FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR
Obama’s scandal atmosphere and 2014 Democratic recruitment efforts.
I’m not sure that Stu Rothenberg is correct, here:
…it isn’t clear how much of an impact, if any, the controversies will have on the 2014 midterms. Even if (when) those controversies fade, however, there could be short-term consequences for both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the area of recruitment.
Largely because it doesn’t look like either organization was having stellar recruitment before everything in the world fell on the Democrats’ heads. We’re about eighteen months out from the election, which is close enough to start seeing trends (at this point in the 2010 cycle I was interviewing a bunch of insurgent candidates and seeing the first signs of the 2010 tsunami). A look at my usual House race handicappers is… instructive:
- Cook Political Report: 204/164 Safe Republican/Democrat; 29/30 Likely/Lean R/D; 1/6 Toss-Up R/D. No real movement, in other words.
- The Rothenberg Political Report: 209/176 Safe R/D; 25/25 In-Play D/R; of those, 2/3 Pure Toss-Up R/D. No real movement, in other words.
- Larry J Sabato’s Crystal Ball*: 195/168 Safe R/D; 24/26 Likely R/D; 12/13 Lean R/D; 7 Toss-up. 39/33 competitive R/D seats total. No real movement, in other words.
Things can change, obviously: but right now there’s no real evidence that the House is going to change at all in the next election. Which is in itself a data point for any ambitious Democrat out there thinking to jump into the 2014 election cycle… particularly since the ones that could win this cycle still have to deal with the fact that they’d be stuck with publicly supporting the current Democratic House leadership, which is probably the weakest (and certainly the most narrowly partisan) in my lifetime. Fortunately, the Democrats seem positively disinclined to remove Nancy Pelosi from a leadership position…
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*While I generally don’t look to Left/Democratic pundits and operatives for their policy positions, Larry Sabato knows how to handicap races.