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The Conundrum in the Race

No, Ahnold is NOT running.

The conundrum is that the potential candidates whom we would have the most confidence in in office, the “true conservatives,” are perhaps generally conceded to be the least experienced (not least qualified) and furthest right in the group, making them perhaps the least “electable,” because experience is what the independent swing vote is likely to deem most important, more important than consistent ideology or philosophy or how somebody voted on healthcare or energy tax policy, and it’s the swing vote that decides elections.  We have a dichotomy between what our heads tell us and what our hearts want.

The candidates whom our heads tell us are most experienced and most able to handle the majority of routine Presidential business well and maybe even get taxes and economics right, and are most likely to displace the current occupant of the Oval Office, are also the ones that our guts tell us would be most likely to commit an unacceptable swerve to the left in order to “get this bill through Congress” or fill a Supreme Court vacancy without too much fuss.  Our hearts want someone who knows that government-mandated health insurance must not be implemented further, that curly fry lightbulbs need no subsidies or mandates (and were in fact worth vetoing the bill that contained them as an add-on), that 40% income tax rates are immoral, and that a Secretary of the Treasury should not be a tax cheat.  This tension between our hearts and minds has resulted in a wide-open race, and I think it’s at the root of the frequent pleas to Chris Cristie, Paul Ryan, Rick Parry, et al, to get into it–simply put, we’re still looking for a white knight who combines all the characteristics we want in our President.  In reality, no such knight exists, nor ever will, but it’s also true that this time few of the hopefuls come very close.  We’re leery of the electability of our favorites and unsure of the conservative bona fides of those we consider most electable.

In the past, we voters have taken the word of candidates about what they believed about issues; sometimes they’ve been truthful and sometimes they’ve lied and sometimes they’ve felt they had to change their minds because circumstances had changed–”Read my lips, no new taxes (unless the Democrats in Congress tell me the world will end if I don’t sign)”–comes to mind, as does “All this additional health insurance coverage won’t cost us one thin dime more than we spend now.”  Even Ronaldus Magnus fell for a Democrat trick and raised income tax rates, but that was in the olden days when there were still some Democrats who had the best interests of the country at heart, even though their ideas were wrong, as always, but Reagan at least had some reason to believe them.

Now, no such reason exists, and conservatives fear the prospect of electing a Republican President who doesn’t have the grounding he needs to successfully stand up to the left.  Dealing with Democrats is necessary, but deal with them on our turf, not theirs.  In the current (potential) Republican field, there are only two or three who I would confidently predict would stand up for right over expediency EVERY time, who really understand the importance of conservative ideology.  There are a few others who would seem to understand what I just wrote, and several others who would dismiss it as too rigidly ideological.  Today, I can’t even guess which group contains our eventual winner.

What I can say is that if it comes from the latter group, we will need more than ever to do our best to make the Congress a RINO-free zone.  If we elect a Republican President who can’t bring himself to cut taxes, or withhold money from the remaining government mandated health insurance rollout, or cut spending deeply, or fire all those czars, we will need to protect the Party from him and the damage his Democrat-lite ideas will do.  A conservative Republican Congress can help with this.

So my hope is that the political media will question all the convention hopefuls about all these issues and many more and get some specific answers to indicate just what the candidate would do if faced with a cap-and-trade bill, or a bill to amend rather than repeal the current mandatory health insurance law.  Will s/he lay off federal workers, or freeze new hiring, or attempt reduction by attrition?  Push for Reagan tax rates?  Submit a 2008-level budget for 2013?  Support government buy-up of corporate stock?  Eliminate all subsidies, or just some?  Repeal labyrinthine regulatory laws that protect very few except the industries they supposedly regulate?  Define the Corporation for Public Broadcasting as a critically important government entity, worthy of borrowing money to support, or call it an expendable luxury, able to survive on its own?  What criteria would s/he use to determine which federal programs to cut or keep?  Does the Constitution mean anything?  What about Iraq?  Afghanistan?  Libya?  How should we be fighting those wars?  Why are we fighting those wars?  What about Iran’s nuclear ambitions; how does what were already doing in the middle east help or hurt our defense against that?  Don’t forget border security–will the lawsuit against Arizona be dropped?  Will our borders be made truly secure, or will lip-security continue?

{The press actually did this fairly well with candidate Barack Obama.  He made many definitive statements about what he would do, how he would do it, and how much it would cost.  We know that because we are very aware of which of those promises he has kept (few) and those which he has failed to keep (many).  We now know for sure which times he was telling the truth and which times he wasn’t, too.  He sounded so good when he made those incredible promises that 52% suspended disbelief and voted for him.}

I may be very wrong, but I think the candidate who has the most reasonable, concrete, definable, defensible and affordable answers to those questions has the best chance of any to win the White House next year.  (And of course, s/he will have to be able to get the attention of both the press and the public.)  That candidate will be able to convince true independents and Reagan Democrats that ideas are important, that our ideas are best.  But one more thing–s/he must be ready to refute all the Obamic lies that the Democrats and their supporters of all kinds will put out, doing so in a way that is credible, not open to spin, leaving no doubt which side is right and which side is simply saying what they think voters want to hear.  That person will be our white knight for 2012.

COMMENTS

  • http://stixblog.com Black River Wolf

    NT

  • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

    Very good points, well expressed.

    I do think the most important bit of your whole piece was in your last paragraph:
    s/he must be ready to refute all the Obamic lies that the Democrats and their supporters of all kinds will put out, doing so in a way that is credible, not open to spin, leaving no doubt which side is right and which side is simply saying what they think voters want to hear.

    I do think that that is THE crucial factor.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      I would take issue with your comments about how if we get a candidate who’s not really as conservative as we’d like, it would be all the more important to have a solidly conservative Congress.

      I just don’t think that this is an option — if for no other reason than the fact that the President appoints Supreme Court Justices and federal judges. That one issue should be a deal-breaker, in my opinion. We simply MUST not have any more judges or justices appointed by a RINO.

      • Flagstaff

        I don’t quite understand this one, however. Do you mean that under that circumstance it would NOT be even more important to have a conservative Congress, or that we just can’t afford to elect a non-solid-conservative President in the first place?

        I know I wasn’t as clear as I should have been, myself. The paragraph you refer to is

        “What I can say is that if it comes from the latter group, we will need more than ever to do our best to make the Congress a RINO-free zone. If we elect a Republican President who can?t bring himself to cut taxes, or withhold money from the remaining government mandated health insurance rollout, or cut spending deeply, or fire all those czars, we will need to protect the Party from him and the damage his Democrat-lite ideas will do. A conservative Republican Congress can help with this.”

        The underlying idea I was trying to express was that we can’t afford to have another do-nothing-conservative Republican Presidency. Another Bush, a good man who isn’t a solidly principled conservative, could conceivably kill the Party, not because he would be BAD, but because he will be seen after the fact as having missed many opportunities to advance conservatism.

        This diary sort of morphed as it came out. I started to simply state my ideas about why there is so much turmoil, such a split, about the candidates within the party–I had noticed the contrast of attributes that I wrote about in the first part. Then I somehow diverted myself into what turned out to be a position paper favoring (at least a bit) conservative credentials over “practical experience.” As a true-believing conservative, I DO think that conservative positions will win over Obama, if given a FAIR chance.

        • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

          I meant the latter. Even a good Congress cannot save us if we have a RINO in the White House — in my opinion. And one of the key reasons that that is true is the appointment of judges and justices.

          Although — on the other hand — we did see public outcry, channeled through Congress, abort Bush’s terrible nomination of Harriet Myers.

          • Flagstaff

            Even though we didn’t technically have the votes to stop it, I was sorely disappointed that Tim Geithner got more than a handful of Republican votes to confirm him, and he got very few questions based on the propriety of naming a tax cheat to be Treasury Secretary. The same holds for Justices SoSo and Kagan; they may not have been tax cheats, but they should have received very few Republican votes to confirm.

            The members who so voted are NOT members who would be much help in protecting us, the party, and himself from a squishy Republican President.

  • keepourrepublic

    Gary Johnson has the experience of governing AND rock solid limited government credentials. He was a successful two term conservative governor in a blue state no less where registered Republicans are out numbered by registered Democrats 2-1. He vetoed 750 bills and used his line item veto thousands of times. He shrunk the state government by 1,200 employees. He has the executive experience AND is a genuine limited government conservative.

    • Flagstaff

      I see your point, and it’s a good one, but I think he would tell you he is a libertarian, not a conservative, so I’m not sure about his stand on anything except legalization of MJ. I liked what I saw of him on the first “debate.”

      Also, he may not be able to “get the attention of both the press and the public.” Furthermore, becoming President is a completely different thing than becoming Governor of New Mexico, even though experience as a good governor is always a plus.

      A factor I didn’t write about is that we (collectively) have an internalized image that we think the President should look like. If we could synthesize all those images, my guess is that the closest candidates to that image would run from Romney and Parry down to Bachmann and Palin. Johnson would be closer to the B-P end. In fact, he reminds me of Sterling Holloway, who was decidedly not presidential….

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sterling_Holloway_reading_Peter_and_the_Wolf.jpg

      That is all very petty, but group psychology is a fact, and good politicians recognize it. It doesn’t mean anything more than that he has a steeper hill to climb than some others do. If Gary Johnson were to become our next President in 2013, I would be very pleased.

      • keepourrepublic

        but I would hope that the primary electorate can be persuaded to support the candidate who has the best record of asserting limited government principles in office.

        While I agree that becoming President is different then becoming Governor of new Mexico, the closest thing to being President is being a Governor of any of the 50 states.

        I confess I don?t understand the divide between some conservatives and libertarians. Quoth the Reagan: ?If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals ? if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.?

        • Flagstaff

          Maybe also where they focus their respective attentions. As a conservative sympathetic to libertarian ideals, I find libertarians to be somewhat quixotic, tilting at every windmill in sight.

          The Patriot act provides a good example. Libertarians want it repealed NOW. Conservatives are comfortable with giving it some time.

          That doesn’t mean I don’t have some agreement in principle with their arguments, but principle and reality sometimes don’t mesh perfectly.

          I take it Gary Johnson was not invited to the debate on Monday. Ron Paul carried the L flag better than he usually does.

          • keepourrepublic

            about the displaced priorities with the Patriot Act. I can concede them that it is important, but on the to-do-list it’s not in my top tier of concerns.

            I do think, however, that there is a boarder disconnect about limited government principles between libertarians and conservatives. “Limited government” means different things to them.

            I now draw a distinction between “fiscal conservatives” and “limited government conservatives”. Fiscal conservatives don’t have a problem with the size of government as such. Such conservatives buy into the premise of big government. They just want to run it more efficiently. Running a socialist system more efficiently is a world away from actually limiting the government to it’s proper role. Example: a fiscal conservative can live with Social Security as is or in some form. A limited government conservative knows Social Security needs to be phased out both for better results and for restoring one more aspect of our liberty.

            The disconnect over the nature of limited government principles may be the essential cause why so many limited government conservatives have left the party.

            After reading “Conscience of a Conservative” and “Glorious Disaster” I think that if Goldwater lived today a many conservatives would lump him in with Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.

  • keepourrepublic

    but I would hope that the primary electorate can be persuaded to support the candidate who has the best record of asserting limited government principles in office.

    While I agree that becoming President is different then becoming Governor of new Mexico, the closest thing to being President is being a Governor of any of the 50 states.

    I confess I don’t understand the divide between some conservatives and libertarians. Quoth the Reagan: “If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals — if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.”