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The Real Story Why Cain Won the Florida Poll and What the Front Runners Can Learn From It

Re-posted from Pajamas Media

The Republican Party of Florida sponsored what was essentially a fundraising event in Orlando called Presidency 5, from Thursday, September 22nd through Saturday, September 24th.

The highlights of the three day event were Thursday night’s Fox News/Google Republican presidential candidate debate and late Saturday afternoon’s presidential straw poll.

This straw poll was light years away from generally accepted polling practices.

Delegates eligible to vote, selected back in June, were state wide local Republican club activists. Consider the high costs of a voting; delegate registration was $175 paid to the Republican Party of Florida, coupled with a “special” attendee hotel rate. The total with taxes was $357 for two nights.

So do the math.

Delegates shelled out a minimum of $532 to attend and that is before the $120 average registration cost of CPAC (The Conservative Political Action Conference) which also held its first Florida event in conjunction with Presidency 5. A majority of delegates attended CPAC that featured all the presidential candidates speaking on Friday, fresh off the Fox/Google debate the night before.

The high cost of attendance was important because delegates who eventually selected Herman Cain as the surprise winner were overwhelmingly a well- heeled middle-aged crowd who had the time and money to attend both CPAC and Presidency 5. In other words, not necessarily your average Florida Republican voter.

From my personal experiences over the three day event, I believe Herman Cain’s triumphal victory with 37% of the vote from 2,657 delegates was NOT a fluke. However, it is also NOT a national game changer with Cain as the new frontrunner to challenge Perry and Romney. Rather, it was a positive emotional response to Herman Cain, the man, with some “teachable moments” for the frontrunners.

Herman Cain showered the delegates with lots of love, inspiration and political wisdom. The delegates in turn, received his love. In fact, they were positively smitten, and rewarded Cain with their votes. This blossoming love affair unfolded slowly and built up to a frenzy right before the straw poll votes were cast.

After Thursday night’s Fox News/Google debate, Perry, who national polls showed was leading going into Florida, disappointed the audience and that sent Romney trending upwards in the minds of the delegates. This was all chronicled here the next day.

At the debate, Herman Cain made an emotional connection with the audience when he answered a question about how poorly he would have fared under ObamaCare instead of what became his miraculous triumph over stage four cancer. But, by no means was Cain considered the debate winner among the delegates. That unofficial title was bestowed on Mitt Romney.

Even Rick Perry at Friday afternoon’s CPAC speech urged the audience not to nominate “the slickest candidate or the smoothest debater,” a poison dart obviously aimed at Romney’s superb performance the night before.

So what happened between Thursday night and late Saturday afternoon that enabled Cain to win over the hearts and minds of 37% of the delegates, with Perry receiving 15.4% and Romney 14%?

As one of the delegates succinctly said to me shortly after Cain’s victory was announced, “Cain is a businessman; he groomed us, he entertained us, and he closed the sale.”  Another delegate leaned first towards Perry, than after the debate towards Romney, and ended up voting for Cain, because he said “Romney ignored us” and “his organization was poor.” (This activist crowd actually grades candidates on organization, which is probably a good thing.)

If 80% of success is just showing up, as Woody Allen famously said, than Herman Cain took Woody’s advice, ran with it and won a resounding victory.

Cain not only “showed up” the entire three days but he did some ol’ fashioned preaching and inspiring along the way.

“Yes We Cain.”  “Cain is Able.”  “Hope and Cain.”  So read the signs and buttons.

Cain was the only candidate who stuck around to speak Friday night to a large room packed with delegates attending CPAC’s “Reagan Reception.” (No Reagan connection in sight, but these are Republicans and Reagan is their modern day George Washington.)

There, Cain mesmerized the crowd with what I call a cross between a Tony Robbins-style motivational speech and a Sunday morning church sermon in a slow, deep, voice that sounded like the movie voice of God.

Furthermore, Cain was always present when the other frontrunners had either left the state (Romney especially) or were otherwise too busy or too uppity to socialize freely with “the folks.”

Cain showed he cared enough to send his very best –himself.

(Apologies for that old Hallmark ad line)

One Romney-supporting delegate, who did not vote for Romney, told me why he changed his vote, saying “Cain made us feel important” and “Romney ignored us.”

Then came the final curtain call right before the straw poll votes were to be cast.

All the candidates were given 15 minutes to appear on stage and make their case. Ron Paul sent a surrogate (snore). But Herman Cain gave such a rousing speech bringing the delegates to their feet (shades of Obama 2008 minus the fainting) that Rick Santorum, who had the misfortune of following Cain on the stage, said in jest that he was going to fire the staffer who decided that order of appearance.

Newt spoke next (more snores), and Huntsman sent his lovely wife and family as surrogates, but Cain’s performance was still echoing in the minds of all the delegates.

Up next was Rick Perry who also sent a surrogate, but many delegates decided that was a good time to take a break and exit the room. Not a good sign for Perry.  And then it was suddenly announced it was time to vote. What? No Mitt Romney or Mitt Romney surrogate? Delegates were flabbergasted. “Mitt dissed us.” “He will pay for this”, were the prevailing conversations.

So, instead of Santorum joking about firing a staffer for having to follow Herman Cain, Romney really needs to fire the staffer who advised him not to at least send a surrogate or even show a video like Huntsman. Those lost 15 minutes cost Romney dearly. His campaign committed the cardinal sin of ignoring activists who crave attention and want you to show them the love in exchange for their support.

It turns out Romney was in Michigan. He left shortly after his early Friday morning CPAC speech to attend a Republican gathering with their own straw poll. In Michigan, Romney took 51% of the vote, to Perry’s 17% and Herman Cain’s 9%.

It all goes to show that Woody Allen is right. When it comes to life and politics 80% of success is just showing up.

Several delegates were telling me about a subliminal message they hoped to send the nation with their vote for Herman Cain, who just happens to be an African American conservative. They wanted their vote to prove that the GOP and the Tea Party are not racist (take that Morgan Freeman and Black Caucus) but instead are willing to embrace a man of color whose personal story and political philosophy they whole-heartily support.

There are several lessons to be learned from Herman Cain’s victory at the Florida straw poll. First and foremost, Florida Republican activists want to be courted. This vote also shows “Florida has attitude,” as one delegate said to me immediately after the results were announced.

Front runners like Romney and Perry need to take a page out of Herman Cain’s playbook and be prepared to spend a great deal of time showing Florida the love and taming that “attitude.”

This is because delegates at Presidency 5 and other Florida Republicans not in attendance are very proud of the fact that the road to the national nomination runs through the Florida 2012 primary and, subsequently, they are going to make all the frontrunners pay a steep toll in time and attention.

COMMENTS

  • kmpesq

    Everywhere we look this Monday morning, we’re seeing reports of how, despite this resounding victory, Herman Cain cannot be our nominee. My question is, Why?

    This article shows that Mr. Cain can be a very successful candidate because he has a great message, great personal story and the ability to connect with regular people that none of the other candidates seem to possess. I’m not saying that Mr. Cain WILL be the nominee. What I am saying is that he COULD be the nominee. Ultimately, it is up to us who will be the nominee, not the MSM, the establishment or the conservative punditocracy. We let the MSM, establishment and punditocracy tell us who we should nominate last time and ended up with McCain. How’d that turn out?

    The battle for the future of our country will require courage. The first act of courage is in selecting our nominee. We must not allow ourselves to be told who to support. Do some research on your own. Read about the candidates, pro & con. Then, make up your own mind. Make these people earn the right and honor to be our nominee. Only by putting them through the crucible will we have a nominee strong enough to take down Zero.

    For the sake of the Republic, make up your own mind and stop letting others make it up for you.

  • freentn

    assessment but it appears that Cain’s win was primarily a protest vote against Romney for his liberalism and Perry because he did not handle PR well in Florida after a poor debate performance.

    I will keep an open mind about Cain to see if he gains substantial traction in the Scientific Polls and fund raising.

  • LiveStronger

    He needs to start by winning statewide office somewhere. That is always a precursor for running for president.

    In the last 200 years at least.

  • streiff

    right?

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    CW

  • LiveStronger

    He played the straw poll game very well in 2008, and was criticized for trying to “buy the election”.

    So now he’s appealing directly to Republican primary voters without trying to compete in straw polls like the one in Florida where a win would be described as “well, he paid for that one” and a loss would be catastrophic, as his loss in the 2008 Iowa caucuses was.

    It’s better not to compete in a straw poll if there’s no way to win.

    Smart move, Mitt.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    no text

  • streiff

    read the comment I responded to. You will note the word “always” in there.

    It is an obviously ridiculous statement as in the last 200 years there have been several major candidates for president who have never held a statewide elective office. http://artandhistory.house.gov/mem_bio/mem_pres.aspx Like Abraham Lincoln.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    I just don’t know that I’d hold up Gerald Ford as my example. Just sayin’

  • freentn

    From Latest CNN Poll taken after September 22 Debate:

    According to the survey, which was released Monday, 28 percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they support Perry as their party

  • kevinj84

    Then maybe you could tell us why, since you have been posting this on every thread I’ve seen about the sp, the votes weren’t more evenly divided among the lower tier candidates? Or why they didn’t go to another, like Paul?

    I know you are going to argue that the Democrats sabotaged the voting, and bought 500 votes with $10,000 (at least you did on another thread), but that dog just don’t hunt.

    As for another claim you have made, that one of Perry’s staffers “saw” people voting for Cain, while wearing Romney buttons, maybe that was a Democrat conspiracy to smear Perry smearing Cain…or something.

  • http://www.sunshinestatesarah.com SunshineStateSarah

    I was there all week. And with full access to everything – I had both a media pass and a delegate pass.

    This was NOT a protest vote. Watch the youtube videos as the results are read. That “establishment” Republican audience leapt to their feet and cheered like their football team had just scored a touchdown.

    Florida was excited and proud to vote for Cain. I know a LOT of my fellow executive committee members around the state and they voted FOR Cain, not just against someone.

    …and it’s not just a fluke…

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/28/fox-news-poll-gop-race-top-tier-now-romney-perry-and-cain/

  • cwilson

    First, my assessment after the debate (and yes, I was one of those “activist Republicans” who was there) was that Santorum and Cain won — not Romney. Romney looked small during the silly back-n-forth over what was in which edition of each other’s books.

    Second, not all of us were well-heeled. I’ll (sadly) admit to being middle-aged, but I stayed with family to avoid the hotel costs, and didn’t attend CPAC. The hotels were all adjacent to the convention center — but there were quite a few cars in the convention center parking lot, so I assume a decent number of delegates from Orange, Seminole, and perhaps other nearby counties also avoided the hotel costs.

    Third, I really don’t think it mattered much whether “Romney dissed us” or not. There was a strong Anybody But Romney current all weekend; I doubt there was much Romney could have done to win the poll, but perhaps he might not have lost it so badly.

    Finally, your explanation of the ‘care and feeding of needy activists’ as the reason behind Cain’s win runs afoul of a countervailing fact: Santorum also was constantly mingling with the crowd. For example, early Saturday morning Santorum stationed himself right in front of the main entrance to the meeting hall, talking with the entering delegates and taking questions from all and sundry. Both Cain and Santorum, as I understand it, held numerous meet-n-greets in the various hotels all weekend. So why wasn’t the “protest vote” distributed evenly between Cain and Santorum?

  • papabear

    Am I correct in assuming that you voted for Cain?

    If so, what were the major Pro-Cain reasons?

    If not, who did you vote for and what were the major Pro-XXX reasons?

    P.S. Full disclosure – I am on the Cain Train

  • http://www.myraadams.com Myra Adams

    Only Delegates Could Vote.

  • cwilson

    I was a delegate. I voted — for Cain. I’m still open to Perry, tho — but he needs to climb down on some of his statements, and establish some explicit positions, on paper (or electrons), on some of these vexing issues. Frankly, I’m open to anybody right now except Romney and Laup Nor (in the primary).

    But as of last Saturday, I thought (and think) that Cain is the best standard bearer for the GOP.