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2012 Election Predictions

Here’s how I think the 2012 elections, state and federal, will go 9 months out.

Presidency:

Mitt Romney/Rick Santorum: (375 EV’s)(54.5%)AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: (163 EV’s)(44.8%)CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT

Governorships:

Delaware: Jack Markell(D) 64-36 over Jeff Cragg(R). DEM HOLD.
Indiana: Mike Pence(R) 59-41 over John Gregg(D). GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Jay Nixon(D) 56-44 over Dave Spence(R). DEM HOLD.
Montana: Rick Hill(R) 55-45 over Steve Bullock(D). GOP GAIN.
New Hampshire: Ovide LaMontagne(R) 54-46 over Maggie Hassan(D). GOP GAIN.
North Carolina: Pat McCrory(R) 58-42 over Walter Dalton(D). GOP GAIN.
North Dakota: Jack Darymphle(R) 60-40 over Ryan Taylor(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Gary Herbert(R) wins running unopposed. GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Peter Shumlin(D) 53-47 over Randy Brock(R). DEM HOLD.
Washington: Rob McKenna(R) 54-46 over Jay Inslee(D). GOP GAIN.
West Virginia: Bill Maloney(R) 52-48 over Earl Tomblin(D). GOP GAIN.

Senate:

Arizona: Jeff Flake(R) 56-44 over Richard Cardona(D). GOP HOLD.
California: Dianne Feinstein(D) 58-41 over Dirk Konopik(R). DEM HOLD.
Connecticut: Chris Murphy(D) 55-45 over Linda McMahon(R). DEM GAIN.
Florida: Adam Hasner(R) 52-48 over Bill Nelson(D). GOP GAIN.
Hawaii: Linda Lingle(R) 54-46 over Ed Case(D). GOP GAIN.
Indiana: Richard Mourdock(R) 58-42 over Joe Donnelly(D). GOP HOLD.
Maine: Olympia Snowe(R) 61-39 over Matt Dunlap(D). GOP HOLD.
Maryland: Ben Cardin(D) 59-40 over Dan Bongino(R). DEM HOLD.
Massachusetts: Scott Brown(R) 52-48 over Elizabeth Warren(D). GOP HOLD.
Michigan: Pete Hoekstra(R) 53-47 over Debbie Stabenow(D). GOP GAIN.
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar(D) 53-45 over Dan Severson(R). DEM HOLD.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker(R) 63-37 over Albert N. Gore Jr.(D). GOP HOLD.
Missouri: Sarah Steelman(R) 55-45 over Claire McCaskill(D). GOP GAIN.
Montana: Denny Rehberg(R) 53-47 over Jon Tester(D). GOP GAIN.
Nebraska: Jon Bruning(R) 66-34 over Steven Lustgarten(D). GOP GAIN.
Nevada: Dean Heller(R) 54-45 over Shelley Berkley(D). GOP HOLD.
New Jersey: Bob Menendez(D) 53-46 over Anna Little(R). DEM HOLD.
New Mexico: Heather Wilson(R) 56-44 over Martin Heinrich(D). GOP GAIN.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand(D) 62-38 over George Maragos(R). DEM HOLD.
North Dakota: Rick Berg(R) 51-49 over Heidi Heitkamp(D). GOP GAIN.
Ohio: Josh Mandel(R) 51-47 over Sherrod Brown(D). GOP GAIN.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr.(D) 52-46 over Tom Smith(R). DEM HOLD.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) 65-35 over Barry Hinckley(R). DEM HOLD.
Tennessee: Bob Corker(R) 68-32 over Larry Crim(D). GOP HOLD.
Texas: David Dewhurst(R) 63-37 over Paul Sadler(D). GOP HOLD.
Utah: Orrin Hatch(R) 69-31 over Pete Ashdown(D). GOP HOLD.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders(I/D) 60-40 over Thom Lauzon(R). INDY/DEM HOLD.
Virginia: George Allen(R) 51-48 over Tim Kaine(D). GOP GAIN.
Washington: Maria Cantwell(D) 57-43 over Michael Baumgartner(R). DEM HOLD.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin(D) 53-46 over John Raese(R). DEM HOLD.
Wisconsin: Mark Neumann(R) 52-47 over Tammy Baldwin(D). GOP GAIN.
Wyoming: John Barrasso(R) wins running unopposed. GOP HOLD.

House:

Republicans:(+60)AZ-2, AR-4, CA-3, CA-9, CA-16, CA-41, CA-47, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, GA-12, HI-1, IL-12, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, ME-1, ME-2, MD-2, MD-5, MA-1, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MN-1, MO-5, NV-4, NJ-6, NJ-12, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-22, NY-23, NY-26, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OK-2, OR-1(Cornilles wins 51-47 over Bonamici tomorrow), OR-4, OR-5, PA-12, PA-13, RI-1, TN-5, TX-25, UT-4, VA-11, WA-1, WA-2, WA-9, WA-10, WV-3
Democrats: (+8)FL-22, FL-25, IL-8, MD-6, NH-2, TX-14, TX-27, TX-35

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COMMENTS

  • trevorb

    according to the calculations I made about the election, Obama loses 281-257. I don’t think it’s going to be a landslide.

    I decided to do it in a simple way: in all but democratic strongholds, states that have unemployment above 8 percent will not go for Obama. Under that criteria, he loses Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, Indiana, and Colorado. I added Virginia as well, even though they don’t qualify, since they’ve been a heavily republican state for a long time and I find it unlikely they will go for Obama again.

  • gregorysstewart

    Olympia Snowe is not running, so it will be very difficult for her to hold that seat. Angus King, (I) is the former governor of the state and he will take the seat. He will most likely caucus with the Dems, as he is an ex-Dem, but if he keeps his promise, he could caucus with the Reps if they gain the senate.

  • carolina

    would certainly get rid of ‘leader’ Reid. (and give the GOP 60, right?)
    Gaining another 52 (net) in the House is truly astounding.
    I can’t find any weak spots in your analysis.
    I hope you end up being at least 90% correct. (there are bound to be a few surprises)
    THEN the GOP will have to be focused and careful to not make the same mistakes the dems made when they had control of all 3 bodies of the federal govt = run over the will of the people.
    If Congress can prevent Romney from implementing his proposed class warfare tax policies, we may be able to endure Romney as President.
    Hopefully we will get true tax reform.

  • carolina

    would certainly get rid of ‘leader’ Reid. (and give the GOP 60, right?)
    Gaining another 52 (net) in the House is truly astounding.
    I can’t find any weak spots in your analysis.
    I hope you end up being at least 90% correct. (there are bound to be a few surprises)
    THEN the GOP will have to be focused and careful to not make the same mistakes the dems made when they had control of all 3 bodies of the federal govt = run over the will of the people.
    If Congress can prevent Romney from implementing his proposed class warfare tax policies, we may be able to endure Romney as President.
    Hopefully we will get true tax reform.