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Anticipating the upcoming Great California High-Speed Rail Disaster of 2013+.

“+” because this this is going to crash and burn for years. 

Let me summarize this LA Times article discussing the looming …singularity… of fiscal destruction.

  • California wants a high-speed rail system which will apparently solve all of their problems (“Then why don’t they have one, already?” “Because shut up, that’s why”).
  • This is scheduled to cost 68 Billion dollars. $68,000,000,000.
  • It will cost more.
  • Meanwhile, the state is deep in debt – and it’s an open question whether Jerry Brown and his Merry Band of Democrats have actually managed to stabilize revenues.
  • For example, I am waiting (with more than a little morbid curiosity) to see what California’s actual 1Q 2012 tax revenues are like. I suspect that they’re going to be… memorable.
  • But let’s get back to the high-speed rail. It’s not built yet.
  • That’s fine; construction isn’t supposed to start for another six months…
  • Oh, wait, not all of the land for the railway has been purchased, yet.
  • Oh, wait, none of the land for the railway has been purchased, yet.
  • Which is why the start of construction has already been delayed.

This is the part from the LA Times that I want to quote:

The land purchases are waiting on the hiring of a team of specialized contractors, but they cannot start their work until the rail agency gets approval from another branch of the state bureaucracy. About 400 parcels are needed for the first construction segment, a 29-mile stretch from Madera to Fresno.

The formal offers will start an eminent domain action, the legal process for seizing land from private owners. The owners have 30 days to consider the offer, and then the state must go through a series of steps that can add 100 more days of appeals and hearings, assuming the state can get on the court calendar, according to Robert Wilkinson, an eminent domain litigator in Fresno. If the state fails to convince a judge that a quick takeover of property is justified, formal trials could stretch on for 18 months, he added.

“I would think a lot of these are going to end up in litigation,” he said. “It is a tight schedule, no question about it.”

But wait, there’s more!

  • Agricultural land – which would generally be a good choice for eminent domain, on the principle that nobody’s living there (thus making the whole thing look better for the cameras) – has risen in value quicker than the state of California has expected.
  • But the state of California can’t just arbitrarily raise their eminent domain offer in response. There are rules. Dear God in Heaven, but there are rules.
  • And, of course, there are lawsuits pending, permissions required on the both the state and federal level, and a general hurry-up-hurry-up-hurry-up stance being taken by the Obama administration on getting this program on the ground and choo-chooing with all due speed. Because Barack Obama doesn’t live in California, and he doesn’t really care what their problems are.

In short: when this thing blows up in the California legislature’s and governor’s faces, feel the warmth of knowing that you were told, six months or so before anybody else, that the entire thing was going to collapse in a hot mess of red tape and unpaid bills. Unless you live in California: then you have my sympathies. I have zero desire to pay for this disaster, but sympathy is still free. Well, at least until the California legislature manages to slap a tax on that.

(H/T: Hot Air Headlines)

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: It may seem cruel to openly display the schadenfreude on this one; but then, the California electorate presumably knew what it was up to when they elected these bozos. Also, to quote the classics: “Fragile things, dropped from a great height, make a nice sound.”

COMMENTS

  • checkmate2012

    Are you implying CA put the caboose before the engine on their train to nowhere?? No feasibility studies to assist in sound decision making? And Jerry Brown et al aren’t smarter than you’re average bear? Thank goodness the Left is a tolerant bunch and is willing to pay a “fair share” price on private property holders. Surely Feinstein will pay a bonus if they turn in their guns too!
    .
    I’m going to make a wild guess that the team of specialized contractors (“The land purchases are waiting on the hiring of a team of specialized contractors”) are awaiting appointment by O or Trumka, so it takes time to figure out whom to pay back for their GOTV efforts.

  • exitsfunnel

    Speaking as someone who invests in real estate in Arizona, this looks pretty good to me. I have a feeling that the Jerry Brown years are going to be very good to me.

  • GreyCloak

    The route seems similar to that for which BNSF already has “trackage rights” (http://www.bnsf.com/customers/pdf/maps/div_ca.pdf). Basically, the old Santa Fe/California Southern inland rails from San Diego/LA to San Francisco. “Why “eminent domain” properties probably already bought by California politicians, when CA can lease the routes from Warren Buffett?

  • ss396

    And that, Ms. Rachael Maddow, is why we do not – nay, cannot – build ‘big’ anymore.

  • jaykali

    But don’t massive spending projects “prime the pump”!?!?!?

  • grumpyKoz

    Who owns the land now that the train is going to need?
    What politician, actor or general Rich Person will become more rich by this deal?

  • funwithknives

    If few [if anyone] are/is not asking the question, then why is it ‘being answered’ ?
    AMTRAK only makes money on Three, count ‘em, Three of it’s many routes.
    So where are CAL-R/ROADS subsidies for tickets and maintenence gonna’ come from?
    If you guessed : ‘The Remaining 49′, you just might be onto something here…..
    I like Choo-Choos as much as the next guy, but,…come on…..

  • Kyle-MI

    I wish we could have a federal law to prevent people who voted for Jerry Brown from moving out of CA. Anyone who voted for a CA Dem should be forced to live with their stupidity.

  • Tbone

    The reality is that few people will even use it. Given the mountains in the way between LA and Bakersfield the train trip from LA to SF will take close to 5 hours. The official estimate is 2 hours and 38 minutes at an average speed of 164 mph. LOL.

    I owned a company that sold over $1 million a year in European high speed rail tickets and we always were competing against air travel times. Short answer, as soon as the rail time exceeded 3 hours, flying was faster and cheaper.

    Now, can the train make the trip from LA to SF in 2 hours 38 minutes? You tell me. By example, the fastest TGV trip between Paris and Lyon is 1 hour 55 minutes and the distance is 245 miles. Roughly 125 mph average. It is flat and it is straight. The distance between LA and SF? 347 miles as the plane flies, 425 miles according to 2 hrs, 38 minute x 164 mph.

    So, who are they trying to fool?

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Yet another part of Amerika that the people lease back from Warren Buffet?

  • http://www.twitter.com/AWG9_yoyo yoyo

    Jack, that commute is akin to that dreaded El Centro to Calexico debacle.

  • http://www.twitter.com/AWG9_yoyo yoyo

    Can you imagine what a 6.8+ earthquake would be like at ~220 mph? (please do not bring up “they have one in Japan…” arguement. Different fault type, different movement, different focus.)

    And have you seen the map of the proposed route? The train looks like it is going for a “Sunday Drive” it has so many turns.

    Now that I say that, I doubt it would ever get to 220 mph.

  • auh20catokeyahburkeburke

    better watch out or the suede denim secret police will come for your uncool niece. I hear those Zen fascists out Californy way aren’t messing around.

  • http://twostepstotheright.blogspot.com/ D.T. Dickinson

    As a Bakersfield resident, I hear about this…monstrosity…almost on a daily basis.

    One day I hope to convince my wife to leave this state.

  • Rich Fader

    Remember, some of us actually vote against these idiots.

    The project that really makes me shake my head at the firestorm of stupid is the Vegas train. I mean, an hour and a half for a 180 mile run is great as far as it goes, but most of Southern California is going to have to drive (at minimum) an hour up into the high desert for it. And most of Southern California isn’t at the minimum end of that.

  • gyakuzuki

    This is the ultimate “train to nowhere”. I can fly Southwest from SF to LAX (or Burbank) for half or less the (expected) price of the same ticket on Obamarail, in a 10th of the time. Only fools will use Obamarail.

    Yes, we need to call this OBAMARAIL.

    Who are the customers for this ridiculous idea? Where is the market research showing people EVEN WANT this thing? Where is the research showing price elasticity of demand at the expected price of tickets?

    California is neck-deep in fiscal issues without even attempting to deal with the problems of underfunded pensions.

    HAVE WE LOST OUR MINDS?

  • Jack_Savage

    Arrgh – I tremble when I think of that.

  • Jack_Savage

    Maybe we could get something through the House for starters.

  • Jack_Savage

    Duly noted. I pray for you guys.