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“Next Time We’ll Really Stick it to Obama”

A common tactic used by someone who fears confrontation is to contrive an excuse for not battling his adversary at the present, while promising to deal harshly with him in the future.  That’s how the GOP has operated with Obama in all of the budget battles over the past two years.  It’s always ‘the next fight.’

There is an emerging consensus from some conservatives inside and outside of Congress that we have no leverage on the tax fight and are thus compelled to give in on the higher tax rates.  To that end, they advocate voting present on an extension of the tax rates sans the highest two rates, so that the extension will go through for the middle class without having to own the tax increase on the higher brackets.  However, they contend that our real leverage will come with the debt ceiling fight a month later.  Then, they assert, the narrative will be all about spending cuts.  No spending cuts from Obama; no debt ceiling increase, goes the rationale.

Honestly, I don’t disagree with the premise behind some of this.  I’ve been saying for a long time that I would be willing to compromise on something if we would stand and fight on at least one front to force transformational change, such as free market entitlement reform, elimination of a number of discretionary departments, or a balanced budget amendment.  I’ve also been saying for a long time that the debt ceiling fight will provide us with the biggest opportunity to force those changes.

The problem is that unicorns don’t fly.  For the same reason why Boehner and the boys are scared to fight now; for the same reason they were scared to fight a dozen other times, including during the first debt ceiling fight in 2011, they will be just as scared in January.  Nothing will change.  It is incredible how credulous some folks can be when they place their hopes and aspirations in a leadership that has shown they will never fight.

For those of you who are willing to retreat now in the hopes of fighting during the debt ceiling battle, remember this incontrovertible reality:  Republicans will never let the deadline pass without raising the debt ceiling, and they have already communicated that fear to the Democrats a long time ago.  The same problem we had in 2011 is still relevant.  Once Democrats know that Republicans are not willing to stand by their conditions for raising the debt ceiling, they will never accede to any changes, much less a balanced budget.  They will wait out the clock and watch the GOP cave.

If you believe that there is no way around the fiscal cliff other than retreat, that’s fine.  But don’t fool yourself into believing that the debt ceiling will bring us more success.  It’s not the situation that is the problem; it’s the players on the field.

The only solution at this point is to pass a clean extension while the public is paying attention (they already did so several months ago, but nobody remembers).  Pass a full extension of the tax cuts retroactive to January 1 along with the GOP sequester replacement bill, and leave town for Christmas.  They should also add in a repeal of all the Obamacare tax hikes and toss in an additional tax cut for the middle class, such as a payroll tax cut extension (just make it permanent already!)  Every tax bill has to originate in the House anyway.  In that sense, the House has more leverage.  Then, they need to pursue an aggressive media offensive accusing Obama of increasing taxes on everyone so he can punitively punish the rich.  They need to rip him on the Obamacare tax hikes on the working class and eviscerate him from blocking a new middle class tax cut.

There is no easy way around this debacle, but the least we can do is clearly preserve our brand as the party of lower taxes, while concurrently pursuing a strategy that will change the narrative and place Obama on defense.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project

COMMENTS

  • lonelyinthemiddle

    Agreed on the media issue. I like the nature of this strategy, but the one issue I see is the strategy is predicated on the ability to “pursue an aggressive media offensive”. In what arena will this offensive be initiated?

    Understand that Foxnews, for better or worse, is completely ignored by those the conservative movement needs to convince.

    Look, I’ll never be as conservative as some on this blog, and a lot of folks here could care less about what I think. I get that.

    But there are a lot of us our there in the middle open to conservative ideas, and our numbers can sway the balance. However, in my circles, Foxnews and MSNBC are seen as two sides of a meaningless coin. Children screaming at each other from across the room, Hannity and Ed Shultz mixing together in an amalgam of a single meaningless partisan blowhard.

    I consider myself a thoughtful pragmatist who is actively seeking a better understanding of the conservative viewpoint. Often I find it here, which is great, but the reach of a blog is insufficient when compared to TV. I’m just not sure where such a fight can be fought, let alone be won.

  • plh

    Thank you for your constructive input. By “pragmatist,” I assume you mean you’d like to support what “works.” But to do that, one must define the goals toward which we should be working. The issue that divides us is smaller, more limited Government as opposed to bigger, more intrusive Government. Constitutional conservatism believes in the former, and sites such as Redstate or the Madison Project can be very helpful in presenting the conservative philosophy and why it works when implemented. I don’t think we can do much to change the mainstream media, but that doesn’t mean we should waver. We need to continue getting our message out, and even if the media spins or filters it, the more often we get it out to as many national and local outlets as possible, the more of it gets through to the public. Incidentally, except for things like election night coverage and televised sporting events, I don’t get my information for the mainstream media anymore either.

  • lonelyinthemiddle

    Hard to argue with that. I think the argument that the government is too unwieldy and involved in our day to day lives is something that has legs to the centrist.

    What happened was George Bush, or rather, the spending that happened during his tenure. Now, I’m not blaming GW for everything in the way that hard core liberals will, that’s not where I’m at with all this.

    What happened to a lot of us is we believed the Republicans would reign in spending and be smarter on foreign policy. After Clinton, a lot of us decided to vote Republican. GW seemed like a decent guy, and I liked some of his ideas. “Let’s give these guys a shot” we said. We got burned. We got burned real bad.

    For a lot of folks in the middle, it’s hard to come back after that. Republicans to us spend just the same, just on other things, and they supplement that spending with a healthy hatred for gay folks and what they do in their bedroom for some reason.

    Maybe I just talked myself into supporting a third party.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    The “lay low and wait for reinforcements” strategy made a fair amount of sense prior to the election. Compare the strategies employed by the Dems when they took over Congress in 2006 with what the GOP did in 1994. The Republicans immediately tried to enact their agenda, though most of it was blocked by Clinton. By 1996 they had lost enough popularity that Clinton was able to get re-elected running against them. After that their numbers gradually eroded and their agenda effectively ground to a halt. The Dems took a different tact after 2006. They avoided major confrontations with Bush, let funding and authorization for Iraq get through, and basically didn’t do anything to tick people off. By 2008 people trusted them not to do anything crazy and they got the Presidency plus a filibuster-proof Senate. Which they used to pass Obamacare, stimulus, etc.

    Unfortunately, the GOP’s attempt to emulate the Democrats’ 2006 strategy gained them the same electoral results as 1996, but without having made the limited gains that the GOP won in 1995. I suggest that the reason was that in both cases the GOP Presidential nominee’s record was incompatible with the principles that had brought victory to the party two years earlier. But the country can’t afford to wait another four years for at least part of the government to get serious about reducing spending and do whatever is necessary to save it from Obamacare.

  • Martin Knight

    I was nodding along until I got to “… aggressive media offensive” and I kinda chuckled.

    Republicans conducting an “aggressive media offensive” is sorta like a horse riding a bicycle down the street. I doubt Boehner and Co. can even conceive of the idea.

    And what’s more, even if they get it off the ground, the consultants they’ll hire to spearhead the effort will make sure the last thing anyone would think of the entire thing is that it was “aggressive.” It will be nothing more than a bunch of anodyne content-free ads (where the money is, after all) that will end up leaving the party with even less support and less money.

    Not to poo-poo your idea out of hand, but we’re talking of the Stupid Party here.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Punitively punish the rich doesn’t sound bad enough.

    Small business workers? Savers?

  • commonsenseobserver

    I think he believes that his base IS his legacy.

  • Kyle-MI

    I find it hard to take serious people who complain about GW Bush and then say they can’t go back to the GOP after experiencing four years of Obama busting the budget so bad it makes GW Bush look like a Scotsman. You got burned on Bush, but not on Obama? Really?

  • Kyle-MI

    We did not win the Senate in 2010, and, even if we had, it would still have been a split government. Unless you have a veto proof majority, with a divided government you are always forced to compromise. It made sense to hold out with the possibility of change (for both Senate and Presidency) in 2012. With the solid gains in the House and Senate of 2010, it looked like momentum was on our side.

  • joshinca

    Then, they need to pursue an aggressive media offensive…

    These house republicans have proven incapable of pursuing any media offensive. In fact, they have demonstrated a complete lack of a spine.

    They still hold the upper hand because they can refuse to pass any appropriation at all, which would force the dems to quickly cave, but are too scared of being called mean names by Jo Scarborough and the rest of the media clowns to play hardball.

  • WmCraig

    Boehner’s team didn’t hold out for change, they surrender the momentum by doing absolutely nothing with the power they were granted.They had the power to stop spending. Yes it would have shut down the government but we had momentum, opportunity and a mandate. Voting in those Republicans did nothing because Obama simply stopped creating budgets and started printing money. Now the mandate has changed. We will never have a veto proof majority and highly unlikely we will ever win the oval office or the Senate.

  • ohiohistorian

    Daniel, you really tick me off with your comment on making the reduced payroll tax permanent. What is the reason given for items such as the Earned Income Tax Credit expansion? I have always been told it was to offset the “unfairness” of the payroll tax. But isn’t now granting a roll-back of that same tax sort of like having your cake and eating it also?

  • ohiohistorian

    Spend a few million on infomercials. Probably more likely to succeed than getting the media to support a conservative idea.

  • joshinca

    The average voter is not politically involved and only loosely follows the actions of the national government. Which makes them susceptible to media lies.

    The Bush’s deregulation cause the depression meme is a case in point. A majority of people believe that bs, despite the fact that there was no deregulation during the Bush administration.

  • Kyle-MI

    First, we did not get a mandate in 2012. A mandate would have been retaking the Senate.

    Second, how did the shutting down the government work the last time we tried it?

    Third, the path we are on is unsustainable. The economy is still not improving, and Obama does not have Bush to blame anymore. Even if the GOP House gets the blame and the Dems recapture the House, it is still unsustainable. At some point, the economy will be bad and there will be no GOP left to blame.

  • joshinca

    Second, how did the shutting down the government work the last time we tried it?

    Pretty well, it led to the only real cuts in federal spending since 1947.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Aye. But it’s far better not to let it expire any time soon. I’d prefer if we came up with our “tax holiday” of sorts, in the form of personal accounts.

  • Kyle-MI

    And I am still not taking them and their arguments seriously. Especially when they come here to Redstate. The only way to educate people like this is to call them on it when they are making illogical decisions.

  • Kyle-MI

    No, it eventually lead to the spending problems of the GW Bush administration. It lead to the reelection of Clinton. It lead to the congressional GOP always playing defense with smaller and smaller majorities after the shutdown.

  • WmCraig

    The brand is not worth preserving if it does nothing to change the demographics of the map. Democrats control the big blue cities California, the Rust Belt, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic states and Florida. Standing up for conservative principles is meaningless outside of a constitutional convention. That doesn’t mean we should give up on restoring this great nation, but to do anything we need political power. How does protecting America from the consequences of their voting decisions help improve those decisions. Want to really help, stop standing on our principles and start attacking the Democrats power. Negotiate for things that drive a wedge between the establishment’s voters and the establishment. We know that the progressives are enslaving people with their patronage, so use it. Trade capitulation on taxes for focused spending. Make Obama restore Medicare Advantage. Make Obama tie educations funds to vouchers. Make them live up to their own ideals. Obama is just going to spend money and Boehner is never going to say no. So focus on how the money is spent, make Obama and the Progressives expose themselves as the lying, oppressive establishment they are through their own tools.

  • joshinca

    I don’t know whether that guy was being disingenuous or not.

    But I do know that a lot of voters that are generally sympathetic to small government positions have been seriously misinformed by lying democrat politicians and their media shills.

    I think it’s important to keep in mind that not everyone that voted for Obama wants a larger welfare state. Even Obama claims that he does not want one. And the media validates and amplifies that claim.

  • joshinca

    How do you make the connection between the government shut down and GW Bush?

    The republican Congress was doing fine after the shutdown and subsequent deals with Clinton. It was the impeachment that killed them. (Not to say that he shouldn’t have been convicted, but it’s indisputable that it was very unpopular politically).

  • WmCraig

    Give the media something to sell. Capitulate on taxes (keeping the Bush tax cut definition) and demand that education funds delivered as block grants be tied to students, and allow the parents of students to collect them through vouchers. Demand that Medicare Advantage, a free market quality program for seniors as a medicare management and supplement tool, be restored.

    Turn us into the party that protects the rights of parents to a good education at the facility of their choice (a big deal with ethnic communities especially new immigrants) and the party that protects the promises made to seniors, who paid for most of what the votes bought through there non-avoidable Social Security taxes over the years.

    Turn the conversation around and the media will notice.The battle that follows will get publicity and put the President “off tele-promter” in the process.

  • Kyle-MI

    If they did so great on the budget under Clinton, why didn’t they keep it up with Bush? Why didn’t they stand up Bush on spending? It was not as if Bush was threatening vetos of spending cuts. The GOP survived under Clinton by increased spending and earmarks. We had lower deficits because of increased revenue from a booming economy. (Remember the dot com bubble?)

    And we stunk politically. The people gave Clinton the credit for the economy and the budget. They still do. It is part of what got Obama reelected.

  • checkmate2012

    Good ideas WmCraig. The Reps. should also start using the Obama tax increases and steer clear of the Bush tax cuts. Language matters.

  • wbf

    Gary North wrote this morning, “Government really is out of control. Congress can do nothing about the spending. Congress is like Flip Wilson’s character Geraldine, “The devil made me do it.”

  • edintexas

    The problem with your theory is that Republican politicians have, for decades, essentially proven themselves unable to communicate with anyone other than themselves. Ronald Reagan was a sterling exception, not a norm.

    So expecting them to be able to “Beat him with that…” is simply expecting hogs to fly.

  • http://profiles.google.com/martin.knght Martin Knight

    Yes, very clumsily worded, indeed. Including the crack about conservatives “deeming” gay lives and families “less valuable.” What’s that supposed to mean; we think someone who murders a gay guy should be punished less than if he killed a straight guy?

    As for why we would wish to deny them … well, it isn’t for fun and profit. It isn’t hate. It’s the simple fact that Conservatives look beyond Stage 1 – gays feel good, YAYYYYY!!! Liberals stop here. Conservatives, on the other hand, wonder what happens next?

    I ask, given your support for gay marriage; if two adult siblings apply for a marriage license, will you be in support of the state issuing them one? Or not? If not, why?

  • shr3dr

    I think this is different. Obama has very specific leverage on the tax rate issue. But on the larger issue of the need to reduce the deficit, America has a consensus. The differences are on what and how to cut. Obama cannot escape the weight of the broader issue. Even the mainstream media will not let him off the hook. As long as Obama can keep Republicans fighting amongst themselves over the tax issue, he can avoid the pain that follows.

  • Melody Warbington

    I wonder how many of your homosexual friends deem the lives of unborn babies less valuable, i.e., babies who are killed in the womb. Because if they’re voting Democratic, they’re voting for the platform of death.

  • avgjo

    But is that really partisan, or just an honest analysis?

  • greyeagle

    Afraid Boehner will cave and kiss Obama’s butt. I want a strong leader in the House, but it sure is not Boehner.

  • diamondreo

    “preserve our brand” Really? We already have a brand that isn’t worth preserving. It’s called ‘Republicans’. It’s high time column’s like this need to at least delineate two terms: Conservatives and Republicans. Then put in at least a passing commentary as to why and what each one is, isn’t, can, can’t, wants, and doesn’t want to do.

    Since ‘Obama’s Way’ and the ‘Republican Cave’ are two names for what will happen, the bully-media will use the latter name to describe the cause of any resultant, near-by, and adjacent calamity.

    All Conservative Republicans can do is run for the hills and separate themselves from the ‘Republicans’ as far as possible. They need to be seen as ‘off the field’ for this one and come back taking the lead in the debt-ceiling fight. …oh what a pain this is…we’re screwed…

  • diamondreo

    Can I pile on a-little more? You write:

    “There is an emerging consensus from some CONSERVATIVES (my emphasis) inside and outside of Congress that we have no leverage on the tax fight and are thus compelled to give in on the higher tax rates. To that end, they advocate voting present on an extension of the tax rates sans the highest two rates, so that the extension will go through for the middle class without having to own the tax increase on the higher brackets.”

    WHY DO YOU NEED TO USE THE TERM CONSERVATIVES, WHY NOT REPUBLICANS (at least)?