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Detroit and How Democracies Die

Detroit Is Amerika’s Ghost of Christmas Future.

More Debt to GDP Than Any Time Other Than WWII

More Debt to GDP Than Any Time Other Than WWII

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.

Alexis de Tocqueville

It’s easy to kick Detroit. The place just about roles over and begs for it. Now we learn that the City Henry Ford built is now eligible to be put under emergency management by Governor Rick Snyder. Michigan State Treasurer described the situation succinctly below.

“We believe there’s a financial emergency in the city and that there’s no plan in place to correct the situation … I do believe strongly Detroit is fixable,” he said.

I read this, nod in sad agreement and then think to myself that Detroit is just the symptom. Detroit is just the canary that died in the burning coal mine of American finance. Our country is going bankrupt and despite our heartfelt desire that this not happen, most of us are helping it occur. We are caught in what’s called a discursive dilemma. Gonzalo Lira gives us an explanation of how we made it to sequestration below.

The majority of the group believes taxes should be cut—and at the same time, the majority of the group thinks the government should deliver more services to the people. All of the members of the group individually do not want a deficit, but as a group their incoherence leads to a deficit. This is the democratic fiscal incoherence, a situation unique to democracies.

So this devolves down to every level of government. Nobody in the State of Rhode Island was willing to resolve the dilemma. They believed and still implicitly believe that the next level up the chain (Washington, DC) would bail them out.

They believe in Fairy Dust. They believe in The Bernanke Put. They stand athwart logic and high school mathematics. Rhode Island’s legislature believes they can magically legislate any rate of return on their pensions that the public unions feel entitled to. The fact that current conditions conspire against the possibility of such a generous return on investment can’t be allowed to stand in the way of what is Fair!

Detroit has even more impetus to believe in the magical bailout. They have no driver forcing them to resolve their fiscal incoherence. They just ask for more money to flush down the toilet and about every thirty years, a President and a Congress are stupid enough to fork over.

Mayor Bing doesn’t even really seem perturbed that the state treasurer just accussed him of total failure. In government, total failure justifies the need for additional investment! Bing explains below.

“My administration has been saying for the past four years that the city is under financial stress. If the governor decides to appoint an emergency financial manager, he or she, like my administration, is going to need resources — particularly in the form of cash and additional staff,” Bing said

Everyone needs more cronies that ought to fix just about everything! That has apparently been the American Way of dealing with this fiscal incoherence since 1975. Gonzalo Lira explains it below.

“My administration has been saying for the past four years that the city is under financial stress. If the governor decides to appoint an emergency financial manager, he or she, like my administration, is going to need resources — particularly in the form of cash and additional staff,” Bing said

So the debt goes up like an exponential horror-movie chart, here’s the carnage since 2008.

Natdebtsince2008

That’s the impetus behind all the calls for deficit reduction. The US Federal Reserve has 420% more debt than it had in 2008. It’s gone from a miserly $500Bn to a more robust $2.1T. The Federal Government’s publically held debt has increased by 200%. It ended the reign of Bush II at $5.3T and has manfully roided up to $10.6T under the loving care of Mein Obama.

Is it really any wonder that Mayor Bing sees this whole thing as an opportunity to expand his budget and his staff. We just buy our current risk of default with future indebtedness. Is it any wonder we wound up in sequestration? Is it any wonder people are dumb enough to want John Boehner to just wave a magic wand and make it go away? But eventually it can’t be made to go away. If we believe it will just disappear, than Detroit, MI is Amerika’s Ghost of Christmas Future.

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COMMENTS

  • mkeprof

    Two points of silver linings in this godawful mess of debt – Thank you for posting the numbers – they are a great help:
    1. The debt is growing at a progressively slower rate. Federal debt increased a massive 19% in 2009 over 2008. The increase in subsequent years are 13%, 10%, 11% and 7% respectively. Debt held by Public is also increasing at a slower rate every year since 2008. The growth in 2009 through 2013 is 28%, 21%, 4%, 14% and 9% respectively.

    I am not underplaying the severity of the situation – any growth rate in too much in the current state – especially when each of the rates above is higher than the GDP growth rate – so the debt to GDP ratio continues growing unabated.

    2. The debt held by the Fed Reserve – is it because of the bond purchase programs? If yes, then this is more like a mortgage – they have some security backing that debt so its not a complete loss. When they will sell those bonds, they will recover part of this money. Although it is likely that they will take losses since a higher interest rate at the time of selling would mean lower bond prices.

    As far as Detroit is concerned, I have lived in Michigan for a while and have seen Detroit up close (in its comparatively better days if you can believe it) – and I am not sure whether there is any solution. People will just keep leaving the city and it will die a natural death by attrition, I guess.

  • joshinca

    The majority of the group believes taxes should be cut—and at the same time, the majority of the group thinks the government should deliver more services to the people.

    This statement is not as oxymoronic as it first appears.

    State and local governments are facing budget crises because they over staff government operations, over pay government employees both directly and even worse through health and retirement benefit packages.

    Meaning that the taxes collected are going directly to a relatively small slice of the public that can fairly be considered parasites that return very limited value to taxpayers.

    So, the group quoted above is correct. Government simultaneously takes too much and delivers too little.

    You can see this everywhere in state and local governments. For example, only approx 30% of the money spent educating children in public schools directly impacts the classroom. The rest is various levels of administration from the district through the state. What value does that spending add to education? I’d say that it’s actually a large negative. Is the solution to failing schools then to give them more money? If not, does that mean that I should be happy with the results because that’s all I’m willing to pay for? The answer to both questions is obviously no.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Yes, in Bell, CA you could easily be in favor of less spending and better services. Corruption can do that for you.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    >>>> People will just keep leaving the city and it will die a natural death by attrition, I guess.
    So then what does Michigan do with the place?

  • joshinca

    The corruption in Bell was especially blatant but it’s my contention that public sector unions have made the government corrupt in every state that allows them.

    It’s especially bad in CA where there is no effective state republican party for statutory reasons and candidates for all local offices are funded by one union or another.

    Here, it’s a common practice for a government worker to ‘retire’ from one agency, get a pension of 90% of his salary, which is inflated in the last year to drive up the pension; and then go get another six figure job at another government agency.

  • adumas

    Sounds like it’s time to send in the “efficiency experts”…

    “What is it you say you do here?”

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    The sick thing is that we have Lean 6-Sigma Black Belts, Green Belts and probably even Pink Belts crawling all over the USG right now. They become just one more bum on the plush.

  • ww2nd95

    I agree to a certain extent, but I also think it depends on where you’re coming from. I don’t necessarily think teachers make to much money or that other local public employees make to much money, depending on where they live/cost of living. Federal employees are a completely different story and they do make to much money in comparison to state employees. I do think the govt can be bloated and cuts need to be made, but if you cut the salaries of public employees to much, then you get less qualified people, and services people count on undoubtedly go down in quality, then people will be upset about the quality of service their receiving from the Govt, but then again you get what you pay for.

    So the question is, how do you remedy this?

  • rightlane1111

    You know Repair Man…this whole government, Federal, State and Local needs to go to Al Anon. Keep feeding the addict and they will always have their hands out.

    Give them a purpose, a priority, wherein they “contribute” and are paid, as agreed by citizenry, and it’s a win/win.

  • ww2nd95

    I agree and I think cuts need to be made and that people should expect less services. My concern is cutting salaries of the jobs themselves. Like it or not, the higher the pay, the more qualified the people who apply are going to be. When you cut pay/benefits, you get bottom of the barrel, which leads to less quality. I think govt jobs should be relative to the requirements of the position, which could be a fairly high wage depending on the job. But you do not need redundancy, which I think is a problem with the govt in general.

    I guess what I’m saying is, cut the job numbers to where they need to be, but do not cut the salaries to much, otherwise I think the you cut off your nose to spite your face, when you put the minimum wage level worker into a more complicated position then he’s prepared to do.

  • joshinca

    I don’t necessarily think teachers make to much money or that other local public employees make to much money, depending on where they live/cost of living.

    There’s two different issues here.

    1) The bureaucrat nature of government and how much spending is wasted on worthless overhead.

    2) The pay of public sector employees.

    In my example of public schools, more than 2/3 of the money spent is on overhead, And I’ve never had anyone provide an answer for what value is derived from that overhead spending. Of the remaining 1/3 only a portion goes directly to the teachers salaries.

    Even so, in CA and every other large state that I’m aware of, the average cost of employing teachers is in the six figure range when health and pension benefits are included. Most people have no idea of the actual cost of employing public sector workers.

    The solution is too change the way that government works and the scope of what it attempts to do.

    Here’s a humorous essay regarding the value – cost of CA’s public schools; keep in mind that the dollars quoted in the article have almost doubled in the short time since it was written.

    http://mcclintock.house.gov/senate-archive/article_detail.asp?PID=292

  • joshinca

    Prison guards in CA make over 100,000 per year before their health care and retirement benefits are added to the mix.

    There’s room to cut that without being forced into hiring the dregs of society.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    It depends on what you are trying to buy. A rare skill-set also has to be effectively put to use or it atrophies regardless of salary. One way to skin this cat is to look really hard at tooth-to-tail ratios in most govt. departments.

  • ww2nd95

    Well that’s absurd if they’re making that much. No doubt the job is more difficult then we think and depending on the circumstances could even be deadly, but that’s not a 100k a year job IMO. But then again, Cali if absurdly expensive to live in, at least from what I hear.

    I understand what you’re saying, but I hear a lot of rhetoric about how state employees make to much money, even here in Tennessee, where I do not think they do if you look at there salaries, and a lot of jobs require a BS to even apply for, and I think it gets overblown and exaggerated.

    I agree, make the cuts as needed, but I also do not want the “dregs of society” making sure the water here is up to snuff.

  • BA Cyclone

    I think part of the larger issue is that the nature of much of the populace has been to “look to government” to solve every issue under the sun. “The government should take care of this” is so early in the average decision tree, and there are plenty of politicians who play to that tendency and tell the voter government can fix this if you just elect me.

    So we get vast bureaucracies at federal and state levels slicing the same or similar public issues into onion skins so that dozens of different agencies, bureaus, and departments can all work at solving problem X, and each one has an office full of people to work at justifying their existence to solve problem X. And if a future politician shows up and wants to cut one of these departments, even in the name of consolidation and efficiency, well then they just don’t care about problem X!

    I’m not proposing a solution — other than to say we need to market our ideas in a way that makes cutting government just as attractive to low-information-voters as it does the average Democrat snake oil salesperson.

    The average voter in the middle easily accepts “government can fix this” and we need to sell an alternate vision that this CAN be fixed with less government interference and meddling. If that was an easy target to hit, we’d have scores of candidates running on that vision.

  • DerKrieger

    I get my annual bonus next month and will be buying silver. Lots of it. I no longer want to ave cash. We’re all Argentinians now.

  • Sir Aaron

    I actually think Gonzalo Lira is partially wrong. I believe overspending is the norm not the exception. There is a large group of people in this country who operate their personal finances much the same way we operate the government. That is, they spend more than they make, continually roll over credit, and optimistically hope for a future where they make every increasing sums of money to keep up their spending. Only when the creditors shut them down, foreclose on the house, and drive them into bankruptcy does the spending stop.
    All governments are doomed because people, by their natures, are not responsible. This is why I say that liberal social beliefs always lead to liberal fiscal policies. Biblical, conservative values teach, reward, and punish according to a strong system of personal responsibility. As liberal policies and laws break down these values and their corresponding restraints on human behavior, the fiscal policy follows thereafter.

  • joshinca

    I thought that TN was one of the well managed states with a relatively small government.

    So observations of CA, NY, NJ, IL etc probably aren’t applicable there.

  • http://www.bohnetlaw.com rightappeal

    To resolve this problem, we need to overcome three huge obstacles: (1) many people who favor reducing spending in the abstract care more about retaining their own sliver of the government pie than they do about reducing the cost of everyone else’s; (2) people don’t realize how much government is spending on the programs they like. I expect that most Americans would be shocked if they learned the per-recipient cost of programs like public schools or Medicaire; and (3) many of the larger programs have gotten people dependent upon them and/or crowded out private alternatives so that people can no longer visualize how we could do without them.

  • Kevin Groenhagen

    Not an actual Tocqueville quote, but it’s hard to disagree with whomever said it.

  • funwithknives

    On the Front Page of The Detroit News dated yesterday [2/21] the article encompassing the entire page tells us that 47% of all taxpaying properties in the year 2011 did not pay-up.
    That in said year, $246.5 Million dollars went uncollected, half earmarked to Detroit and half to other local entities, including Wayne County and Detroit public schools.
    The page includes a really colorful map outlining where the non-payers seem to be concentrated. It’s kinda stunning , really…..
    Reading inside on pages 12- and 13-A gives me the spooky feeling that ‘this ain’t good’…..

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    They been conditioned to believe they don’t have to pay. I mean if the banksters didn’t have to pay….

    Another Gonzalo Lira piece comes to mind…
    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/second-leg-down-of-americas-death.html
    Some people are just saying it and going Galt.

  • funwithknives

    A few years ago when ‘our fair city’s’ dfficulties first started becoming super-apparent, a map appeared illustrating Detroit’s area
    [140 square miles] compared to other cities.
    You can put Boston, San Francisco and the Borough of Queens,all inside Detroit’s borders and have room left over.
    Let’s just call it ‘vast’ and go from there.
    As far as bulldozing entire areas, Pulte Homes is doing just that on a trial basis with private foundation’s funding.
    When it started up not too long ago, they did not even want to be indentified. But, by the time the area was demoed,spoil hauled-out , filled and graded , all was revealed and the sight of the expanse spoke for itself.
    Now,…. this M O just might spread and it cannot come too soon.

  • http://www.TerriersOfTheRight.blogspot.com Flagstaff

    Detroit’s problems started over 40 years ago. Hard to say if they were inevitable. By 1972, they were being ignored in favor of racial balance and political correctness.

    I have always believed they could have been corrected by cleaning up street crime and improving the school system. Who wants to live where it’s dangerous and their kids have bad schools? Nobody who can avoid it.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    That’s what Gulianni did in NYC. Cleaning up street crime has a cultural and economic value that no one has really quantified well. But the difference Rudy G. made in New York was obvious.