You are asking the wrong question. The question is not whether you can aggregate voter preferences accurately. If you spend all your time trying to micro-target your message to particular slices of the electorate, the remainder of the electorate will not believe you stand for anything. People who would be more inclined to support you theoretically will not be inspired to vote for you even if they are more likely to agree with you. Elections are more like picking stocks than selling soap. You have to think like an algorithmic trader who does not care if he looses many many bets so long as more than half of them are correct.

Obama won a 1970′s style election where he got his people to the polls. http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/11/19/ground-dems-outhustled-gop/ The GOP convention featured many prominent non-white faces and yet all we hear from GOP consultants is we have to target our message to attract more support from one group or another. This is precisely the wrong approach. Obama lost almost ten million votes and still won. Why? Because he got the diehards to the polls.

The GOP needs to inspire its diehards and get every last one of them to the polls. Wall Street is filled with algorithmic trading millionaires who lose 49% of their bets. Stop thinking you can say one thing to one group and another thing to another group and the rest of use will not hear. Focus on having a clear and CONSISTENT message that reaches the 51%.