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My April 2011 WAG — 54% chance of a GOP prez in 2012 (T-Paw most likely)

So none of this is based on deep scientific polling or anything of that nature. Just twenty years experience in retail politics.

ASSUMPTIONS
I start with the assumption that Barak Obama is fairly beatable at this point in time.
The economy sucks.
Obama is trying to raise taxes while the economy sucks.
And in the meantime, he’s started a third war that we have no business fighting which should push down the left’s willingness to come out and fight (at least on the Coasts).
His “deserves re-election” and “country is headed in the right direction” numbers are horrific.

This leads to this:

Any Republican who doesn’t come across as “scary” or “stupid” has a good chance to win this thing (60%).

DISCLAIMER:
I prefer Daniels or Pawlenty (i.e if got to pick the next president and couldn’t pick me)

METHODOLOGY
1) Estimate the chances of a certain candidate to win the GOP primary
2) Estimate the chances of that person to win the general against Obama
3) Do the multiplication to get each individual Republican’s chances of winning
4) Do the subtraction and addition to compute a Democratic president vs Republican president

GOP PRIMARY — Chances to win
Pawlenty, Romney — 15% (best organizations)
Palin, Barbour, Bachman, Huckabee, — 10% (have a base to start with)
Daniels, Huntsman, Gingrich, Cain, Trump, Guiliani — 5%

Yep … that’s how I see the GOP race … I think we probably end up with Pawlenty or Romney, but they aren’t as far ahead as we might think.

CHANCES IN THE GENERAL:
Romney vs Obama — 55% (would be 60% if not for RomneyCare)
Pawlenty vs Obama — 60% (the anti-obama)
Palin vs Obama — 40% (I know a lot of conservatives who won’t vote for her)
Barbour vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for the accent and what it represents)
Bachman vs Obama — 45% (house member, lots of brash stuff out there to paint her as crazy)
Huckabee vs Obama — 70% (would be a disaster for the country, but he would win handily)
Daniels vs Obama — 65% (a bit of my bias, but I think the country is ready for an adult conversation, I dinged him in the primary for his “social truce”)
Huntsman vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for involvement in Obama cabinet)
Gingrich vs Obama — 40% (still are a lot of people with a negative opinion about Newt plus the soc-cons aren’t exactly going to rally to his side (wifes 1 to 3) … total squish on global warming as well)
Cain vs Obama — 50% (the lack of political experience will hurt him more than his executive experience will help him)
Trump vs Obama — 45% (we’ll never elect an actor … oh wait)
Guiliani vs Obama — 60% (I think Da Mayor will play well against Obama)

RESULTS
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 54%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 46%

Individuals:
Obama 46% (but the only DEM)
Pawlenty 9%
Romney 8.25
Huckabee 7%
Barbour 5.5%
Bachmann 4.5%
Palin 4%
Daniels 3.25%
Guiliani 3.00%
Huntsman 2.75%
Cain 2.5%
Trump 2.25%
Gingrich 2.0%

Have at it!

COMMENTS

  • 20jan2013

    Nice gratuitous slam on the Huckanator

  • http://slcliberty.blogivists.com randy streu

    nt

  • Bill S
  • 20jan2013
  • 20jan2013

    by blowing a gasket. Where is my gasket, and how do I blow it? I’m not the expert here.

  • http://slcliberty.blogivists.com randy streu

    This is where we start looking at candidates and deciding who works and who doesn’t. There are gonna be words said about potential candidates that aren’t necessarily super positive.

    Plus your ”YOU’RE a disaster for this site!” comment, sorry, smacks of personal affrontery.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • Diogenes314

    No, just calling out 11th commandment violators for who they are.

    As do Speaker Boehner, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

    And tell these yahoos to quit calling Senator Chambliss “Taxby” while your at it. TIA.

  • aesthete

    we’re supposed to keep our mouths shut?

    Reagan’s 11th commandment was never meant to be taken as broadly as many Republicans and conservatives take it today.

  • 20jan2013

    I wasn’t moderating, I was letting the original poster know I have the same opinion of his drivel that he has of Mike Huckabee. If you don’t like it, you’re entitled to your opinion.

  • 20jan2013

    because it was meant to be personal affrontery by the original poster. I’m sure if this is against the site rules, then neither CJC nor I will ever do it again.

    Seriously, if the frontrunner for the Republican nomination can be called a disaster for this country, then it’s not nearly as many bridges too far to say the original poster is at least equally disastrous.

  • http://slcliberty.blogivists.com randy streu

    And huck is only the frontrunner depending on whose poll you’re listening to.

    In CJC’s opinion, Huck would be a disaster. I’m not 100% sure I feel the same way, though I’m probably equally unimpressed by Huckabee as a candidate.

    What I meant was that your response sounded to me like you WERE, indeed, taking it personally. Actually, you responded in much the same way my 6-year-old has been known to respond to certain things. That’s not, generally, the way to begin intelligent debate.

  • Doc Holliday

    but it wont fly here.

    “Barbour vs Obama ? 55% (loses 5% for the accent and what it represents”

    1) actually Obama doesn’t have much of an accent
    2) actually Southerners have won much MORE than their fair share of presidential elections.
    3) stop being a jagoff

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I would never call him that.

    I prefer “liar” – see his whining commentary and denials about CFG’s comments about him and taxes. He denied he’d ever asked for new taxes despite being caught on tape a half dozen times pleading for new taxes from the AR legislature.

    Then theres “thief” – the little “wedding registry” thingy when he left the Governor’s office is beyond chutzpah.

    Or how about “compassionate socialist” – Huckabee has never met a problem that couldn’t be solved by more government. His comment to the effect that he’d show GWB what “compassionate conservatism” really means should be wake up call for you.

    Or how about “judgment impaired” – wanna talk about pardons?

    Then we’ve got “lousy party head” – Governor for ten years and the party was in shambles when he left. We have Obama to thank for fixing it.

    Hopefully Huck will stay at Fox, etc for the money and take good care of his family.

  • streiff

    as he’s a front page contributor.

    If you like creeping socialism I can see why you’re a Huckabee fan. He does a great job of tarting up big government by slathering on a religious patina.

    As an aside, if you are using the same calendar as the rest of us you’ll notice that we’re entering a primary season and the field is festooned with politicians who think they should be president. This is the stage where we examine them and winnow out the weakest. If you can’t grasp that concept and feel compelled to invoke the “11th Commandment” then I suggest you post somewhere else because your existence here is going to be Hobbesian.

  • renny

    I’d rather vote Huckabee or Daniels first, and I think we have had had our fill of S. governors, altho’ Barbour has the best bona fides as a Rep., but he isn’t photogenic or interesting. We have had enough of perfect Reps. who are not interesting, too.

  • 20jan2013

    I didn’t know the prospect of a Huckabee presidency scares you so much that you felt the need to jump to a banhammer implication (“nasty, brutish, and short”) as your only response to my defense of Mr. Huckabee from the drivel of the original poster.

    I don’t care if Aaron is the back page contributor, the middle page contributor, or the penultimate page contributor, or whatever he contributes, he is entitled to his opinion, and you’re not going to change my mind about that :-)

    –gay athiest conservative who enjoys a religious patina in his candidates LOL (just kidding on the “enjoys a religious patina” part)

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • belcatar

    I hope this isn’t a threadjack, but I was wondering what everyone thinks of Gary Johnson. He’s a new arrival to the field, but he was the Governor of New Mexico at some point. I admit I don’t know too much about him. How would he stack up with the other candidates?

  • Doc Holliday

    I may have to add that to my sig :)

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    bigotry re Fred Thompson’s so-called “accent” liability in accessing potential GOP candidates, made The Hill and WSJ. I think many northern whites (and some self-loathing mostly younger or old liberal hippie Southerners) have latent anti-southern bigotry out of ignorance and the human tendency to react negatively to those that are “different.” I had never seen so much of this until the blogosphere and here at Redstate. Not a lot, but also not insignificant.

    BTW, I also won a Hugh Hewitt vox blogoli column contest on Michale Steele column and have been on his show. The man is a brilliant lawyer, political thinker and Christian.

    I am very tolerant. Being a Southern lifer among those that suffered form past bigotry have evolved into the least bigoted. And even before we really improved, half of us voted for JFK! who couldn’t pronounce “Alabamer” or “Cuber”!

  • Doc Holliday

    has the preponderance of racism and segregation. I think Boston has the top honors but there is much competition.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908
    • He’s more of a Libertarian (capital “L”) than a Republican.
    • I think he did a pretty good job as Governor of NM, based only on the lack of public whining about him as opposed to specific accomplishments.
    • I seriously doubt, even he walks on water daily, if he can raise the money required to be competitve.

    I doubt he’ll be around long, for the final reason.

    And just for the heck of it, I’d take Johnson over at least half dozen of the current crop of “mentioned” folk.

  • acat

    the major problem being finding which of the other current contenders would benefit from that choice…

    Barbour/Johnson? Maybe .. but I don’t see either doing hugely well in the midwest…

    Pawlenty/Johnson? Kind of leaves the South out… unlikely.

    Daniels/Johnson? All the problems of Pawlenty/Johnson with the additional problem of overcoming the “anti-trucers”…

    Mew

  • aesthete

    but regarding #1, Johnson is actually pretty loyal to the Republican party. He was offered the Presidential and VP spots in 2000 by various LP leaders and declined the offer. He’s also stated several times that despite his disgust for some of what the Republican party has done, that voting LP/third party is a waste of time, and that it’s better to work within the Republican party than to split the vote. He’s pretty libertarian, but not Libertarian.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I don’t know what his skill set is or how he’d fit in what would certainly be a war zone in DC if a Republican wins.

  • aesthete

    Johnson doesn’t bring anything to the ticket as VP but possibly a few Ron Paul refugees.

  • http://www.libertydwells.com scottconklin

    “Conservatives” won’t vote for Palin, but they’ll vote for Mittens? You’d be in for one big surprise, apparently, at just how badly A Mittens run would be trounced by the Obama Regime. THERE is a guy conservatives won’t vote for.

    West, Pawlenty, Daniels, Bolton, Paul, all viable. But not Romney.

  • powertothepeople

    ahhhh haaaa haaaaa ha ha ha. You have got to be kidding, right?

    PS West will not run and he should not run. He is yet to prove a thing or prove that his actions match his rhetoric. And hob nobbing with Trump and supporting him does not bode well on his future.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Palin or Romney than for Paul.

  • 20jan2013
  • acat

    Although, as I understand it, crime and gangs in parts of D.C. are bad enough to be comparable to actual low-intensity kinetic actions…

    Look, D.C. is going to be a political war zone no matter who wins. I’d really like to get rid of the Boehner whining capitulators and, you know, actually *win the war* instead of re-negotiating the surrender every couple months…

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    who wins. And that reality is what keeps me looking for a strong executive who can get legislators to put aside their personal agendas and work toward a defined set of goals. If we had a dictatorship that wouldn’t be a big deal, POTUS could just shoot a few during the lunch break (worked really well for Stalin persuading the Duma). We don’t so if anything is going to be accomplished, that takes real leadership.

    You’re 150% right about Boehner, etal.

    Reflecting for a second, the model we do not need to follow is GWB after he got bit by the Ds on Iraq. He started out well, working with Congress to get strong support on both sides of the aisle on what he considered important legislation. After the Ds decided it was better to claim they’d been lied to he moved to the mode of leaving legislative issues to the Congressional leadership. Big mistake. And it looks like BO has found the secret hiding place under the desk in the Oval Office where GWB spent the last few years of his Presidency.

  • http://www.libertydwells.com scottconklin

    Romney won’t get the conservative vote. Anyone that votes for that person simply doesn’t understand the issues, his past and what needs done, or they are a lefty happy to replace Obama with another tool who will serve their purposes. Albeit at a slower pace.

    The point, obviously, is there are lots of people to choose from. Mittens is not one of them. We should be past even mentioning him at this point.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And you need to understand that there are two elections. First, a primary. And Romney will get a relatively small slice of “conservative” votes. As an aside, Huckabee will likely get more and he’s a significantly worse offering.

    Second, comes the general election. At that point conservatives had better suck it up and vote for whoever our Republican candidate is, even if it’s Romney – or in my case Palin.

  • catt

    DISCLAIMER:
    This is a case for Romney’s electability in the general IF he gets the nomination. Not a case that he’s a good choice in the primaries.

    By all rights Romneycare SHOULD have eliminated Romney from serious consideration already. But Trump is a far worse choice and he’s being treated like a serious possibility so obviously common sense has nothing to do with any of this.

    Let’s suppose that money and name recognition and a weak field give Romney the nomination. Oh and he’s got the Presidential Look. That’s worth a few percentage points right there.

    If Romney gets the nomination … what about the general? If the choice is Romney or Obama … OF COURSE Romney gets the conservative vote. Most of it anyway.

    He’ll lose some conservatives sure. On the other hand he’ll gain a bunch of independents who think Obama has really made a mess of things. And FiCons who are not SoCons. It’s the positive side of flip-flopping … both sides can hope that when the rubber hits the road he’ll flip or flop the way they would prefer.

    Romney would make a well calculated choice for Veep. Maybe M-Rom and T-Paw? T-Paw would go around to town hall meetings quietly shoring up SoCon support. While M-Rom goes on national TV showing off the Presidential Look and trying to convince everyone that he’s on *their* side. No matter what side that happens to be.

    See previous disclaimer. This is not an endorsement of M-Rom for the primaries. M-Rom is a better choice than T-Rump or M-Huck but that’s as far as I’ll go. All I’m saying is that if he gets the nomination M-Rom would have a good chance of beating B-Ob in the general. Especially if he can get T-Paw as a running mate. Peace. C-Att out.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Republican loyalty or creds. Simply making a poor attempt to point out that his “politics” are more “L” than “R”. He’s obviously smart enough to understand the downside of moving outside the party “mainstream”.

  • aesthete

    The LP is entirely dysfunctional, conspiratorial and ideologically very rigid. Though I would say that Johnson is libertarian in a way that many conservatives wouldn’t appreciate (marijuana legalization, anti-Iraq War), he is much more pragmatic than the LP party types. As an example, he supports a universal, flat voucher system for education, whereas the LP favors absolutely no government intervention in education markets. He also rejects various conspiracy theories about the Fed, trutherism, birtherism, FEMA, etc which have been given a wide berth in the LP. IMO, he’s more comparable to Milt Friedman than to Murray Rothbard or general LP types in his outlook — I don’t know exactly how that would shake out in the Republican party (my guess is not well), but he is at least credible in a way that RP and some of the other libertarian and Libertarian candidates have not been.

  • acat
  • acat

    That is, there’s not one candidate who seems to be able to rally enough SoCons plus FiCons to win the early primaries flat out.

    In the past, that’s led to the non-conservative candidates (McCain, Dole, Bush 1.0) to relatively easy victory in the primary… but since they can’t or won’t fight, they lead to a loss in the general.

    The model is Reagan. Pick one conservative, pick him or her early, and fight hard for the whole season, in all 50 states.

    Mew

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Precisely how does that model work again?

    By what mechanism did we ‘pick one conservative” in 80? We didn’t. The *primaries* and *caucuses* picked Reagan.

    That is how we pick candidates. There is no outside mechanism to do that.

  • Doc Holliday

    I don’t even see Goldwater. It seems to me we are fighting over understudies at this point. We are not searching for the next Grant, we are wondering who will replace Abner Doubleday.

  • acat

    …and he kept campaigning until he won in November, 1980.

    The result of Reagan’s narrow loss in the 1976 primary against Ford and his continued campaigning by way of editorials and speeches from 1977 forward meant he had a huge lead over other potential conservatives going into the 1980 primaries.

    If you look at the other GOP candidates in 1980, there were a lot more of what we’d consider moderates. It’s almost backwards from what has happened in years since.

    So, while it’s true that there’s no outside mechanism that picks candidates, there is nothing that prevents Conservatives from making their choice earlier than Iowa…. and quite a lot to be gained by our doing so.

    Mew

  • acat

    The thing Goldwater and Reagan brought was an intellectual edge to Conservatism that the squishy-wishy-washy touchy-feely “compassionate conservatism” of Bush 2.0 has all but erased.

    We, meaning “conservatives”, are not ready for a Reagan. I hope it doesn’t take Jimmy Carter’s Third Term for us to get ready…

    Mew

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    And you’re scolding them for not picking the same ones.

  • http://slcliberty.blogivists.com randy streu

    There isn’t.

  • 20jan2013
  • Doc Holliday

    come off as really boring people, and not manly enough. I tried watching that Gary Johnson video, and was so bored after thee minutes I gave up. I admit it is possible that I am the one with the problem, maybe I expect too much. But these guys all look the same and sound the same. I would take Dole over them, at least he has a great bio.

    What amazes me is that others can feel so strongly about these people, that is the part I can’t get. And I do blame Republicans, we have not created a decent farm team, it is like we did not study at all for the final. Ok, no more metaphors for the rest of the day!

    I hope I have this wrong, but it is how I feel at the moment.

  • Doc Holliday

    I see what you are saying here, very deep. I hope we conservatives find the clarity that people who hit rock bottom are said to sometimes do. And I hope when that clarity occurs, there is a man able to take the lead and win.

  • acat

    Because if we don’t choose one place we’re going to end up at the buffet place that nobody really likes but that everyone can agree on …

    I am not saying that we shouldn’t have a right to choose, arguing to limit the franchise, disrespecting any given groups’ view of who is “the best” … I’m just saying that it looks like conservatives are going to go into Iowa divided, and that every time that happens, we end up with a useless candidate.

    Just so we’re clear, I’m sick of the buffet place.

    Mew

  • acat

    but the truth is it does matter ..

    I could see a fusionist ticket generating some, a Barbour / Bachmann ticket or a Pawlenty / Cain ticket being two that pair a good, seasoned executive with a relatively outsider firebrand. Perry / Palin is a similar formula, although I’m not convinced either are going to get in.

    At this point, I’m looking for someone who has a solid resume’, who doesn’t have a lot to walk back, and whose F/U numbers aren’t insurmountable.

    Bachmann, Cain, and Giuliani are out, their resumes’ are too thin.

    I’m not convinced Daniels can “walk back” his “truce”, not sure Barbour can overcome his Foghorn Leghorn-isms or his lobbyist background … or that, given her inability to make a dent in 2+ years, that Palin can overcome her F/U deficit.

    That leaves a very thin field… and none of it is all that exciting.

    Mew

  • kestrel

    with these people. I’ve been trying to force myself to read about Pawlenty for months, but when I try, all of a sudden “Two-headed, green baby born to 1000-lb woman” suddenly becomes very interesting to me.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The passengers in a car have a simple means of determining a compromise pick.

    American conservatives, ahead of the primaries, do not. That’s why we HAVE primaries and caucuses.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    But there are some good columns about TPaw that will give you a good baseline for him. Google Pawlenty, Ed Morrisey and check out the PowerLine site – powerlineblog.com. They’re all MN natives and know a bunch about him.

  • kestrel

    that today’s weather is gorgeous…

  • kestrel

    Once there, I initially got sidetracked by an article in a WSJ ad that says Gary Johnson is a “proponent of legalized marijuana.” Have you guys covered this already? I think the debates with libertarians often come down to whether or not a person is raising kids.

    I did some reading on TPaw. There’s some good stuff, but I’ll have to read more. Too early to deal with details? Signing off. Happy Easter, everyone.

  • acat

    Right now, on Red State, it’s almost exclusively Conservatives.

    When we get to the primaries, it’s Conservatives and GOP Statists and Single Issues folks and the inevitable Operation Chaos cross-overs….

    I’m saying that in 1980, a very clear majority of Conservatives were behind Reagan. That was the first *and last* time it’s happened, and Reagan is the first *and last* Conservative President.

    I do not view this as coincidence.

    Mew

    p.s. spare me the whining about how great a conservative Bush 2.0 was – he struck on Compassionate Conservatism, whatever the pock that is, as a catch phrase and ran with it, muddying the definitions of conservatism until we now have statists who think they’re conservatives because they go to church.

  • acat

    It’s gorgeous here also, but early enough I don’t have to worry about Newton.

    Mew

  • Doc Holliday

    it beats staying inside talking about boring politicians :)

  • kestrel

    except for the Pawlenty part. What’s Newton? What do you mean?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So you turned this thread into an excuse to start Bush bashing.

    Whatever, carry on.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    It’s in a thread over in the diary that Bill S put up yesterday on Palin. Somebody who knows some specifics on him tossed in some interesting stuff, but as far as the MJ goes, I think it’s more legalization of medical MJ than an across the board legalization. He had some problems with pain that the MJ helped (he got it legally) and that was mostly the basis for his favoring it.

  • Doc Holliday

    I don’t see how it could affect raising children. Americans like to call for extremes, such as legalization or prohibition, as if the law should be everything and personal responsibility nothing.

    It might surprise a few here, but marijuana is not “legalized” in any country that I know of. And to be clear, it is not legal in the Netherlands or the city of Amsterdam. Several European countries have decriminalized marijuana so that personal use can lead to a citation but not jail time. See, what this does is allow people to act responsibly and the police to act with discretion. What it allows is for people to be treated as, well, people. If someone using marijuana causes a nuisance or crime, they get busted. If they have some marijuana and don’t bother anyone, they are left alone. Again, the key is personal responsibility. In America we often forget about allowing people to act as people, we want the government to treat us all like a bunch of children.

    It would be stupid to legalize all facets of the marijuana cultivation and distribution all at once. But we know our jails are crowded and we spend billions going after people who have committed no crime other than to choose one drug over the publicly acceptable drugs.

    I say we should allow small amounts to be grown for personal use; the same as we allow people to brew their own wine and beer. If someone commits a crime after smoking a natural weed they grew themselves, I am sure our bloated laws would have that crime already covered.

    People need to stop looking to the government for their salvation, it is a false god.

  • aesthete

    or how helpful. It seems no more significant to me than the fact that more years of college tend to make a person more liberal. At any rate, I find the difference between what one would call mainstream three-legged conservatism and libertarianism less significant than the differences within the conservative movement. (Case in point, the difference between the semi-reformed Trotskyites and social democrats who comprise the neo-conservative movement, and the old-school George Will wing of conservatism.)

  • Diogenes314

    Not just medically, but from a general theory that ‘prohibition’ is counterproductive and stupid.


    ” alt=”Gary Johnson on legalization” />

    Across the board most of his policies are pretty solid (from what I can tell). I especially like his support of school choice, he’d make a great Education Secretary (until we can shut that sucker down) if nothing else.

    And I personally don’t care one way or the other on the pot thing. That’s just me though.

  • aesthete

    came from when he was governor and saw how much it cost to maintain (something like 50% of his state’s legal and prison apparatus was tied up with drug stuff).

  • Doc Holliday

    the “pot heads” so many hate here are the ones who push the “control, regulate, and tax” crap. If you use that argument, then all you care about is some sticky bud. I don’t think it should be controlled, regulated, and especially TAXED”

    People should be able to grow their own marijuana for personal use, they should be able to distill spirits, and pop off a few caps if their land is suitable..

    I am arguing for freedom and LESS GOVERNMENT, I will not co-opt Leviathan for my personal use. If I did that I would be just like those I criticize.

  • powertothepeople

    decriminalize cocaine, heroin, meth, etc. It is all being used by people who want to do what they want to do. While we are at it, lets just legalize all vices such as prostitution. Because by golly, no reason for us to expect the government to write laws that reflect the majorities sentiment or “impede” on anyone’s right to do as they please. But lets go further, lets end all laws that make having sex with animals illegal because we do not want the government treating us like children.

    Come on, having laws that reflect the general morality of the population is not treating us like children. Weed is not a victimless crime no matter how much people want us to believe it is. Legalize all drugs today and there will still be crimes due to the drugs whether it be fighting over control on who sells it, fighting over turf by the black market dealers, crimes due to someone wanting the drug but not having the money, etc.

    And people being stigmatized and being “unable” to get treatment is not a valid reason to legalize something. A) they were stupid to get on the dope in the first place, B) Who pays for this treatment (it will become another entitlement program), C) you can make voluntary admission for treatment a non criminal act (oooops it already is), D) the so called pleas for treatment is a ploy to avoid time for the crime.

    And I do not feel a slight bit of pity for those in jails. in fact the moment a person uses that type of nonsense to claim reason for legalization, I immediately ignore the reasoning. No one is in jail for any other reason than they chose to ignore the law and now they are paying the price. Even with weed, people know the risk, know the law, and chose to ignore it.No reason to feel sorry for them now. And the reality is you could take every person out of jail today for weed related offenses and the jail would fill back up again. Legalizing weed is not going to stop the crime nor will it cut the prison budgets. WHY? Because very few people are in prison for smoking a little weed.

  • kestrel

    to your satisfaction, but if I’m not mistaken, you’re not raising kids at present. :) I think I see your distinction between “legalized” and “decriminalized,” which I hadn’t been aware of before. I’ll have to think about it more. BTW, we can reduce our prison population by 25% by enforcing immigration law.

  • aesthete

    I agree that he’d be a good Secretary for something; he was a good manager (both when he ran his business and his state’s executive branch). Since I doubt that he makes President, I hope that he gets an appointment of some sort for a Secretary position (though I find that doubtful, as well).

  • Diogenes314

    Not just the money but the abject futility.

    Like I said, I think either POV is valid. If 50% of the state wants to legalize it, I’m for it. If not, then no.

  • Doc Holliday

    I can’t add to it by responding

  • Diogenes314

    Sounds good to me. As long as a majority of the voters favor it.

    And BTW, why exactly is prostitution a crime-and adultery considered a hobby? And no-fault divorce the law of the land in nearly every state?

    You want to ‘defend marriage’, maybe you want to start by having the government cease and desist turning a sacrament into a meaningless joke.

  • aesthete

    when anywhere from 25-65% of our law enforcement dollars are going towards getting people to stop using a drug, it’s incumbent on those supporting the policy to demonstrate that there are harms prevented by their given policy which are commensurate to the amount that we are spending on said policy. Thus far, this has not been done: we are instead subjected to horror stories of societal collapse and other ridiculous counterfactuals that haven’t come close to materializing in those places where drug laws have been liberalized. There are no economic studies that I am aware of that come close to justifying the enormous costs (monetary and otherwise) that the WoD has been. There are many studies from GMU, Harvard, LSE, and plenty of other economic schools which show that the drug war actually costs much more than what it saves us. Drug warriors haven’t even come close to meeting their stated goals. Drugs are incredibly easy to get in schools and other places where kids hang out. In my book, that’s a failure: essentially, it’s the right’s equivalent of liberals who claim that grandma will starve in the street if the SS retirement age is raised to 67.

    The use of drugs is in and of itself very much victimless. I know many professionals both in the medical and economics professions who use a variety of illegal drugs who are productive members of society. I can’t say that I approve of their decision to use drugs, and it certainly is a negative influence on their lives, but there are plenty of behaviors that I don’t agree with that should nonetheless remain legal. OTOH, I have met many who are on welfare, food stamps, etc whose only addiction was to video games.

    When it comes right down to it, most people who are on welfare or who commit crimes while using drugs are doing it because they are violent or lazy people, or because their subculture encourages such behavior, not because of the drug in question. Much of the “drug culture” could more accurately be called the “fatherless culture”. 70% of those in jails are fatherless — that percentage is even greater for those who are in jail for violent and property crimes. The amount of children who are left fatherless as the result of the drug war is a large and ever-increasing figure; perhaps that father was not a model one, but a less-than-stellar father is nonetheless better than an absent one in almost all cases.

    BTW, the notion that government should “reflect the general morality” of society is a dangerous one: I hardly think that any of us would think it just or appropriate if a Muslim-dominated country were to sentence us to death for blasphemy, or were they to drown our daughters for the high crime of being rape. Ultimately, freedom is nothing if it does not include the freedom to do wrong: no one needs the freedom to live a risk-free, productive, unobtrusive life that offends no one.

    Somewhere between 40-45% of all Americans have used drugs at some point in their lives. If the claims of drug warriors are true, we should be knee-deep in half-starved junkies every time we go to the shopping mall. The fact is that most people either a) know how to use without harming others, b) take steps to stop when they realize they can’t handle it, or a mixture of the two. It is a very small percentage indeed which remains addicted, and you know what? That’s their choice, and as tragic as it is, only they can change the conditions which draw them to the drug in question. Considering the high incidence of sexual abuse in prison, and contact with overall terrible people, and the damage that 5 years in prison can wreak on a young person’s future earnings, life, etc. is it really justifiable to lock them up for using pot twice?

    I don’t pity drug users who get put in jail — or rather, I do, but I pity their families and society in general much more. You and I are paying the DEA so that the government can continue to break up the black family, create criminals out of people who were merely losers before going to jail for smoking, and to unnecessarily expand government under the pretense of being overwhelmed by masses of people who won’t know how to control themselves without government. It’s a pity that it’s conservatives who are egging this on, rather than liberals.

  • Diogenes314

    And obviously more tolerant.

  • powertothepeople

    you make the same type argument that a 15 year old would make, “daddy does not let me stay out after midnight, I am no kid”, you justify legalizing weed because it is a personal choice, you bring up countries that have decriminalized weed, yet some have also decriminalized heavier drugs going as far as setting up shops where users of heavy drugs such as heroin can come get their fix, you raise the treatment issue even though no treatment center in this country, whether self paid or free, has to report their patients and or their drug use, and you bring up the famous jail issue when the reality is few people are in jail for smoking a little weed. And the best response you could come up with was beclown. What a joke.

    Maybe you should try to argue your point without the adolescent nonsense and actually use arguments not based in hysteria and nonsense and use facts instead. That way, maybe your “friend” can win the battle to legalize dope and be a dope head without fear of a ticket.

  • Doc Holliday

    and since when do we make laws based on what the majority finds to be moral? Last I heard a democracy was two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner. A republic gives the lamb the right to not be on the menu.

  • powertothepeople

    nonsense mean and what does it have to do with anything? Defend marriage, yep that had everything to do with the topic.

  • Diogenes314

    Okay, maybe the Bay area.

    It would need to be a local ordinance and insure mutual consent, of course.

  • acat

    Since I mentioned Bush 2.0 precisely twice, and since I haven’t seen where Red State in general regards him as a champion of conservatism, I will, as you suggest, carry on.

    I’ll stand by my assertion – we’re going to go into the primaries divided into bite sized groups, each one backing a different “conservative” candidate, and we’ll end up with a damaged, not-very-conservative nominee as a result.

    Mew

  • Diogenes314

    Otherwise, I’d drink to that. I think I’ll go have a cig instead.

    Lifelong nonuser as far as the other stuff goes, BTW. But to each his own.

  • powertothepeople

    without being long winded, there is not an overpopulation of prisons due to smoking a little weed and to claim otherwise is not backed in fact. as to how they are treated in prison or what happens to them, another subject all together but irrelevant anyways. I know the law, you know the law, and if a person chooses to break the law, their choice, What happens after is not my problem. If bad things happen to them in prison or their life is altered due to their choices, their problem. I have never been to prison or jail. Why you ask, because I follow the law.

    As to the black people claim, nonsense. This is the same argument used by the likes of Jesse Jackson and so on concerning the crack epidemic. Police were persecuting the blacks by focusing in on what had to be the worst devastation caused by any drug. Guess where the majority of selling was going on, yep that is right, the black community. Again, they made the choice, pay the price.

    As to the cost, who knows. But cost should not be a reason as to why or why not to enforce our laws. Every crime cost money, prisons cost money, lots of it. Does not mean we need to get some accountant to figure out if the cost is worth it. We need to enforce laws until they are no longer laws. A single murder trial will cost the state millions. Do we stop pursuing those cases due to the cost? And when you disregard the nonsense that our prisons are full of some poor weed smoker, the argument becomes void. The majority of people in prison for weed are there for much more than smoking a joint and or are repetitive offenders who do not seem to learn a lesson. It is a nonsense argument that somehow our prisons are filled with poor smucks who just wanted to smoke a little herb.

    And as to social destruction, come on. One only has to drive to their nearest ghetto to see the absolute destruction drugs have brought to a community. One only has to read about the murders being committed all around the world over drugs including weed. One only has to look up turf wars over drugs to see the damage and weed is a drug that has been fought over. One only has to look at local police blotters to see how many crimes are committed to obtain drugs or to steal another drugs, weed included, to see the damage.

    It is pure nonsense to argue somehow our country will be made better by legalizing weed or that somehow our country will save money by legalizing it. Our southern neighbors are not going to stop bringing it in, killing to protect their trade, people in this country will develop black market sales to avoid government regulation and crime will follow that, not too mention the slippery slope our government lives on and the soon to follow cries that one should be able to smoke crack if one chooses and they will simply use the same argument the above poster used. The slope will not end and eventually we will be hearing cries similar to the above nonsense about everything else. Ooops we already hear those cries from groups such as NAMBLA.

    It it quite telling when a liberal state such as CA defeat as weed bill and as long as moral citizens continue to have a say, it will continue to be defeated around the country. Dope heads can continue to be dope heads, but they will continue to pay the price for their choices.

  • Diogenes314

    Before the words Senator and Franken were ever used together, BTW.

    Cliff’s notes version-a combination of proportional voting and instant runoffs would help to prevent us ever being saddled with another McClown-and encourage Losertarians, ‘independents’ and fence sitters to get involved in a positive manner.

  • acat

    … but you left out the obscure historical footnote that Apple once had a PDA called the Newton.

    Mew

  • acat

    … and as I’m not in New York I’m not quite clear on how it works but .. multiple parties can name one candidate as theirs, so the GOP candidate can also be the Conservative candidate while the Dem can also be the Labor and Communist candidate.

    That would let, for instance, the GOP run someone as both the GOP and Tea Party nominee… sort of a way to have the third party cake and eat it too…

    Not sure… and not willing to relocate to New York to find out…..

    (Illinois fusion is simpler – there’s the GOP and the Dems, and the corrupt fusion of the two, the Combine…)

    Mew

  • 20jan2013

    I use the exact same language that original poster used, but only I’m the 6-year-old. And it’s cool he refers to Governor Huckabee that way. OK. If I have any of that wrong, let me know. Otherwise, gotcha. 10-4. Roger. Comprende.

  • 20jan2013

    but I don’t see any of the other candidates stacking up better at this point.

  • 20jan2013

    Obviously youre not a socon.

  • acat

    20jan2013, the point is that the Reagan model required someone to start running after McCain lost in 2008, starting now is starting too late.

    The case can be made that Huck is trying to follow Reagan’s model. Same is true of Palin and Romney as well.

    None of them seem to be able to make it work, though. Huck still leaves a slimy impression to me, Romney is still going to get clubbed like a baby harp seal over Romneycare, and Palin hasn’t budged her unfavorable impression among the squishy middle who will actually decide this election.

    Far as I can tell, Romney has been entirely behind the scenes since 2008…

    In part, the problem is the medium – Reagan and Goldwater before him created an intellectual edge that Huck on TV can’t match, Palin has actually come closest with her Facebook postings…

    I’m not sure any of them have the other ingredient Reagan had – the ability to really work the media. Huck’s folksy is unappealing; Romney still has his robotic perfect hair, teeth, and bank account; Palin really hasn’t engaged the media, although they’ve traded shots.

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    of following in RR’s footsteps electorally, there are serious problems.

    First of all, Reagan was a serious student of foreign policy and, to a lesser extent, economics. He also had a solid understanding of small government principles.

    With respect to the three stooges, none of them has demonstrated ANY appreciation for small government and personal responsibility in the elected positions they’ve actually held. They can all sing off-key when it comes to the subject, but basically Huck is nothing more than a compassionate conservative, progressive who has never met a problem that government couldn’t solve. Romney just wants to deliver progressive services at a lower cost and Palin buys off legislators and constituencies.

    With respect to foreign policy and economics, I’m not sure any of ‘em has a clue about FP, but none of them could possibly be worse than BO and Romney would have be head & shoulders above the other two with respect to his general knowledge of economics, but he’s shown no willingness to apply that knowledge to elective office.

    IMO, zero for three.

  • 20jan2013

    He has been doing his TV and radio shows since BEFORE the 2008 election!

    Reagan was just a man, and if we pass on excellent candidates like Huckabee and Palin simply because they aren’t named Ronald, it would be a travesty.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Huckabee is worse than Palin. Or Paul.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    just ask Presidents Rudy and Fred.

  • aesthete

    I thought he was very well liked by the socons in his state, and that he moved the ball forward while he was in MN.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    only applies to others, huh.

  • http://slcliberty.blogivists.com randy streu

    Saying what he wants to say is fine. Mimicking him because you don’t like it makes you a 6-year-old.

    I’m not going to explain the finer points of adult communication. If you can’t figure it out, you’re going to find you have a rather difficult time of things around here.

  • 20jan2013

    I was addressing catt’s line about “shoring up SoCon support” which would have no credibility with true socons. Socons already have their favorites (Palin and Huckabee). However, I do believe all of the conservative family, including fiscons and socons and libertarians and hybrids thereof, are maintaining an open enough mind to hold off making a decision about who they really want to see get the nomination. Although I am merely a Huckabee leaner, I come across as a true believer simply in comparison to the amazing vitriol against him by some (and I mean only SOME, there are others like mbecker who actually make some valid points instead of just saying “slimy” or some crap).

    I like TPaw. He and I went to the same law school. I never met him. I trust him. He’d be a damn sight better than Romney. But I would never think he could “shore up” anything like socon support if he was doing it on behalf of Romney.

    I regret my choice of language in that I was not clear that my derision was more at the idea of any running mate could walk into socon (or any type of “con”) circles and sweet talk us into voting for Romney. Well, perhaps if the choice were Romney or Obama, yes that convincing could be done, but to get us to man the phone banks or make donations to a guy who started Obamacare before it was cool? No effing way.

  • 20jan2013

    as a governor in the bluest of states. The guy knows how to deal with people well and work effectively in a hostile environment. He is a good man. I wouldn’t have to hold my nose voting for him if he were the nominee. He may very well be the consensus nominee that bridges the Romney/Daniels crowd together with the Palin/Huckabee crowd, who seem to hate each other’s candidates with a passion.

    Because I have a feeling if the nominee isn’t T-Paw, a lot of the Romney/Daniels people are going to stay home rather than vote for Palin/Huckabee, and vice versa.

  • 20jan2013

    Clarifying that by “Romney/Daniels” I don’t mean that as a ticket, but rather either of those men as the Republican presidential nominee. Same with “Palin/Huckabee.”

  • Diogenes314

    just because he’s a clueless populist tool?

  • acat

    Becker has already pointed out several good reasons to dislike Huck.

    Palin’s another story – she’s got a gift for politics, especially bomb-throwing … the major problem I’ve got with her is simple – she wasn’t a notably conservative governor.

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    He sucked big time in 08 and if we can’t do better than a bald faced liar and thief who’s never met a problem that can’t be solved by government, we should give up.

  • Doc Holliday

    ..abee (I tricked you there :) ). However, you are all wrong about Reagan. Huckabee and Palin could change their names to Ronald and it would make no difference at all, they are who they are. And neither of them come close to Reagan.

    Huckabee in particular is not who we need, he is going against the tide of the party. He is the Rockefeller while the party is Goldwater 2.0. I know I will not change your mind, but I do know he will not be the next president.

    I give the guy credit for making a pretty watchable tv show, if he is smart, he will stick with it.

  • acat

    I don’t really think it matters.

    And yes, I’m hoping that the same crazy genius that led America to vote for Reagan in the first place will reappear… not giving us Reagan, but giving us the president we’re waiting for.

    You’re right, though .. the current candidate roster just seems .. meh.

    Mew

  • 20jan2013
  • acat

    Some of it is a regional thing, some of it is a generational thing…

    Huck uses a number of Southern religious cadences and phrases that, to an Irish Catholic kid from Chicago, just don’t sound right. You can take the kid out of the city, but to this day I can’t sit through a sermon by a minister with a southern accent without it sounding .. wrong.

    There’s also a clear divide between the Boomers and the “American Gen-X”, i.e. babies born before 1964 and those born after… the group before tend to react favorably to polished, practiced, well-rehearsed politics-as-theater, religion-as-theater, etc. Those born after distrust anything overly polished, it comes off as insincere, fake, slimy.

    This is going to be a challenge for Huck…

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    guy who is a licensed Pentecostal preacher. And who’s slightly older than Huck.

  • acat

    Any suggestions, other than the excellent breakdown of Huckabee’s deception on taxes, that you’d recommend pointing potential Huckabee supporters at?

    Mew

  • Diogenes314

    Point out that he’s the only candidate who’s been opposed to school choice and endorsed by the NEA.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    1. When he left office he and his wife set up the equivalent of a “bridal registry” and encouraged supporters to give them “house warming gifts” for their new private home since they’d been living in the Govs Mansion for ten years and were short on personal stuff.

    2. During the 08 campaign, in response to a reference to Bush being a “compassionate conservative”, Huckabee responded to the effect that “you’ve never seen a compassionate conservative until you’veseen me in action”.

    3. During his ten years as Governor he pardoned over 1000 convicted felons. Works out to two per week. Take it from a guy who’s been a volunteer prison minister for 30 years in six states and who has real empathy for those under the charge of the “corrections” system, in a state the size of Arkansas 100 pardons a year for ten years is ridiculous.

    4. Tax burdens for Arkansas tax payers increased significantly during Huck’s tenure. I don’t remember the exact numbers but they’re easy to find.

    5. The Republican Party was a disaster when Huck assumed the Governor’s job. After ten years, it was in no better shape. As the leader of the party he did nothing to grow it and built no bench.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    He’s been endorsed by the NEA. That alone should be the kiss of death.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    The Human Life Amendment and the FairTax.

    Huckabee garnered a whole bunch of SIVV support – especially in Iowa – with his call for a HLA. That got the pro-life groups motivated. What it didn’t get them to do was “think”.

    1. In order to pass an amendment you need 2/3 of both Houses plus 2/3 of state legislatures. Keep in mind that in 08 the Democrats controlled the House and Senate. The probability of some version of the HLA passing 38 state legislatures is slim and non.

    2. There have been seven versions of the HLA actually introduced in Congress. Of those seven, only two would actually declare abortion unconstitutional. Four of the other five essentially have the same effect as overturning Roe, that is the question is returned to the states. One is so convoluted as to be totally dependent upon the makeup of the SCOTUS.

    3. While Huckabee made great political hay about supporting a HLA, he never bothered to define which of the seven versions he supports or whether he would offer a new version.

    4. Huckabee never addressed, and was never pushed to do so, just how he would get whatever version of the HLA he supports passed. Never talked about how long it would take. He just waved it like a red flag in front of the Single Issue Values Voters who showed up for Iowa Caucus votes.

    Since I assume Huckabee is a reasonably smart guy, he had to know that passage of a HLA in any version let alone one restrictive enough to actually stop abortions was impossible for the forseeable future. This is just another example of his penchant to twist issues and flat out lie to people who are so desperate for an answer that they don’t bother to actually think about what he’s saying.

    Another one of his twisties would be his support for the FairTax. Huckabee had never uttered a word about FT before the 08 campaign. As he started his run, he had some big administrative problems, low name recognition, no organization and no money. He actually did a good job of dealing with these, albeit in the smarmiest of ways. Because of his background as a minister he was able to coopt the pro-life voters in a field that included no staunch pro-life advocates (see above). That gave him a motivated base, especially in low turnout caucuses and low turnout primary states.

    Still, he had no organization. As it turns out, the FairTax folks had a fair national organization assembled promoting the FT. They had never been able to attract any real attention from a national candidate before Huckabee came along and he jumped on the FT bandwagon. That got him organization instantly and at basically no cost. The fact that the guy was ignorant about the FT and never offered any specifics or really answered any questions about it was neither here nor there. Again, it got him a no cost organization and motivated primary voters. And all he had to do was essentially copy the HLA lie, offering Presidential backing to a group desperate for recognition.

  • Diogenes314

    Then why not decriminalize cocaine, heroin, meth, etc. It is all being used by people who want to do what they want to do. While we are at it, lets just legalize all vices such as prostitution.

    Nonsense indeed. All I was doing was agreeing with you though. If a majority of the electorate favors it, than it’s good with me.

  • powertothepeople

    and the basis of the argument. If you are agreeing the a majority rule applies as to the legality, then fine we agree. But still not sure what your posts has to do with the subject, how being against prostitution is associated with defense of marriage, or how you can make prostitution and adultery the same or similar.

    But even if a person wants to be a dope head and wants to use the tired and obnoxious argument as to what legalizing weed would make us a better country, now is not the time for it. Just as in CA their effort to legalize dope during these times was obnoxious and ill timed, the same applies to the rest of the country. And until dope heads and dope head supporters use a real argument void of non facts and bogus BS, I and many others will continue to confront their nonsense.

  • Diogenes314

    legalizing prostitution. Like that has anything to do with a majority of the people being allowed to legalize marijuana. Which was what Johnson supported, for very valid reasons.

  • powertothepeople

    because the same obnoxious arguments doc uses have been used by the pro prostitution racket, the pro cocaine use racket, in fact all the groups who claim a person should be able to do whatever they want without government interference. And when you head down a slippery slop, you will hit the bottom.

    But that still does not explain your reconciling of prostitution being similar or the same to adultery. Nor does it explain your defense of marriage rant.

  • Diogenes314

    Good to know. And thanks for pointing out the slippery slope from pot to crack to heroin. I guess by the same token, we should criminalize homosexuality or pretty soon NAMBLA will take over the GOP.

  • Doc Holliday

    btw, what is an obnoxious argument? I care are correct or incorrect arguments.

  • powertothepeople

    Or do you just skim and then type. Not once have I stated that majority rule is obnoxious and that is plain to see. In fact, the opposite is true.

    Try reading again and answer the clearly worded question.

    PS homosexuality and NAMBLA have zero in common, but nice try.

  • Diogenes314

    PS homosexuality and NAMBLA have zero in common, but nice try.

    Says the guy equating legalization of pot to bestiality.

    decriminalize cocaine, heroin, meth, etc. It is all being used by people who want to do what they want to do. While we are at it, lets just legalize all vices such as prostitution. Because by golly, no reason for us to expect the government to write laws that reflect the majorities sentiment or ?impede? on anyone?s right to do as they please. But lets go further, lets end all laws that make having sex with animals illegal because we do not want the government treating us like children.

    Apples and particle accelerators there.

  • powertothepeople

    in your world or are you not understandable there as well?

    Explaining things never seems to work with you, so I will simply wonder in amazement as to why your comprehension skills are bottom of the barrel.

  • Diogenes314

    To everyone except you. I’ll try to dumb it down to your speed:

    You are making idiotic comparisons and stretches-and I’m laughing at you. Unlike everyone else, I’m doing it out loud.

  • powertothepeople

    in your world ignorance is bliss and you make sense to yourself, then enjoy.

  • powertothepeople

    and this would have been a faster reply had power not gone down for a few, lets look at my horrible comparisons and stretches.

    I guess thinking decriminalization is far fetched huh?

    Mexico, personal use

    Portugal

    Holland

    Switzerland

    Columbia

    And so on and so on. All have decriminalized personal amounts or more of all, and I repeat ALL, drugs, have ALL set up costly tax payer funded rehabs, and have seen little provable lowing in use or crime other than what can be attributed, of course outside of CATO and Arlen Spector, to differences in acceptance, beliefs, lifestyle, and nation status as to wealth etc. So me stating that slippery slopes exist and it will only be a matter of time to where the rest of the heavy drugs would be the next argument is valid and is backed by history. As the esteemed Neil would say, learn you history, you are wrong.

    And the clue is easy to find. All of the bogus excuses used by the dope heads and their supporters boil down to BS and one main argument as demonstrated by Doc above and that is, I want to do as I want and no one has a right to tell me otherwise especially government. This is the juvenile “Daddy will not let me stay out past midnight on a school night and I am no child” cry. So going on the only argument they have, who are they to tell the crack smoker he or she can not do as they please and are they the ones who set the bar as to what the government can regulate and what it can not?

    Wonder if all this will pierce the shell of your world?

  • aesthete

    PTTP: “there is not an overpopulation of prisons due to smoking a little weed and to claim otherwise is not backed in fact”

    Me: That’s untrue. The number of people thrown in jail for drug offenses alone has gone up 550% in the last 20 years, bringing the percentage of the prison population in jail for smoking or shooting up to over 25%. In contrast, property crime and violent crime convictions have gone up only slightly. IIRC, 45 of the states in the union have their prisons at >90% capacity, and half of those are operating at >100% capacity. IOW, the increase of our prison population is largely attributable to the rapid increase in our non-violent druggie population in jail.

    PTTP: [I know the law, you know the law, and if a person chooses to break the law, their choice]

    Me: The rule of law is important. That is why I consider the WoD such a blatant offense: it is clearly being conducted in violation of the Constitutional limits imposed on the federal government, and the way that it is being prosecuted is eroding the 4th, 5th and 10th amendment at breakneck speed. No one here is arguing that the rule of law is unimportant. Rather, we are arguing that bad, un-Constitutional law should be changed, and that just as one would not expect a law mandating an 1800 curfew in NYC to be followed, or requiring church attendance on Sundays to be enforced, so too one should not drug laws that make ~45% of Americans out to be criminals to be enforced fairly or adequately.

    PTTP: “As to the black people claim, nonsense.”

    Me: The only thing I said about blacks was that the WoD is destroying the black family — a statement backed up by statistics and my own anecdotal evidence from working with blacks and hispanics. While I didn’t mention it above, it is an absolute fact that cocaine and marijuana were criminalized to the tune of racist and patently false statements from officials in the Federal Bureau of Narcotics (the predecessor to the DEA), including its first Commissioner, official literature disseminated by that organization, and various shapers of public opinion. From a newspaper editorial that captures the sentiment of the times: ?Marihuana influences Negroes to look at white people in the eye, step on white men?s shadows and look at a white woman twice.?

    “One only has to drive to their nearest ghetto to see the absolute destruction drugs have brought to a community.”

    Wrong. The ghettos were ghettos long before they had drugs, and will continue to be so even if we eliminated every drug from the planet. It is poor attitudes towards work, the lack of a stable family structure, and dependency on government that make the difference between a white or Jewish kid frittering away a couple of years and his parents’ money on drugs (but not much else harm done), and a black kid’s trajectory due to the same behavior.

    “Dope heads can continue to be dope heads, but they will continue to pay the price for their choices.”

    That will happen regardless of whether there are laws on the books or not. As with any other choice, the world rewards good ones and punishes bad ones: in the case of drug use, there are plenty of real-world constraints on use that make the vast majority of people who have tried drugs either use responsibly or stop using without any force required. The burden of proof is on drug warriors to prove that there is significant societal cost such that we should strain our legal, law enforcement, and prison apparatus to maintain it (as well as blatant violations of our rights as citizens).

  • Doc Holliday

    btw, you might just need someone to take care of you, but don’t try to force your problem on us.

  • Doc Holliday

    but you get so wound up it is hard to take you seriously. Chill man.

  • powertothepeople

    you think yourself clever, but yoo do the poor me victim routine much better.

    But usually I would not say you do moron well, so this is a surprise. Laws that represent the majority have nothing to do with daddy or any other of your ignorant rants, it has to do with what we as a people want. Are you in favor of abortion rights? Speeding down roads with no limits? Underage laws? DUI laws? Laws are what we as a people desire them to be. We do not want drunks on the road, so we set laws. We do not want dope heads running free smoking, snorting, or shooting up, so we enact laws. And when you grow out of the rebellious “daddy” crap or the juvenile ” no one can tell me what to do” nonsense, it will make everything seem much better. Until then, keep getting nonsense arguments from wewanttogethigh.com

    Now since I have little respect for the nonsense Libertarians spew and since it seems you have you head up their collective rears. moving on.

  • Doc Holliday

    You made all these claims about nations like Portugal, The Netherlands etc, and they were all pulled out of your rear. The reality is the Netherlands and Portugal have much lower drug use than do we. Puritans like you make drugs and alcohol enticing to our youth because everything is so forbidden. Did you hear of prohibition? Did you see the result? You think pot is worse than booze?

    This argument is not about drugs, alcohol, or your favorite, sex with animals. This is about one side that trusts men to act in their best interest, and another side that thinks government and jails are the answer to their problems. Ask some druggie who is living in a jail cell if he is better off because of people like you?

    I am not interested in talking with you either, you are just very uninteresting.

    BTW, moderators, this guy admitted he was a retread, probably was banned before.

  • aesthete

    But should not be used by conservatives, as they are not a conservative position at all. Firstly, society =/= government and its laws. Oftentimes, the two are in opposition. Even if it did, the notion that “society”, government, or any other group could stop a behavior (as indicated by this quote: “We do not want drunks on the road, so we set laws. We do not want dope heads running free smoking, snorting, or shooting up, so we enact laws”) is fallacious. As should be clear by the many attempts by democracies to make wealth and its owner part ways, the laws of economics and the real world do not go on hiatus simply because the “will of the people” demands it; they simply find other ways to express themselves than they would in the absence of laws.

    Lastly, the idea that 50%+1 people in any way makes an action correct or moral is repugnant. If 50%+1 people voted to rape you and kill your family, that would be wrong. If 50%+1 people voted to lock you up because you happen to be the wrong skin color, that, too, would be wrong. If 50%+1 people voted to expropriate 100% of your property and sent you to a labor camp because you committed the mortal sin of being a member of the bourgeois, that would also be wrong. No one has a higher claim to your life and property than you do. That doesn’t change because 50%+1 says it does, and has a bloody stick to make it, um, stick.

  • powertothepeople

    the poor victim part with even a huge failure at tattle telling.

    Maybe just like the other guy, you should gain some reading comprehension. Let me copy/paste it for you…

    “And so on and so on. All have decriminalized personal amounts or more of all, and I repeat ALL, drugs, have ALL set up costly tax payer funded rehabs, and have seen little provable lowing in use or crime other than what can be attributed, of course outside of CATO and Arlen Spector, to differences in acceptance, beliefs, lifestyle, and nation status as to wealth etc.”

    See I knew in your haze, you would be unable to resist the whole lower use argument so I beat you to the punch.

    And by all means us puritans should glorify all bad things just so kids “don’t” do it. Boy, you are scraping the bottom of the barrel on that one.

    Ummm , yeah mods thats me. I “admitted” to being a retread. Now you are just a liar, but whatever floats you boat. You love calling for people to be banned don’t you. Pathetic! What a joke you are. Lets see if you post a “bitch” post about me soon then swear everyone is so mean to you especially me then promise to leave forever yet never leave.

    But lets try something, click your heals 3 times, repeat 3 times “he is a retread and I will lie and say he said it,” and see if it all comes true.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It is against the rules to armchair moderate from the comments. Take it to the contact page or your account will bet he one disabled.

  • Doc Holliday

    you have been pushing me for a long time. You have shown no ability to argue your point, and you lied by saying you would drop it. The more you respond, the more the moderators will take notice. I put that in at the end because you pissed me off. I could have put it in the title, and I could have emailed them. Look, I doubt they even care at this point, you are cough “well established here” cough. Just stop pushing me.

    btw, I lied? I can pull up your quote if you want. I would prefer you just drop it and we can ignore each other.

  • Doc Holliday

    we both got heated, but we have agreed before. I should not have mentioned that you had an account before, I was wrong to do that. You were wrong to call me a liar, no one here has ever called me a liar, because I do not lie.

    I don’t want to search for proof because my html search skills suck and I really don’t want to push this or bring it up again, and I won’t. I don’t care if you had a previous account, I mean, who the hell cares. Calling me a liar was a bit tough when you know you told me here,on this site, it is in the record. But again, I regret making the comment and I won’t mention it again.

    I call a truce, let’s just forget this crap and move on,

  • Doc Holliday

    and I will put this out clearly so there is no cloud over me or Power.

    Last year I said I was leaving the site for some reason or another. Power gave me some advice/criticisms.. I had never heard of Power to the People and asked him how he knew my history. He said he had an account before and left it at that.

    My though was “why would someone have a previous account” and forget his screen name? Hence, I wondered if he was a retread, which I think is against site rules.

    I did not armchair moderate Neil, I could not moderate with your skill and would not want to. I stated a fact, one I regret mentioning. Of course I was treated wonderfully.

  • Diogenes314

    First of all, our Founding Fathers gave us a Constitution and Bill of Rights specifically to prevent and limit the abuses of majoritarianism. However, if a particular law is Constitutional and supported by a majority of the electorate, why should their will not prevail?

  • Doc Holliday

    our Constitution was created specifically to counter the idea of “majority rule”. The Founders put in freedoms that are unalienable, they are truths in an of themselves. They are freedoms given to us by our Creator, and no majority of clowns can take them away.

    Now, within the rules of the Constitution,the majority gets to pick its leaders. Within the limits of the Constitution, the majority can and will have its say. But there are limits to the majority, limits given by God, limits that any free man must defend even at the barrel of a gun.

    I said this before but I guess it can not be said too many times. We are not a Democracy, we are a Republic. A Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner. A Republic enshrines that the lamb can not be on the menu, no matter how many wolves vote otherwise.

  • Diogenes314

    Who exactly is arguing for majoritarianism overriding the Constitution? All of Aesthete’s examples would be patently unconstitutional. I specifically asked:

    However, if a particular law is Constitutional and supported by a majority of the electorate, why should their will not prevail?

    And is it your argument that legalization of marijuana would be a Constitutional issue? Based on what?

  • Doc Holliday

    I have lost the flow of the thread so take it easy diogenes. I was critiquing Aesthete’s truisms and you many general comments that majority rule should prevail.

    I don’t think “legalization of marijuana” is discussed in the Constitution, but it was legal, and used, when the Constitution was written. George Washington grew hemp, the Jamestown settlers were required by law to grow cannabis. Marijuana prohibition was finalized in 1930.

    I think that the Constitution leaves these powers to the states. My argument about decriminalization is not based on the Constitution but on reality. We are wasting OUR MONEY, we are wasting our jail cells (that should be full of illegal immigrant criminals) and we should promote freedom when at all possible. No one can tell me why a man can not grow marijuana on his own land for his own use, other than to say it is against the law. They can’t tell me why this should be so, and they who think this is right are up against many great conservative and libertarian thinkers.

    You might think I took you on diogenes, but that is not so, I just responded to a Asthete’s well stated post. I do not always follow threads from top to bottom, you could say it is a fault, but it is how I roll lol.

  • aesthete

    Hopefully, no one read my statements as endorsing military rule or autocracy. However, ultimately the highest order value is liberty, not democratic input. Any system built to preserve freedom for the long haul will have to have democratic input of some sort; no system that seeks to preserve liberty can have the mobocracy prevail in its every whim. The very least we can do is acknowledge that democracy is a “least bad” option, and not squawk like parrots about the wonders of democracy when it deprives people of their rights. (Also note that I was replying to PTTP, who implied that the decisions arrived at by democratic consensus are more legitimate than those arrived at by the individual whose money, time, etc it is in the first place.)

    In the case of majoritarianism as it applies to the government, certainly it is given reign in states (provided that state constitutions are followed). The areas of our lives that the Constitution allows the Congress to legislate on, however, are limited and do not include the regulation of drugs — that is exclusively the province of state governments following the frameworks of their respective constitutions. The WoD, like much of what goes on in DC, is un-Constitutional. I would argue that in the case of the WoD, it is even more blatant because a) there is precedent establishing the need for an amendment in such matters (the 19th and 21 Ams, respectively), and b) because the means used have horribly mangled various portions of the Constitution. Read the Supreme Court rulings over the past 10-20 years as they pertain to states’ rights to allow medical marijuana, 4th Am procedures, and general police issues. You won’t like what you find. I can think of many aspects of case law that will be used to argue that ObamaCare is Constitutional, in fact.

  • Diogenes314
  • jayburd

    Don’t worry, the press will pick another “McCain” for you! Scott Brown for president!

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    It’s his fitness to hold office that is in question.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane
  • jayburd

    You can’t even parse your own bull.

  • Doc Holliday

    how could someone even have strong beliefs if those beliefs changed after every poll? No, this nation is a Republic, based on individual liberty, given by God. That is why patriots give their lives, that is why a man who understands our nation will fight to keep it free.

  • aesthete

    Or maybe you wouldn’t, given the nature of politics today. People don’t see the logical disconnect between seeing every result of unbridled democracy as a Good Thing, and defending liberty. It’s disgusting, really; whenever someone (rightly) notes that the voters are ill-informed buffoons on a given subject, they are chastised as “anti-democratic” or “elitist”. I expect that those people would want us to wave our American flags if ever a majority of Muslims wanted to force us to accept Saud-style laws.

    The smart ones who have thought it through are just using it as a rallying call for those who suffer from logical disconnect. They know that they’re playing with stolen goods on the sufferance of an inattentive public, and that claiming vox populi is a pretty good way to get away with it. It’s even easier with polls; no one knows how to read or interpret them, and anyone with moderate experience at manipulation can make them say what they want. This is much bigger than the drug war, which is merely one of many horrible results of this aberrant thinking. What is just and what the public wants are not the same thing; the more we confuse the two, the more we dilute the concept of justice.

  • powertothepeople

    my comment and as long as you persist in stating I told you I was a retread, I will continue to call you a liar. You can go search all you want, it is not there.

    See Doccy, in order to be a retread, you have to have been banned and reset up an account. I never, NEVER told anyone on this site that much less you. Having an account that went dormant, forgetting the sign in info, resetting up an account is neither being a retread nor is it against rules.

    So shove off. You play these games too much then want to act the pious victim part. No one is fooled here and neither am I. Ignore all you want, I will continue to engage in dialogue and if you are the one who puts down something far out like above, I will put in my two cents. I could care less about your oversensitive sensibilities.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Huckabee could very well win the primary. His problem is that he’s got a level of ethical and moral baggage, combined with a level of hypocrisy, that will rightly bury him under a billion dollars of advertising in the general.

    Huckabee is unfit to hold elective office. I wish him well as an entertainer, he fits right it and I hope he enjoys the cash.

  • Doc Holliday

    yes, for some reason Americans don’t really understand decriminalization. But marijuana is not legal in any European countries, but it is decriminalized. The goal is to release the police from time and money wasting activities, like arresting Willie Nelson, and then telling him he is sentenced to sing a song to the judge. http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2011/03/28/willie-nelson-plead-guilty-sing-court-avoid-jail-time/

    Decriminalization is really a conservative thing, because it more clearly delineates that certain crimes are worse than others. This is the opposite of the liberal cause, which for example wants the law to downplay the threat of crack cocaine for race based motives.

    My view is the states should make their own decisions. And the reality is that several states have already de facto decriminalized possession of small amounts of marijuana. They did so because their populace thinks it is the fair thing to do and because the cops don’t have the time and money to chase down every Iron Maiden fan.

    This is not a major issue to me personally. I just don’t think candidates with different views should be shellacked because they come to conclusions differing from the some other conservatives. No one president is going to legalize or decriminalize marijuana; at most he will simply use the DEA to go after the narco trafficers and not some medical marijuana dispensary.

    In fact, I don’t even support legalization and taxation. I support allowing someone to grow a small amount for personal use and that is it. I don’t see any good in marijuana, but then again, few see any good in my Copenhagen.