Simplify the Pi folks… Santorum is better off with Newt and Ron remaining in the race…

Short diary… came from a comment:

Look something that is being overlooked…

1. In order for Santorum to get 1144 and cinch… he’d have to win 66.6% (905) of all remaining unallocated delegates….(1358 – H/T CNN delegate calculator) (not impossible)…

2. In order for Santorum and Gingrich to deny Romney 1144… they need to combine to get 51.4% (699) of the remaining unallocated delegates. (more likely than “not impossible”)…

3. In order for Romney to cinch 1144 he has to win 48.6% (660) of the remaining unallocated delegates.

4. If it were a 2 man race…and supposing Newt and Ron gave all of their delegates to Santorum and dropped out…(HIGHLY UNLIKELY) Santorum would then have to win 700 delegates to get to 1144 or (51.4% of remaining unallocated delegates)… leaving Romney 2 delegates short of 1144 in this hypothetical.

The best chance Santorum has of going into a convention with more delegates than Romney… is to not only have 3 candidates to remove Romney’s needed 660 to cinch rather than going head to head… The practicality of WTA, and remaining demographics notwithstanding, Santorum would do well to encourage Newt to stay in the race and assist him in gobbling up proportional delegates in states that aren’t demographically advantageous to Santorum… or hope to make up a large gap on his own in a 4 man race…

Take it or leave it… everything in the “Not Romney” column either breaks for Santorum, Newt, Paul, in this hypothetical, or most likely Romney will win the plurality, and possibly the magical 1144.

Please don’t shoot the messenger, and NO this isn’t an endorsement for Newt, Mitt, Rick, or Ron… I’m just pointing out the “fuzzy maths”.

there is a chance that Newt being in the race does not stop Santorum from winning, but that has not been the case so far. Romney has won the majority of his states by being the one moderate, while the conservative vote is split between more than one candidate. I cannot see Newts plan being valid. He just thinks it needs to be him, or he does not care enough about beating Romney. Even some of Romney’s advisers are admitting that Newt being in the race helps Romney. This is simple logic, and it is a stretch for anyone to say Newt is helping Santorum, even if that is the case in some states, when it becomes winner take all, the whole thing is a wash.

Newt cannot seem to be the same man Perry was. He is going to end up helping Romney win these winner take all states, and his legacy will once again be that of the man who ruined it for conservatives after helping them gain so much.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Densely populated areas… and not the south…

Yes Newt in the race helped Romney to date… but going forward…remaining contests… the best path is to deny Romney delegates… and due to proportional delegate rules… its better to deny Romney as many delegates as possible… as for winner take all… the assumption is Romney loses because the conservative vote is split… but of the remaining WTA contests… Romney is favored… in most…in a head to head… Santorum likely doesn’t win the nomination and worse he’s less likley to deny Mitt the plurality and take this to convention.

• Common_Cents

In upcoming WTA states starting in April? Santorum and Gingrich would have to focus their campaigns on different states and push some strategic voting among supporters.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

That’s one method… there’s the other of just drawing fire from Romney and forcing him to hedge his investments on his “negative carpet bomb” techniques…

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Just look at the graphic above…. that a +10 margin in Santorums favor… look at the popular vote column for Gingrich and then the delegates column for Gingrich… then look at the remaining projections and tell me where … in this statistical skewed favor for Santorum where Newt denies Mitt more than Santorum..by dropping out…

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

u wrote Santorum + Newt must get 51.4% of the vote, and is thus a reason for Newt to remain in the race.

In truth, Santorum can easily receive 51.4% -699 delegates of the votes without Newt in the race.

Santorum was able to win MS & AL despite his having lost his momentum since he lost MI & OH while Romney came in w/momentum of his victories & Newt was there to serve as Southern candidate. Even without momentum, if Newt would’ve been out of the picture Santorum would’ve reached almost 60% in Mississipi-as per Nate Silver’s chart. This is without any momentum.

Once Santorum wins several state with 50-60% of the votes 2 things happen. Firstly, he gains a constantly strengthening momentum which usually results in even stronger victories. He can thus not only stop Romney but it’s possible for him to receive more delegates than Romney. Secondly, in many states, if one wins with a considerable margin they receive all delegates or an overwhelming percent. This would’ve been the case in AL if s/o would achieve 50%, something that was impossible in a 3 way race.

As scope pointed out in a comment in a different diary, Romney would’ve received a considerable number of lesser delegates if it would’ve been a 2-man race, based on RCP average & Nate Silver’s map. here’s a link to his comment

http://www.redstate.com/willwong/2012/03/14/calling-all-newt-supporters-should-newt-continue-will-you-continue-to-support-his-campaign-with-your-denari/#comment-522

Here’s another link – this one’s to John King who provides a clear map w/ the delegate counts & shows the results if Newt remains in or out. Newt remaining inside the race clearly favors Romney’s chances in winning outright since he doesn’t face a strengthened unified opponent.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

51.4% of the delegates, not the popular vote. There’s a BIG difference.

There’s one problem if it’s a 2 man race…The one with the “plurality” most likely wins Convention…

So what doth that avail Santorum to just deny Mitt 1144 in a 2 man race?

Santorum has to go for broke and get to 1144 (by winning 905 of 1358 delegates remaining), or win the plurality of remaining delegates (no less than…802 of remaining 1385 by himself in a head to head) In both of these scenarios…

Pushing Newt out lessens the likelyhood of denying Romney the plurality in the remaining races, and in their demographics… That’s the point I’m trying to make… the math, the demographics of remaining contests, the money all favor Romney… you pull Newt out of the race… and Romney has only 1 opponent on his march to 660 of the remaining delegates…

2 man race:
Romney has to win 660 of 1385 to clinch, and only 584 to deny Santorum the plurality in a 2 man race (supposing Ron Paul doesn’t get any more delegates).
Santorum has to win 802 of 1385 to win a plurality… or 905 of 1385 to clinch.

See?

• acat

Specifically, Romney supporters argue that Gingrich’s folks go to Romney, while Santorum supporters argue Gingrich’s folks go to Santorum.

Thing is .. why would a Values Issues voter not have shifted to Santorum already, or an Economic Issues voter not have shifted to Romney? There’s obviously something keeping the Gingrich supporters from making this leap …

My guess is, if Gingrich drops out, his supporters split – 1/3 to Santorum, 1/3 to Romney, with the bulk of the remainder either casting protest votes (Gingrich, Perry, and others will still be on the ballots …) or maybe staying home….

In short, Gingrich dropping out helps Romney, not Santorum.

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

The Gingrich votes that mostly go to Romney come in the age 55 and up range…

Oddly… Illinois may be the pivot point… if Santorum can deliver an upset in Illinois… it’s possible momentum could change the dynamics…

But that’s presuming that momentum is based on the “not Romney” factors… rather than the “pro-Rick” issue voters. Rick would have to go negative, and spend in parity to do so against Mitt… in a one on one… Romney has the advantage here.

• acat

I will note that I’ve gotten a couple Romney push-poll calls .. and seen one Santorum yard sign … in an area where Ron Paul signs sprouted like weeds … but haven’t seen any full-on ad buys from any campaign.

Romney doesn’t need to spend money to continue his delegate strategy – a plurality in Illinois suits him fine.

Santorum can’t crank up the ad buys without Romney matching him, and Romney’s got the bucks so .. Santorum’s arguably better off trying to win via a word-of-mouth grass-roots strategery .. but I don’t think he can get there.

Illinois corn farmers are similar enough to Iowa corn farmers Santorum could probably win ‘em .. but I don’t see him winning enough in Suburbia – especially the north-shore fiscal-conservative-social-moderate Suburbia – to close the deal.

Mew

• garfieldjl

Probably so he isn’t eating into Santorum’s support but is instead doing as much damage as possible to Romney’s support base.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

no text.

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

still left if he loses to Santorum in a majority of the states including large ones like Texas? More importantly, how does Newt help Romney receive less delegates? He has proven in AL & MS to have helped Romney receive more delegates since he prevented Santorum from winning with an even greater margin and reaching 50% in Alabama – in which case he would’ve gotten ALL the delegates.

Please check out the map from John King which I linked to you above. Newt already has over one hundred delegates and if Romney doesn’t reach the magical number, Newt will still remain with his delegates and have a seat at the table.

acat,

The reason why a majority of Newt supporters are assumed to go to Romney is because if Newt says his main agenda is to stop Romney from being the nominee, and his supporters agree with him, then they’ll choose the next alternative who can stop Romney. If Newt leaves the race and he truly wants to stop Romney, wouldn’t it make sense for him to endorse Santorum and not Romney-the guy who brought him down in Florida? This is also visible in all polls since a majority of Newt (and Romney) supporters have chosen Santorum as their favored candidate for second choice

• acat

The Gingrich supporters aren’t behind him “to stop Romney”.

They’re behind him for a variety of reasons – some want to stop Romney, some want to stop Santorum, some (like me) think he’s the best chance this country has.

An endorsement isn’t necessarily meaningful … I’ve not seen too many former Pawlenty supporters now talking up Romney, despite the endorsement….

Mew

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

A majority of Newt supporters have chosen Santorum as their second choice if Newt drops out. It’s true that many support him because they think he best for the country, as you said you are, but if he drops out -will you continue to support him even if no longer in the race? I don’t think so b/c otherwise you’d be voting now for Perry and not Newt since Perry is far better than Newt.

• acat

Where do the 49.98% go? More pointedly, do enough of them go to Romney to prevent Santorum from achieving victory?

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

1. Romney doesn’t need 51.4% to get to 1144, he needs 48.6 AND IT’s clinched.

2. If Santorum gets to 51.44% he’s ONLY denied Romney 1144…
2. a. In order to deny Romney, and have MORE delegates than Romney… (in a 2-man race) Santorum would have to get 57.9% of the remaining delegates… And that’s STARTING TODAY.
2. b. In order for Santorum to CLINCH he’d need 66.67% of remaining delegates… STARTING TODAY.

So even if Romney is denied the 1144 clinch… Romney has a pretty damned good argument going to convention with a plurality…

Also THE REMAINING DELEGATES is a small number… 1385…

So we’re not talking popular vote 57.9%, 51.4%… capice?

We’re talking Santorum HAS TO DOMINATE in a 2 man race in every remaining state STARTING TODAY… in races that favor Romney in the proportionality of Delegates and the WTA states…

What’s Wisconsin WTA compared to New York WTA, or New Jersey WTA?

Get the drift… I’m saying Newt forces Romney to battle multiple opponents, moving targets, and loses BADLY needed support in “proportional delegate” scenarios…

I don’t say these things to be mean… or to “screw” Santorum… I’m telling you, this is what I see in the tea leaves… take it or leave it Abie…

• acat

First, I’m not Abie. I’m sure you know that.

Second, I was referring to the subset “Gingrich supporters”, not to “All remaining GOP primary voters”.

That is, because a minority of Gingrich support flows to Romney (or off the table entirely) .. Santorum is helped by Gingrich staying in because Gingrich takes delegates that otherwise go to Romney.

I would, by the way, point out that there’s pretty damning evidence of collusion between Romney and Ron Paul already .. so I’d suggest looking at the Romney+Paul numbers …

I suspect Romney would prefer to cut a deal with Ron Paul so if they reach the magic 1144 together .. I suspect Paul will transfer his delegates to Romney in exchange for .. something.

At a guess .. how do either “Federal Reserve Chairman Rand Paul” or “The Republican ticket of Willard Romney and Rand Paul” sound?

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Very good points on the “Romney-Paul” confederacy…

Personally… that’s just ONE more factor that makes this Math harder for Santorum…

It sucks for the “DEFINITELY NOT ROMNEY, and NO WAY IN HELL PAUL” crowd…

Rand is not his dad… and I’d presume that wouldn’t be the worse case… but at the same time… I suspect Ron is fighting for Ron… Sec. of Treasury…. I mean let’s shoot for a dream right? /sarc

• acat

Not like, mind … but if Turbo Tax Timmie can cut that mustard, it’s gotta be Plotchman’s or something.
(a tasty but thin yellow mustard, commonly found on Chicago hot dogs)

I think I like that more than the Mitt Romney/Rand Paul ticket …

Mew

• http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I don’t need a racist paranoid Com-symp in the adminsitration.

• acat

Cheshire grin

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

because I see Newt as providing Romney with a split conservative vote as seen in the South this week instead of one unified strengthened candidate.

As I’ve responded below to acat – the math shows that if not for Newt Santorum would’ve won Michigan and Ohio. Illinois is coming up and is very tight. The math proves, as shown below, that if Newt remains in the race and receives 10-15% he literally hands Romney the victory. He is also the cause which allowed Romney to receive even a single delegate in Alabama.

If Newt backs out and Santorum does well enough to stop Romney from receiving enough delegates, Santorum can use the math to explain that he truly deserves the candidacy b/c if Newt would’ve dropped out earlier he would’ve won the earlier states as well. Newt delegates will likely go to Santorum.

Romney/Paul coalition indeed frightening and all the more reason for Newt to get out and allow Santorum beat Romney in Illinois and across the country.

• acat

#include &ltmath.h&gt

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

See “math” regarding Michigan, Ohio, and upcoming Illinois.

• acat

It appears that you’re not reading what I’m saying.

Had Santorum “won” Michigan – and I’ll note he did win the popular vote – he would have received one more delegate than Romney.

Proportional means the goal *isn’t* simply to win, it’s to deny Romney delegates.

Further, Gingrich denies Romney delegates that Santorum can’t. Again, if Gingrich drops out, not all of his support goes to Santorum.

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

I wouldn’t bet anything on what “will” or “won’t” happen at convention..

2 concerns.
a) non-bound delegates (caucus states mostly)
and
b) most delegates are Establishment, in spite of their election…

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

Here’s the math from TPM via PPP Polls:

Yet the numbers show that Santorum would indead be the biggest beneficiary of Newt dropping out, especially in what Illinois is shaping up to be ? a major flashpoint in the race like Michigan and Ohio, where Romney needs to prove his fronturnner status with a strong win as the media builds pressure on expectations of a positive result. Like the other ?must-win? midwestern states before, Romney will continue to cast doubt on his frontrunning status if he can?t get a big win.

Less than ten days before the Michigan primary, Public Policy Polling (D) released data on the contest and the second choice of Republican voters. Newt was set to take 10 percent of the total, while Santorum and Romney were fighting it out for the top spot. When asked who Newt supporters would jump to if he left the race, it wasn?t close ? 77 percent said they?d go to Santorum, 15 for Romney and 8 for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).

Numbers from Marist College before the Ohio primary were much less stark, but showed the same trend. Before the Super Tuesday vote, Newt was ready to get 15 percent. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters said Santorum would be their second choice. Thirty-two percent said the same about Romney, and 22 would have jumped to Paul. Romney ended up winning by eight tenths of a point.

?It varies from state to state, but I think Newt dropping out would be worth about five points to Santorum, so yes I definitely think Santorum would have won Michigan and Ohio had Gingrich dropped out by then,? PPP Pollster Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. ?Newt Gingrich has become Mitt Romney?s best friend. His presence in the race at this point serves no purpose but to help Romney.?
Polling has been light in Illinois, but a recent survey from the Chicago Tribune showed Romney with a four point lead, 35 percent to 31 over Santorum. Gingrich got 12 percent and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) saw seven. So there are signs that the state is shaping up like the other midwestern Republican primaries ? a slugfest in the mid-thirties to low-forties between Romney and Santorum, with Gingrich commanding just enough to possibly give the race to Mitt.

Asked by TPM if Newt could make Illinois another Michigan or Ohio, Jensen was clear. ?Absolutely,? he wrote. ?If Gingrich can get around 15% it will significantly hamper Santorum?s ability to win the state ? if Gingrich wasn?t in Santorum would get about 10% of that 15%.?

here’s a link to entire article

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/how-newt-gingrich-is-killing-rick-santorum.php

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

1. It ignores the mathematics of the Law of Large Numbers and how the popular vote in a 2 man race with the remaining Delegate proportionality is “more likely” than “less likely” going to help Mitt.

2. Nate Silver took the PPP polling data you alluded to… and did a data model on ‘Where Santorum would be without Newt ever being in the Race”… and there was a 10 delegate difference on the “proportional rules”… and Romney STILL led in the delegate count… Even though Santorum may have won up to 4 more states than he has… he’d still be behind in the delegate count having “57%” of Newt Support breaking his way… and these are in races that favored the “Not Romney” crowd… many of the remaining races are right in Romney’s wheelhouse… which is to say…

There *are* states where even if 100% of Newt’s voters backed Santorum, the “moderate/establishment” crowd would outnumber the entirety of the “conservative” crowd… See NY, NJ, CA, generally high populations. And when it comes to delegates, population density tends to gravitate to more moderate views in the political spectrum. There *are* moderate Republicans that prefer Newt over Romney, but Romney over Santorum in these demographics… mostly in the ages of 55 and above…

• acat

Let’s just keep that in mind.

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

in the General, its a new game…

Its Rove v Carville…

Can the MSM cushion the negatives for Obama… by driving up the negatives for a GOP candidate?

Can the GOP candidate get the base so excited, and yet still appeal to the independents (which requires more anger to incumbency than ideological shift)… independents are as fickle as “core conservatives”…

The “tent” is big enough… the question is how many can be shepherded through the flaps?

I think Thomas Crown said it best when (parphrasing)… ‘Romney can’t win, but Obama can lose’….

FWIW.. I personally believe both Santorum and Romney do not represent me… but I trust both of them to do better than Obama…

There’s very little hope if we don’t win this election… and I think this is where the independents and the core conservatives come to their senses… because Obama is really Just THAT bad on record. If we don’t win the general… then I’d suggest we ALREADY lost the culture wars… so if we lose…can we mount a counter-offensive sooner or later? More likely sooner than later…

I don’t like doom and gloom.

• acat

There was hope in the shipyards in Poland too … doesn’t mean I want to get to that point.

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

not text

• jamesm

If Romney is short. Romney can have a 1000 delegates after the primaries are over. Florida and Arizona will be contested and Romney will lose some delegates. Now he will have less. The thing that matters for Santorum is denying Romney a first ballot victory. Play with the numbers and guess all you choose.

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

last I’ve seen he only 6 points behind Romney. Strong tea party there. He doesn’t have to win every state to win Romney.

Nate Silver couldn’t include figures of where Santorum would stand in states once gains momentum since one can’t know how strong it would be, although definitely affects candidates. If Santorum would win MI he would have momentum and beat Romney in OH (even with newt in race.) would come to south now with even greater momentum and beat Romney by far stronger figures.

As soon as Newt becomes irrelevant this will be visible. The question simply whether it occurs through him dropping out, money drying up, or/and support shrinking and when it will happen. Because as you already admit, he cost Santorum several states until now and the longer he remains in the race, the more delegates Romney is receiving.

• http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

The world will end this year.

• http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…not so sure that applies to the CA primary, though. But if I recall reading correctly, delegate allocation is going to be mostly by congressional district, so the question becomes whether there is are regional variations in the relative supports of the candidates. But it’s still early – most CA voters aren’t focused in yet.

• jamesm

up. His poll numbers are heading south. Instead of being “the man” he is now reduced to playing spoiler. The argument is now who he hurts worse Romney or Santorum. From conservative icon to angry spoiler? This is not the actions of a statesman like Lincoln.

• Melody Warbington (rwm52)

he’ll be a hero, not a spoiler, in my book. Frankly, I don’t much care how he does it, either. In the political arena, that is.

• Melody Warbington (rwm52)

than the math lesson.

I’m not a statistics person or human calculator like some people I know, however, I think Newt (the smartest man in the room) has calculated every possible option to keep Romney from getting the nomination. And I am on board with that.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

my problem is… I’ve always been a “not Romney”… but in a head to head between Santorum and Romney… I can’t say my “not Romneyness” is greater than my “not Santorumness”…

Which isn’t to say that I don’t like Rick Santorum… I just don’t prefer him to Romney in a whole cloth comparison… they both have things I like about them and things I despise in their records…

I say let the best campaign win…

• garfieldjl

Just keep supporting Gingrich unless there is some strategic voting to deny Romney the delegates.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

notextforrealthistime.

• Melody Warbington (rwm52)

and will stay there even if it comes down to Mittens and Santorum. I think Santorum will keep his word to do everything he can to repeal Obamacare. Romney won’t. Beyond that, Santorum might very well end up being a “team” player with the Congressional leadership and go along with some proposals conservatives wouldn’t like, but might be contrary enough to push back on others. I think Romney would actually push the leadership toward squishiness so they could walk hand in hand.

On a side note, the other night my husband was reading the two diaries I posted and asked me what a “bot” was because I had referred to one in a comment. I told him about the candi-bot diary and ended up telling him a little about several of the regulars. Sometimes we are in our own little world here, aren’t we?

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

I like Romney on economics… he’s somewhere between Laissez-Faire and Budgeting…. Everything else is negotiable…

If Romney can “Balance the Budget”… “Reduce Bureaucracy”… “And encourage capital to start flowing again… he’ll swipe his hands and say… see, I’m pretty cool! The issue is “HOW” he gets there… Does he repeal Obamacare, push a BBA, reduce regulations and job killing policies in EPA, FCC, FEC, SEC, yadda yadda… repeal Dodd-Frank? a combo of all or none of the above? I trust Romney to be a CEO manager of those decisions better than Santorum… but what does it cost us down the road? At the same time, what does ignorance on navigating these issues cost us down the road?

Although I take Romney at his word on social issues… I don’t see him prioritizing any effort here… but if legislation comes to him… he’ll need a lot of PUSH from conservatives to not go soft in the “grey areas” of social issues. On foreign policy, I think Romney has the potential to be a Reagan… but that’s a coin toss… it’ll come down to the cabinet he builds.

On Santorum…

I’ll never doubt Santorum on social issues. I do think Santorum on Economics will likely “trust” advisors… and not be involved in the “Balance the Budget”… but I do trust him to do his best to repeal Obamacare…but I’m not sure he’ll be successful in convincing his old buddies in the legislature to not come up with some earmark strategy that benefits ALL… and what a little coin here… and there…
On foreign Policy… I’m concerned Santorum lacks the decision prowess of a 3AM call without trusting heavily on popular conservative principles… Foreign Policy isn’t so easy as just being willing to blow stuff up, or decide if it’s less costly but effective to not blow stuff up… Although, with Santorum… at least the Sabre rattling will be more authentic than with Romney… because Romney’s a really bad poker player… if you get my drift…

Yes sometimes we are in our own world… Say thanks to your husband from me for allowing you to be so involved… we need fighters of good faith always.

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

since Santorum served on foreign affairs committee for ten years and far more informed than Romney. I for one trust him more on that. He warned to not ignore dangers of Iran in ’90′s.

Economically, Santorum is the one who actually wrote the welfare reform bill and was credited with its passage. He also attempted to reform social security although that was unsuccessful.

Romney is also the only candidate who hasn’t signed the “Repeal Obamacare” petition. Why?

I agree with Melody & her concerns regarding Romney

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

I mean that in a good way…

I’m not suggesting Santorum would be bad at Foreign Policy… I think he’d be bad at handling a 3AM crisis… his debate performances convinced me of that… Take it with a grain of salt and pepper in the eye… just my perception.

As for defending Romney… I have no interest… Robamacare… is a loser… he should sign the petition to repeal… he won’t… exactly for the reasons I stated about how as a CEO… he’s going to take a business analysis lead, and reach for the attainable low hanging fruit… and hope he can declare “we’re fixed” whether or not Obamneycare/Robamacare… is repealed…

I’ve written extensively why I believe a BBA is the way to go, and that all SPENDING programs need to be reversed or reduced, and the biggest is Obamacare… So like I said… I’m definitely NOT ROMNEY… but I’m leaning to the NOT SANTORUM EITHER… let’s do a coin toss…

Either way we’re going to need to be vigilant with the pair of them.

• acat

Romney is losing to not-Romney roughly 40 to 60.

Therefore, as long as not-Romney remains consistent, Romney loses.

Any changes to not-Romney will increase the advantage to Romney.

At the risk of quoting George H.W. Bush .. “Stay the course”.

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

The simplest way I can say it:

The NOT ROMNEY (2 MAN race) puts more burden on Santorum to win 51.4% of remaining delegates… where demographics, proportionality, and money is Romney’s advantage…

The NOT ROMNEY (3/4 MAN race) creates more opportunities to divide Romney’s advantages.

Newt gets this… the chattering class does not.

• http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…or will his support be up for purchase by the highest bidder?

I only hope that behind all this, Newt’s first priority is to find the strongest candidate in his honest judgment to run against Obama.

Unfortunately, we may not get an answer for some time (if ever). Who knows what’s in a man’s heart?

But at this point, it’s best to assume good faith.

Otherwise, if corruption runs this deep among our candidates, our nation is in grave trouble regardless of the election outcome.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

His heart, I don’t know… his strategem is speaking loud and clear…

“Divide and conquer the Romney machine.”

If you assume that the only thing between Santorum beating Romney is the “split conservative vote”… then by all means… it may be ground to suspect that Newt went Anakin Skywalker on us….

However… Newt’s strategy at this point seems to be take the fight to Romney at the gates of Mordor, so the Hobbit can get to Mount Doom and destroy that “inevitability” ring…

I hope that doesn’t confuse you more.

• http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…as to whether whether Santorum does better in a two-way or three-way race. I’m not sure that Newt know for sure himself either. We do know that Perry’s endorsement didn’t help turn the tide for Newt.

So as I stated, we don’t know Newt’s heart but I think we need to assume good faith on his part at this point in terms of his public statements.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

(the graphic that I put in the diary)…IS MOST LIKELY SANTORUM’S BEST HOPE…

Now look at those remaining scenarios… Heck… Look at how Romney did better than projection in AL, Missippi under this projection…

That’s the point… We’re talking REALLY LONG SHOT by the numbers…let alone the dynamics of a 2-man blood bath in where Romney has the advantage of ‘non-rural’, ‘non-conservative’, ‘non-South’ states to look forward to…

Remember delegates are assigned by precinct and district/county… and they’re proportional to populations… Romney simply does better in “not South” and “not Rural”…

• http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

…at least at this point in the primary season. Less certain regarding the WTA states, but we’ve got time to see how things shift before then.

I think that instinct reflects that I don’t sense that there will a predominant break to Santorum by Newt voters that will enable him to overcome Romney’s lead. And it could even break the other way – we have a volatile electorate this season.

I think Santorum needs more seasoning before he can take on Romney’s army solo. Come April, we may be looking at a difference landscape – or not.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

True they pose a “battleground scenario” in a 2-man… but in WTA 51% of the popular vote is 51%… and Plurality is a Plurality…

It’s the proportional rules you have to look out for…

• Scope

One of the things you say Justin is that Newt can win in the states that Santorum is weak in. What states would that be Justin? So far, Newt won two Southern states, GA (home state) and SC. He lost Tenn., Al, and Miss. So Newt can’t claim to be the southern favorite at all. What other states across this nation has Newt won? None. Santorum has won in the south and in many other geographical areas other than the northeast, no surprise there. Right now, in primary season, many of the states where Romney has won, and received the most delegates, is because he is winning in the urban areas which have the highest populations, or votes. Take that to the General, where if it is Romney against Obama, it is reasonable to believe that Romney would get the rural voters with the ABO push, but Obama will win the higher number of votes from the urban areas which have gone now to Romney. Then you have a reverse Romney/Santorum scenario in the general with Obama winning the vote counts statewide.

Looking at the picture so far, Gingrich fell after the Fla. primary, and he hasn’t regained much if any footing since then. Now that we have witnessed the actual primary votes, and we have moved off the speed dating that was going on prior to Iowa, with the anybody but Romney candidates Santorum has maintained the ABR momentum the longest, and with each win that momentum increases, and intensifies. That has not happened for Newt at all. In fact, look at where Gingrich placed on Super Tues. He won his home state, and then placed last or next to last in all the other nine races. That should have been the Gingrich exit night, but apparently he thought that one win would put him back in the race, but it hasn’t. He ceded every other race for super tues, to put all his focus on AL and Miss. He didn’t win either, and it is no surprise that Romney would do poorly in the south, that should have been a given, despite the way off polling.

Now again, go back to your idea that Newt can win in areas that Santorum is weak and, and please tell me what states Gingrich can win over Romney in when he hasn’t been able to win anywhere except two southern states. Name me those states Justin.

So Gingrich says he knows it would be impossible for him to win the number of delegates required to get the nom, but, he just wants to keep Romney from getting all the delegates. There are no WTA states that I am aware of that Gingrich can win in, with his record so far in more than 20 states that have already gone, and from all areas in the country. There are WTA states that favor Santorum such as LA, Wisc., PA, and a host of others. Gingrich has no more chance of winning NY, CA, CT, DC, MD, RI and that list goes on. Please look at the states that have gone already and understand the picture of where Gingrich has placed. Geez, when you have Ron Paul beating you in several states, doesn’t that mean anything?

In the winner take all states, with Newt on the ballot the conservative vote gets split, and Romney wins by default. In the proprtional states yet to go, that favor Santorum over Romney, Gingrich still in the race removes any chance of Santorum getting over 50% of the vote, and therefore denies him the ability to get a larger share of delegates than if Newt dropped out. If Newt is seriously in the ABR category he has proven over and over again that the voters aren’t buying what he is selling. By staying in the race at this point, he is no doubt at all helping Romney, and hurting Santorum.

Anyone who thinks for a minute that a nominee Romney will do more to help the down ticket races, over a Santorum nominee, needs only to look at the voter turnout in the races so far. Romney has won the areas with the lowest turnout, so how does that help any one down ticket races, which customarily vote Democrat.

• garfieldjl

In all honesty it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of Romney supporters will turn around and vote Obama in the general.

Furthermore, Newt is planning to target the urban areas in Illinois to specifically go after Romney’s voting base.

That kind of tells me Gingrich intends to do as much as possible to derail a Romney’s chances of being the nominee.

• acat

What part of “Gingrich + Santorum take more delegates from Romney than Santorum alone” was unclear to you?

Mew

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Where did I say “Newt can win in the states that Santorum is weak in.”

I didn’t say that… And you clearly don’t want to listen… I’m quite sincere in my analysis… good, bad or indifferent.

No the burden is not on me to prove to you where Newt does better than Santorum… I never alluded to this…

What I did allude to is that Newt DOES take away from Romney where Santorum may not…

Santorum has won in the south and in many other geographical areas other than the northeast, no surprise there. Right now, in primary season, many of the states where Romney has won, and received the most delegates, is because he is winning in the urban areas which have the highest populations, or votes.

Remember the graphic provided is a VERY GENEROUS skewing FOR SANTORUM… and it does what you’re asking, which is to show Santorum’s path… if ALL THINGS break Santorum’s way in the remaining races in there many configurations of “WTA vs Proportionality”…

LISTEN to what I’m Saying… Don’t put words in my mouth.

You take Newt out, even Ron Paul… out of the race… entirely…

And then Romney just has to win proportionality delegates against 1 opponent… this is a very difficult scenario for Santorum… not saying it’s impossible… just saying it’s more difficult than Denying Romney… 660 delegates with Newt Out of the Race…

Delegate vacuum is better than a popular vote win, and a delegate loss (regardless of whether you’re denying Romney 1144, or going beyond just denying him the cinch, but also the plurality… which in this case Santorum would have to win from this day forward 802 delegates to Romney’s 659 in a 2 man race…. capice?)

I’m just giving analysis… I make no assumptions regarding “what is right and wrong”

• http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

but these guys simply fail to understand simple reasoning, as I’ve discovered above.

• acat

Pathetic.

Mew

• garfieldjl

Also Newt seems to be targetting the areas urban in Illinois that would be strong zones for Romney.

That hardly sounds like it hurts Santorum all that much if Gingrich is actively trying to get the votes of people that vote Romney.

• lynnotting

because Santorum continues to prove he does not have the experience to be President. His statements in Puerto Rico have diminished any chance he may have had of taking delegates from Romney and again shows why he will not get the nomination…. While being a social conservative is all it takes to get a nomination in some states, it is not enough to win most of them and it certainly won’t be enough to win any general election. As far as I am concerned, he will be the reason Romney is nominated. It is his ego that I blame for Newt not being able to go up against Romney and it is now obvious that if Newt got out, Romney would have no problem getting the delegates to win.

• Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

no text here.