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Oz’s Prediction Open Thread

By: Change Jar Conservative (Diary)  |  October 30th, 2010 at 03:35 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Yes, I know we need to vote and GOTV and harass our friends on facebook about getting out to vote.

A few points before my projections:

1) I think that the polls are still underestimating GOP turnout by 2 to 3%.

2) I think things are moving in the GOP’s direction.

So here is my, overly optomistic prediction going forward, please add your own:

House +86 (yes it’s a crazy number but if Cook says we can get 55 then I think we can push beyond it).

Senate +11 (although +8 won’t surprise me. Something between those two would surprise me).

Governors 33 at the end of the day.

I think Barney Frank will survive although I most certainly hope not.

COMMENTS

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  • froster

    We can say it is +86, but how about the particulars?

  • The_Rebel

    Barney Frank would have to lose. His loss would indicate a really big wave.

  • exitsfunnel

    I think that the senate going to be +8. The weird thing is that for all of the competitive races, there really aren’t any that I don’t feel like I have a strong hunch about who is going to win. If it’s not 8, I think that it’s more likely to be 7 and probably even 6 than 9. The only real disappointment for me this cycle is California. What’s wrong with Californians? Is it something in the water? They are on the brink of insolvency and they’re about to reelect the same people who put them there.

    The house is really anyone’s guess. I could imagine it being anywhere between +35 and +80. I’ll go with +48.

    With the exception of the few that I personally care about (CT, AZ, CA) I haven’t followed the Governor’s races too closely, but just to pull a number out of my backside, I’ll go with +6.

    -exits

  • Oz

    but I think we take most all of the tossups that RCP shows and half of the lean Dems.

  • belcatar

    Just because weed is illegal doesn’t mean people aren’t going to smoke it.

    I spent 29 years in California, and I got as far away from that place as I could get without needing a passport.

    California’s problem is that there are too many urban areas and not enough weed and protest marches to keep everyone occupied.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    to bail them out

    Sincerely,

    California’s Mom

    P.S. It would be sweet to 86 ” the Debitcrats

  • ref1

    Senate – +9, Nelson “converts” so +10

    House – +70

    Governors – +8

    Just remember 978 and you’re there.

  • SteveLA

    CA hasn’t got much of that “free government money” that JD Hayworth was promoting a while back, so Babs Boxer is having a hard time pointing to how good King Obama has been to the state. Matter of fact Babs hasn’t been running on how wonderful King Obama is and how her pal Nasty Nancy has been looking after the state back in DC.

    Babs is going to loose thanks to that failure to get that “free government money” from the King, and there’s not going to be any more of that after 2 November.

    Here’s another bullet coming CA’s way, defense spending is about to go down “big time” soon under Obama, for sure after Gates leaves, and how is that great news going to effect the state?

  • SteveLA

    I predict that Nasty Nancy will retire rather than face the loss of “Air Pelosi” when she looses control of the House and her speakership.

    The silver lining, if Nasty Nancy resigns her office before the new Governor gets sworn in, maybe the Girlyman Governator will appoint someone with a brain. If Nasty Nancy leaves office after Meg takes over, it will be her first test.