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Romney 46% to 45% Conservative Vote Signals Trouble Ahead

By: Myra Adams (Diary)  |  January 31st, 2012 at 11:29 PM  | 

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Sure Mitt Romney won a “landslide” in Florida tonight according to the Drudge Report headline at this moment, but was it really? Here are some numbers to consider: Romney won 46% of the vote BUT when 32% for Gingrich is combined with 13% for Santorum the total is 45% for the conservative team and suddenly Romney’s “landslide” disappears.

You can expect to hear Gingrich spout this line of thinking. He will use it as one of the reasons he will stay in the race, fight to the finish and why he thinks Santorum should drop out.

The 45% conservative vote vs. 46% for Romney proves once again just how polarized the GOP is in 2012.

When Romney eventually becomes the official nominee uniting the conservative wing will be his most difficult undertaking as the new party leader.

That is a problem Romney must successfully address if he is to prevail against Obama and one that Obama is counting on Romney to not solve.

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  • lapert

    When you combine Romney and Rick in the anti-Newt vote he was completely clobbered.

    By the way, happen to check out the last PPP poll to get a sense of how Santorum’s voters 2nd choices were split? It may surprise you to learn but it didn’t favor Gingrich at all. Turns out this whole Conservative vs. Mitt narrative is more about keeping bloggers busy than actually reflecting reality.

  • greyeagle

    Is a liberal Democrat poll and means nothing in this race in Florida. I think Romney will be facing more buyer beware as voters learn more about him.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    pollsters, period. In primary contests especially, where all of the respondents are Republican – unless it’s an open primary and they disclose their splits – they have an excellent track record.

    And please don’t point to a poll in a caucus state where they got it wrong. Everybody gets caucus states wrong and consistently by a wide margin.