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Cook Political Report shifts California-26 from Lean D to Toss-up.

This is fallout from last Tuesday’s California primary: freshman Democrat Julia Brownley got 46% of the vote to Republican Jeff Gorell‘s 44%. What should probably worry Brownley more is that the combined total percentage of Republican votes was over 50%.  It was generally not a great night for California’s Democratic candidates:

  • In CA-07 incumbent freshman Democrat Ami Bera is likewise dealing with an environment where Republicans got over 50% of the vote.
  • In CA-16 incumbent Jim Costa has the same problem… which he did not have in 2012.  This race may have more possibilities than we thought.
  • In CA-25 Democrats were locked out of the race to replace Buck McKeon.  That seat is now Safe Republican.
  • In CA-31 the same thing might still happen: one Republican won first place, and the second spot is up to the absentee ballots. If this happens it will mark the second cycle in a row that the jungle primary system has ensured a Republican representative in what is considered to be a Democratic-leaning seat.
  • In CA-52 freshman Democratic incumbent Scott Peters is staring early retirement in the face: he got only 42% of the vote against a field of Republican candidates.
  • And, in general: there is no indication that any sitting incumbent Republicans from California are in trouble in the House this year.

All in all, the GOP is looking more and more like they will not lose any net seats in California this year (I consider CA-31 balanced by CA-52) and may actually pick up a couple.  And the funny part? The Democrats still haven’t seemed to work out how to work with the new top-two primary system. So if you believe that there were shenanigans involved in the post-Census redistricting… then I guess that those shenanigans failed, because the system now seems to be predisposed to punish political parties that can’t maintain ballot discipline.

I know, I know: ain’t it a shame?

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Via comments here it’s now looking like the next California controller might have to be a Republican:

Republican David Evans has edged into second place in the seesaw battle for state controller, pushing Democratic Assemblyman John Pérez into third and, at least for now, out of the Nov. 4 general election.

But a report by the secretary of state’s office Friday morning showed that 991,699 ballots remain to be counted across California, making the most recent numbers anything but final.

Numbers released Thursday night show Republican Ashley Swearengin, the mayor of Fresno, leading the race to replace termed-out Democrat John Chiang with 761,108 votes, or 24.6 percent of the ballots cast.

This jungle primary thing just doesn’t stop being funny.

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