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DOOM WATCH – ‘It’s a Brown-out’

'It

Those were the words of the director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, David Paleologos. In a new local poll in Boston, Scott Brown is now leading 50% to 46%*.

What we are witnessing here it the transformation of a state from solid blue to purple**. The numbers in the Herald article are stunning. Scott Brown has captivated the people of Massachusetts with his “happy warrior” style of campaigning, and his common man approach to people. Throughout the campaign he has stayed on point and on the issues. And he truly understands that he is applying for “the Peoples Seat“. All of these actions are beginning to pay off beyond many of our imaginations. Follow me as we walk through this meadow of awesome.

First, we have the independent voter…

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

I will make this simple for the mathematically challenged out there, that’s just over two to one in favor of Scott Brown.

Moving on..

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

It’s no wonder Obama has no intention of going to Massachusetts to campaign for Coakley, he knows he and his health care deform are politically toxic. But he can’t escape the blame he share. No, not to worry my babies, to paraphrase Dennis Miller, we already knew that the people reject Obama and his faux reform, now we know that he does too. Thanks for that Barry.

Now, some may say that this is just one poll, an out lier, nothing to hang your hat on. Well, those people do have a point, but this poll has a lot of good going for it in this group of snippets below.

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

*snip*

and with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.
Brown’s popularity is solid. He enjoys a 57 percent favorability rating compared to just 19 percent unfavorable. Coakley’s favorability is 49 percent; her unfavorability, 41 percent.

*snip*

No longer does Brown suffer from a name-recognition problem, with 95 percent of voters having heard of him statewide.

DOOM DADOOM DOOM DOOOOOOOOOM

I will leave you with the words of 7News Political Editor Andy Hiller…

Voters obviously think Brown is running a better campaign than Coakley. For months, it has been Coakley’s race to lose, and now in the last days that’s exactly what she may be doing.

Oh, and….Scott Brown.

Aaron B. Gardner

* For those wondering, and you know who you are, yes Joe Kennedy was in the poll. He drew 3%.

** I will wait for Kerry to be shown the door before I even believe it can be Red.

P.S. See Mbecker’s take as well.

P.P.S. Also see a snarkier and more, hhhmm how should I say this, robust(?) take down from our friend Lori (aka snarkandboobs), over at iOWNTHEWORLD.

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COMMENTS

  • vamoose

    I like to think of Coakley’s HQ in terms of this FedEx “Doomed” Ad.

    “Help this woman or we’re all doomed!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ

  • http://nanosecondinv.proboards.com/index.cgi? trapeze

    Now close the deal.

  • Third Street

    They polled Massachusetts, right?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    … if this gets through. I’m not sure if its blocked?

  • http://charlemagne-the-hammer.blogspot.com/ DerKrieger

    …of Obamacare and the Democrat agenda.

    Not only are they likely to lose a solidly blue Senate seat but they are about to lose the seat held for centuries by the champion for socialized medicine, Ted Kennedy. So, Obama, Kennedy, and socialism are being rejected all in one fell swoop.

    I hope conservatives are charged up to run all the socialists out of Congress.

  • http://charlemagne-the-hammer.blogspot.com/ DerKrieger

    …have second thoughts if Brown wins. I still believe a lot of Dems are desperate to find a way to vote against this and save themselves.

  • Mary Beth

    Per GatewayPundit…

    “Best line:

  • Aaron Gardner

    And what are you talking about being blocked?

  • Aaron Gardner
  • proudgop

    do u live in Mass?

  • Aaron Gardner
  • http://charlemagne-the-hammer.blogspot.com/ DerKrieger

    but what I meant is that I think some of the Dems in the Senate like Nelson, Lincoln, Bayh may have second thoughts about voting for socialized medicine and are looking for an excuse to oppose it. Brown may be that excuse if he wins.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    .. I have had multiple people write me personally about it.

    Everything people are writing now, I was writing in November, I can prove it… I

    It seems like every johhny-come-lately wants to be a hero about this insurgence. I had some good inside intel, but I can’t and won’t write if people are not allowed to comment on my diaries.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • Swamp_Yankee

    http://www.redstate.com/swamp_yankee/2010/01/14/scott-browns-momentum/

  • Third Street

    A year ago the Dems were beating their chest and talking about realignment. Said the GOP had become a regional rump party competitive only in the South.

    Flash forward to 2010, and we’re about to capture Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in the bluest state there is.

    If I were a Democrat my blood would be running cold right now at the thought that Obama has three more years to create a real realignment in this country.

  • proudgop

    I lived in Mass ( attended Deerfield Academy) for a while and have some family there still ( Belmont, Newton)

    I am trying to gain a feel on some areas of state not too familiar with?

    What parts of Cape Cod Are Republican? Is Salem a swing city?

    Boston, Fall River, and New Bedford are big 3 Democrat cities

    Brown will do well in Western MA, Springfield MA, parts of Rhode Island, NH border

  • Aaron Gardner

    I am not trying to be a jerk, I am really wondering. I had tech issues with a former account if you recall, no one could recommend what I wrote after the move to RS3, so I understand how you feel. Also, I think your input in this race has been great, as a rule, I rarely recommend diaries any more, but I have recommended a few of yours.

    I don’t know if you are counting me in as johhny-come-lately, and don’t really care, I am just reporting what I goll from the poll results.

    Anyhow, hit the contact form and I bet Neil would be happy to see if there is a technical problem with your account.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Go back in to the “Create New Diary” link and go to the manage tab and edit the post. Go down below the body of the post and there should be check boxes for comments. Make sure those are correct, if not, contact form.

  • thelonebostonconservative

    I think the idea that Western MA will vote for Brown is a myth. Hampden County (Springfield Area) went 60% Obama. Berkshire County went 75% Obama. McCain did best in the suburbs around Boston. Particularly, the South Shore (Plymouth, Quincy), MetroWest (Wellesley, Natick, Dover), parts of the Cape, and Worcester.

    There are moonbats all over this state. The key is going to be Coakley’s voters staying home, and Brown’s voters being energized.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    but it was fine when I left for work, cam back and *%$@#$@#$. Dont know why. ?????? Or hummm ?????

  • capeindependent

    Falmouth is very liberal Dem, Sandwich is a bit more conseravative. Not sure about the lower Cape. Working man and woman are coming out in droves. I wish I had a video camera to post. Brown signs are everywhere. I keep my fingers crossed that Tuesday is a huge step in the right direction. Too bad my own brother, who I had a huge fight tonight…he started it… is voting against Brown…ARGH!!! Do I find a support group to deal with the shame or what?

  • proudgop

    Go by previous Gov Races

    Where did Romney do well in Gov race? Celluci and Weld prior

    where did Romney and Weld win when they ran for US Senate?

  • proudgop

    Provincetown is liberal, Nantucket too

    Martha’s Vineyard bit more neutral ( year round residents)

    Bourne Mass?

  • jeffreywturner

    Enthusiasm among conservatives & independents coupled with depressed liberals may indeed allow Brown to win. However, the people of that state are largely in favor of unfettered access to abortions, special privileges for homosexuals and massive government entitlements. It isn’t like these people have all of a sudden changed their minds on these things. They are STILL liberals. Look Ronald Reagan won Mass. in 1984. That didn’t signal a change in the politics there, it was merely the result of a red wave. 2010 is likely to be a red wave, and we should be happy to take it, but we should not delude ourselves into believing that a state like Mass. is going to “find religion” and make a permanent move to the right.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    … But always a SOCO boy, till the day I die. No matter where I go or what I do, my blood is South Coast forever. Straight commercial fisherman.

  • antisocial

    Dear AG,
    Why did you make it easy for “mathematically challenged”? You know of democrats registering in droves on this site?

  • thelonebostonconservative

    But the message is being sent. If you can’t safely defend this place, how is Arlen Specter going to survive?

  • proudgop

    everyone should wear Brown on Tuesday to show they believe

  • capeindependent

    I wonder how much the state mandated health cre factors into this election. Is it possible that this mandate has been overlooked. MA has the highest healthcare premiums in the country as a result and as Scott Brown has already pointed out, the fed “reform” will be over and above expense wise for MA residents.
    On another note Coakley ads are running 2-3 times Brown ads. DNC is running ads in tandem to her adds. They are all negative. Brown is consistently taking the high road. I really think most voters have contempt for negative campaigns and will vote accordingly. I will submit a letter to the ed tomorrow calling out Coakley and her campaign.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    … Maxed out on their education my whole life. I know them better than they know themsleves. .. the blessing and the curse of my education.

  • capeindependent

    OH I forgot to mention, thanks to the Chamber of Commerce. They are running positive ads for Brown that compliment his message very well.

  • thelonebostonconservative

    The Cape will go for Brown. Provincetown is only about 4,000 people and is not a big concern even though it will likely go 95-5 for Coackley.

  • http://charlemagne-the-hammer.blogspot.com/ DerKrieger

    …join us in supporting Federalism. I don’t care what they or the lunatics in CA do I just don’t want them forcing me to follow suit or help pay for it.

  • Lartius

    What I find most telling from this poll information is that these exact same pollsters had Coakley leading 54 to 24 in September and 58 to 27 in November. In an almost identical poll over the past three days, Brown has gone from down THIRTY ONE points to up by FOUR. No need to ponder the differences in polling technique, because they are all from the same people. Incredible.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Upper Cape has to be heavy Brown. Sandwich may be the most conservative town in MA. Everything West of Hyannis. East is all the aritsts and gays. The key word is “Upper Cape”

    Salem is a swing city. Its a city, but that whole area trends moderate. Its was part of Peter Torkildsen’s district. But its not rah rah conservative. Its all blue blood conservative in the Maine Twin mold.

    Fall River and Nw Bed. Forget it. Its all about voter suppresion. The best hing for us is to let them sleep their hangovers off. Same for Boston. All Coakley. Its just a matter of how much gets out.

    Western Mass, all liberal, super liberal, beleive it or not. The highest Deval Patrick rating in the state, higher then Boston.

  • capeindependent

    Brother lives on Nantucket…go figure.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I said it is transforming, which is a process. Watch their elections at the state levels over the next couple of years and see where they trend. Voting for a Republican to hold this seat after 50+ years of Democrat dominace is certainly transformational. And the director of Suffolk

  • sharonmcp
  • proudgop

    I thought Republicans always win Western MA in all Gov Races? very rural?

    u think we need to look for turnout in cities and suburbs then?

    I was at New Bedford newspaper site today and they had poll on race ( not scientific and I didn’t want to post it here to see how it went) but Coakley was ahead 50% to 48%

  • capeindependent

    We have been bled by the state dems. Devalue Patrick has been a complete waste, I think people are waking up. With luck and patience may be the mood will hold and we can rid ourselves of the Senator most out of touch MR Cap and TAX himself the dishonorable Kerry!

  • capeindependent

    Great idea!

  • proudgop

    Mass is losing a congressional seat and I suspect a majority of those who fled where more right of leaning

  • Aaron Gardner

    They are quite good. I also think that Coakley’s saturation is going to backfire on her. Like the poll said, 99% decided with name recognition of both being very high. She isn’t going to move the voters with her negative attack ads, and the people are going to be sick of seeing her face and name by Tuesday.

  • proudgop

    Its going to be almost 45 ( heat wave for how cold its been) so everyone will be out tomorrow and Saturday and then it rains Sunday

  • audax

    Keep realigning O Baby!

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Western Mass is crazy liberal. I know it seems counter-intuitive. But the only city ranked higher than Boston, for the best college town in Amherst.

    They have the UMass flagship out there, 30,000 plus, Amherst, College, Hampshire College, Smith College, Mt. Holyoke College, …. And Springfielf/Holyoke is the third largest city in the state and it a super mess. Its just real liberal out there, its kind of like mini-Vermont.

    The NB, MY HOMETOWN. New Beige, represent. whalers, …. Okay enough, super, super Democrat. SOCO Mas has the largest white unemployment numbers in the country and that was pre-recession. Just hope the staty home. Same for Fall River, born in Fall River.

  • proudgop

    I know Harvard and MIT don’t start till Feb 1st and BU is back

    not sure about BC or Northeastern?

    Brown will do well in Attelborro, Seekonk, Tauton

  • EagleWatcher

    She reminds me of Geraldine Ferraro except without all the personal warmth.

    I can’t believe the Dems were stupid enough to run her. The Dems think that Mass. voters will vote for any wooden stick as long as it has a D after its name.

    Big mistake….

  • Swamp_Yankee

    good for Brown.

  • Aaron Gardner

    You would be surprised how many democrats read RedState. I assume after their 24 hour wait, a few will come in and pee on my rug for that. ;)

  • The Pennsylvania Republican

    “But the message is being sent. If you can

  • Mary Beth

    “Martha Coakley is precisely the kind of person we need architecting this nation’s health care. Caring. Compassionate..

    …”Middlesex District Attorney Martha Coakley blocked the donation of Costin’s heart after he was diagnosed clinically brain-dead,” writes Sean P Murphy of the Globe, “to preclude any possibility that his assailant’s lawyer might contend at the trial that Costin died of a pre-existing heart condition rather than the beating.”…

    Martha Coakley is willing to let innocent 3rd parties die to ensure her success as a DA. This sort of attitude is just gobsmackingly vile beyond belief. ”

    http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=297044

    //

    She MUST not win.

  • Raven

    Scott Brown is DOOM!
    Ms Coakley’s on Fire!
    The Fires of DOOM!!!

  • aesthete

    And we have, haven’t we? If we lose this one, I, for one, will blame the “Tea Party” ladies up in MA fragging Brown.

  • sharonmcp

    From a thread where they’re in a complete panic now that they’re realizing they’re in danger of losing “Teddy’s Seat” to an Eeeeeeeeevil Republican’.

    Redstate thinks this ones in the bag (1+ / 0-)

    let’s prove them wrong. Kudos to them for ignoring that idiot Limbaugh and conducting a serious campaign for Haiti relief.

    Patriotism consists not in waving the flag, but in striving that our country shall be righteous as well as strong. ~James Bryce

    by california keefer on Thu Jan 14, 2010 at 10:31:12 PM PST

  • Third Street

    We paid every BIT of attention to Rush, and I for one agree with every single solitary word he’s said regarding Haiti.

    Not only are we giving, we don’t need to go to the White House website to be told how.

  • clintonformccain

    Coakley is a college classmate of mine and friend of my wife’s. If any of my RedState friends mention to my wife how I’m voting on Tuesday, I’ll deny it.

    I intend to tell my wife, “Yes I voted. You told me to vote for Martha, right?”

    On analyzing this race, I would caution against a Republican vs Democrat filter. IMO, it’s a riptide of “mad as heck and not going to take it any more.” What the politicians haven’t figured out is that, in the internet era, we see their pharma lobbyist fundraisers. We see their vote selling. We see their arrogance and scorn for their constituents.

    The issue is honesty and competence. Some day, some party is goign to figure this out. It certainly wasn’t Bush and Cheney who lost all grasp of the optics of their perceived arrogance. Likewise Obama. Just utterly clueless at how the back room deals and the lies are perceived.

    I’ve already said I am shocked this race is competitive. I almost feel sorry for politicians caught it this riptide. It’s gonna hurt.

  • http://xmmlbchat.blogspot.com katesmith

    May count in this race as well. Voters in Mass. have already experienced universal health care and it’s a gigantic failure. I see Obama sent a video up there emphasizing the election would be about HIS health care program. Perfect. Just what they need. Also I think people are sick of Deval Patrick. The people there are broke. As I understand it, Brown isn’t campaigning on social issues, more financial and others. They may feel Brown has a strong character and won’t reverse his positions so quickly as Obama has.. Voters may see Brown as not as entrenched with Beltway lobbyists and liars.

  • Return to Revolution

    Benedict Arlen and Sestak’s ties to radical Islam (by virtue of his indifference to it) make it all the more important to get Toomey in.

    Even gives me hope about my own district, which has been safe dem for a long time.

  • Sundayjack

    Dude worked his BUTT off. 18 hour days. At the risk of painting myself as anything but a grizzled cynic, when I see people rallying around him and when I see polls moving, I honestly get a little choked up. We still have to endure four more days of constant negative ads, and I’ll be enormously disappointed if Scott loses, but it won’t be for lack of work.

    This is what Republican candidates need to be doing in 2010. Working.

  • Sundayjack

    Delivered to my sister – unenrolled. A big glossy piece with Scott Brown photoshopped in a brown UPS-like uniform, along with the catch line “What Can Brown Do To You.”

    Frankly, I think it was a lousy piece. But, even her mailings are now shrill.

  • jackhammer

    If your brother votes Kennedy, then no real problem…..just don’t get in the fight again, or he will make sure to go out no matter what the weather, otherwise let apathy take over….apathatic coakly (I left the E out because she misplaced it in MassachusettEs) voters are good for brown….

  • jackhammer

    I was even surprised to see quite a few in Haverhill, which I am guessing is about as blue as blue gets….but in the areas where property values have remained steady, I would estimate there to be 70% Brown signs….you still see a lot of saabs with coakely.

    If you are phoning,a nd you get any male on the line, mention Brown in front of Fenway and in SouthE asking for the votes…..most of them are seeing Coakely as Nancy Pelosi when I talk to them….

  • jackhammer

    Chances are you moved ot NH…..

  • jackhammer

    and seeing 10 people in the cold rain holding Scott Brown signs,a nd for a minute I was not sure if he was an R or a D…so I blackberried it, and then I got that same “choked up feeling”…..like “we might actually win this….. He worked his A** off for this, he deserves it.

  • capeindependent

    Maybe if Brown pulls out this win we could have Obams, Reids and Pelosis reaction on hidden CSPAN camera. Gosh what it would be to be be a fly on the wall. To hear their reaction and comment…just to see their faces!

  • swami7774

    MA is not turning red, perhaps not even purple. It’s just reflecting what’s going on in the country–massive, and growing, opposition to BIG government. It can happen, even here.
    But it can, and probably will, change. Let’s say Brown wins on Tuesday. He immediately becomes the Democrats’ top Senate target in ’12. That’s a presidential year, when the turnout in MA will probably be a good 25% higher than it will be next week.
    This is a perfect storm for Brown. If he wins, this will be his easiest election.

  • dellbabe68

    I can’t believe they’d allow the highjacking of their phrase like that.

  • 10ksnooker

    Brown needs a 10 point lead to be outside the ACORN range.

    Remember Coleman, what’s the odds that every close vote call went to the stupid candidate?

    About the same as every temperature error was favoring the AGW Fraud.

  • structuralpoke

    “I’m gonna sing the Doom song”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqcn_TPu4qQ

  • Castor

    I had my secretary down here in Per

  • capeindependent

    I think Tuesday will be record turnout in MA. People are polarized here for the first time. Guess the people want to get their “Hope and Change” they were promised in 08. Remember ” Together We Can” vote with our minds to please our hearts and send Coakley packing. She has run a despicable campaign and should hide in shame regardless who wins on Tuesday. When you compare Brown to Coakley she doesn’t have enough class to pump gas into his truck.

  • Sundayjack

    I thought the same thing.

  • joliefleurs

    Jan 19th, do you think folks will still turn out? We will really need him even if this thing goes through, so I hope so.

  • Sundayjack

    However, if you’re looking for another encouraging sign, the Suffolk University poll was taken Monday-Wednesday. Pajamas Media did an automated poll Thursday night showing Brown up 15%. We don’t know much about the PJM poll, but we DO know that Brown’s surge didn’t begin and end on Wednesday. I’d LOVE to see the daily results, because his money bomb was Monday, and his “not the Kennedy seat” line was on Tuesday night. That’s also when Martha’s negative barrage began. And the Meehan push of McCormack came on Wednesday. If Suffolk’s Mon-Wed poll shows Brown up 4 points, then I would contend that is now LOW.

  • jeffreywturner

    I will be grateful for a victory, but we need to distinguish between a realignment and a backlash.

  • jeffreywturner

    Absolutely. If Dems struggle in a deep blue state like Taxachussets, how do they expect to win in a purple state like Pennsylvania?

  • http://www.mysimplehomegarden.com tbaleno

    Yes, I think they will even be more angry. There are still other thing on zeros agenda that we want stopped.

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