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Who Will Fill the 2012 VP Spot? A Guide to the GOP Race for Second

By Myra Adams

According to the latest Gallup poll conducted among Republicans and Republican leaning voters, former Governor Mitt Romney is leading former Governor Sarah Palin by only two points, 17% to 15%.

Now, since Sarah Palin has yet to announce a Presidential Exploratory Committee and her official candidacy is still up in the air, for the purposes of analyzing the potential 2012 vice-presidential candidates I will use “front runner” Mitt Romney and his possible short list of vice-presidential running mates.

(Notice the term “front runner’ is used very loosely.)

However, all the potential VP candidates discussed here could wind up on the short list of whoever is the eventual Republican presidential nominee.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney in a Real Clear Politics match-up against President Obama loses 48.6% to 42.1% with a 6.5% margin of victory for Obama.

This is still far and away the best showing any Republican can currently muster against Obama. Thus Romney’s running mate might have an opportunity to help make the race more competitive.

(As for the effect a VP choice can have on a presidential ticket, be sure to do some research on McCain/Palin 2008.)

So who could best complement Romney on the ticket? And more important, who could help Romney unite what will undoubtedly be a fractured party?

Before all the names and explanations are offered, let’s first review a little vice-presidential selection history to gain some political perspective.

Vice-presidential running mates are chosen for vastly different reasons, and usually have nothing to do with whether or not that person is actually qualified to take over as president in the event of… well, you know, the awful awful.

There is the “geographical balance” reason, like when Massachusetts Senator John Kennedy selected Texas Senator Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

There is the ”runner-up who can help me win” reason successfully employed when Reagan picked George H. W. Bush in 1980.

There is the “I need a young handsome face on the ticket” reason, utilized in 1992 when incumbent Vice-President George H.W. Bush selected Indiana Senator Dan Quayle to be his number two.

Also from 1992 was the “Governor nominee who thinks he needs a Senator with Washington experience” reason — put into play when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton selected Tennessee Senator Al Gore.

In 1996 Republican presidential candidate, Senator Bob Dole chose former Congressman Jack Kemp for the “I need a Reagan conservative to balance the ticket” reason.

And who can forget “the ticket needs some gravitas” reason, when Governor George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney in 2000. (Or rather this one should really be called, “the VP Selection Committee leader chose himself reason.)

From 2008 there was “my ticket is in desperate need of someone with some foreign policy experience” reason when Senator Obama picked Senator Biden.

And then on the Republican side the historic “I need a young conservative female because I am an old, high-risk, high-reward kind of guy” reason which went operational with gusto when Senator McCain tapped then unknown Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Now that we are up to speed from the historical perspective, let’s examine who Romney might select as his running mate. These names are in NO particular order and to restate, any GOP nominee may wind up choosing from this list.

Romney – Bush

Former two-term Florida Governor Jeb Bush most certainly would have been the prime, top of the ticket contender in 2008 had his last name been “Plant” instead of Bush. And for that same reason again, Jeb has taken himself out of the presidential field in 2012. But that does not preclude Jeb from making himself available for the #2 spot on the ticket, to which he would bring numerous assets that are chronicled in detail here.

Briefly, Jeb could help bring Florida back to the red column. The Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida would have extra spark and bounce if a hometown resident was selected as the VP candidate. Jeb is Catholic, his wife is Hispanic, he speaks Spanish, has considerable policy knowledge and experience — and is a respected GOP party heavyweight.

Jeb in the number #2 slot might make Romney in the #1 spot more palatable to disillusioned conservatives who might be still be sulking.

Then there is the added bonus that Jeb would be the most visible front runner for 2016 if Romney loses to Obama. It has been widely reported that 2016 may be Jeb’s time.

Romney – Kyl

Romney, like Obama in 2008, might choose a running mate who has extensive knowledge in foreign affairs and decades of Senate experience.

Enter Arizona Senator Jon Kyle, the #3 ranking Republican in the Senate who is retiring in 2012 after three terms. Kyl is a well respected conservative and told this writer last year that he would be interested in the VP slot.

Romney- Petraeus

Romney’s selection of David Petraeus could possibly be a “game changer.”

Just imagine this scenario: General Petraeus is soon retiring from the Army to set up camp as Director of the CIA, serving under President Obama.

So sometime in the middle of 2012, Director Petraeus has some “major policy disagreements” with the president and resigns his CIA post. Then he is suddenly available and Romney selects him as his surprise choice for VP.

Romney could definitely use the boost in the foreign policy area, especially when our nation might still be engaged in three unpopular wars.

Petraeus would be real asset to Romney and perhaps inject some positive energy into the ticket.

Romney- Rubio

Newly elected in November 2010, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, is a young conservative Senator of Hispanic descent, and considered a rising star in the GOP. He is often mentioned as a possible VP candidate but has stated he will not be on the ticket in 2012.

However, in the unlikely event he does receive and takes “the call,” he too, like Jeb Bush could help land Florida in the red state column and unify the party. Rubio, from what I can gather really does plan to wait out 2012 and ascend to higher office on this own time table.

Romney – Palin

If Sarah Palin is a formidable force in 2012 winning several primaries, then selecting Palin may be a wise choice for Romney and a chance to unite the party. Certainly her 2008 campaign experience would be a plus for the ticket. Then “Can I call you Joe?” from the 2008 VP debate would be a redux.

Now, for all you political junkies out there reading this piece, file it away until August of 2012. Then, as my wise old political friend likes to say, if you are wrong no one remembers, and if you are right everyone thinks you’re a genius!

COMMENTS

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    I still hold out hope for Haley Barbour. I loved Dick Cheney as a Veep/Godfather. Haley has just a wee bit of that in him as well.

    • BA Cyclone

      He has D.C. insider connections ($$$), Governor creds, and has a charming-but-forceful way about him on the stump and behind the podium that would be valuable. AND he will be unemployed come January, anyway.

  • redtillimdead

    I think Jindal is the best bet. Romney is an old white guy from MA whose only experience in government is one term as MA Gov and his biggest weakness is health care. Jindal is a young, Indian-American from LA who will be in his second term as Governor after serving two terms in Congress and he is good on HCR, after serving as Director of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (at only 25!) and then he served as Deputy HHS Secretary under Tommy Thompson in the Bush administration. It would be a good balance and unite the party.

  • Gandalf

    selection for ANY Republican candidate would be Luis Fortu

    • robbyahm

      Ive been telling people that all over the blogosphere!

      He can also help translate republican principle and conservative value in the spanish market, let plenty of hispanics know that if they vote for Obama they are voting for socialism, and I know plenty of hispanics that are not a big fan of that ideology.

      • Gandalf

        delivering the newly minted State of Puerto Rico to Republicans for the next 20 years…

  • ntrepid

    Take your pick: Lynne or Liz. At the very least it would be a guaranteed butt whoopin

  • jdaman

    Herman Cain. If Cain can really get himself into the top couple of slots, say number two or three in the pickings, then he would be ideal.
    Think about it, Cain is a businessman and Romney is trying to portray himself as the “Jobs Candidate”, with Romney’s poor record with a money guzzling healthcare system that he created, who better than a businessman and who better to help boost Romeny’s image as the jobs guy than a successful businessman?
    Besides that, Cain could bring the conservative black voters over to Romeny’s side, and Cain is also popular with the Tea Party. Seems like a good pair to me, or at least, Cain could help erase some of Romney’s stigma with conservatives.

    • Remington_Steele

      he is a better counter balance than Bachmann. Dispite Bachmann’s good points, Herman has more executive experience and Romney (or XXX) with Cain would be an economic powerhouse which is what 2012 is all about.

      Runner ups for me would be Jindal and maybe Rubio (needs more experience in office). Haven’t looked into Fortu

  • silentcal2012

    I read this a lot and it makes no sense.

    She is not going to take a gazillion dollar pay cut to put on a muzzle for nine years, sit still and look pretty. The veep is a tame, do nothing position position based in Washington. She’d have more influence, make more money and be happier doing what she is doing now.

    On the other hand, no nominee is going to pick someone who has a hard time toeing the company line and absorbs too much spotlight. If the candidate is a bit dull or unknown, the last person they will pick is a lightning rod who will have a bigger press corps than the nominee.

  • drfredc

    I wouldn’t count out Huckabee as a VP possibility.

    He’s from the South (which seems to be important in GOP wins), is very articulate, has executive credentials, AND has a strong Social Conservative following.

    Plus, he’s NOT running for President, which means if he plays it smart, Huckabee won’t have offended anyone in the Party or the GOP Presidential candidate. Nor will he be the focus of Dem attacks for the next year…

    Plus, he’s got experience running a national campaign from 2008.

    Plus, as Fox commentator, during the GOP primaries, he’s going to be a constant conservative voice (perhaps of reason?) leading up to the GOP convention. From his Fox position, he can lead, heal, comment, and attack without being attacked back as much more than just another left wing hated Fox commentator. And, up to the GOP convention, HE CAN VOICE HIS OPINION without burning up campaign time, focus or dollars…

    In summary, by choosing to lay low during the primaries, Huckabee leaves being a VP candidate open — he could bring far more positives than negatives to the GOP come the final run to November.

    FYI, I’m not a big Huckabee fan, just your average doofus observer of trends and choices…

  • renny

    The argument that someone is going to be savaged because they are Rep. veep is spurious, because the TICKET is going to be savaged, ridiculed, dismembered, ravaged, and criminalized, and both pres. and veep candidates will need have the hides of a dozen elephants.

  • sully14

    As much as I like Michele Bachmann, I don’t think she has any chance to be the POTUS nominee. However, she would make an ideal female social conservative candidate for the second slot. Having her as Veep balances out any RINO led ticket. And she does not bring along the baggage that Sarah Palin has.

  • electionwatch

    I believe whoever is the Republican nominee will have a tough choice for the VP slot.
    What I believe about this analysis is that Jeb Bush will take his name out of consideration for the VP slot because there probably can’t be another Bush on the ticket until at least 2016.
    Kyl won’t be the VP nominee because he is now retiring after three terms and I don’t think he will consider being the VP choice after deciding to retire early in the election cycle.
    Petraeus would make the race interesting with his foreign policy experience outperforming current VP Biden’s foreign policy experience, and would provide some much needed depth in this field for the Republican nominee. But, I don’t think many Republicans would like to see him on the ticket because of his experience mostly under President Obama and the fact that he agreed to take the helm as Director of the CIA under President Obama. But, Petraeus did beat Obama in a Newsmax poll earlier this year. He would be a great VP nominee if Jon Huntsman is nominated. Huntsman is another guy who worked under President Obama recently as US Ambassador to China after resigning as Governor of Utah.
    There will be no way that the Republican nominee will be elected if Palin is again the VP nominee. None of these candidates will even consider her as a choice of being their running mate. Palin is simply unelectable in these times. She is a true conservative and I like her a lot, but, she is simply unelectable (unless she runs for something other than President or VP). She should get her own Fox News show!

  • littlehouse18

    The press will pull the same number on her. Sad to say, any conservative female will be savaged and portrayed as extreme. And it will be just successful enough to ruin our chances.

    I think we need two males on our ticket, even if it’s not fair.

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    “” there probably can