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A tight race in Maine-02? …Very possibly.

Interesting, although why the article went with the registered voter results when the likely voter results were 35/34 (more on that below) is unclear:

A poll commissioned by Republican candidate Bruce Poliquin reveals a tight race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

The survey, conducted by the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies*, showed Poliquin trailing Democrat Emily Cain by four points, 37-33.

…and this is probably the most interesting part:

Cain’s campaign on Tuesday said the POS poll results were similar to others they’d seen, including the Portland Press Herald/University of New Hampshire survey in June, which also showed Cain with a lead that fell within the margin of error.

There was a little bit of confusion going on between the above article and the NRCC’s field memo on the race; the Bangor Daily News State & Capitol blog article linked to above suggested that the likely voter results were 37/33 Cain/Poliquin, while the NRCC reported the likely voter breakdown as 35/34 C/P.  When I asked about it, a Republican staffer familiar with the poll confirmed to me that the 37/33 numbers represented registered voters, while the 35/34 represented likely ones.  This is probably why the Cain campaign confirmed the 37/33 numbers; they’re pretty bad news for the Democrat, but 35/34 is just simply awful for a race that was not really on anybody’s radar.  If I was faced with picking which side of a problematic poll like this one to comment on, I’d have picked the registered voter results, too.

And then there’s the high percentage of people who have yet to make up their mind.  ME-02 has, after all, been held by a Democrat for the last twenty years or so.  It can be, and has been, considered reasonably favorable territory for Democrats; but if a quarter of Maine’s Second District really hasn’t made up its mind, then maybe this race should be upgraded from one that favors Democrats to one that’s seriously in play.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Bruce Poliquin for Maine-02.

PPS: Note this post from June. The Democrat didn’t exactly take off, did she?

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