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Raising Taxes… in Return for What?

It’s not like we haven’t been through this recently.  In fact, we’ve seen this rodeo less than 18 months ago.  When will Republicans learn their lesson?

Republicans came to power in 2011 promising to put a stop to Obama’s addiction to spending and growing government.  They pledged to cut $100 billion immediately.  They had a number of opportunities to leverage their control over the budget to extract transformational change.  Most notably, the Democrats were forced to come before Congress and ask for a renewal of their credit card in the form of a debt ceiling increase.  Instead of ensuring that this would be the last dose of crack handed out to the spending addicts, Republicans gave Obama a free $2.1 trillion debt limit increase, which effectively saved him from the embarrassment of another debt limit plea before his reelection.

Amidst the copious pages of commentary and punditry written on the fiscal cliff fisticuffs, the growth of our debt – the most important component of the fiscal cliff – has been lost in the pandemonium.  Have the Republicans forgotten the grand bargain of the Budget [Out of] Control Act?  The very deal that was supposed to lead to our fiscal solvency has engendered a higher rate of spending than the previous year!  According to the CBO’s monthly budget report, our deficit for the first two months of FY 2013 is higher than it was at this time in FY 2012, despite the increase in revenue.  Spending has actually increased by $22 billion from last year.

So while Obama and his minions are demanding a new increase in the debt limit, has anyone bothered to inform the American people that the reason we are confronting the new debt ceiling is because the previous grand bargain failed.  In fact, we have consumed the entirety of the $2.1 trillion charge card in just 16 months!  Congress raised the debt limit from $14.294 trillion on August 1.  The debt now stands at $16.338 trillion.

Hence, even though revenue has actually increased since the nadir of the recession, we are still racking up more debt because spending on entitlements has increased.  When will we learn the lesson?

Oh, and by the way, conservatives who voted against the debt limit increase got booted off committees.

The entire narrative surrounding the negotiations is focused on the tax side.  The only question is whether Boehner will agree to increase taxes through eliminating deductions or through raising the top marginal rates to 50-75% the amount Obama is demanding.  Either way, it’s clear that Boehner has no problems with the spending side of the deal.   After they work out the minor difference on the degree of tax increases, the deal will be finalized.

Where are the spending cuts?

Remember that Obama has increased the debt by $5.72 trillion over the past 4 years.  It took from the founding of the Republic until the turn of the millennium to rack up that much debt.  So when both sides offer plans to cut spending off the CBO baseline, they are offering plans that will permanently lock in 97% of Obama’s unprecedented growth of government.  Michael Tanner explains it like this in an article at National Review:

On the spending side, once all the gimmicks are stripped away, Republicans suggest spending $1.4 trillion less than the current baseline over ten years. Federal spending would thus total $5.27 trillion in 2022, about $900 billion more than if it had simply grown at the rate of inflation plus population. This would add an additional $5.14 trillion in debt by 2022, and the deficit in that year would be $540 billion.

We are literally debating a distinction of spending $46.5 trillion over 10 years vs. $45.5 trillion.  Furthermore, Republicans are congratulating themselves for their farm bill, which raises spending from $605 billion to $959 billion instead of $992 billion.  And don’t even begin to mention Obamacare.

Esau abdicated his birthright for a bowl of lentil soup.  Republicans are willing to sell their birthright for nothing.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project

COMMENTS

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    It is very disheartening to see so much focus on the high income tax cuts. I’d gladly cheer a bill that gave Obama what he wants on those if we got a major spending reform in return – something like repealing Obamacare, enacting the Ryan Medicaire reform, or repealing/reforming other programs sufficient to save a few hundred billion per year. But it looks like we are going to give away one of the most effective policies of the Bush administration in order to preserve other tax cuts that the Democrats claim to favor themselves. The GOP should have said up front that everything is on the table, but there have to be major spending reforms.

  • rustyoldgarand

    Yes, and it’s also disturbing that so many people still think that threatening not to pay our country’s debt has anything to do with responsible (or effective) politics. If your wife spends more than she ought to with the visa card, do you threaten to bankrupt the family in order to get her to stop? What kind of lesson is that to teach your kids?

  • streiff

    I think that logic is flawed from a lot of perspectives. It isn’t like the spending isn’t going to bankrupt the family.

  • gmat

    Why raise taxes at all? Why not focus on raising GDP, which will not only increase revenues, but has the added virtue of getting people back to work, thus reducing [safety net] spending.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    Because the Democrats control the Senate and White House, and they don’t care about GDP or the budget deficit. Their priorities are expanding government spending and punishing achievers with high tax rates. For the last few decades we’ve denied them their punishing tax rates at the cost of letting them have their spending. We can’t afford that anymore and have to stop their spending. Since we didn’t beat them at the polls, the price of cutting spending will probably have to be higher taxes.

  • gmat

    You’re right, I know.

    It just seems like there’s a void in the political narrative, ie, growth and jobs, that the GOP could naturally fill. And every person you get back to work is one less person depending on government spending.

  • mtmnd

    I agree. It is on the spending side where the GOP has utterly failed. As you and Tanner point out, neither party has taken the spending issue seriously. From the article you link:

    Most significant, neither the president nor Republicans are offering any serious structural reforms to entitlements, especially Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Those three programs alone constitute 44 percent of federal spending this year, and by 2022, they will amount to more than 54 percent of the federal budget.

    But I expect as much. What frustrates me, though, is that the conservatives in Congress haven’t tried to take more of a leadership roll by coming up with their own solution which actually took an axe to spending. Honestly and explicitly. We’ve got to start being grown ups about these things and honestly identifying what needs to be done.

    Where I disagree with Tanner is that he seems to think that the GOP leadership is at least trying to be fiscally responsible by proposing revenue increases through closing loopholes. To the contrary, the GOP leadership too afraid of the political ramifications of even identify their proposed tax hikes! They sent a message to Obama that they would acquiesce on taxes, but they don’t even have the guts to identify those the areas where they will raise taxes. They are cowards all the way around. They have sold out on both sides of the equation, yet they move no closer to fixing the problem from either side.

  • commonsenseobserver

    In exchange for some savings, I suppose, but, um, the biggest reason, I would suppose, has always been to prevent even bigger, across-the-board tax increases which some Democrats appear not to mind, and which others seem to view as a fallback option.

  • carolina

    In reality GDP measures SPENDING. That is why the dems are so opposed to cutting spending, as it will lower GDP. What we need more than anything is economic growth. This means we need tax reform. We also need entitlement reform. It is insane that we are encouraging folks to stay on welfare programs because they can’t live as well by working (in the early years of a career). My primary concern is removing the fiscal barriers to starting and growing a new business. We have a major problem in that area, which continue to get worse.

  • carolina

    Agree! I love the way Rubio puts it: “we don’t need more taxes, we need more tax payers”

  • commonsenseobserver

    What House Republicans put forward was a very common sense plan that got spending under control in exchange for avoiding a default. In the end, though, that wasn’t enough for the Democrats, and neither was the Boehner plan, so in the end, we passed the Budget Control Act., but even if we hadn’t, the Democrats should be an awful lot more careful with the finger-pointing about hostage-taking and sacred cows.

    Now, once again, Republicans have put forward another plan with spending cuts and base broadening measures (a.k.a tax hikes, or as some trolls like to call it, manipulation of the tax code on behalf of the top 2%). And this time, the fight doesn’t even involve the debt ceiling. Get spending under control, and we can avoid bankruptcy, If you don’t, well, we were going bankrupt anyway.

  • commonsenseobserver

    It’s pretty easy. Just cap the overall amount of deductions, especially for higher-income earners.

    But, yes, we ought to come up with a serious alternative. In fact, Ryan should be taking his plan, combining it with bolder plans, adding more details on spending cuts and base broadening, and ensuring that the budget balances much sooner (say, in 2020) without relying on dynamic scoring. Entitlement reforms will have to come much sooner than 2022 as well. And welfare reform ought to be expanded to other programs. Many programs should be devolved, including the highways, with a gas tax that no politician has dared to raise for a decade (no matter how much we dislike tax increases, such taxes do have to keep pace with inflation to be remotely sustainable…)

  • commonsenseobserver

    The Democrats don’t believe in relying on growth (or creating it). In any case, fiscal chaos will make it impossible.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Obama wants $1.6 trillion in revenue? In return, will he agree to $6.4 trillion in real savings, without the gimmicks?

    He will never agree, even though worldwide historical experience has shown that fiscal consolidation plans in which tax increases consist of less than 20% of total deficit reduction work best.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Yes, and that is a sea change since at least the 1980s for Congressional Dems and 2000 for their presidential candidates

  • checkmate2012

    Has anyone wondered about the WARN Act? Recall O said in the last debate we wouldn’t go off the cliff which was a surprise to everyone! He said he’d pay the fines for companies and the severance. Now Geitner explicited said they are ready to go off the cliff if they don’t get their tax rate increases. The House should pass a bill now stating no fed money for companies that didn’t WARN.
    I think the only reason Boehner agreed to $800B in tax increases via deductions is to avoid the fiscal cliff. He put forth a good faith effort to avoid all taxes going up. I don’t like it but he put forth a fair deal to compromise and got ridiculed by O.

    I hope that Boehner learns that he can’t compromise/negotiate with someone that has no intention of same whatsoever. So, keep these 3 issues separate:

    1- tax hikes for two brackets: he tried and shouldn’t cave anymore. Pass a House bill to extend all and if O vetos it and lets all rates go up, so be it and O owns it. Call his bluff.

    2- sequestration: the other half of the fiscal cliff no one is talking about this since Dems want it but at least it will cut spending. O can’t double count the “war ending savings”. We’ll be ok and a law was signed. All prints are on this one.

    3- debt limit: no deal. Let the prez find savings to keep the U.S. expenditures paid which are outlined in the Constitution-interest, principle and SS pensions. Cut backs will be required, luckily.
    Boehner needs to get tough and let the prez squirm for his truly immature actions.

  • rustyoldgarand

    That is certainly true, but threatening to preemptively do exactly what you are trying to avoid is neither prudent nor credible. No one was actually willing to shoot the hostage, and for good reason, so the dems simply called our bluff. I want to get spending cuts passed quite badly, but I’m not under the illusion that we can simply have our way without compromise. If we can get meaningful spending cuts in exchange for a tax raise on the top 2%, then we need to take that deal and be happy that the Bush era tax cuts are enshrined long-term for all but the top earners.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Perhaps. Which may be why government shutdowns may be a smarter instrument than the threat of default.

    The Democrats have indicated no willingness at all to agree to meaningful spending cuts.

  • commonsenseobserver

    More taxpayers who are making more money, that is.

  • rustyoldgarand

    “…in exchange for avoiding a default”

    …is a funny way of putting it. The GOP causus in the house was basically trying win concessions by offering the president the authority to pay the bills that the congress, itself, had accumulated. It was extortion rather than negotiation, and it failed. We didn’t get the reform we wanted, nor did we “win the exchange” politically in the minds of the American voter.

    I understand perfectly well that the current scuffle is about the consequences of last summer’s debt ceiling negotiations, and not another debt ceiling scuffle, though I also understand that we will come up against the debt ceiling again quite soon – in February, I believe, based on the latest estimates I’ve seen – so tactics for dealing with the debt ceiling are germane to the current discussion.

    Look, it’s abundantly clear that we need to cut spending, and I’m all for using whatever leverage we have, but the brinksmanship of last summer simply wasn’t effective, and we need to cut that carp. The “grand bargain” Obama offered last summer was better than what he is offering today. Maybe we should have taken it then?

  • rustyoldgarand

    Yes, government shutdown is still a viable tool, and I have no problem with shutting down Washington in order to gain leverage. I am all for getting spending cuts by hook or by crook, but debt brinksmanship simply isn’t an effective tool.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Not really. Then, and now, he still insisted against real spending cuts without gimmicks and tricks.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Fact: 73% of jobs created over the last five months have been for government bureaucrats.

    Fact: Workforce participation is near three-decade lows.

    Fact: More Americans are still out of work, and many are more dependent on the government, than when the President took office.

    Fact: Income inequality has risen as the poor become poorer, the middle class earns less, and the rich are insulated from over-tax, over-spend, over-regulate and over-borrow policies.

  • WmCraig

    We need to win to have power. So lets focus on tactics to counter Democrat propaganda. Time to change the conversation. We can’t stop the tax increases. What we can do is step in and focus on the way the money is spent. We can back Obama in the corner. Oh, and we can hang on to a portion of the Bush tax cuts for the next election.

    How? Give Obama what he wants but require include a provision that restores Medicare advantage. This serves two purposes.

    1. We save some of the Bush tax cuts against Obama.

    2. And most important, we go on record defending seniors and put Obama on the defensive for cutting medicare advantage. For those that don’t know that is a free market solution to deliver medicare and supplemental coverage. We support free market solutions right? We are the champions of seniors citizens right?

    We could cut into the percentage points senor citizens who don’t trust Republicans by showing them it is the Democrats who are changing the rules and stealing from them. We go on record doing something for them and while Obama gets his money we get a benefit out of each penny he spends. He is going to spend it anyway.

    And the Bush tax cuts? Right now Obama is working on a bill to give a tax cut to his definition of the working class to be introduced the minute the Bush tax cuts expire. It will be known eventually as the Obama tax cuts. Obama wants the Bush tax cuts to expire, because anything with a Bush label on it defeats his monotheistic self image. How many people think we get more votes in 2014 defending or arguing against the Obama Tax cuts?

  • http://abo.dr-rjp.com DrRJP

    fIt’s very simple. Unless Obama and the Senate can agree on a budget and not a limitless debt ceiling and endless credit card, there will no tax increases on anyone and the Bush tax cuts will stay in place.

    Either spending cuts happen immediately or no deal. Obama does not care about using revenues to help people. He wants to destroy the Republicans and assume dictatorial power.

    We have a goverenmet comprised of three branches. Obama wants all the power in his branch, and if the house does not act now, he’ll achieve it.

    SO, The Republicans also need to get a spine and a pair of brass balls and file impeachment charges against Obama on the dozen impeachable acts committed by him, starting off with treason, giving aid and comfort to our enemies, refusing to aid Amb. Stevens, two Navy Seals and a fourth victim in Benghazi and watching them die in real time, perjury about the cause of the attack, perjury about their requests for help, perjury about using Benghazi as a site to transfer weapons to Al Qaeda headed for Syria, selling guns and grenades to Mexican drug cartels via Fast & Furious, and using it as a false flag to violate our 2nd Amendment, accessory to the murder of Border Agent Brian Terry, illegal recess appointments, illegally bypassing votes of Congress to cut off aid to terrorist groups (Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad), inviting known terrorists into the White House, giving aid to foreign countries for abortion in violation of Congressional laws against it, ACORN for voter fraud, offering Stesak a job if he did not run for office, firing whistleblower Gerald Walpin who undocered fraud committed by Obama’s friend, violating the Logan Act (twice), going to war in Libya w/o congressional approval, acepting campaign donations from forgeign countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt (money laundering our foreign aid).

    Besides impeachment, Obama has also been usurping the office of President via voter fraud and identity fraud having never proven his identity and citizenship at birth.

  • gmat

    Make what impossible? Growth?

    Growth is the only way forward, even if it’s modest, like 3% real. There’s a crisis of long-term unemployment going on, meanwhile, as Mr. Horowitz points out, we are making meaningless distinctions between various insignificant amounts of spending cuts.

    Why not hold real spending constant, hold tax rates where they are, and concentrate on doing things that put people to work? Such as lowering corporate tax rates.

    Then government spending shrinks as a % of GDP while revenues go up. That’s a conversation worth having.

  • commonsenseobserver

    There is actually a long-term debt crisis, you know, and some people actually want to solve it instead of relying on growth which the Democrats will never allow.

    Holding spending constant in real terms is hardly enough to balance the budget for the foreseeable future, much less restore the state of public finances and the safety net.

    When we are unable to create confidence by getting our fiscal house in order, all the supply-side growth policies in the world will do no good. The same applies to full austerity without growth.

    Growth comes when government is limited and prudent, when public finances are sustainable and stable, and work, saving, investment and entrepreneurship are not hindered. We cannot rely on the last alone to achieve the former.

  • gmat

    “Holding spending constant in real terms is hardly enough to balance the budget for the foreseeable future”

    Holding real spending constant, with 3% growth in the economy, balances the budget in 10 years, ie, at that point, the current amount of govt spending will be < 19% GDP.

    In 15 years, govt spending is 16% GDP, and you have 3% GDP annually to apply to the debt. By 2037 you have retired $8.5 trillion in debt. By 2047 you've retired another $11 trillion in debt.

    That sounds to me like getting our fiscal house in order.

  • gmat

    Could you say more about that? What do you see as fiscal barriers to starting and growing a business?

  • gmat

    right. the question is: who is advocating for growth and jobs?

  • commonsenseobserver

    That would depend on low and stable inflation. And robust growth.
    Neither of which is likely to materialize under the policies of this administration.

    You can’t just say “hold real spending constant” and expect the spending problem to fix itself with across-the-board cuts. Number one, politicians will never let wholesale, indiscriminate cuts happen. Number two, politicians will never have the courage to make the tough decisions to reform specific programs if they can get away with “growth”.

    And there’s no guarantee that tax revenue will be at 19% of GDP (though that’s not the point) if we enact large tax cuts without accompanying tax reform and other supply-side measures, including deregulation.

    The federal government continues to be far too bloated for any hope of significant growth without bold and swift reform.

    In any case, you seem to agree that fiscal chaos will make growth impossible. Growth has to be part of the solution, but is not the only part. So I don’t know what we’re arguing about.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Payroll tax, for one, even though many Conservatives will disagree with me.

    Of course, past attempts by Obama to encourage hiring with gimmicky holidays and credits and other goodies haven’t done much good. Making it clear that cutting the employer payroll tax (or jobs tax) is hardly adequate. And it would have to be coupled with comprehensive entitlement and tax reform to maximize simplicity and stability.

    And Obamacare. And the welfare explosion. And government debt.

    Not to mention a lack of confidence due to tax, spend, borrow and regulate policies, including hits to community banks and investors.

    All these have severe impacts both on the supply and demand sides, creating a vicious cycle of economic instability.

    House Republicans have already moved forward with many proposals, and some have even been enacted, but it’s still inadequate.