« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

A Retreat Emanating from the GOP Retreat?

Republicans came into their annual retreat at Williamsburg, Virginia looking for a starting point in the upcoming debt and budget battles.  It appears that they have emerged from the retreat with a full blown plan.

They will pass a bill this week that will suspend the debt ceiling law until May 18.  The debt limit increase will be tied to a requirement that the Senate passes a budget – with the threat of cutting off pay for senators in the event they fail to come through with one by April 15.  Note that there is no requirement that the Senate pass a budget that balances in 10 years, just that they pass any budget.

The underlying rationale behind this strategy is to defer the debt ceiling fight until after the FY 2013 CR is dealt with and the FY 2014 budgets are formulated.  The idea is that the House would unite behind a pro-active budget/debt plan in March from which they would harness as their demand for any long-term debt ceiling increase in mid-April.

What sort of budget plan would Republicans formulate in March?  According to a joint letter by five current and former chairmen of the Republican Study Committee, who are all supporting this plan, “the House will work to put the country on the path to a balanced budget in 10 years.  House leadership also agreed to stand by the $974 billion discretionary number that is part of the sequestration process.”

If Republicans would truly use this short-term extension as an opportunity to formulate a balanced budget from which to use as any future demand for raising the debt ceiling, it’s a great deal.  But please forgive me for feeling a bit like Moses during his interaction with Pharaoh during the plagues.  After incurring the wrath of God for obdurately reneging on his promise to let the Jews out of Egypt, Pharaoh finally confessed his sins during the seventh plague and promised to let them go.  Moses agreed to suspend the hail, but he was not fooled after 7 times.  “But as for thee and thy servants, I know that ye will not yet fear the LORD God [Exodus 9, 30].”

By my count, there have been at least seven budget/debt battles over the past two years in which Republicans have either deferred, punted, or caved.  While they offer excuses for shirking from the battle at hand, they always emphatically promise to fight the next one.  Look, maybe Boehner told the conservatives in the House something that gave them the impression he had a complete epiphany.  Maybe they really will formulate a budget that will balance in 10 years.  But even if they do, does anyone really believe they will stand behind it as a demand for a long-term debt limit increase as the clock winds down to midnight May 18?

Conservatives need to ask the following question: why is it that leadership shirks from a fight every time they get close to the supposed deadline?  They are obviously too scared to fight.  So why will things change on May 18?  Formulating a balanced budget is one thing; standing behind it – or even one or two consequential parts of it – when you have the leverage to do so is another thing.

We can talk from now until tomorrow about unilaterally passing a good budget in the House, but if we are not going to use one of the points of leverage (debt ceiling/CR) to enforce it, the promise is worthless.  Even if conservatives sign onto this deal, it’s about time they force leadership to grow out of their “fear of the dark” with brinkmanship.  They must pass the Full Faith and Credit Act, which will force the Treasury to prioritize debt payments in the event that an agreement is not reached, as part of the bill this week.

Many of the key figures in the pseudo-conservative intelligentsia are trying to convince conservatives in the House that there is no point in fighting for the next 4 years – as if we could even wait that long.  They contend that it’s impossible to “govern from the House.”  These supercilious wizards of smart would be wise to relearn the lessons of the Gingrich-era House.  Despite their stubborn believe that we were eviscerated during the periods of brinkmanship in ’95-‘96, House conservatives successfully used their unswerving stance to force through welfare reform, a balanced budget, and tax cuts.  Yes, they did control the Senate, but the rudderless leadership there had nothing to do with that success.  It all came from the House.  Republicans actually gained seats in the Senate in ’96.  And no, Bob Dole did not lose the election because of the government shutdown.

Hence, Republicans actually achieved more when they were in control of the House than when they had the presidency.

Even the intransigent rubes like us intuitively understand that we will never get a full balance budget out of this.  We’re not going to get free-market Medicare reform, welfare reform, Medicaid block grants, and private Social Security accounts in one deal.  All we ask is that we begin negotiating from a balanced budget, and show the Democrats that we mean business – that we are willing to engage in brinkmanship to force some transformational change.  We must get one or two significant reforms or reductions in the size of government as part of the final deal.  Yet, we will only win those reforms if we are willing to engage in brinkmanship at some point.

Maybe this plan is the beginning of such an effort, but conservatives ought to receive a blood-oath from Boehner before going along with it.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project

COMMENTS

  • taxed2death

    Getting a Balanced Budget (BB) is like getting your hands on vapor-ware. Won’t happen. The Ds don’t want a BB because that means that they may get called out by their gimmee voters. Besides, have the Ds ever actually stuck to a budget? Is there any proof that promises made to the Rs by the Ds ever came true? No matter what happens to the budget or the economy, the Elite Rs get to keep their money and benefits while we get out pockets cleaned out.

    Any attempt to contact our elected official is a waste of time since emails are filtered and faxes are round-filed and voice mail is full and if, by chance, you get a live person on the phone, they are polite but the conversation goes nowhere. Weepy and his crew don’t listen to us. They are on a mission to work-the-system for their own pocket stuffing. Ok, most politicians do that.

    I know, we Conservatives are fighting against the other 3 legs of a 4-legged stool. Obumer and the Senate and the LSM. Not much one leg can do.

    Newt wrote an excellent article last week that points out the the House CAN do something but they need a spine and ballz to step up. But, of course, the Elite Rs hate Newt and thus will ignore him.

    Our one last chance is the 2014 elections.

    What ever happened to that guy that shouted out “You Lie” during an Obumer speech? Was he ever right ! ! !

  • benson1

    Hope springs eternal in the human breast.

  • gnomechumpsky

    And by golly they mean it this time!

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Great points. The fact is the Obama and Reid have used eachother as shields in ways that was not possible in the 1995 timeframe. The Republicans are finally learning that the real problem is the Senate and they need to direct their focus on getting the Senate to act and come to a reasonable budget.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Which is why it is pointless to use debt limit as big leverage, it backfires … use it as small leverage – as they are doing here- and use the CR as the big leverage point.

    Republicans dont care if the govt shuts down, but a default of the US would be a big no-no. This is why we need “Full Faith and Credit” Act passed pronto as part of this extension.

    So dont screw around with that, but also DONT pass a budget that spends more than whats in the Ryan budget. Shutdown? that will happen if the Democrats (a) dont have a budget or (b) dont get fiscally responsible. After so many sallies and back and forth, I’ve concluded something very simple:

    The ONLY real leverage point for Republicans to stop Democrats from spending is … TO STOP SPENDING. Stop passing big spending bills in the House. Stop passing massive deficits in the House. Stop passing bills that arent on a path to balanced budget and dont get spending under 20% of GDP in the next 4 years. Just STOP THE SPENDING.

  • PowerToThePeople

    And we are always happy to have you as we all need comic relief. But as freedoms truth stated, not sure what site you thought you were on, but this site never crammed any candidate down anyone’s throat, much less Romney. But once he won the primary contest, this site got behind him. And if I remember you correctly, you were a Ron Paul acolyte who never had anything worth while to say.

  • carolina

    The pay will be held in escrow, not “stopped”. This is how they will avoid the trap you mention. Read the full text of the Bill (businessinsider has a link, among other sites)

  • coninkalifornia

    even if it were accurate – why not let the democrats go to court to enforce their right to get paid while not passing a budget? that’s basically the ideal scenario

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    “thank you for mentioning “a pro-active budget/debt plan.” one thing
    that’s clearly not working is the refusal of house leadership to propose
    detailed entitlement reform proposals”

    False. The House proposed the Ryan roadmap. The House has passed 2 budgets in years the Senate passed none. The House put forth cup,cap and balance. They have specifics galore on a number of proposals to cut, cap and control spending.

    What they dont have is a Senate that will consider them. Their specifics that collect dust on Harry Reid’s doorstep are as meaningful as repealing Obamacare for the 33rd time in the House.

    “Relying on Obama to advance conservative policies seems like a bad idea.”

    SO THEN WHY ARE YOU INSISTING ON THE HOUSE GOP DOING JUST THAT?!? The only way something becomes law is when Obama signs it. When you say .. “House leadership needs to go to Obama” … you are doing just that – relying on Obama to advance conservative policies… a pipe dream.

    Rep King is right: The House makes a conservative proposal and it just becomes a pinata for the Democrats, how does that help?

    What helps more is if we understand that Republicans do NOT have the power to effect conservative change, but instead only the power to say NO.

    That means no grand bargain but simply this: Cut the spending by not passing any big spending bills. Period.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    “Is there a reason for the House to wait for the Senate to act?”

    YES.

    Our failures during the various high-stakes negotiations have been directly related to the Obama / Reid act of DOING NOTHING while blaming Republicans for everything. Obama is set to do nothing on the budget at all while blaming the Republicans to calamity if they dont write a blank check. Obama uses Senate inaction as a shield. Rule #1 in negotiations is that the other goes first, and Reid has used that to the max. This flips it around… let the Democrats goes first, and then THEIR budget proposals can be pummelled and criticized and the House can come in with their conservative spending alternatives to forge the compromise.

    Remember, the budget is to win a short term debt ceiling – we are still requiring a serious move towards fiscal responsibility to have a long term debt ceiling extension.

  • coninkalifornia

    I think your misunderstanding what ‘relying on Obama’ means. I mean, if our house leaders want entitlement reform they have to advocate for it, in detail, beyond simply saying, “we need entitlement reform.” Instead, they asked Obama to come up with ideas for cutting entitlements and act astonished when it doesn’t suffice.

    You clearly don’t understand why our leaders are weak, and what they are afraid of – they’re afraid of getting attacked for cutting entitlements by Democrats. My point: if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

    Are you waiting for the time when Democrats aren’t going to blast conservatives for “throwing grandma off the cliff?” Don’t hold your breath.

    “That means no grand bargain by simply this: Cut the spending by not passing any big spending bills. Period.”

    Uh, how does not passing any spending bills reform entitlements – the cause of spending increases now and in the future? Punting on entitlements, as you suggest, is abject surrender on the debt and deficit.

  • thirdeblue3639

    What if the Senate and the President respond that the brinkmanship is bad for America and refuse to ratify a short-term extension on the debt?

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    That’s right–because we sure didn’t have a Republican in the White House at that time.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    I personally backed Newt Gingrich (because Jim DeMint wasn’t running).

  • philipinuhoff

    And then when you were down to one leg you decided have a shin kicking contest with your own party.. Pure genius.

  • philipinuhoff

    What is the point? The debt reached critical mass along time ago. There is not enough money in existence to pay it off.

    Besides, paying it off means giving all of the money and resources in the world to China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, London and the FED.

    Here is some math for you to work out in your planning to save us from ourselves:

    If you borrowed USD $1, at the time of Christ at six percent interest,
    compound interest, you would now owe ten to the fiftieth power USD- that
    is fifty zeros after the 1.

    That is why we are hitting the debt “ceiling” (what a joke) faster and faster. The debt ceiling will be removed as the debt is now growing exponentially.

    But hey, who cares about all that math stuff? We’re safe from the terrorists, right?

  • Finrod

    The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

    And don’t quote math to me, I was a math major in college.

  • Finrod

    Except that it’s also unconstitutional for both houses of Congress to not pass a budget. I can easily see a federal court looking at this and saying “this unconstitutional thing is only triggered when this other unconstitutional thing happens– we’re not going to touch this with a 20-foot pole”.

  • lawstudent

    The current pickle is simple. We stupidly folded on the fiscal cliff, and allowed obama to raise taxes on the wealthy while keeping his promise to not raise them for the middle class. Geniuses like Lindsay Graham and his followers here told us not to worry, as our real leverage is the debt ceiling. Oops…. then it turns out we are afraid to default…. and have no leverage….

    Yet again the establishment republicans have managed to protect their buddies on wall street while throwing true conservatives under the bus. Until we get conservative leadership, we have no hope of winning. Can’t win when your leader is actually working for the other team, and actively trying to preserve the status quo of a bloated government fiddling to the tune of its Goldman Sachs donors.

  • checkmate2012

    This comment is so true: “Besides, paying it off means giving all of the money and resources in the world to China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, London and the FED.” I’m seeing forced labor in our future to repay our debt and it will be multi-cultural…fair share ya know.

  • albertmaslar

    Republicans control the House but are cowards under the fierce rudderless leadership of leaders like Speaker John Boehner who have been incumbents for much too long. Their plan is no plan. Here is the key to “Fix It All,” but the powers that be are too proud to read the 5-page 84-point plan that, right or wrong, offers a possible solution for nearly every major problem facing the nation. The plan is available from albertmaslar2@gmail.com or albertmaslar2@hotmail.com

    BRIEF SUMMARY-5-page 84-Point Plan “TO FIX IT ALL”
    To involve all in government, my 5-page 84-point plan INCLUDES a 3% NST National Sales Tax with NO-EXEMPTION for any purchase whether by individual, corporation, partnership, church, school, charity, political contributions, import, export, money transfer in and out of the country, and Government spending. Government tax paid to itself cannot be available for general budget but reserved for debt reduction only.

    The 3% NST would be allocated as follows: 1% for Budget; 1% to reduce National Debt; 1% for Universal Medicare (UMC) for all US residents having a valid Social Security Number, NOT EIN, Employee Identification Number that is meant for business only but used by illegal immigrants to get picture ID to gain welfare and benefits.

    Included in automatic UMC coverage would be residents having valid residence status, students, workers etc. A corollary is a graduated 20% maximum income tax (Tax Table available upon request) that would make all income equal with no exceptions. The net result is a single graduated tax table with limited exemptions and exceptions.

    Stock market transactions would be subject to a 1% transaction tax. That might put the brakes on HFT High Frequency Trading that adds to problems connected with artificial volatility that gobbles up investor profits in the blink of an eye while causing havoc in the market.

    Based on a study published in the HILL, the NST would result in sufficient revenue to handle the debt, deficit, and National HealthCare that would operate under existing Medicare rules and regulations, thereby containing bureaus, overhead, and regulations.

    Using 2008 as an example: there were $755 Trillion of total transactions that year. If the exempted $312 Trillion in stock transactions is deducted, with no exemptions or exceptions for NST that leaves $4.43 Trillion in annual revenues for each phase: 1% each or $4.43 Trillion for Budget, $4.43 Trillion for Deficit; and $4.43 Trillion for Universal Medicare. This means there is a real chance for eliminating the national debt within the next 5-10 years, as $4.43 Trillion approximates current budgets.

    The beauty of the NST is that everyone, legal or not, illegal income or not, welfare income or not, would pay 3% of their spending or benefit for support of the country including automatic Universal Medicare for ALL LEGAL residents of the USA. The NST could replace the need to rely entirely on income tax that under this plan would be reduced to a single tax-table for all entities, personal, business, and Not-For Profit entities with a maximum GRADUATED rate of 20% summarized as follows:

    48. Effective tax rate on Taxable Income of $100,000 2.74%
    Effective tax rate on Taxable Income of $1 Million 7.47%
    Effective tax rate on Taxable Income of $1 Billion 19.88%

    Revenue from the new income tax would make up any budget shortfall not paid by the 1% NST with any excess dedicated to further reduction of the National Debt.

    Contact albertmaslar2@gmail.com for complete 5-page 84-point plan.

    Albert Maslar CPA (Retired)
    128 Huron Ave.
    Absecon,
    NJ 08201-2022
    609-677-0069

  • Ari

    Does anyone truly believe, we will even “KNOW” what committments Obama has made by May 18? The executive gun matter, if not rejected by the Senate, will add billions in enforcement costs. Which brings us to the SENATE. What prevents them from failing to stop executive FIAT spending?

  • adair

    Tsk tsk, back to the Goldwater days. Simple answers to complex problems. Never mind that they’re workable and correct.
    Remember, Boehner has already been told that there’s no spending problem. And he seems delighted to believe it. Blood oath. Oh, sure.