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DeVore Surging in CA Republican Senate Primary?

California Dreamin'

By: Aaron Gardner (Diary)  |  April 23rd, 2010 at 06:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

…it’s overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month.

I was looking over some of the Senate Polling from RCP this afternoon and when I got to the CA Republican primary I saw something that sparked my interest. Chuck DeVore has had a sustained surge in support in the latest rounds of polling.

So what does a 4-5 point surge in support actually mean? What can we really take away from these polls, and how trust worthy is the information we are getting?

The polls themselves – specifically the SUSA and Capitol Weekly – don’t appear to be bad to me, granted I am not a polling expert. Both seem to have a decent size pool and both are of likely voters. This isn’t to say that these polls are faultless, just that their faults fall within what one would expect.

Let’s walk through these a bit and I will explain a.) why I believe the momentum is shifting in this race and b.) why Chuck DeVore needs your support today more than ever.

First Campbell and Fiorina*, both appear to have reached their ceilings of support. The Capitol Weekly poll showed support for Fiorina at a low and can probably be looked at as an out-lier for Fiorina. That bit of out-lier information, and what I will address next, could prove to be a glimpse into how this race is breaking as we get closer to the June primary election.

Here is what I am seeing; SUSA and CW both have Campbell tracking in the low-mid 30′s, as well, they both have DeVore picking up steam with a 6 point bounce to 14%. The two polls diverge on Carly. This leads me to believe that both polls are probably showing the effects of movement in this race.

The only candidate benefiting from this movement is DeVore. One possible reason for this movement is the newly released radio ads the DeVore campaign put up on April 7th, just prior to these polls being conducted.

As people hear the conservative message that Chuck DeVore brings to the voters of California, his position in the polls will increase. Campbell and Fiorina have peaked.

It’s time to back the conservative.

I will leave you with a quote from our own Neil Stevens of Unlikely Voter fame…

The math is complicated, but with two consecutive polls at 14%, the probabilities compound and it’s overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month.

DeVore gaining traction as we approach the final month.

Give to Chuck!

Help him make the key push in May in order to win in June.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted at My Blog

* The Fiorina campaign knows this to be true as well. They tipped their hand when they attacked Josh trevino by name after a press release by the DeVore Campaign highlighting the Capitol West Poll.

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  • IJB

    I am, of course, discouraged that Campbell is still in the lead (I’d really rather have Fiorina than him).

    But I am encouraged that DeVore has “broken out” of his under-10% prison, and is now getting up to about 15% support. (This looks similar to what Martin Stutzman has managed in IN…)

    If DeVore can keep the trendline up, and get his numbers over 20% in the next couple of weeks, I think all bets will be off on this race, and it will be a truly unpredictable contest. Stay tuned…

  • The_Only_Woj

    that he gave on the Dennis Miller show. wants to make it safe again to call Barbara Boxer ma’am.

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    None of these people could pull off what you could call a “surge.” This will be a matter of the last one of the three to wind up in the end zone when time expires.

    That being said, I think any of them can beat Babs, and she knows it.

  • disintelligentsia

    That’s been the problem with the leadership – they keep on thinking they have to go “liberal lite” in order to win, but all that does is send voters to the Dems because with the Dems they at least know what they’re getting. We need to offer them an alternative to the liberal “vision” – a true conservative. Voters want to be able to *choose* their leadership and you can’t choose when there aren’t competing choices. We have to send them Devore so they have a *real* choice – the welfare nanny state liberal vision or the conservative vision of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Conservatives shouldn’t have to “holder their noses” and vote for the least evil alternative.

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    but you have a very dispirited and cynical Republican party, what’s left of it, after the last few years of dealing with impersonators in Sacramento, right up to the top, the Governator himself, who squandered so much to get so little.

  • disintelligentsia

    We’ve done “liberal lite” to death out here (Ahnuld!)! We need to motivate the base and bring back the people who have been sitting it out because they can’t find a candidate they can believe in. We can only do this with a real conservative like Devore – and now is the best political climate in which to do it!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    As you point out, parties don’t win or lose elections, candidates do.

  • Adjoran

    and perhaps for the right reason – people look closer at Campbell and Fiorina and realize there is a third option.

    And two consecutive polls by separate organizations showing similar shifts are quite likely true.

    It’s pretty silly, though, to pretend there is no difference between Fiorina or Campbell and Boxer. There’s a huge difference – Boxer is an extreme leftist. Susan Collins would be far preferable in the seat.

    Those who refuse to see that have apparently adopted a code of ideological purity for themselves, which is fine, and expect the rest of us to adopt it, which is not.