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Romneycare Failing, Obamacare Will Follow

We already have a model of how Obamacare will fail: Romneycare

It is surprising that the national debate on Obamacre has thus far excluded any real examination of the state wide healthcare program signed into law in 2006 by Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. But maybe the fact that Romneycare, a system closely resembling Obama’s policies, is failing on several levels serves as a reason that Democrats want to pretend that system doesn’t exist when debating their own programs.

The Wall Street Journal had a July 11 editorial that looked a little closer at Romneycare and found the whole thing wanting, suggesting that Obamacare might be “dead on arrival” if Romneycare is reviewed.

The Massachusetts law, which was championed by former GOP Governor Mitt Romney, imposed an individual mandate, requiring nearly all residents to buy health insurance or else pay a penalty. (The exceptions are those who qualify for the state’s public program.) This was supposed to cover everybody and save money too. We’ve written before about how costs have exploded, but it also turns out that consumers have other ideas.

Once again, it appears that human reactions makes monkeys out of the central planners. So what happened?

Well, the returns are rolling in, and a useful case study comes from the community-based health plan Harvard-Pilgrim. CEO Charlie Baker reports that his company has seen an “astonishing” uptick in people buying coverage for a few months at a time, running up high medical bills, and then dumping the policy after treatment is completed and paid for. Harvard-Pilgrim estimates that between April 2008 and March 2009, about 40% of its new enrollees stayed with it for fewer than five months and on average incurred about $2,400 per person in monthly medical expenses. That’s about 600% higher than Harvard-Pilgrim would have otherwise expected.

The individual mandate penalty for not having coverage is only about $900, so people seem to be gaming the Massachusetts system. “This is a problem,” Mr. Baker writes on his blog, in the understatement of the year. “It is raising the prices paid by individuals and small businesses who are doing the right thing by purchasing twelve months of health insurance, and it’s turning the whole notion of shared responsibility on its ear.”

This is the key thing that out-of-touch economists and power hungry central planners never, ever seem to get. People will not just stand still and allow others to tax them to death, or decide for them how they will live their lives. When they see opportunity to “game the system” or when they have any chance at all to make out over the government they will do it.

It always happens. The rules are only so strong as they are until people figure a way around them. This is why less government is better because there are fewer rules to spend so much energy getting around and people can get on with the business of living their lives.

As an example, we can look at the simplicity of the U.S. Constitution. Clocking in at a mere ten pages (including the Bill of Rights and minus the letter of transmittal) it is the very model of simplicity and directness. On the other hand, the new EU Constitution amounts to some 300 pages and is widely viewed as a mess.

With the many failures of Romneycare, that template serves to show that Obamacare will follow the same dismal path.

As my friend Tom Blumer said on his Bizzyblog entry:

If the failures of state-run health care in Massachusetts were more widely known, the clear and imminent failure of what might become ObamaCare would be drop-dead obvious. That would seem to explain the statist solutions uber alles establishment media’s disinterest.

Obamacre is Romneycare on a national scale and at a correspondingly larger level of failure.

Cross posted at HealthcareHorseRace.com.

(Also H/T Thea Shoemake)

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COMMENTS

  • alarm1201

    is the reason he should never be the Republican nominee for president, unless he contritely admits his error – and then only maybe.

    • Princeliberty

      This is one the few things on Romney’s record and its big government and a huge failure.

      Unlike so many others were he can say I had to because its a liberal state,
      Romney hammered it thru.

      So he has to be held account.

      And of course there is the little matter that he has been liberal and conservative on almost every major issue not just abortion and gay rights, but illegal immigration, taxes, spending etc….

      He also supported TARP.

      Romney is part of the big government unreformed Bush crowd.

      We have to face the reality that we have to fight to take the Republican away from the big government types and that it will not be easy.

      Acting like only Democrats can be bad will not move the country forward.

      The fact that Obama is the worst President ever does not make any of Bush’s wrongs right.

      • ZootSuit

        Romney still brags about it …!

        And that is just one of many reasons why I say that John McCain may very well have been the most conservative of the major Republican Presidential candidates in 2008. Yuck!

        I do not like John McCain and yes, my stomach is turning.

        But you know what … the “mainstream” of the Republican Party is probably worse.

        • Princeliberty

          The Republicans did not have a winner in the bunch for 2008.

          Despite what the media had it not been for Palin, McCain would have lost by more because so many more conservatives would have stayed home.

          And Senator McConnell would probably be former Senator and there probably be dozen or more addtional Democrat reps.

  • benwhite72

    The absolute smartest thing Mitt Romney could do is to hold some sort of press event RIGHT NOW and proclaim that your plan in Mass. and your support of that plan was a mistake. Government run health care and government intrusion in health care is a bad idea. If it wasn’t evident before, it is evident now.

    Benefits to Romney:
    - Gets the government health care monkey off his back for the Republican primaries
    - Clear shot at the Democrats’ plan now, giving him an issue in 2012
    - How refreshing would it be to have a government official acknowledge a big government mistake? Very.

    Come on Mitt. Now is the time.

    • itdiehard

      No statement will be made… Rino…

      • JCloned

        Nor will leading republicans call attention to it in national news b/c Romney is more important to them and than we are.

  • WarEagle01

    Well duh. Ken Arrow explained “moral hazard” and “the tragedy of the commons” in 1963 and liberals still don’t get it. It’s amazing how their ideology so completely blinds them to the reality of how people act in real life. Interestingly, Arrow’s nephew is another famous economist, one Larry Summers.

  • mbecker908

    Mitt says it’s working.

    • http://www.publiusforum.com Warner Todd Huston

      How could I not see it!?

    • JCloned

      Mitt had so much fun lying in the campaign why should he quit now>

  • eburke

    seen by some as the ‘conservative savior’ for the ’12 elections (it even supercedes his multiple conservative conversions in the year leading up to the primaries)

    As someone noted upthread, he will have to issue a mea culpa of *immense* proportions re: this debacle for me to even give him a serious look. Considering that as recently as a year ago he was touting it as an example of his leadership skills and business acumen, I shan’t commence holding my breath.

    • JCloned

      Sad truth is our national party leaders seem to think a RINO is more likley to win so they will gladly embrace RINO’s. Power wins over Principle. Sad but true.

    • ZootSuit

      This issue *alone* is why it baffles me that Mitt is … seen by some as the ?conservative savior? for the ?12 elections (it even supercedes his multiple conservative conversions in the year leading up to the primaries)

      eburke, I agree.

      And that is why I say that the real problem America is now facing is not that Barack Obama and most of the Democrats are socialists. The real problem we are facing is that many so-called conseravtives are not any better. “We” want socialism, too. We just want it enacted by those with an “(R)” behind their names.

      • eburke

        not because I don’t want to agree with you (seeing as most of the time I do) but reluctant because, unfortunately, your premise re: socialism with an R after it seems ok with far too many in our party. For the “Beltway” crowd and many of their supporters it’s all about power. Just give us our piece of the pie.

        The hope lies in what ColdWarrior has been preaching ad nauseum for weeks – get involved at the precinct level. The MN GOP just elected two 3-legged stool conservatives to be chair & vice-chair of the party. Both were anathema to the ‘moderate’ blue-bloods who are known to never duck a fight when they have the chance (the vice-chair runs a blog entitled “Minnesota Democrats Exposed” but the both won on the first ballot. I guarantee you that when I, a county delegate, was voting for our reps to the state convention, I *knew* candidates were supportive of whom for those 2 slots and voted accordingly.

        The only way we stop this madness is from the bottom up ’cause w/the exception of Coburn, DeMint, Shaddeg and a few others, it ain’t gonna come from the top down.

        Or, as one of our fearless leaders says as his tag line: We *are* the cavalry!

  • JCloned

    This is another example of how our Republican leadership is putting their hunger for power above the interests of the country. Seeing Romney as their best shot at regaining the White House in 2012, they are content to put up a token fight on Obama Care while leaving the facts most likely to stop ObamaCare in its tracks untold. Why, because if they use RomneyCare against ObamaCare they will terminally harm Romney’s shot at the presidency. Instead they choose to sell out the country and their constituency. Where are the leading Republicans screaming this on every talk show, from every podium , in every forum? Silent. How can I call myself a Republican with this kind of representation. Quit trying to shove Romeny down our throats. We rejected him once as he finished third to the weakest candidate we have run in a national election in decades.

    Sad truth is they won’t sell out RomenyCare because Romeny is more important to them than the country is.

    • Princeliberty

      RINOs aren’t winners.

      The biggest winner was Reagan. Bob Dole and McCain the biggest Rinos were the biggest losers.

      The Republican leadership wants to continue to serve big business and get wealthy serving the big government big business alliance.

      Also, they are desperate for the Media’s approval.

      The last thing on the earth they want to do is shrink government.

    • Princeliberty

      RINOs aren’t winners.

      The biggest winner was Reagan. Bob Dole and McCain the biggest Rinos were the biggest losers.

      The Republican leadership wants to continue to serve big business and get wealthy serving the big government big business alliance.

      Also, they are desperate for the Media’s approval.

      The last thing on the earth they want to do is shrink government.

  • Common_Cents

    I have seen comparisons to requiring auto insurance. A good thing, right? Yeah.

    Cept, with auto insurance people aren’t going to increase the number of car accidents voluntarily for an all you can crash auto insurance program. Car accidents hurt. Therein lies the difference.

    On the contrary, with health insurance you are incentivised to get your money’s worth.

    Will someone show me anyone who forks over $29.95 for a buffet that doesn’t indulge? It’s human nature.

    Why O why can’t our over-educamated leaders make these simple points?

  • rfpzzzzz

    States should “test market” all sorts of government programs before they are enacted and fail on a grand scale. If Mass. or any other state wants government run anything they should be able to do it and we should have the luxury of observing real measurable results. Lots of things people try fail , there is no disgrace in that. Not learning from failure is a disgrace. I would like to hear Romney discuss what worked and what didn’t since he has some actual experience.

    • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

      One party thinks that the Federal government should lump all programs into a one size fits all category. and the other party pretty much feels the same way even thought they give lip service to federalism.

      An example was the Bush administration going after states that voted for medical marijuana.

      • The_Rebel

        from Republican Congressman John Fleming of Louisiana’s 4th district:

        “Over the past few weeks, members of Congress and the American people have come to know the details of the Administration?s proposed health care plan. Call it whatever you like, this proposal is nothing more than government-run health care. As a physician, I am amazed at the number of bureaucrats in this House who are quick to claim a government-run health care plan is the reform this country needs. In response to this, I have offered a resolution that will offer members of Congress an opportunity to put their money where their mouth is, and urge their colleagues who vote for legislation creating a government-run health care plan to lead by example and enroll themselves in the same public plan.

        Under the current draft of the Democrat healthcare legislation, members of Congress are curiously exempt from the government-run health care option, keeping their existing health plans and services on Capitol Hill. If Members of Congress believe so strongly that government-run health care is the best solution for hard working American families, I think it only fitting that Americans see them lead the way. Public servants should always be accountable and responsible for what they are advocating, and I challenge the American people to demand this from their representatives.

        If you agree with me, sign our online petition and together we will work to ensure that any plan that is good enough for American families is good enough for every member of Congress.”

        Video here:

        http://www.fleming.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=24&sectiontree=23,24&itemid=193

        • eburke

          type of stuff that the GOP needs to do more of. We can talk about policy and charts and cost containment and all it will do is make the average Joe’s eyes glaze over because they’ll get a slew of ‘statistics’ from the other side.

          This keeps it super simple – Joe and Jane Q Public, why does your Democratic Congressman/Senator not want to subect themselves to the same kind of program that they want to place you under? Run it again and again and again.

          Simple.Easy.Brilliant!!

  • charliebravoNH

    This article jumps the gun on Romney and the MA Heathexchange. First Mitt Romney got elected governor of MA in 2002 on the backs of independent voters and what few Republicans in the state. Mitt is no RINO like the usual cast of RINOs like MCCain, Lindsey Gramnesty, and Spector (before he went home to the Democrats). Romney has courted Conservatives unlike McCain and Graham who have stuck their middle finger in the face of the Conservative Movement. Romney is a opportunist more than he is as a RINO.

    The “Romneycare” program’s problems are a result of more people becoming eligible for the program’s subsidized insurance and a reduction in rate payers. As more people lose their jobs in MA, the income levels of those people go below the 300% FPL level threashold to receive the state subsidy. The state subsidy is to buy private insurance through the health exchange. The revenues they expected from the “willingly uninsured” have been lower than the forecast. No doubt some of those people moved to NH or RI or just payed the $900.00, which is a small penalty.
    Are they more people in MA receiving healthcare because of this plan?Yes, that was the idea behind the program. What isn’t happening with “:Romneycare” is that employers dumping their employees for a public option. The only public options in MA are Medicaid, SCHIP and Medicare. I have not heard of any hospitals in MA closing. MA has some of the best hospitals in the country.

    What will Romney do? I can only guess he is waiting for the final bill in Congress to be signed into law.Unlike Hillary, Obama wants victory on this and he will get a bill. If the final bill has a public option and it decimates the private insurance market, “Romneycare” will look good by comparison and he will claim as he always has, that his plan was about private insurance. If “Obamacare” looks like “Romneycare” Romney will have to move to the right of Obama and claim “Romneycare” to be a failure if he wants to be credible in 2012.

  • eburke

    and brought in less money than anticipated?

    I’m stunned!! ::rolling eyes::