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Three Points in Chuck DeVore’s Favor

And more signs of Fiorina's collapse.

By: Aaron Gardner (Diary)  |  May 14th, 2010 at 05:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

After reading this morning’s post from Erick on the CA Sen Rasmussen poll, I checked out the crosstabs and read a few other interesting articles – one of which is a Poll of Tea Partiers. What I read seems to support the theory that the late movement and momentum is in Chuck DeVore’s favor.

First point – The Rasmussen crosstabs.

Lets take a peek…

Chuck DeVore has the youth (18-29 year olds), with 47% versus Campbell’s 40%, and Fiorina’s 35%. Chuck ranks highest in Republican and conservative support, at 89%/70%, with Campbell at 88%/69% and Fiorina at 87%/66%, this while still beating Fiorina with moderates and Democrats.

Looking at the different economic demographics, it appears that DeVore has the strongest middle class support of the three Republicans. Chuck DeVore is also tied in the “very unfavorables,” at 12%, with Campbell while Fiorina’s nearly doubles their negatives with 21%.

As Joshua Trevino said in a press release “Fiorina performs weakly across the board, without a single lead in any of the poll’s demographic groups.”

I think we will score this as one point in favor of Chuck DeVore.

Second point – The Pleasanton Tea Party email poll.

Granted, I don’t know the sample or methodology, but questions of accuracy aside for a moment … What’s in this poll of 10000 could prove to be a glimpse into the shifts in the last days of this race.

The poll results?

Chuck DeVore 54%
Carly Fiorina 21%
Tom Campbell 12%

I highly doubt these are the margins we are looking at today, but the poll does reflect Poizner’s overtaking of Whitman, which leads me to believe it to be valuable in gauging movement.

It’s also good to note that Carly has been trying to woo this particular Tea Party group and it’s 10,000 members, apparently to no avail.

Again, point in favor of Chuck DeVore.

Third, and final, point – Carly is broke.

Well, her campaign is at least. The LA Times brings news of Carly loaning her campaign another $1.1 Million, this on top of the $2.5 Million she previously loaned her campaign – which was the same $2.5 Million she claimed as Cash On Hand at the end of the last fundraising quarter.

If monetary donations can be used to divine candidate enthusiasm, Carly could be in serious jeopardy.

Point in favor of Chuck DeVore

So, as we enter the sprint to primary day, I see three points in Chuck DeVore’s favor.

A strong showing in the Rasmussen Poll confirming positive movement for Chuck while Fiorina falters.

Solid support in the Tea Party movement.

Opponents struggling with late fundraising.

Chuck DeVore is the conservative in the race, Chuck DeVore can beat Boxer, Chuck DeVore can be a Senator.

Aaron Gardner

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  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    …but also understand that the California GOP is lining up behind a mythic battle of uber-women. In their minds, yes I know, but still, the operative word, always, in California, is “mythic”. When the dust settles, as EE has already stated, the first duty is to defeat Boxer, the second, to defeat Campbell.

  • Aaron Gardner

    The “mythic” nature of that meme is compounded by DeVore having larger support with women than Carly does. 36% for DeVore vs. 34% for Fiorina. ;)

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    so I’m glad you did first. The mythic uber women thing.

    Carly Fiorina’s hair should have grown back by now.

    I’m just sayin’.

  • scarlos

    Wow. I mean, this is a state where the 18-29 demographic is probably 65% Minority, at least (although for likely voters the total is probably more like 40%).

    Well, if this turns out to be an accurate reflection on the state as a whole, things are looking up for California Republicans

  • calical

    1. The Tea Party poll is not a scientific poll. They send a bunch of emails out to their list and people answered it. This is how polls used to work before the advent of scientific polling (usually done by magazines with their subscribers), and this is not considered a legitimate method.

    2. Carly added more money into her campaign. That does not mean she is broke. It just means she is putting more money in to intensify her efforts. Considering she has some ground to make up to Campbell, that is prudent. Another 1.1 million in Carly’s coffers is not good news for Chuck.

    3. General election polls don’t matter much at this stage. People aren’t really paying enough attention to the relative merits of the possible republican candidates. The fact that Boxer can’t break 50 is significant, though, because people know who she is. I’d bet that Boxer would poll similarly against a made-up name as she would against her three actual opponents. Furthermore, statistically speaking, one point doesn’t mean a whole lot anyway. It cannot be said with a particularly high degree of confidence that DeVore’s lead is not due to sampling error.

    (Disclosure: I am a Carly supporter. I am a Carly volunteer. I am a longtime Red State lurker. I am a down-the-line conservative Republican who wants what is best for the movement and the nation. I trust that my polite expressions of dissent will be welcome.)

  • calical

    3b. Internals don’t matter much either for these purposes. While its always fun to break things down, and useful for targeting demographics, the totals are the totals (ie. only one point between them in the general, or, in the primary, the race going from 34/27/14 to the very similar 35/24/15 in the last two and a half weeks), and if the totals do not show big movement or big differences, there isn’t big movement or big differences on the aggregate. For each positive thing to point out, there is something negative that makes it average out to the small movement we are seeing. Also, if the entire poll is of limited use (such as general election polls this far out), the internals don’t matter much just like the overall results don’t matter much.

  • Aaron Gardner

    You should have kept lurking.

  • SteveLA

    That’s the real question, and the answer is NO.

    He can’t raise money.
    He’s not generating excitement out here in CA outside of the base, and the base can’t elect him alone.

    Mr. DeVore should stay in the race through the primary, but once that’s over, it’s on to what’s really important:


    BEAT BABS

  • Aaron Gardner

    As I pointed out in the post, Chuck has more support from Republicans, Democrats, and moderates, than Carly did.

    The only candidate that meets your description is Campbell, and I am pretty sure you haven’t gone that far off the reservation. ;)

  • calical

    I never said nothing matters except my opinion of Carly Fiorina, or anything remotely like it. Who would actually do better against Boxer is an important question, but this data does little to answer it. I would love to have some hard, scientifically-reliable evidence as to who would be the better candidate against Boxer, but alas, it does not exist yet. We don’t always have the knowledge we would like to have. Yes, this means we’ll have to speculate as to how various aspects of a candidate will go over with voters as the campaign wears on, but alas, that’s the best we’ve got. Similarly, if there really was a very large shift to Chuck or from Carly, rather than the rather small changes of the past couple weeks, I would acknowledge it, but it hasn’t happened.

    I expressed my support for Carly to reveal my own biases for all to see, but numbers are numbers. My opinion of any candidate’s quality was not part of any argument I actually made.

    It seems you are not interested in discussing this matter with me, however, so I will not persist in attempting to discuss it with you at this time.

  • SteveLA

    Aaron

    Campbell will probably take the nomination, and he actually does tend to have a better chance of beating BABS because he is a Liberal Republican, at least in CA.

    Facing facts about CA, it’s probably more to the Left on the issues you care about in terms of general population than Mass, and the Leftness of Campbell will attract Democrats fed up with Babs.

    I’m not trilled about Campbell, he made my blood boil in the debate about banning guns possession for those on the TSA watch list, but that sort of crud and other stances on issues like Prop 8 will open up his chances during the General election. Democrats will have a much harder time demonizing him as they are very good at when the Republican base out here nominates a true conservative, and looses at the state wide level.

    I will hold my nose when voting in the General for him.

  • michiganwolverine

    Voting for who you think would do the best for California is most important. I am sure that once the primary was over, republicans and independents who wanted a sound California would then focus on what Devore could do to help their problems. Just because Campbell is ahead by a bit now, does not mean that he will be ahead come November. Sound principles give sound results.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I actually agree with most of what you said, but I think you cede too much to the left in your general electoral thinking.

    DeVore provides an opportunity to create greater voter enthusiasm on the right side of the divide while still claiming just as much of the left and moderate voters.

    We can extrapolate from that to see that Fiorina would probably lose in the general not being able to secure the base and moderates, Campbell would probably win using more moderate and dem support, and DeVore could probably win with a unified party base, moderates and disenfranchised dems.

    I know you don’t see it, but by continually ceding ground on your right for gains on your left you decrease voter enthusiasm for your own side.

  • tracycolorado

    Chuck Devore has my vote !

    Steve Poizner has my vote !

    Mark Reed has my vote !

  • Cheryl

    I like you SteveLA, but you have a one sided snapshot picture of this state.

    We voted for Arnold because everyone said he was the only one who could win. Look what it got us. I’m not falling for that again, nor are the people I talk to and that includes a lot of moderates.

    Just how active are you in the CAGOP?

  • Achance

    He did the bravest, if dumbest, thing that any Republican since Reagan has done with his initiatives against the unions. When he actually “gave ‘em Hell” like all the Republicans just love to egg you on to do, he looked around and he didn’t have a friend in the whole damned World. Something that happens real often when you do something brave and expect Republicans to support you. OK, once bitten, twice shy; since you don’t have any reliable friends, you do your best to get along with your enemies; they’re more trustworthy.

  • SteveLA

    Aaron

    Well having lived in CA for a very long time, and observing what the Democrats will throw at a politician that stands for what DeVore. You won’t change your mind I’d guess, but if your goal is actually throwing Babs out and not just sending a message or some other “stuff”, you’d understand that CA is Liberal and not turning to the “true conservative” cause, at least on social issues.

    Consider what DeVore stances are and how Liberal the CA general electorate really is.

    Hard core Pro-life in a state that can’t even pass a parental notification law? That I voted for that initiative by the way.

    Hard core in support of Prop 8, in a state with a very large and politically active gay population? Go read the CA R party platform which is as conservative as one that would seen in Texas, but does not reflect the views of the general population? Nope, but he sure is socially conservative.

    Hard core on immigration including support of laws that require illegals to return home before applying for legal immigration in state that has a very large and politically active Latino population? One that is now quite stirred up about AZ SB 1070?

    I’ve seen it for the last 4 or more election cycles. The CA R party machinery nominates “true conservatives” like Tom McClintock for state wide offices, and they loose…big time. The MSM, Unions, and all the liberal groups are loaded for bear and they will use all the money they have to destroy the R in the race. Campbell will be harder to destroy because he is a liberal R, DeVore because he will be under funded and for his stances on the issues will be an easy target to demonize and they will and they have in the past.

    Think start small, get even a nominal R like Campbell in office, work on him to get his views changed to be more conservative, at least he’ll listen, BABS will demand you call her Senator.

    I will be holding my nose when I vote in the primary, and I will not be sending messages in the form of a wasted vote for a “true conservative” who stands no chance of winning the primary or for that matter the general election.

  • Cheryl

    and I don’t see this. I do see a bunch of Republicans who are not going to be pushed into voting for the supposed “only one who can win”, not after Arnold.

  • SteveLA

    Cheryl

    I live in So Cal, in a R district with a R congress critter who is pretty darn good, a R assembly member who is new, taking his dad’s old seat. My State Senator has termed out and I frankly don’t have a lot of respect for his wing of the R party and hope we get someone who is more interested in doing something instead of legislating against tanning beds and the other social conservative nonsense he has worked on in the past instead of being a budget hawk.

    So active, actually no, my local R types at the state level are way more to the right that I like. My R congress critter is just about right and does his job without being a Tom Delay sort of R., ends up not too bad.

  • JamesSmith130

    The only one I think can’t win is Carly. Her baggage from HP and her overall weak campaigning skills will crush her in a matchup with one of the nastiest, ugliest, and like it or not effective campaigners. But if she wins the primary, I’ll back her 100%.

    Although Tom Campbell may be the rare “Republican” whom I probably wouldn’t support in a general election this year. That guy isn’t a RINO, he is a Democrat. But he’ll probably win w/o the conservative base.

  • JamesSmith130

    but as you clearly stated, he won’t need our support to win.

  • SteveLA

    The CA R base will ether sit this one out or something.

    Look to see who Pete Wilson and the old line R’s who actually won state wide election do in terms of endorsements. McClintock who can’t win a state wide election, even for Lt. Governor, is supporting Posiner and I assume DeVore.

  • IJB

    Bottom line: Arnie is dumb. The prop’s he was pushing might have actually passed if he had been *way* smarter about it, and realized that *timing* is important to something like what he was trying.

    Instead, he was convinced that as a “Hollywood star” he could convince people to do anything for him.

    If he had been a smarter politician, he would have contrived some confrontation with the unions just before a primary election to make them look bad, and *then* put those props on the ballot in time for the primary election (lower turnout, better odds of success).

    His whole “special election” gambit was doomed from the start.

    So, no – I don’t think we’re being “unfair” to Arnie for messing that whole thing up…

  • IJB
  • IJB
  • Achance

    I was talking to some of his L/R people back then, and he was getting a lot of “go fer it” and “give ‘em Hell’ advice. It was dumb and doomed, but it was brave and he shouldn’t be excoriated as some kind of wuss/RINO; he got burned and decided to pretty much check out. It happens. Can’t say I haven’t lost my ardor a few times; with Republicans for friends, you don’t need many enemies.

  • SteveLA

    Art

    The Governator had the line item veto pen, still does, but he refused to use it.

    Old fashioned brass knuckles politics would have seen Arnie cutting the legs out from under a few legislators using his line item veto to show he meant business and then put up his plan. Dumb move on Arnie’s part.

    Of course Arnie wanted to run for Senator so he didn’t want to make anyone unhappy so, go along to get along and he failed.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • Achance

    As I said, I was talking to them some. I thought they should have picked a court fight with the unions over their dues schemes. Probably would have gotten something good in the federal district and certainly would have gotten something good in the 9th. Leftist and wrong as it often is, the 9th is really into that individual rights stuff, so they’d have wanted to look at those dues expenditures. Get their dues collection enjoined, THEN go for their vital parts! But then I do this stuff for a living.

  • joayn
  • joayn

    himself to be a conservative. That’s why people overwhelmingly supported him. They were sick and tired of liberal Grey Davis and his shenanigans. The atmosphere in CA at the time was extremely toxic, very similar to the national mood now.

    I also think if Fiorina wins the primary, the Independents won’t turn out for her like they would for DeVore, and Boxer will win it. Same with Campbell.

    People here are sick of and tired of not getting the real deal to vote for, meaning someone who is who they say they are and have a record to prove it. Both Fiornia and Campbell fall into the category of the sterotypical opportunistic politicians.

    If there was a moderate with an uncompromised past and a clean record, he or she would probably win against Boxer. But Fiorina and Campbell just have too much baggage. Boxer will grind up either one and win it, no problem. Because Independents just won’t turn out for either one in significant numbers.

  • joayn

    And she’s tanking in the polls. Poisner has been going up and Meg is going down. I believe the latest poll was taken after their debate and Meg was not impressive. She also would not support Arizona’s 1070, and that hurt her a lot.

    Hence her new commercial where she rabidly is against illegal immigration and amnesty. What a tool.

  • joayn

    “I would love to have some hard, scientifically-reliable evidence as to who would be the better candidate against Boxer, but alas, it does not exist yet.”

    Yeah it does. Chuck DeVore’s record. AND he’s voted in every election, unlike some people running for the CA senate seat who’s BFF is John McCain. Two strikes right there IMO.

  • SteveLA

    joayn

    I’ll take that up with Governor McClintock, whoops I mean Lt. Governor McClintock, whoops I mean finally Congress Critter McClintock.

    Yea let’s elect a Governor who is for removing the 3/4 barrier for raising taxes, makes perfect sense…NOT!

    Hey but I sure Posiner’s not a RINO, just an idiot who wants to raise my taxes.

  • joayn
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You tease him on Twitter, he answers, and is great about it.

    It’s a little thing, but it shows he’s paying attention to us. We need that in the Senate.

  • joayn

    They’re imperative for fundraising.

  • joayn

    evrybody but him breaks down races this way.

  • drothgery

    We aren’t going to win it without a lot of luck. DeVore’s too much of an unknown conservative not to get demonized by the general election, Campbell’s too liberal to prevent people voting for the real thing rather than Democrat-lite, and Carly’s too poor of a campaigner to thread the needle.

  • scarlos

    IIRC, the 18-29 demographic was Brown’s strongest in MA as well.

    Though this might just be because the over 65 demographic in both states are comprised mostly of the 60s-age hippies, and they’re distorting the figures a bit. Still, it’s a good sign for us.

  • Adjoran

    that “Chuck DeVore has the youth (18-29 year olds), with 47% versus Campbell

  • joayn

    I was only pointing out that endorsements sometimes don’t mean anything. I haven’t decided who I’m going to vote for yet but I do think Meg is a tool.

    By the way, it’s P-O-I-S-N-E-R, not Posiner. Just sayin’.

  • Adjoran

    At least, no one with a nodding familiarity with statistics is going to put much stock in the sub-groups of a poll of 500 with a MOE of 4.5% on the whole group. Particularly not in differences of a point or two . . .

    Frankly, this isn’t “poll analysis” at all – it’s spin for a candidate.

    I mean, what are the odds that an objective analysis would mirror in every emphasis and conclusion the “analysis” by one campaign?

    Desperation . . .

  • joayn
  • Adjoran

    Sorry, I interrupted your lesson on how to win friends and influence people. Carry on!

  • joayn

    Seriously, give me a link.

    I heard a few months ago that Meg wants to get rid of the ballot initiative process because that just creates too many problems with the budget and spending issues. She thinks the peeps have too much power via the initiatives and Sacramento can’t solve problems that way. Have you heard of this?

  • joayn
  • JamesSmith130

    I think Fiorina has poor campaign skills and makes too many gaffes (see her performance as a McCain spokesman) and her departure from HP can be used against her (much of it unfairly).

    Boxer is one of the nastiest campaigners. She will throw the kitchen sink and is an expert at puke politics. She smeared Matt Fong in 1998 in a race which Boxer was trailing throughout and should have been defeated. I’m not at all confident that a novice candidate like Fiorina will be able to go up against that in what is still a deep blue state. DeVore would have a better chance. As would Campbell.

  • Adjoran

    Including Mickey, of Kaus.

    But DeVore would have to first win the primary. He isn’t going to. He doesn’t have the support, no matter how much “Big MO” our Josh, Erick, and Aaron can imagine they perceive after staring at numbers on a monitor for long enough. He doesn’t have the money. He doesn’t have the time.

    In normal days, the trailing candidate might drop out, especially to avoid giving it to Campbell. But staying in is reinforced by national conservatives whose fervent cheering and declarations of support haven’t translated into the kind of money needed to be truly competitive.

    Most disturbing is the increasing tendency of conservatives to write off people with “only” 80-85% lifetime ACU ratings, no matter how untested the replacements. Ronald Reagan would be appalled, especially at the way it has become toxic to even be thought of as friendly to anyone on the apostate list, as in “Fiorina is a friend of McCain.” It’s getting like Stalinist Russia around here – people need to fear even being seen as friendly with those who have been denounced.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that, Comrades.

  • JamesSmith130

    but in California he is considered a “right-winger” due to his stance against illegal immigration. Much of that state is just so far left. Any half-way decent Repub (not psuedo-Dem Arnold) starts out with 45% against him/her.

  • JamesSmith130

    I disagree on Campbell. He actually probably would beat Boxer, but what’s the point. We get a less shrill Dimocrat. (Campbell is not a RINO, but a full fledged Dim) Not worth my time.

  • JamesSmith130

    I don’t think it is a likelihood, this is a deep blue state, and Boxer is just one of the nastiest campaigners. She is really one of the most unpleasant people (not just her views) to be around in Congress.

    But DeVore very possibly can turn Boxer’s art of puke politics against her by running as a principled politician. And since DeVore actually knows about politics (unlike Fiorina), he will be better prepared to respond to Boxer. DeVore will have to define himself quickly, and take the edge of his positions (e.g. possibly run an early ad in So Cal touting the contribution of legal immigrants, etc.) before they can be demonized by Boxer.

  • IJB

    (I can’t figure out what it means otherwise…)

  • Adjoran

    But that is inconsistent with the claim Aaron made in reply to the question – “No IJB, 47% of all 18-29 year olds.”

    Having a higher % of YOUR support coming from young voters is NOT necessarily a good thing, because they tend not to turn out as faithfully as older voters. In any case, the subgroups cannot be viewed as statistically provident as the entire sample, so any attempt at analysis of the demographic trends based on a single poll is rather fruitless.

  • Adjoran

    Boxer is stuck around 45%, but Obama’s approval is still +12% in California, at around 60%.

    The odds are things are going to get worse in California between now and November, so both of those numbers should fall. DeVore could most certainly have a chance to win statewide, and if he won the nomination the money would come in.

    His problem is that he is no position to win the nomination.

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    It’s not conservatives’ fault Carly Fiorina can float herself a $1.1M loan when she thinks she needs it to push herself across the finish line or rescue a campaign that has plateaued.], at best.

    She is an unproven commodity who can make herself appear to be anyone we think she should be if she spends enough money to tell us so.

    And, once again, if you want to see dissing, wait until she pretends the Tea Party and Sarah Palin don’t even exist when the general rolls around. Because nobody runs away from conservatives faster than RINOs who have been conned into thinking they can’t win statewide elections if they stand too close to wingers. Even Ronald Reagan never did that.

  • Adjoran

    It’s more like, “put down the shooter and step away from the bar.”

    I’m not a Fiorina devotee, I just hate to see us waste the chance to defeat Boxer with Campbell, whose connections to terrorist sympathizers are disturbing. If DeVore had a realistic chance, that would be a different kettle of fish.

    But we don’t seem to be presenting any rational argument here about how he makes up over 20% in three weeks. His rise from 9% in March to 15% in April was impressive, but now it is May and he is still at 15%, not 20% or even 18% showing real momentum. So his backers delve deep into the crosstabs of polls hoping to find something positive and present their wishful thinking as a “trend.”

    It’s not. But I’m willing to be convinced – by rational argument. When was the last time somebody came back from a poor third in three weeks to win a primary? Where are the donations that could fuel such a surge? SHOW ME THE MONEY!

    Or would you just rather lose? Does personal animus towards Fiorina mean you’d rather have Boxer or Campbell in the seat?

  • Aaron Gardner

    This isn’t rocket science … there are three match-ups in the Rassmussen poll, DeVore vs. Boxer, Carly vs. Boxer, and Campbell vs. Boxer.

    Crosstabs are provided for each match-up.

    DeVore has greater support vs. Boxer in the 18-29 demo than either Fiorina or Campbell.

    So no, Adjoran, it doesn’t add up to 122%., you just don’t know what you are talking about.

  • IJB
  • Aaron Gardner

    That doesn’t change anything. The poll was never a primary poll, so I am not sure what Adjoran’s beef is.

  • SteveLA

    I’m not sure if this new poll by Rasmussen has been chewed to death or not, but it looks to have come out Friday with the actual polling done May 12th.

    Carlie is indeed fading against BABS….45 to 38

    DeVore trails 46 to 40

    Campbell trails 42 to 41

    The cross tabs are available to subscribers only.

    In the race for second place, I think we will see DeVore’s support firming up, but I don’t think he will be able to pull ahead of Campbell, and Campbell seems to give a better chance of beating BABS.

    Ms. Cleo was not consulted for this analysis.

  • Aaron Gardner

    It’s like certain people don’t even bother reading my post before replying.

  • SteveLA

    Aaron

    Well dates of and links to polls are helpful for those of us who aren’t quite as smart as you.

    Here’s what I found really interesting, the favorable/unfavorable ratings.

    Twenty-five percent (25%) of California voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Boxer, while 34% view her Very Unfavorably.

    Campbell is seen Very Favorably by 12% and Very Unfavorably by 12%.

    For Fiorina, Very Favorables are 13% and Very Unfavorables are 21%.

    DeVore earns Very Favorables of six percent (6%) and Very Unfavorables of 12%.

    Carlie’s Very Unfavorable numbers are way way high at 21 percent, DeVore and Campbell at 12 percent are what I would expect, but that 21 percent number really sticks out.

    Unless something major happens to derail Campbell, Carlie v DeVore is a race for second place. I won’t be surprised because of the Very Unfavorable numbers for Carlie to see DeVore take second as his base will come out and vote for him, not enough to beat Campbell, but….

    Ms. Cleo was not consulted for this analysis ether.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I just wonder because you are now making the same exact points I made in the article above.

    As far as links and dates, the link to the crosstabs would have only worked for subscribers so I didn’t put it in, the date I didn’t bother with because I linked to Erick’s post which specifies the date of the poll.

  • drothgery

    … she’s partly right. The initiative process, the supermajority rule for tax increases, and the massively gerrymandered legislative districts we’ve got (set up to give the Democrats almost — but not quite — the supermajority they need to pass tax hikes, so they can blame us for not raising taxes, but they can’t actually raise taxes and suffer the consequences of doing it) are about equally responsible for CA’s budget situation.

  • SteveLA

    I didn’t click through back to Erick’s.

    The rest of your post was a mixture of stuff lifted from DeVore’s campaign web site. I suppose that it’s a fine thing that you’re pushing DeVore, or spinning for him, but putting in the links to the poll which I did is helpful to those who aren’t buying your spin at face value and don’t click through to Erick’s earlier posts where links to the actual poll are posted. Even dates, which in the case of this poll would be released 14 May, poll taken 12 May would have been helpful.

    So a question for you, how Left is California, do you really think a “true conservative” like DeVore can win the General election? That’s the real question, can DeVore beat BABS?

    History out here in CA says that no underfunded “true conservative” can win a state wide election and NO Republican backed by the base who controls the R party machinery has won a state wide election in the last 4 election cycles. DeVore is not the guy to change history, he’s just not that charismatic.

    Again, I’m not a fan of Campbell, but it looks like he stands the best chance of beating BABS, trailing by 1 point now, 6 points for DeVore. I’ll leave it to you and others to “send messages” with your votes and all the rest of what ever you are trying to do, I’m focused on beating BABS.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Yes, I think DeVore can win.

    As far as the rest of your critique goes … if you don’t like my style or my sources, you could always venture out and write your own diary.

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    I just see the theatre playing out. Seems like a script that just has to get on stage.

  • vinick

    Chuck DeVore will never defeat Barbara Boxer…look at his website its a joke. Boxer will run ads highlighting his opposition to immigration (and opposition to Sotomayor), his support for allowing individuals on the no-fly list to buy assault weapons (that’s a gem), and his plan to ban Muslim student groups at UC Irvine. While those policies might play well to the RedState crowd, the voters of California are going to laugh him out of town. Tom Campbell will be California’s next United States Senator.

  • SteveLA

    Four Days 15 hours to come to this conclusion.

    Just one of the many idiot statements that Campbell has made a mistake on; guns and the no fly list.

    Until they change the US Constitution, placing someone on the no fly list should have very little to do with their second amendment rights. You know the concept of innocent until found guilty. And one more moronic statement that you made, nobody but you troll introduced what sort of weapons should be restricted from people on the no fly list.

    Fee fie foe fum…I smell the Troll doing his business on the carpet after 4 days 15 hours.

  • drothgery

    … that more often than not here in CA, that attitude gets you Bill Simon.

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    VB

  • swanie

    Don’t know if you’ve noticed but the dems are “licking their chops” hoping for FioRino or Campbell! Not only is DeVore the only one that polls favorably enough to beat Boxer, but the dems have their dirt and mud-slinging material stacked up and ready to roll on Carly AND Tom. With Carly it’s the HP scandal ready to heat up and Tom it’s practically everything he’s ever done!
    DeVore is clean and unflappable. He is principled and his actions match his rhetoric across the board. Of course the far left will disagree…but the growing conservative movement (even in San Francisco–amazing!) will propel him to victory. Also, WHEN he wins the primary, he automatically get’s financial support from the GOP and much more.

  • vinick

    I’m a die hard Republican who despises social conservatives and how they are destroying my party…guess that makes me a troll. I apologize for refusing to cede the Republican Party to evangelical Christians.

    “Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests”–how ironic.

  • JamesSmith130

    or heck to the Democrat Party for that matter if you hate us so much.

    Social conservatives and evangelical Christians are the heart of the Republican Party. If you don’t like us, then please leave.