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Debt free America: Scott Walker, David Goldman, Rush Limbaugh, and Estonia show it is possible

“Think what you do when you run in debt; you give to another power over your liberty.”  — Benjamin Franklin

Balanced budgets??  I don’t want no stinking balanced budgets!  What a weak, tepid, limp-wristed vision talked about by the people in Washington to maintain the corrupt special-interest jacuzzi they sit in.  I prefer a much bolder mindset and vision.  I want budgets with surpluses to pay down and eliminate the national debt!

The decisive victory of Scott Walker and the remarkable, yet predictable results of his collective bargaining reforms have revealed a very big piece to how this could be possible.   It got me thinking “How much of a percentage of pay do U.S. federal government workers (exempting active military, military veterans, Secret Service, FBI, and CIA) contribute toward their health insurance and retirement plans set up by the government compared to what workers in the private sector have to contribute?”  Notice that I didn’t exempt the president, congressmen or any other federal civilian government workforce.  It’s about time these high-minded officials remember that they are elected public servants, not kings and queens living in royalty.  They can start by having to contributing a portion of their pay to their medical benefits and retirement plan like the rest of the country has to.  The exempted entities deserve not having to contribute anything because that should be a hazard benefit rewarded to them.  For those liberals in Wisconsin who are trying to challenge Walker’s exemption of police and firefighters because of inequality, this is why Walker exempts them and it should be that way.  Okay, so I got off on a tangent there so back to the subject.  I wonder how much of an impact it would have on the U.S. budget if the U.S government workforce paid 10-15% of their annual health insurance premium.  I wonder what impact on the U.S. budget would happen if the entire U.S. government workforce were switched up from pension plans to 401(k) plans like the voters in San Diego did on Tuesday.

Now I am no expert on all the ins and outs of federal benefits but I would have to guess that this could potentially have an enormously positive effect on getting to balance the budget.  This portion of the public sector is HUGE.  When I think of all the ways available to balance the budget, this is a very big component to it.  Of course we can eliminate wasteful programs and subsidies (see Senator Coburn’s “Back in Black” plan), simplify the tax code so everyone pays taxes, no exceptions.  We all know the liberal rhetoric about how the GOP wants to change the tax code to benefit the rich and not the poor is crap.  Taxing the rich at 100% would put hardly a dent in our federal deficit and would destroy the job market altogether and thus the revenue that is needed to fund our government.  The liberal rhetoric is only to further a liberal politician’s political career, nothing more.  We can eliminate deductions that are written to benefit special interests that represent a few and absolve them of any tax liability.  We can enact medical malpractice and tort reform, permit health insurance companies to compete across state lines to drive down medical costs, and thus drive down insurance costs.

I have pondered this problem for some time and a solution of seemingly an impossible debt-free America dream to ensure our financial liberty and sovereignty for future generations is actually taking form.  There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle but the way to get them all put together without having a negative impact on GDP is the trick.  When we talk about cutting the government workforce, we have to remember we are taking away a portion of GDP and tax revenue.  So the trick is how do we thread this delicate economic needle?  Scott Walker and the cities of San Diego and San Jose, California just gave the blueprint on how to do it:

Make all government employees pay a percentage of their annual health insurance costs and convert them from expensive pension to less expensive individual 401(k) plans.

A couple of days ago, I heard Rush Limbaugh cite a piece by David Goldman of Pajamas Media and it is well worth the read.  Some key points made by Limbaugh:

Mr. Goldman points out — and he’s got plenty of charts. He points out that the biggest net takers (and he’s got the chart data to back this up) are not welfare recipients.

The biggest net takers are the municipal unions, federal and state employees.

Now, this dovetails with… I mean, everything they have comes from taxes. It’s not called “welfare.” It’s called their salaries and their pensions and their health care and their benefits package. But every dime of it comes from taxpayers. Government doesn’t produce anything.Every federal worker, every municipal employee, every union in every state, is who Mr. Goldman says are the biggest net takers…

The biggest net takers are municipal unions. The biggest net payers are owners of property. Because it’s much easier to raise property taxes than it is to enact brand-new taxes. You get your property tax bill, what recourse do you have? It goes up; you have no recourse. Even when your property value is falling, your property taxes are going up, are they not?

So, the biggest net takers are municipal unions and the biggest net payers are property owners. Now, fortunately property owners still significantly outnumber municipal union workers. So the tipping point in this way of looking at things is a little down the road. We’re not quite as close to it. And added to this, property owners are ticked off. Their property values are way down, and yet their taxes are way up. And this could be one of the best things that we have going for us that’s not commented on, not reported on.

This could explain, in part, the origins of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party are property owners. Not all of them, but many of them are. Their home values are plummeting. Property taxes are rising. Everybody… I mean, this Wisconsin recall and the whole contretemps over the past two years is focused on this. Now how many people, largely because of this program (ahem), do you think for the first time really understand how municipal employees are paid? And how many people, for the first time, understand they’re earning more than the people who are paying them?

That whole transcript by Limbaugh on Goldman’s piece is right on target.  Read the entire transcript and you’ll figure out just what we have been letting the public sector unions get away with our tax dollars.  But it highlights the crux of our exploding deficits:

Once the takers (government employees/public sector) are rewarded more than the producers, our liberty and the life of our country is in mortal danger.

Social Security and Medicare?  Yeah, those entitlements are the main drivers of the expense column of our nation’s balance sheet.  Personally, the reforms necessary for those programs are difficult since every one starts paying a portion of their wages into them when they become a W-2 employee.  But the management of those contributions (a.k.a. privitization) should be delegated to the contributing citizen, not a government bureaucracy.  Seriously, if the federal government was your financial and benefits manager and you saw how they manage their own finances, you would fire them and move on.  That will be the topic of another post.

MYTH:  Austerity doesn’t work

FACT:  Austerity does work for a resolute, determined people who keeps the end result in mind.  It doesn’t work for a people that is weak, quits, and elects politicians/parties that got them in the mess in the first place, exacerbating and prolonging the misery they are currently in.

Case in point, the country of Estonia:

Sixteen months after it joined the struggling currency bloc, Estonia is booming. The economy grew 7.6 percent last year, five times the euro-zone average.

Estonia is the only euro-zone country with a budget surplus. National debt is just 6 percent of GDP, compared to 81 percent in virtuous Germany, or 165 percent in Greece…

Estonia’s achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that it was one of the countries hardest hit by the global financial crisis. In 2008-2009, its economy shrank by 18 percent. That’s a bigger contraction than Greece has suffered over the past five years…

While spending cuts have triggered strikes, social unrest and the toppling of governments in countries from Ireland to Greece, Estonians have endured some of the harshest austerity measures with barely a murmur. They even re-elected the politicians that imposed them.

And for pure entertainment, Estonia’s president lights up Paul Krugman like a roman candle.

Thread the economic needle by having all non-exempt federal workers pay toward their benefit plan, use austerity by means of spending cuts on programs to get the budget in balance/surplus, and engage in pro-growth policy to get the economic engine roaring to life and use the massive surpluses generated from the exploding revenue to pay off the national debt in a hurry.  How about it?  Gets me excited just thinking about it.

Debt-free, prosperous, strong America in reach?  Absolutely!  So long as the people of this nation work their tail off and have the resolve to make it happen through a pro-growth, reduced spending, less invasive government and it is so simple.

In closing, you all know how rough I was in my criticism of Mitt Romney and his many changes in political conviction in the past.  But the one thing I see consistent in him is with how he manages his personal finances, how much he gives, and how disciplined he is.  Given the way he lives and his experience in the private sector, he is wonderfully qualified to take on this country’s economic challenges than him at this point in our nation’s history.

Debt-free America.  What a great vision for Mitt Romney to inspire the American people with.

COMMENTS

  • bbjaylive

    That a debt free America is desirable. It is absolutely NOT desireable. You should not be chasing balanced budgets and the federal level, at this time especially and you definitely should NOT be striving for budget surpluses.

    At the state level a budget surplus is desirable because apart from bonds and taxes, a state has no other way to fund itself. Since the federal government issues it own currency though, the national debt it is accumulating is down in large part to the amount of money it spends or “prints”. If you have a budget surplus at the federal level, it just means that either the government hasn’t spent enough, or more likely, it’s overtaxed its citizens, which has a deflationary effect. You should really only be looking to cut spending once there is fully employment and the debt just needs to be managed, not paid off in full. You won’t be leaving a mountain of debt for the next generation, because you can’t send any of the current goods into the future.

    • lineholder

      strive to live within our economic means more than we do. Absolutely. I’m not even going to try to get into the inflationary versus deflationary arguments…not my strongest point.

      When it comes to our entitlement programs…within 5 years we will have 3 major entitlement programs associated with health care, not just one. We will have Medicare, Medicaid, and O-care itself (if it stands) Health care consumed 18% of our GDP last year. It is projected to consume 25% of our GDP within five years. We had 10% of the working population employed in the health care and health care-related industries last year. That number is increasing. Health care is going to present a MAJOR challenge!

      I’m a “limited government, lower taxes” person anyway, but I think “threading the needle” is an accurate description of what we’re going to be up against. We’ll have to make what cuts we can so that our debt doesn’t rise too quickly and steamroller the private sector (as a source of tax revenues) into complete and total oblivion.

      I’ve definitely been impressed with what Estonia (along with two other Baltic nations) have succeeded in doing.

      • lineholder

        @

    • tnfriendofcoal101368

      If you are going to quote Paul Krugman, you ought to give him credit. I mean you know Kruggie doesn’t really believe this, right? That he is really a free market economist and his Nobel is for his work in New Trade Theory? Kruggie is like Nicholas Cage, once at the top of his field, he realized it didn’t pay well so he started a new career peddling crap.

      • bbjaylive

        This is basic macroeconomic theory. This isn’t leftist or liberal or whatever. Why do you think Paul’s economic policy was so dangerous? Not only was his monetary policy outdated, but his fiscal policy was ridiculous. He wanted to absolutely decimate government spending. Government spending is a part of GDP, that is a fact (unless you calculate GDP the Rothbardian way).

        • tnfriendofcoal101368

          is it? Krugman’s basic theory of the month is we are in a massive deleveraging cycle (i.e. both the private and public sector are trying to get out of debt). That because of this we are caught in a trap and that the Government should spend more to create jobs to make up for the Private sector lack of spending. This is the basic point you were making that Government spending should be increased at this time not decreased. End of Krugman here. Government as a part of GDP is always a zero sum game because the government does not produce anything, increases in Government spending is paid for by either 1) Taxing which removes money from the private sector 2) borrowing which you obviously do prefer (so does Krugman for what it matters) – 3) devaluing currency – in another thread you made a joke about Governments “printing money” except to do so weakens the currency value, increases the amount needed to purchase goods and thus removes capital. I am of the opinion the Government should strive to meet it’s obligations, leave as much capital as necessary in the private sector and gain through real growth.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            Austrian economics is in the monetary policy. While above I do argue that inflationary monetary policy is essentially a hidden tax that removes capital from the private sector, Paulian monetary policy also removes capital by holding it to a standard and not fiat money. Deflation = destruction of wealth (since all of our wealth is in dollars whether we like it or not).

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            Austrians believe, well, at least not most Austrians now in days.

            I have not seen many economists going for a full gold standard anymore, although there are a few.

            There has been much convergence among the Chicago school and the Austrian school . The Austrians have learned that monetary policy is very important. and the Monetarists have learned that monetary policy isn’t everything.

          • bbjaylive

            Is it or is it not the case that the private sector is paying off debt, not hiring and sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars cash?

            Second, taxes DO NOT fund the government. The US has been printing money for ages and the dollar is stable. You’re only devaluing the currency when the US is running at full output, which it ISN’T.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            earlier when I said you were a Krugman New Keynsian because you are? The reason companies are sitting on this pile of money is they have no confidence in the Government not trying to tax them beyond reason. Mellon was correct when he said that when you overtax, people look for ways to avoid taxes and remove capital from the system. Taxes most certainly today do not fund the government, debt does which has made problem above worse. Taxes should fund the government which is why Government spending has to be rained in so that business will stop sitting on their piles of money and actually put that capital to use to create growth. Where the new Keynsian’s miss it is that government growth over the long term can not create wealth growth because the government takes from the private sector to grow (a zero sum cycle) while private sector does produce, can grow organically and increase government revenue as well due to growth. The government has been altering the money supply ever since George Washington was President, the dollars stability is based on the faith of investors in the USA (because it is fiat money). I would note increasing debt to outrageous levels would affect that confidence. It’s value however does fluctuate on supply and this does affect people adversely when they buy goods which has nothing to do with stability.

          • bbjaylive

            They take money out of the economy to cool inflation.

            On overtaxation, the Bush tax cuts have been extended, and payroll tax has been cut, so where exactly is this overtaxation? Are you talking about Obamacare?

            You’re still thinking that the US is on a gold-standard.

            Finally, I AM NOT a New Keynesian. Stop throwing out baseless accusations.

          • acat

            Inquiring taxpayers want to know what we’re paying for, y’see.

            Mew

          • bbjaylive

            The purpose of taxes to the federal government is NOT the same as its purpose for the state government.

            At the state level, it funds the government. At the federal level, it is basically “destroyed”/vanishes/”unprinted”.

          • acat

            By that theory, government contractors are paid in unicorn dust, which they pass onto their employees ….

            No, it ain’t gold-backed, but as long as I can exchange “my” unicorn dust for cat litter and cheeseburgers … it seems to have an agreed-upon value.

            Mew

          • bbjaylive

            It’s basic accounting.

          • acat

            I see I’ve gotten out of date in yet another discipline.

            Mew

          • lineholder

            Being just a tad sarcastic…but MMT definitely explains why so many economists have the attitude that “it’s the government’s money”.

          • acat

            Which means all economists are really just fiction writers … and all fiction writers are liars .. and suddenly things are very, very clear.

            Mew

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            after all we “owe it to ourselves” (and the Chinese)

          • acat

            The average Greek has converted as much as possible into either cash (Euros, which will still spend outside Greece) or items that have inherent value (aunt Millie’s tea service) that can be sold once they actually have a non-caretaker government in place and can decide whether they want to re-launch the Drachma or do austerity.

            Mew

          • aesthete

            still uses pre-Euro drachmas, in fact.

          • lineholder

            As far as the taxes go, it doesn’t make a bit of difference whether the funds are allocated prospectively or respectively. Taxes are still used to generate revenues for public funds that the government spends. That’s reality as we know it.

            And as far as the private sector is concerned, they couldn’t care less what methodology is utilized in spending those funds. The primary focus of the private sector is on supply-and-demand. If demand doesn’t exist, they aren’t in the least bit likely to try to generate jobs just for the heck of it.

            The private sector has a MUCH greater potential for job creation than the public sector does, and given where things stand with our economy right now, the private sector should be the FIRST priority.

            Is it really that difficult for people to understand that?

          • bbjaylive

            It’s the same kind of reality in which the Sun revolved around the Earth. At the federal level, taxes aren’t used to finance the government.

          • lineholder

            If taxes are considered to be revenues at a federal level…then why argue for an increase in taxes?

          • lineholder

            [

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            because I do give up and go back to agree to disagree….if what you say is true that government is not funded by taxes, then would it not be the right policy in a debt crunch in the private sector to return all taxes to the private sector, allowing for more private sector spending while maintaining deficit spending on public sector side?

          • bbjaylive

            Those taxes are taking money out of the economy.

          • lineholder

            Social Security and Medicare? Oh…sorry, I forgot…taxes do not fund government on a federal level.

            Wherever those social programs get their funding from….they’re almost bankrupt, so continuing to decrease revenues into those funds needs to be weighed carefully against long-term outcomes.

          • lineholder

            If MMT proponents hold to the principles you’ve espoused here, what is the viewpoint on rule of law and mechanisms used within our legal structure as a means of taxing people?

          • bbjaylive

            The government is just handing out cheques. The only problem is an inflationary risk where there isn’t enough supply of real assets (clothes, food, housing) and services.

          • lineholder

            How much do know about how the health care industry operates, bbjaylive?

          • bbjaylive

            …to two weeks of obsessively looking at numerous MMT blogs, so I don’t really know what would happen with Medicare (although one proponent has suggested giving it to everybody, yeah like that would happen). Maybe I’ll do a diary on MMT/Chartalism in the future so I can better explain it in my own words.

          • lineholder

            you study the private sector side of it as well.

            For example, did you know that Medicare payments to physicians are running two years in the rears? They get paid this year for services they provided two years ago.

            We’re talking about businesses that have to maintain a funding balance (or within reasonable limits) in order to survive.

            It isn’t all about the government spending side, bbjaylive. It seems that you’ve been led to believe that it is, but it isn’t.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            I have been struggling with macroeconomics as a hobby and thought exercise since I was 20 years old (mid 40′s now) and you went toe to toe.

          • acat

            Are you sure you’re not just applying Zeno’s Paradox to economics?

            Mew

            p.s. Zeno’s Advent Calendar:

          • lineholder

            All I’m seeing at this point is a blatant disconnect of the hard cold reality in the private sector.

            Off to work now.

          • bbjaylive

            “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.”

          • acat

            among other things, the COLAs that require the printing presses to spin ever faster as the dollars devalue.

            In short, your theory is addressing the wrong problem, or perhaps too narrow a part of the problem.

            Mew

          • acat

            You’re simply addressing the wrong problem. It’s not the supply, although increasing it will devalue the individual dollars.

            The reason for the lack of demand is the excessive and capricious regulatory environment.

            Fix that, make government’s role in business smaller and(/or) more predictable, and demand will spike nicely.

            Until that happens, we’re just re-proving Japan’s lost decade.

            Mew

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            How does “the dollars stability is based on the faith of investors in the USA (because it is fiat money)” jive with “You?re still thinking that the US is on a gold-standard.”. Ok enough with that, you are argue “overtaxation” doesn’t occur, you argue increase in government spending, you are argue we are in a deleveraging cycle, dude…you’re a New Keynsian. It doesn’t make you a bad person, in my opinion it makes you wrong. I am a monetarist, I believe the inflation is manipulated by the monetary supply, you think I am wrong. We will have to disagree.

          • bbjaylive

            when there is NO reason to fear it. I’ve just told you that the Bush tax cuts have been extended and payroll tax has been cut. You’ve just demagogued me and accused me of arguing for increasing government spending (which I have not) and calling me a Keynesian.

            You believe that the inflation is manipulated by the money supply, have you got any data to back that up?

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            The inflation question was a loaded question. CPI is currently balancing a tug between home and wages which are currently stagnating or deflating and commodity prices for food and fuel which are inflating. My concern remains that QE was seen as a way to add liquidity to the system and the only thing that has occured is commodities have gone up.

          • acat

            That’s basic economics… right at the level of supply and demand.

            Supply of dollars goes up, relative value of each dollar decreases.

            Mew

          • bbjaylive

            Increasing the supply does not cause inflation if the demand increases proportionately.

          • lineholder

            be the demand source that responds to any increase in supply for the purpose of preventing inflation.

            bbjaylive, valid theory or not, it doesn’t mean diddly-squat to the private sector. In the private sector, demands leads supply not lags behind it.

          • lineholder

            /

          • acat

            for increasing demand in an environment with excess uncertainty….

            In short, our government have been increasing the supply and whistling past the graveyard hoping the demand will appear.

            Do you, or do you not, have a problem with this?

            Mew

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            and I apologize, you are of the MMT theory. My eyes open, now you see a deficit as the government has deposited money into accounts more than it has removed by taxation and conversely a surplus is the opposite the government has deposited less into the private sector than it has removed due to taxation. I am not a fan of MMT but I do apologize for earlier statements.

          • trimulchio

            world. We have state and property taxxes in some places that are confiscatory. How are we not “overtaxed?”

            High marginal tax rates in the Carter years did wonders to “cool inflation.”

          • aesthete

            and yes, I’m aware that many economics professors at an advanced level explain it that way. What you are really trying to say is that government has a series of trade-offs utilizing monetary policy (at cost of inflation) and tax policy in exchange for having a larger government. Colloquially, it is fine (if a tad inaccurate) to say that government is paid for using taxes and the proverbial printing press. I would rather have monetary policy decoupled from straight funding of government to focus on inflation targets, and concentrate on lowering our spending so that we don’t have to raise taxes in response to the inflationary aspects which are required when a government undertakes expansionary monetary policy.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            The Government is paid for by debt as well….but you did put it smoother than I did.

          • lineholder

            I thought that was the basic purpose of taxes…to fund the government.

            If it isn’t, then why are we taxes? Where does the government get the money it spends? And why does the left want to increase taxes to use for public policy spending?

          • bbjaylive

            The government spends by just “printing money” i.e. crediting people’s bank accounts. Do you ever ask the person operating the scoreboard where they got the points from when they increase the score for each team? Of course not.

            For further explanation, listen to this 12 minute clip of Peter Schiff interviewing Warren Mosler, a proponent of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory):

            http://fetch.noxsolutions.com/schiff/audio/WarrenMosler_111711.mp3

            Also look at this youtube video:

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_DO0SpiYyY&feature=relmfu

          • streiff

            the reason the dollar has value is because it is the only acceptable method of paying your taxes.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            The Saudi’s don’t pay taxes in dollars, neither do the Chinese. The dollar has value because investors have faith that the US will never default it’s obligations. A proponent of MMT (bbjaylive) would say as a maker of it’s own currency the US could not possibly default its obligations. I would point out that Moser had the same thoughts on Russia and Italy and he lost his shirt on both bets.

          • aesthete

            Chartalism in its weaker form is right on the ball, and it presents a fairly useful framework for examining some aspects of monetary policy — but goes full retard as a descriptive economic theory once you move to the foreign sector (exports are a cost to us!!!!) and situations of extreme inflation. Sorry, chartalists, but hyperinflation does exist and it sucks.

          • acat

            Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

            The right move is to go lean and see what happens.

            At what point does this become something the government “must fix” ?

            Mew

          • trimulchio

            in a debt crisis. You can’t salvage a debt crisis with more debt, that was why the “Re-fi Economy collapsed.

            The not hiring and the “capital strike” has much more to do with regulatory uncertainty than with paying down debt. There is (or had been) demand: that is where the cash came from.

        • lineholder

          What macroeconomic theory do you see as most appropriate to apply in the situation our nation is facing?

          Why do you believe it to be most appropriate?

        • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

          It is that fact which makes GDP, IMO, a fairly meaningless statistic.

          It is not an accurate measurement of the health or growth of an economy.

        • trimulchio

          anti-productive. You generally want markets, rather than the political process, to allocate capital.

    • trimulchio

      Going into debt to meet current budget demonstrates lack of planning and budgeting.

      Going into debt to deal to make the Louisiana Purchase or acquire Alaska or to deal with National Security threats (fight WWII, for example) or improve infrastructure (build out the interstate highway system) make sense and are needed at times.

      • bbjaylive

        The government spends the money first, then they collect taxes. All taxes are for is to take money out of the economy to curb inflation. It doesn’t fund the government. Why would it? It already came from the government anyway.

        • trimulchio

          You can continue to do that as long as anyone takes your money. So far, so good . . . .

          • bbjaylive

            Zimbabwe got hyperinflation because they were completely incompetent and corrupt. High inflation is only something one should worry about when you’ve got low unemployment.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            “Zimbabwe got hyperinflation because they were completely incompetent and corrupt.”

            So the Obama administration is not?

          • trimulchio

            the fact ypu have high unemployment (and employers who are willing to hold the line on wage increases) is why you have some level of control over inflation.

            In the 1970s we managed both high unemployment and rampant inflation. Wages were increased based on the cost of living, not productivity. It was pretty quickly a self-licking ice cream cone.

    • aesthete

      We don’t want completely balanced budgets or surpluses, but a small, manageable debt is a good thing which makes your country or region attractive to investors.

      Also, good luck figuring out when there is “full employment” in a macroeconomy as large and complex as the US.

      • trimulchio

        enter the calculus for the Fed.

      • bbjaylive

        …and after the debt ceiling debacle, people flocked into Treasuries because the “crisis” was a phoney one. As Greenspan said, the US will never fail to make a payment, because they can just print the money.

        Full employment would be 5% or less I guess.

        • aesthete

          with long-term consequences and you don’t want to half-*ss monetary policy. Monetary policy ain’t fishing with dynamite, where you can say, “close enough” and reap dividends; screwing up monetary policy either through deflation or politically-motivated high inflation is poorly done, and the Fed should be allowed to focus on inflation targets without worrying how it affects government debt or employment.

        • trimulchio

          bigger question.

          • bbjaylive

            The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Countries around the world know that the US is a huge consumer of goods and want to trade goods to the US.

        • trimulchio

          Euro-denominated investments. Best of a bad lot isn’t a good hand to bluff with.

          • bbjaylive

            The Euro is a disaster because all the countries in it are a currency users, where as the US is a currency issuer. HUGE difference.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            In what meaningful way are we different than the western Europeans?

            What do you mean by being a currency user or a currency issuer?

            We print money, they print money. We have huge deficits, they have huge deficits, we have an under-performing economy, they have an under-preforming economy, we have unfunded liabilities that we can never pay, they have unfunded liabilities that they can never pay.

            The only difference I see is that like Trim said, we simple are perceived as not sucking as much as everyone else.

          • bbjaylive

            Can Greece print its own money, can Spain, can Ireland, can Italy, Portugal?

            These nations are basically the equivalent of California and Texas. They are just states that make up the federal United States of Europe. All they can do is borrow and tax. They don’t have ANY control over monetary policy. They can’t issue their own currency (THAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN ALL OF THIS) .

            What’s even worse is that Germany is the one that basically controls the ECB, and since Weimar is ingrained into the German mindset, their fiscal policy is too tight.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            That the Euros, because they share a currency cannot easily inflate it, but we can inflate ours, so that somehow makes us a better choice for investors?

            It actually makes us a crappier choice for investors, there are other reasons why we still have a strong currency.

          • bbjaylive

            Also, you’re going to have to walk me through the logic of how not easily inflating the Euro makes it a better choice for investors. That makes absolutely no sense.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            You think that government spending is somehow helpful for achieving economic growth, whereas the opposite is true. and you also do not see that the ability to inflate your economy (never mind that inflation is low right now) makes for a higher risk to investors.

            I don’t think I can really help you with your problems. You need to unlearn everything you have apparently learned.

          • trimulchio

            I use good money (money that buys more) to buy money that buys less and which other people are less likely to accept.

          • acat

            repudiate the Euro, print up their own national currency, and artificially peg it to whatever they want.

            This would be economically very painful, but .. say it with me .. They. Could. Do. It.

            The EuroZone is *not* like the U.S.A. in two major ways. First, they haven’t been at it that long,, they don’t have 200+ years of a common currency, they barely have 20. Second, they haven’t – and this is the key #Fail in the EuroZone and why England wisely stayed out – got near enough a unified culture.

            Greeks retire significantly before Germans, work significantly fewer hours than Germans, and a startlingly lower percentage of Greeks pay taxes than Germans. So long as that remains true, a common currency isn’t going to work. Period.

            Your comparison is inaccurate.

            Mew

          • bbjaylive

            My question was rhetorical in response to kyle8′s wrong assertion that there was no difference between the US and Greece.

          • aesthete

            but the fundamentals are similar: if Greece had control of its own monetary policy, things would be better in some ways (esp for the rest of the Eurozone), but “spend and inflate” has weaknesses that you’re not giving enough credence to. There are some problems that monetary policy cannot alleviate, and in attempting to fix them through inflation it can exacerbate or even create structural impediments to growth.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            is acat is saying the PIIGS could withdraw from the EU and print their own money, but if they do they would be in deep litter box because they would be printing a currency no one would take and it would force default or hyperinflation while you are saying this is exactly what the PIIGS should do because in becoming currency issuers they could resolve their issues by printing currency. I will point Moser lost his shirt (about 850 million dollars) making the same bet over Russia when the Russians did indeed default in 1998.

          • acat

            California can’t print script and give it to the state employees.

            Greece can print drachmas, seize the euros in the banks and do a forced conversion, etc. etc.

            Apples and crabapples, bbjaylive … not the same underneath.

            Mew

          • trimulchio

            supply because of that “world reserve currency” thing. For example, you need dollars to buy oil, hence you need dollars.

            If the dollar buys less, you use something else. You can “dump” dollars by buying things here or you can just use them to buy another currency or maybe gold. Either way, the dollars come “home” and the money supply goes up and the money velocity goes down.

            The Dollar has more value than other fiat currency because you can buy oil with it. Once you can’t do that, it is no more valuble than any other fiat money, when the music may be stopping on the economic and political dispensation that under girds a fiat money system.

            I disagree with Paulists, because they think that hard money can’t be de-based, but it was all the time. However, ANY money is only as good as the number of people who take it. That is always subject to change and at this point particularly so.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            we are in a world wide slump and there is actually deflation going on.

            Don’t get me wrong. I don’t have a big problem with things like QE2 in the current circumstances. I also don’t see them doing a whole lot of good.

            My prediction is that things will change quickly and completely if we get a change in both the presidency and the Senate.

            NOT that I think the Republicans will always do the best thing, or the right thing, or even the necessary things. But they surely will stop the incredible anti-business policies coming out of DC.

            And when that happens there will be a whole lot of pent up demand, and a lot of plans go forth which were put on hold because of Regime uncertainty.

          • trimulchio

            more you inflate, the more concievable it is that you are just going to let the presses roll and wipe out your debt. Argentina had a very strong economy until the first time it did that.

      • RealQuiet

        Government issued debt isn’t exactly an investment vehicle that yields a return on investment that would attract investors like private sector companies would. Plus, private sector companies generate jobs and stimulate positive economic activity with investor dollars.

        I would have to imagine in theory, if the national debt was paid off there would be no more interest payments as a percentage of GDP, tax rates could be cut even further upon corporations and the individual, and we could stockpile surplus for a rainy day like war, domestic disaster, and complimentary unemployment. I realize there has to be a terminal low as far as the tax rate is concerned. The thing is we will be a country of complete liberty, not beholden to any nation for debt. The only time deficits should ever be run is for when there are calamities that need to be addressed and usually could be paid off in short order.

        Preferably, I like to practically apply common sense to economics and keep it simple. Economics in its advanced subjects is like computer programming languages. Great stuff from everyone in here though. Its definitely fun and enlightening reading so many viewpoints and contributions.

        • aesthete

          that we pay off regularly so that we’re seen as a good investment in case of a major war or catastrophe which requires government to temporarily expand and contract debt. That way we get favorable terms and establish relationships with creditors.

          Before he went completely bonkers, Paul Krugman said in one of his books (Peddling Prosperity, I believe) that macroeconomics today is at the same point that medicine was in the 19th century: we know how not to kill the patient, but we don’t know how to cure him. That sounds about right to me.

          • acat

            We could do “true Keynesian” stuff… because the underlying assumptions of Keynes’ deficit-spend-out-of recession bit include (a) starting with low or no debt and (b) retiring the acquired debt rapidly once the recession ends.

            Hasn’t been a true Keynesian since before Nixon, by that measure.

            Mew

          • aesthete

            I think Keynesians have better and more rigorous models than their counterparts.

            I just don’t trust any government institution to do government stimulus quickly and correctly (both of which would be required, and both of which are rare for government).

          • acat

            The Global Warming folks have better and more rigorous models than their counterparts too ….

            Models are great, so long as one remembers they’re not reality.

            Don’t go off the deep end, ‘kay?

            Mew

          • lineholder

            Will all these different economic models that appear to be in use…it’s no wonder that so little gets done to resolve the problems our nation is facing right now. I’m no economist, but what I would say so far is that no model is perfect and the theories do not always apply well in the context of reality.

            I do have a question, though. It seems to me that these theories and/or models that emphasize government spending open the door for a top-down management of our economy. Worst case scenario that I can think of right off hand would be the top-down centralized planning economic management style that literally crippled Russia’s economy.

            Maybe I’m way out in left field somewhere on this, but I don’t see an economic policy that leans on and relies heavily on government spending as a kind of policy that would be highly effective and successful in our country, unless we simply do away with the Constitution, move to a more rigid form of government, and have the federal government dictate economic policy to the states.

            Am I evaluating that correctly?

          • aesthete

            What’s more, I’d say that government policy tends to be ineffective because policymakers don’t have the right data or incentives to make good policy decisions. That’s why it’s better to leave as many economic decisions in the hands of the people (who are closer to the problems and responsible for successes and failures) rather than bureaucrats.

            Put another way, the debate between macroeconomists is somewhat like arguing whether in principle brain surgery can be successful: whatever position you agree with, I’m not sure you want to have a team of chimpanzees in lab coats performing the procedure. Let me tell you, I have a lot more respect for the policymaking abilities of chimpanzees than I do for the average members of congress.

          • bbjaylive

            …who use nonsensical terms like “Imperial America” and “trickle-down economics has sucked wealth from the bottom to the top” and “we, the 99%, are under the tyranny of the 1%”, but MMT is essentially apolitical because MMT describes the monetary operations for any size of government, and says for any size of government, there is an optimal rate of spending and taxation that a nation can run on maximum output.

          • acat

            Let me sum up.

            1) You asserted social security can’t go broke, citing Greenspan’s old saw that we can just print more dollars to pay for it, but you ignored that the built-in COLAs will accelerate the speed we need to print at .. causing a feedback loop. Clearly, Greenspan applies to fixed debt, not flexible debt, so does not apply. Got another way to keep it solvent?

            2) The quibbling matter of your false assertion that the Greeks can’t re-launch the Drachma. Of course they can, they haven’t signed away their sovereignty the way Texas and California did. What is currently keeping Greece in the EuroZone is different from what keeps Texas in the .. DollarZone. This is a quibble, but it demonstrates a rather important non-understanding of what’s going on in Europe.

            3) Japan’s “lost decade” proved that there is no mechanism to create demand for “cheap money”. They had interest rates down around zero and nobody wanted to borrow because of various ongoing uncertainties. That’s the root cause of our problems, and while you’ve identified a part of it – private sector sitting on ca$h, not investing – you haven’t identified a fix any more than a decade of Japanese economics majors could.

            I’d strongly suggest that, rather than labeling yourself an MMTer, you try to get a better look at the elephant. MMT appears to describe the tusks, or maybe the trunk … but not the whole beast.

            Mew

          • bbjaylive

            although you’re kind of right though, I’m less of a proponent of MMT, and more of an avid learner of it who hasn’t had a grasp of practical empirical situations juist yet.

          • aesthete

            What I meant by that is that I do think that some of the Keynesian models do tend to fit some of the data better than their counterparts. It’s more of a wonkish distinction than anything else, and I will admit that my background in microecon both makes me much more suspicious of economic theorem that depart significantly from microecon (i.e., Keynesianism) and also leave me in ignorance of macro as opposed to microecon.

            You’re right though: getting too deep in the weeds with models can be hazardous when it comes to seeing the big picture and the real world, though to my knowledge there’s nothing close to the violations of academic integrity in macroecon that you find with ClimateGate and such.

          • acat

            Krugman.

            Mew

          • aesthete

            Those come packaged in all ideologies, I’m afraid.

    • trimulchio

      Amity Schaeles, The Forgotten Man; and Tom Woods, Jr., Meltdown.

      It appears the Forgotten Men are Warren Harding; David Houston and Andrew Mellon.

      • RealQuiet

        ;)

  • trimulchio

    “Mellon became unpopular with the onset of the Great Depression. He advised President Herbert Hoover to ‘liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate? it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.’[7] Additionally, he advocated weeding out ‘weak’ banks as a harsh but necessary prerequisite to the recovery of the banking system. This ‘weeding out’ was accomplished through refusing to lend cash to banks (taking loans and other investments as collateral), and by refusing to put more cash in circulation. He advocated spending cuts to keep the federal budget balanced, and opposed fiscal stimulus measures. In 1929?31, he spent much of the time overseas, negotiating for repayment of European war debts from World War I.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_W._Mellon

    In 1920, Mellon’s formula (with non-interventionist President Harding) led to a rapid recover. Mellon’s policy after 1929 was blocked by the interventionist Hoover.

  • trimulchio

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-solution-collapse

    The USSR basiclly failed when enough people stopped complying. So did Rome. So will we. What “can’t go on,” at some point, WON’T.

  • Viet71

    My take:

    – Inflation is relatively tame because of China, the housing market, and unemployment…simple supply and demand economics.

    – Inflation will stay relatively tame for the same reasons.

    – Americans spend cash, not the money Uncle Ben controls.

    • acat

      Pundits are idiots .. or cagey business people.

      Inflation is clearly happening. Using a ridiculously simple metric – the McDonald’s Big Mac – prices are rising faster than wages, i.e. we’re into stag-flation again.

      Hyperinflation is .. unlikely, but possible. Inflation will continue to outstrip wages until demand increases.

      Mew

      • Viet71

        My daughter’s education costs tell me so. But there’s not the hyper-inflation the pundit sheep predicted. And there won’t be, from what I see.

        Inflation > wage increases because of foreign labor competition, obviously.

        I’ll take a little inflation over deflation. I don’t worry any longer about Uncle Ben; he knows what he’s doing. I’ll skip the Big Mac.

        Hope all’s on the up-trend in Illinois.

        • acat

          Things won’t look “sunny” around here until we either screw over the retirees or screw over the remaining taxpayers … I suppose there’s a chance we could screw over the grasshoppers, but that never seems to really happen.

          The pundits calling for hyperinflation are looking at how an ounce of gold went from $250 to $1500 over a very short period of time – i.e. there was hyperinflation in gold…. if one ignores how long gold was stuck at $250.

          ‘s why I say hyperinflation is possible, but I think we’re going to be stuck with plain old stag-flation for a while.

          Mew

    • aesthete

      We “only” have ~60-80% debt:GDP ratio, and we’re a major reserve currency. That ratio would have to get much higher (most likely > 150%) for hyperinflation to become a real possibility. That said, higher inflation than is good for the economy or a repeat of stagflation are imminent possibilities on the horizon, and cannot be avoided by sapping more of the US economy’s strength.

      Milt Friedman always said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena — I like to say that hyperinflation is always and everywhere a political phenomena. It is a decision and statement that the currency issuing sovereign has decided not to deal with their longstanding problems with credibility and repayment, and that they have decided to turn their own currency into monopoly money to pretend that they have no debts.

      • Viet71

        I’m long on the U.S.

        • aesthete

          than people give it credit for: Reagan and Volcker did it in the 80s, but it caused a recession.

          I’m also long on the US, but we start running out of good options if we don’t pursue spending reform soon.

        • acat

          “Decrease the money supply”? Yes, but that increases the cost of borrowing, IIRC…..

          Everything is trade-offs… and worse, it’s trade-offs in a funhouse hall of mirrors, because we have no idea what the rest of the world is going to do …

          Mew

          • Viet71

            Yes, it raises borrowing costs. Better some short-term pain than long-term suffering. Not an issue now.

      • trimulchio

        At a certain point, people realize it is “about nothing.” Hope you avoid that point . . . .

  • RealQuiet

    Nothing like a good debate when a bold idea is thrown out there. Economics is one of those few subjects that are infinite in their knowledge base. I’m going to try to reply to some of the comments I have seen on this thread.

  • Dave_A

    The US has been ‘debt free’ ONCE in our history – and it was a very, very bad time for us economically – Andrew Jackson’s presidency.

    While I’m going to disagree with bbjay on any link between national debt & the money supply – and the use of the money supply to finance government…

    I am also going to disagree with the original poster…

    Paying off our national debt is a TERRIBLE idea, that would consume vast amounts of money (eg, require higher taxes) for no economic benefit.

    What we need to do, is reduce it’s growth below the rate of economic growth (GDP growth), to improve our debt:income ratio over time.

    A larger economy, with the resulting larger money supply, makes the national debt less and less significant if the growth of the debt is below the growth of the economy…

    It’s like how ‘big’ a 150k mortgage seems at $32k/yr, vs 100k/yr…

    • RealQuiet

      You assume that paying off the debt this would last forever. So you’re saying Estonia has gotten it wrong? Sure, there has to be some pain to go through like they did but look what their economy is doing right now since they stuck with it. The long term benefits of paying off or nearly paying off all our debt would be enormous. It would make the dollar’s purchasing power that much stronger for one thing. We’ve just pushed past 100% GDP recently and are getting ourselves into danger territory. When you have the Fed printing money to service our deficits and debt, that is clearly a pre-cursor to hyperinflation. I do like your idea of paying it off over a longer stretch though. However even with that people are not going to vote GOP every time in election cycles and Dems are going to want to go spend crazy again.

      • Dave_A

        We’ve pushed past 100% GDP, but GDP grows.

        If we stop GROWING the debt faster than GDP, we will, over time, move back into the safety zone…

        As for the Fed, it’s impossible for them to cause hyperinflation. Hyperinflation has NEVER been caused by a bank ‘printing’ or a country spending – the ONLY way to cause that, is to have a government do something politically that makes it impossible for the economy to create wealth (Zimbabwe’s farm-land siezure, or Germany losing WWI are the easiest examples)….

        The fact is, that the US economy cannot support paying down the debt now or any time in the near future. It would actually hurt the economy to try.

        HOWEVER it is CRITICAL that we STOP THE DEBT FROM GROWING FASTER THAN GDP

        And at NO TIME should we move to ‘strong dollar’ monetary policy. That is ALSO something that our population (which does not save) cannot handle economically.

        A strong dollar = lower wages, more bankruptcies, less INDIVIDUAL and BUSINESS spending… It’s not a good thing…

    • acat

      Yes, a 150k mortgage seems better at 100k/yr vs. 32k/yr , and if everything else were equal, you’d have a point.

      The trouble is, at 32k/yr there’s less likely to be cable tv and a regular dinner at the steakhouse and two car notes and .. just a whole lot of other little stuff that’s after that $68k/yr difference, eh?

      Same applies to Congress. Once the debt isn’t a threat, they’re going to go off on some new round of dumb-a$$ spending and push the debt even higher … until it becomes a threat again.

      Look at it this way. The “debt” is not *necessarily* a problem … but the mentality of the congresscritters is, and one way to address the problem of congresscritters is to corner them like rats, i.e. prevent them from running up more debt.

      Mew

      • Dave_A

        In terms of limiting the growth of the debt (limiting spending)…

        My point, above, is that we shouldn’t try to pay it off, just keep servicing it over time & make sure it stops growing….

        • acat

          over, say, 100 years …

          seems to me to be a reasonable (and, more importantly, a good *marketing*) goal.

          I understand the argument that the debt isn’t real because the government can print off enough to pay it next Tuesday .. and it’ll be gone.

          The counterpoint to that is that it’d instantly devalue every dollar in *my* bank account… as well as everyone elses’ bank accounts… so I’d prefer that they both not do that and – more importantly – that the threat of doing so be removed from the imbeciles in D.C., eh?

          Mew

          • Dave_A

            As long as the Federal Reserve remains independent of Congress, we will never monetize the national debt…

            We may grow our way back to a reasonable debt-to-income, but not print-to-pay….

            That said, I completely agree with the strategy, and wouldn’t be opposed to a ‘pay it off in 100 years’ or some other huge period of time that allows us to deal with it without seriously sapping resources from the economy….

          • acat

            print-to-pay happen, only they’ve been buying up the extra volume….

            As the Fed is supposedly separate, just how much control does the Fed have over the Treasury, eh?

            Not sure what the long-term result of Turbo Tax Timmie running the presses faster is going to be, glad the Fed is sopping up the extra liquid thus far.

            Mew

          • Dave_A

            The FED’s policies have to do with the fact that the private sector cannot survive even a short period of deflation, not anything to do with the national debt.

            Total public and private debt is OVER 50 TRILLION, of which 15 trillion is the federal debt now that O’s been around for 4 years….

            It’s the other 35 trillion of debt that drives the Federal Reserve’s policies, combined with the fact that – statistically – the American people HATE to save money and avoid it if at all possible…

            The fact that the government is slightly less easy-come-easy-go with it’s money than the general population just happens to conveniently mean that the best monetary policy for the private-sector (A target of ~3% annual inflation) also fits the public sector quite nicely…

            If you want to suffocate the US economy in it’s bed, take action to reduce our already-insufficient inflation… The private sector will choke on it’s debt long before the federal government changes it’s spending habits one bit…

          • commonsenseobserver

            Isn’t 2.5% or so the target? They can’t push it up further without another round of QE, but the UK has had a terrible experiment so far.

          • Dave_A

            And I think this crisis has shown us the limits of what the FED can do to stimulate inflation/growth…

            Contrary to what the hyperinflation-doomers claim, the market will not absorb an unlimited offering of money – there is a point where buyers stop buying it & the supply stops growing, even if the FED is almost giving it away for free…

            Central banks have huge powers to REDUCE inflation, but they can only do so much to CREATE it when the market isn’t buying the extra money they produce…

            Which means that if deflationary pressure goes up, we have a problem if the market is still stagnant (eg, if deflationary pressure goes up but no one starts ‘buying’ all that extra money the FED has sitting around on the ‘shelves’)…

          • commonsenseobserver

            If monetary policy cannot work, and fiscal policy is unsustainable…

          • Dave_A

            Monetary policy will start working again, if businesses start investing in the economy again…

            Which they won’t do, as long as ‘The private sector is doing fine, now gimme your money so we can hire more unionized public workers’ is the national economic policy…

            The recovery begins, when Romney wins…

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            What are the banks doing with the money the Fed is dumping? That is why the inflation figures are false low i.e. wages and home prices are not going up while commodity prices are exploding. The wages and home consume a larger portion of the index than commodity prices. In theory, the Fed would respond to a stagnant economy by reducing the rate at which banks are charged to loan to the Fed. The banks would then loan that money out to start small businesses, fund expansions, home building/buying, etc. As more money enters the system, the price of commodities go up because there is more demand. We then see what is called inflation, if it starts to expand too fast, the Fed responds by increasing rates to cool the inflation. What is happening today is the banks don’t see the profit in loaning the money back to the system with increased regulation, slashed fees, and lower returns and higher defaults so the banks have taken the money and are investing it in derivatives backed by commodities (basically speculating in commodities). This is causing commodity prices to increase (well except for natural gas and coal for outside reasons). We are now in a cycle of escalating commodity prices and stagnating wages. Essentially, the banks are using QE as a perpetual TARP like instrument to fuel their balance sheets. We really need to step back and see what in the environment is causing the banks to believe there is more money to be made in specualation than lending.

          • trimulchio

            employers stop holding the line and an inflation assumption is still baked into the pie. When raises come due to the “cost of living,” not productivity, it’s 1973 againa nd quickly.

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            We are not seeing inflating wages because employers aren’t hiring. The fuel of hiring is capital whether to start small businesses or expand larger businesses. In the current regulatory environment, large banks don’t see the profits in hiring vs derivatives where community banks don’t have the army of auditors and lawyers required to comply with Dodd-Frank, Sarbannes-Oxley or all their evil cousins. There is a lot of capital floating in the commodity space driving those prices upward and not as much capital in what I call the entrprenural space depressing things like home prices and wages. Almost everything Obama/Geitner/Congress Crazies have done in the banking sector has to be undone no matter how unpopular with OWS crowd.

          • trimulchio

            Back in the 1970s there was substantial unemploment and all the other badges and instruments of stagnation, as well as severe inflation. The two, we discovered. are not mutually exclusive, as economists had thought.

          • Dave_A

            And the reason is that the government has stomped on the private sector like it’s a bug to be squished…

            No one wants to invest in new business & become the next target of the regulatory rampage…

            The banks certainly don’t want to risk extending themselves into the lending market, with Dodd-Frank hanging over their heads…

            That’s the problem…

            As for ‘escalating commodity prices’, that’s not inflation – that’s the market and a climate of uncertainty over future commodity production levels & costs… Fostered by the regulatory state, of course..

            Inflation is a decline in the value of money due to an increase in supply without an increase in demand…

            Inflation effects all sectors roughly equally – some faster than others – it does not ‘only raise food and fuel’.

            Fuel raises food, and oil-supply concerns raise fuel.. No monetary component at all..

            If there was, we’d see an increase in US fuel prices only – but it’s global.

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