform. We need to think more boldly than that.

  • spinoneone

    Look at NSDD 51 and E. O. 13603, et sq. Plenty of authority to do whatever he wants. Then we won’t just look like a South American dictatorship, we might very well be one.

  • rkinroanoke

    Streiff – i made a similar argument (albeit without the cool Keyser Soze reference) Wednesday morning to several co-workers. Boehner should get out in front of this. The President signed sequestration into law; therefore, he must want it as part of his plan. So there is nothing to negotiate. Make the Dems come to him with a solid proposal that includes no tax increase, for anyone.

    My wife and I have already looked at reducing our spending for the next two years to only what is absolutely necessary. There will be short term pain regardless of if sequestration goes away. In truth 78 Billion of 3+ trillion is only about 2.5% (yes, I know this is not all spending so the % is higher) but we have to start somewhere. Of your list of 7, 1 should not have happened. 2 is the big sticking point. 3 will happen now that we lost. 4 I don’t know who this will affect, I need to research more 5. should expire 99 weeks is ludicrous. 6 the first real cuts in a long time. Just a start. Even our sacred cows are sacred cows. 7. In conjunction with 3, let the docs start letting people know the problem.
    Boehner must play hard ball here.

    In a bureaucracy as large and bloated as the federal gov’t and the defense department portion of it, a 20% cut does not have to cut muscle. I have worked nearly 3 decades in manufacturing. When we try and reduce cost on a project, 20% is a minimum target.

  • streiff

    I don’t think BBA is a good idea at all, so count me out on that. The House has already passed a BBA but there is no way the Senate, President, or States are going to approve it.

  • streiff

    actually neither of those give the President authority to make us into a “South American dictatorship.” Or even a Kenyan one.

  • streiff

    completely agree. Once you shoot the wife and kids you have a lot of freedom.

  • rkinroanoke

    And the Marquis of Queensbury rules are invoked right before Danneher sucker punches Thornton. Aren’t we tired of getting suckered yet?

  • rkinroanoke

    Absolutely. No debt ceiling increase. It is after all unpatriotic.

  • freemkts

    Lots of GOP congressmen are owned by the defense industry. They’d scream bloody murder if the sequestration happened.

    The tax increases would be an across the board increase for everyone, not just the wealthy. Included would be a 2% increase in the payroll tax from 4% to 6%. You wouldn’t last a week once that hit and people saw the money withheld from their paychecks.

    The stock market reacts in real time. Remember when the House originally rejected TARP? The market crashed by 700 points that day and we got TARP.

    I’m frustrated too by the situation we’re in but it is what it is. I don’t think Obama’s policies are good at all, but the country will have to find out the hard way on that. Or maybe they just don’t care. The guy got a mulligan for the past 4 years. Welcome to the new normal.

  • Wubbies

    This has to be the best solution I have read. I wish so very badly that our Republican leadership had this kind of courage and determination! However, sadly the Republican leadership in the house does not have the brass male parts nor the spine to endure what is required. They are political cowards and the Democrats know it. That is why the Democrats keep doing it and keep getting away with it.

  • happi

    Of course Boehner will compromise and give away the store. Guaranteed. But here’s where going Soze should REALLY apply. Put all efforts into the Tea Party Caucus. If Boehner doesn’t hold, they should refuse to support him for Speaker – EVEN IF IT MEANS SPLITTING THE REPUBLICAN VOTE – and you know what that would mean – the Wicked Witch of DC would return as Speaker! You want Soze? That’s Soze!

  • rkinroanoke

    Streiff – I am not sure that anyone in congress truly understands the phrase “real current year cuts in actual spending”. They still think that a planned increase of 8% that only increases 7% is a cut.

    But I agree in principal. There must be real cuts meaning less this year than the year before.

  • rkinroanoke

    This is Boehner we are discussing.

  • rkinroanoke

    But that is when the new congress takes over. These negotiations will happen before the end of the year. Puts Boehner in charge. But I agree, all TPC members should get together and overthrough Boehner. Mtichy the spineless needs to go as Senate Minority Leader as well. How about Rubio for that?

  • happi

    The TP Caucus needs to pressure Boehner NOW. Their stick is their support for him in January’s vote for Speaker. And if he caves, they have to go thru with it and not support him.

  • gmat

    Obama doesn’t have to worry about giving away free stuff anymore. He just stood his last election, and now he’s in the legacy round. No telling what he might agree to.

  • westcoastpatriette

    Unless we heard different speeches, I didn’t hear Boehner say “tax increases” but “revenue increases.” Maybe he is being foxy because that leaves where the revenue comes from open to interpretation — and the Republicans idea of increasing revenue is from a stimulated economy that results in more revenue flowing to the government and not necessarily from higher taxes.

  • http://teapartisan.wordpress.com Loren Heal

    Since we know Boehner is incapable of negotiating, don’t put him in a position to fail.

  • http://www.political-woman.com politicalwoman

    The “rather limber backbone of Speaker John Boehner.” I call it spineless. It may be time for Paul Ryan and others to come to the forefront. Remember 58 million people voted for Romney, and returned the Republicans to a majority in the House, which holds the purse strings.

  • General_Confusion

    1.) He was offering something to the Democrats.
    2.) The Democrats only are only interested in Tax Increases.
    3.) We are talking about John “Give away the store” Boehner

  • Viet71

    Here’s what Boehner should do.

    Come out in a cooperative spirit and say Republicans are eager to work with Dems to reach a compromise that makes sense for the American People. But that such a compromise needs to be reasoned and thoughtful. So the bargaining process will begin after the first of the year.

    Score a point for Boehner: a man of reason.

    Come January 15, the first worker checks arrive minus the new taxes. Pain all around.

    President Obama, please help us!

  • kayakbob

    Change the dynamic by shooting the [metaphoric] hostages. Well, that would certainly be one way to accomplish two things:
    1. let the country, once and for all, experience the calamity that is full-contact liberalism.
    2. let every citizen know that they can’t blame ‘the right’ anymore for their individual station in life. “You want it? You got it. Have fun”

  • http://brainshavings.com OhioCoastie

    For the next two years the only bulwark between America and what Obama would make America become is the House of Representatives and the narrow shoulders and rather limber backbone of Speaker John Boehner.

    If so, then it’s all over. Cryin’ John Boehner and the House GOP leadership will not stand strong. They will fold like they always do. To expect otherwise is gobsmacking foolishness.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I don’t think he is stupid enough to give away the store this early and framing the discussion the way he did leaves things open.

  • checkmate2012

    As said below, the Prez signed the sequester into law so he owns it (and it was the White House’s idea). For perspective, the spending cuts are $136 Billion for 2013, 0.8% of GDP. In 2012, the gov. spent $3.8 Trillion or $10.5 Billion/day. So the cuts amount to about 13 days of spending at this years spending rates.

    If we can’t manage to forego 13 days of spending in a fiscal year, we really are sunk. I say sequester away!

  • General_Confusion

    You are being unfair to John Boehner, right now as we speak he is loading up the House leadership positions with moderates and liberals so he can fight… oh, wait… never mind.

  • ncfamilyman

    Firewall 5′s on this streiff. The poisoning of the well needs to be completed.

  • rkinroanoke

    Insiders say Mr. Boehner will be reluctant
    to make any moves that could spark a challenge on his side.

    That makes it imperative for the real conservatives to go to Boehner now and push hard. Put someone with a spine in charge. Speaker of the house and he is from Ohio and we lost Ohio.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    It’s a matter of triaging our priorities. If Republicans dominated the federal government we’d be able to get the deficit under control while also maintaining a strong defense and pro-growth tax policies. Since we don’t, we need to focus on what is most important, and right now that is averting national bankruptcy.

  • jaykali

    I would love this. I mean let’s force the issue now. People need to wake up. But Boehner won’t. He will do what politicians always do, come up with some convoluted short-term thing that looks like a compromise that some of his members can swallow and move forward onto the next thing. I am tired of these half-ass, temporary, kick the can down the road half-measures that politicians come up with. We need to go Mel Gibson, Lethal Weapon crazy.

    Iran, Russia & China know what a weak dove Obama is but the Republican leadership can’t figure this out?

  • booth

    What happens if the tax cuts expire and then the Senate passes a bill only re-enacting them for below $250k as Reid and Obama have said they’re going to do?

    There’s a chance to filibuster that before it happens, but if it does, I don’t see how the House can get away with not passing it.

  • speckk

    Please let the sequestration run its course. That shows Republicans are finally serious about small government.

    Government shutdown is a loser. It plays into The Chosen One’s obstructionist propaganda.

    If Republicans want to hold the house, they need to keep passing budgets and free market solutions which show what crazy liars Reid & Obama are. Show that we’re willing to pass solutions through both houses (Medical pricing visibility is a free market slap against Obamacare). America and the GOP can’t afford 4 more years of stalling tactics. Bush followed Clinton because House Republicans gave us a stronger economic base (before selling out).

  • evilbloggerlady

    Why not agree to toss that Medicare expansion that Rove Bush pushed through with that staff killer Ted Kennedy? Hows that for bipartisan ship. Barack Obama said it was bad. He should be all for it.

  • ww2nd95

    I agree to a certain extent, but wouldn’t allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire also be playing into Obama’s hands? What if for instance, the Dems come out with a proposal of throwing everything on the table, similar to the “Grand Bargain”, with tax increases of those making upwards of 500k, and spending cuts to various other programs. We say no, Obama stands firm, we go over the cliff, then the Dems come back with “One of the biggest tax cuts in history for everyone making under 250k” on 1/1/13? How do we respond to that? If we stand our ground and say elections have consequences, so no deal unless the top 1% also receives a tax cut, not just the middle class, they will beat us over the head with that over and over and over for the next 2 years, and paint us as the party that refused a massive tax cut for the middle class.

  • evilbloggerlady

    We should resist folding on the tax cuts. http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/11/bill-quick-unleashed.html We have to say no because we believe it is right to say no.

  • celador2

    Obama looks for a Photo op bounce as he got the last time he cut a last minute deal and saved the federal governmet from the brink. No one else gets a bounce and Obama plan it this way. Late ndeal in lame duck sessions. One president to the rescue, ain’t he bipartisan and all that.
    :Let him sink us and take responsibility for once.

  • streiff

    you’re missing the point. If we say, “you’re right, we need more revenue and we’re letting the tax rates increase” there is no longer a bargain. Seems to me that you are advocating unilateral surrender or it’s cheap-date cousin, negotiating with yourself.

  • streiff

    as long as you realize that as long as the Fed can generate money there is no danger of “national bankruptcy.”

  • streiff

    Or Cleavon Little from Blazing Saddles…

  • ww2nd95

    I see what you’re saying and as I said, I agree with taking the fight to them, rather then the other way around. All I’m saying is, on 1/1/13 when the Dems come back with their “tax cut” for those making under 250k, what is the best politically sound response, without handing them a big tool to use against us for the rest of the year? If we say, “you’re right, we need more revenue, so no deal”, I think he’ll simply go to the stump and say, “Well I offered them a tax cut for the majority of Americans, they said no, they only care about the super rich, blah blah blah”.

    I do see what you’re suggesting, I just think this could hurt us as much as them politically.

  • The_Gadfly

    Unfortunately, D.T. is correct.

    When you’ve played and DMed as many games as I did in my youth, one thing you learn quickly: wishes are no panecea for player characters. No matter how tightly they try to control what they get from their wish, unless the DM wants them to get what they intended to get, they won’t. In this case Harry Reid is the DM or the Senate.

    You left your congresscritter an out: a vote on a BDA. Which BDA? And why vote, instead of pass? If they have a vote on it, and it gets 66 ayes in the Senate, they had one, and it still won’t go to the States for approval. But they will have met your requirement.

  • The_Gadfly

    I don’t believe in coincidences.

  • streiff

    they can’t do that. The Constitution says all revenue bills must originate in the House.

  • jackm

    In case you didn’t notice:

    1. Passing something, like for example what it would take to repeal Medicare Part D is hard. It takes (potentially) 60 votes in the Senate and 218 votes in the House.

    2. Allowing something to expire, like for example the Bush tax cuts, is easy. It takes 0 votes in the Senate and 0 votes in the House.

  • The_Gadfly

    Tax cuts still needs to be an ALL or NOTHING proposition. We’ll agree to keep all of them, or none of them, but not only some of them. The reasons for the tax cuts are the same as they always have been: the economy is already under too much duress. The point is to make it clear to the Dems that they’re going to have to govern instead of demagoguing.

    I’ll be honest: I don’t like your plan. But I’ll back it anyway. I expect you don’t really like it either. With apologies to Churchill, it looks like the worst one except for all the others. Especially that trial balloon Boehner floated today (or was it yesterday?).

  • streiff

    Constitutionally impossible. Obama cannot put in a new tax cut plan. All tax bills must originate in the House.

  • The_Gadfly

    I do, and so far he’s gotten taken on every deal he’s brokered.

    I wouldn’t mind so much if it was ONLY him that was taken. He might learn something from it. But when he gets taken, what that really means is we get taken, and he still gets his commission.

  • The_Gadfly

    No, at best we’re going to be in for a very long decade. If The Big 0 gets his way for the next 2-4, it’ll be another millennium before liberty sees the light of day again. Which is pretty much the only reason I’m willing to back your otherwise horrible plan.

  • jackm

    Why reintroduce some of the Bush tax cuts when they are so evil? So that he can call them the Obama tax cuts!

  • ww2nd95

    He would reintroduce part of them to play politics and hammer us until 2014 for not accepting his Obama Tax Cuts. If it was politically expedient for him to raise the taxes on the middle class, I don’t think he would hesitate one second. However, given how I think he may have the upper hand in this situation, since he’s not running again, if we go over the cliff and he proposes his tax cut, I think he’ll have us backed into a corner. How do we say no to a tax cut for the middle class, without the backlash from the public? The MSM and political pundits, on both sides, would crucify the House (not that they don’t already anyway, but it would more brutal then usual). I just don’t see a winning hand here.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I agree. It’s time for leadership change in both houses.

  • jackm

    So, after the Bush tax cuts expire, and after Obama puts new tax cuts on the table which only apply to the first $250,000 in income, you want Republican congressmen to vote against the tax cuts?

  • streiff

    He cannot do that. All tax bills have to originate in the House.

  • streiff

    1. The President cannot introduce legislation. Period. Only a Representative or Senator can do that.

    2. All tax bills have to originate in the House. This means they have to get past the Rules Committee and then they go to Ways and Means. And then to vote.

  • streiff

    I understand that. But that doesn’t say what you think it does. They can only do that with a taxation bill. Do you think the House is going to pass a tax bill before Jan 1.

  • streiff

    You are beclowning yourself. The Senate can amend a House appropriations bill with its own language but the bill must be a House bill. That is black letter Constitution.

    Why do you think the House will pass such a bill before Jan 1? And why would you think that such a bill would survive conference?

  • streiff

    you can believe in whatever you want, but all revenue bills must be an “H. R.” The Senate can amend it during its deliberations but the Senate cannot introduce a revenue bill on its own.

  • congressworksforus

    You’re wrong. Utterly. “Raising revenue” is not the same thing as “increasing revenue”.

    Buy a dictionary.

  • congressworksforus

    This wont hurt. Dems have repeatedly said that tax cuts aren’t affordable in the current situation, so whatever the cost (over 10 years of course, to give us a big number) is for the tax cuts, the Committee simply insists of equivalent (or more) spending cuts to pay for it.

    Not difficult.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Abstain.
    Because everyone knows that he will never be able to avoid the debt crisis, tax cuts or not, so let’s take neither credit nor blame for either the debt or tax cuts. Although I’m not sure he’ll bother to keep acting.
    Are we here to win a news cycle or win a war against liberalism?

    Give him everything he wants, anyway.

  • jackm

    Challenge your own assumptions. Read the words in the Constitution and judge its meaning for yourself.

  • commonsenseobserver

    We’ll just abstain.

    And keeping part of the Bush tax cuts would require him to acknowledge that they are not richie rich evil, if we can make the argument.

  • streiff

    I sell white flags as a side business. Usually my customers are in France, but you can buy one if you want to.

  • jackm

    I stand by the plain meaning of words in the Constitution.

  • anthonyfroyd

    I remember cringing when Bush said he was taking families of 4 off the tax rolls if they made under 50K a year. Time to get some skin in the game folks. The Bush tax cuts sucked because they were far more progressive than the Clinton era tax cuts.

  • jackm

    Not an accurate (literal) quote of the constitution.

  • rkinroanoke

    good point. I did not recall that.

  • jackm

    If the bill does not raise revenue Article 1, Section 7 is silent on the matter. Meaning it is not prohibited.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Back to reality: we’ll just wait for Boehner to propose, not just a flexible freeze, you know, but actually a flexible spending cut. Yippee!

    Soon we’ll be talking about flexible tax increases.

  • jackm

    That is true. Just as Democrats can erase the Bush tax cuts without a vote, so can the Republicans get the cuts in the sequestration without taking action.

  • streiff

    you forgot the Illuminati in your equation.

    Never take counsel of your fears.
    –T. J. “Stonewall” Jackson, who was a real general

  • jackm

    I really don’t know anything about the Illuminati.
    Whatever happened to Stonewall Jackson?

  • zumkopf

    It doesn’t have to be a House tax bill. That’s how they got ObamaCare through: they took a totally unrelated House bill, stripped out all the language, stuffed in 2300 pages, and presto! A bill that raises revenue. The bill itself started in the House; the fact that the Senate turned it into a tax bill doesn’t (legally) change the fact that it originated in the House. Sneaky, clearly not the intent of the Framers — textbook Democratic maneuvering.

  • celador2

    I agree.The next in line is Eric Cantor, not much change, Not a word of a challenge to either. 10 seats? Media said 5 or 6 and maybe even pick ups by Republicans. That is disgusting.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Give it to them.

    People will remember them like they remember the Carter tax cuts.

  • jackm

    The Senate has been doing this, taking a House tax bill, gutting it and replacing it with a totally different bill, for longer than I have been alive.

  • jackm

    The constitution doesn’t say “revenue bills” must originate in the House.

  • celador2

    Speaking of Newt I read a headline from his newsletter that Boehner should claim a ‘joint mandate’ or something like that. It is bold but so is Newt with his ideas. I miss him as Speaker. We could use a larger than life Speaker.
    Boehner has power as he controls the majoritarian chamber still and can initiate asppropriations and stand up to Obama and Reid. But they will be dysfunctional by our standards and end with with no budget but more CRs and debt ceiling deals in 2013.
    They do only as much as they must. What a way to fund the federal government.

  • jackm

    I agree.

  • celador2

    They rely on our confusion and sense of the inevitable that a last minute patch will fix what ever is the crisis. Media bias is such that debt, budgets are not concerns to do a drumbeat for proper action.

  • celador2

    Boehner can at least insist the cuts are NOW not twenty years or even ten years from now.

  • checkmate2012

    Lol, I’ve heard that same line about MI! What ever happened to gekster?? Anyway, throw Boehner out now…he’s caving before the negotiations have begun! Trump, please send a copy of “The Art of Negotiating” quickly!

  • checkmate2012

    I vote for Mark Levin for Speaker who has repeatedly said that the Speaker of the House does not have to be a member and wants Scott Walker to step up to the plate…Walker declined which leaves Levin on the hook.

  • checkmate2012

    Surely you jest about the Illuminati?? It’s possible and even probable but never thought of it in this context :)

  • checkmate2012

    Who is going to punt- R’s or D’s? Hopefully not as spending cuts have to start yesterday. Hi Dave_A!

  • Dave_A

    Anything can be changed retroactively.

    In this case, it would be the entire congress kicking the ball down the road…

    ‘Since we can’t pass either side’s version, we’re going to just change the dates in these laws, and make it retroactive’….

    Fiscal cliff moved till after the *next* election, shuffle cards, play another hand…

    It may not be the most desirable option – and there is a tad bit of appeal to me in saying ‘Obama baked this cake, let’s make him eat it’ on the cliff…

    But in reality, I expect yet another ‘patch’… It’s what they’ve done every other time ‘tough’ fiscal questions came to a head in this administration… Why do you think Obama hasn’t been able to get his tax-hike through?

    Because every time he has an oppertunity, there’s just enough stuff he wants done ‘more’ being held hostage (eg, unemployment benefits, etc) that a deal is struck to push it all down the line a year or two.

  • Dave_A

    @jackm:

    All legislation must pass BOTH houses of Congress to become law.

    And as actually implemented, all budgetary/financial bills must originate in the House. To the point where if the Senate wants to write a budget bill, they do it as an amendment to something else FROM the House.

  • Dave_A

    Even if the Senate replaces language, the resulting bill still has to pass the House.

    The reason the ‘language game’ worked for Obamacare, is that the House was Democrat-run back then….

  • Dave_A

    Medicare Part D is very popular with the Dems. After all, they wrote it during the ‘Jeffords Period’ between the summer of 01 and the 2002 elections.

    The part they think is ‘bad’, is that we had the common sense to forbid the government from extorting sub-market prices for prescription drugs.

  • checkmate2012

    True that that punt is all they- both parties, seem to accomplish. we need Lucy to pull the football out from both parties! All I ask is for Boehner to shut up and wait to hear the Prez and Reid make their offer before he capitualates…is that too much to ask for the Speaker??? Again, he needs negotiating 101 skills!

  • Dave_A

    Um, anthony:

    Clinton never CUT taxes in all 8 years.

  • Dave_A

    It was part of the deal to get *some* tax-cuts through the 2000-vintage 50/50 Senate, and get us out of the Clinton (.com) recession.

    Even with that ‘deal’ the tax cuts still pushed Jim Jeffords to switch parties, and paved the way for Medicare D

  • checkmate2012

    ‘Obama baked this cake, let’s make him eat it’ – you must have read my “Let Then Eat Cake” diary from last night! My thought’s exactly and not just Obama…the electorate that voted for him! Patches won’t work anymore…we need real solutions that come from the Lefties in charge.

  • checkmate2012

    Weird stuff on RedStated comments Viet71. I read your comment an hour or two ago and yet it’s time stamped 2 minutes ago. I even “voted” for it then as I liked your idea.

  • jpolk84

    Republicans won. We didn’t win the presidency but we gained House seats. So there’s no reason to cave and every reason not to. Those who were sent there were sent to be a line of defense, I believe. They have a job to do and it’s not “build a bridge.”

  • commonsenseobserver

    No, it’s to let Numenor sink while we flee to Middle Earth.

  • checkmate2012

    Agree with Walker and you…just saying Boehner has to go and it doesn’t have to be a House member. That’s all.

  • jimmyneutron

    I agree – hit the gas and get it over with. Best idea I have heard so far.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    Uh, yes he did – he cut capital gains taxes and instituted the per child tax credit. Might have been outweighed by the tax increases he signed early in his term, but Gingrich & co. did get some good tax cutting.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    But printing money is only a temporary fix before the hyperinflation kicks in. Maybe not technically bankruptcy, but a very nasty situation that results when a government gets so far into debt that no one will loan it more money.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    I’m talking about the GOP’s ability to actually pass legislation. They should be able to block new Leftist legislation.

  • Guest

    You can watch the ‘Usual Suspects” full video on youtube for free here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmP502eBEIg

  • toothpick

    Nice idea. Won’t happen. It would require courage.

  • dbkohl

    The VERY First step is for the Caucus to elect a Speaker who is endowed with a backbone in the first place. Paul Ryan would be a fun first choice.

  • dbkohl

    But I read “Raising Revenue” as being the power to set the tax rates. Decreasing the tax rate is still “Raising Revenue” only at a lower rate. Still falls exclusively under the powers given to the House of Representatives, NOT the Senate.

  • rickbillies

    Time to play hardball with the Dems. Voters have a short memory. The Defense Dept. budget is filled with institutionally wasteful programs. The knee jerk reaction at Defense is to cry that we’re gutting the military but the DOD is now analogous to GM. During the GM bankruptcy someone commented that GM had become a health insurance delivery company that happened to make cars. The DOD and many other government departments are engaging in activities that are far outside their area. This approach will accomplish our goals from the House. Remember: the United States government is not the United Way.

  • jonedanger

    Doesn’t matter where the bill originates.

  • jonedanger

    The fatal flaw is assuming Boehner has a spine and will walk away.

  • georgiacricket

    I am done fighting when over 50% of this country voted in liar and a murderer. The only thing I can do is keep praying. When immorality is is promoted as the norm, when the family is attacked by legislation, and faith in evolution is lauded and faith in God is condemned, I find no place for me, other than on my knees. I will protect myself and family, but I will not engage in this world, for I am not of this world.

  • lefthandrightword

    This is the absolute best thinking I’ve seen since the election. Streiff, you are amazing.
    I wish Boehner and his ilk had half the sense that you have. I am retaining your post as a daily reminder of the way to fight this regime through the next four years – if it lasts
    that long. Thank you.

  • commonsenseobserver

    They’ll keep INTRODUCING budgets and free market solutions. But why should they pass them? The American people have voted against them, knowingly or not.

  • onceandfuturerepublican

    He doesn’t need to introduce it. It doesn’t need to pass for the democrats to gain political benefit. In fact, not only would Obama have more money to spend if it doesn’t pass or if republicans refused to introduce it, democrats could then run on the middle class tax cut that republicans went on record refusing to bring to a vote and use it as a central theme to retake the House in 2014. Obama merely needs to point out that “obstructionist” republicans suddenly refuse to support a tax cut when it helps the middle class.

    In the meantime, he gets to spend the extra revenue.

    Win/win for democrats and big government.

  • commonsenseobserver

    No one says we have to oppose it, although we could certainly point out the silliness of it all if he attacks us in order to keep part of the EVIL BOOOSH tax cuts.

    The *new* tax cut would present more of a dilemma. Which is why I say we should just abstain, give them everything they want, and let it burn.

    LET. IT. BURN.
    ELECTIONS. HAVE. CONSEQUENCES.
    THE. PEOPLE. HAVE. SPOKEN.

  • commonsenseobserver

    LET. IT. BURN. Full stop.

  • donr

    What an Interesting date, December 21 2012.

    This date has been mentioned, in history,for over 3000 years,
    It could be the end of life as we know it or a rebirth, I am hoping for the later.

  • wlcjr

    Bush tax cuts have to go. Not only will they continue to be a loser politically, eliminating them will not help the economy or fix our budget problems. But letting them go will shoot down Krugman-style rhetoric and will be a compromise position we can draw a narrative from.
    In general, our approach should be to give Obama enough economic rope to hang himself. If we really beleive what we said about his poor understanding of economics, then he will surely fail if given enough rope. Sorry but that means we will suck eggs for a while but that is coming anyway I think. Better he get the blame than us.

  • perdido

    I guess I am just not getting it.

    The “Fisical Clift” is exactly what plays into the hands of the Republicans, it seems to me. It makes actual, less money spent now, cuts. This is anathema to Democrats. It raises taxes. This is a black eye for the Democrats and the Republicans can beat them over the head for ‘raising taxes in a recession’. It cuts defense, (currently bloated) which gives the Republicans an opening to flail the irresponsible Dems.

    All this hand wringing over the “depression” it will cause is nonsense. The guys that own the money (Fed) are not about to let that happen again. They have the tiger by the tail and they know a major goof will cost them control of the currency.

    Let it fall. It’s overtly conservative and hurts the Dems and the welfarists.

  • mln80

    I agree with the premise, but Obama’s inability to introduce a tax bill does not prevent him, the Dems, and the MSM from hammering the piss out of the GOP for raising taxes on the “middle class” and there’s all the fuel that’s needed to lose the House in 2014. I think it is suicide.

    I fully agree on the idea of letting the Dems have what they want (to some extent) to prove how wrong most of their policies are for the country. Instead of letting all the tax cuts expire, the GOP needs to put together a plan that allows the Dems to tax the “evil rich”, but not tax the small businesses that file as individuals.

    This way, the GOP takes the offensive on the tax issue and puts the Dems in a position to say they want to raise taxes on small business (which is almost as bad as saying tax the middle class), not just the millionaires and billionaires as they claim.

    The revenues from taxing the over $250,000 is not going to make a dent in the debt, especially if you take out the businesses. This is something we conservatives can’t seem to get Obama voters to understand and there’s nothing like live data. I’d argue to maybe make it $500,000 or $1M since it still appeases the masses that want to stick it to the rich and $250,000 isn’t super rich in some areas. I see this as a small give on taxes, and the super-rich seem to pour a lot of support to Obama anyway.

    The GOP can then demand spending cuts for this revenue increase and really start hammering home on getting to a balanced budget. And nobody watches C-SPAN, let the American people know the GOP is compromising and working on solutions by getting the word out in any way possible. Hiding behind the GOP’s stance of “no tax cuts for the wealthy” has enabled the Dems to avoid any real discussion about reducing spending and they’ve been able to float ideas they won’t support like $10 of cuts for $1 of revenue.

    There’s more I’d like to see the GOP do, but I’m already long-winded enough. Its time to get agressive and make the Dems show the American people what they really stand for without shooting ourselves in the foot.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    False hope here. If we let all the tax hikes happen, will that stop the Democrats from clamoring for more spending day in and day out? No.
    The ‘run off the cliff’ is the plan B, but plan A should be to hold the line on taxes.

  • streiff

    this is silly.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    ‘Let the tax cuts expire; that’s what they want.”
    Idiotic approach. When Republicans won, did the Democrats give us what we want? NO!
    Did the Republican majority in the House get elected on “lets roll over on spending and taxes”? NO!

    That said, it would be fine to play chicken and try the “save all the Bush tax rates or no dice” approach. but understand that a) WE NEED A PROPOSAL TO STAND BEHIND and b) that proposal is:
    No more higher taxes and tax rates, and cut the spending.

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  • johnms

    “All tax bills have to originate in the house” — this has already been circumvented. The Senate takes a spending bill passed by the House, then “amends” it by completely replacing the title and the contents — everything except the bill number. Now they can proceed under the legal fiction that this spending bill originated in the House and send it back to the House for reconciliation. This is exactly how they passed Obamacare — they took HR3590, a spending bill to benefit veterans — and replaced it with the Obamacare text.

  • grumpy_old_soldier

    Let’s roll!

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