After reading this morning's post from Erick on the CA Sen Rasmussen poll, I checked out the crosstabs and read a few other interesting articles - one of which is a Poll of Tea Partiers. What I read seems to support the theory that the late movement and momentum is in Chuck DeVore's favor.
First point - The Rasmussen crosstabs.
Lets take a peek...
Chuck DeVore has the youth (18-29 year olds), with 47% versus Campbell's 40%, and Fiorina's 35%. Chuck ranks highest in Republican and conservative support, at 89%/70%, with Campbell at 88%/69% and Fiorina at 87%/66%, this while still beating Fiorina with moderates and Democrats.
Looking at the different economic demographics, it appears that DeVore has the strongest middle class support of the three Republicans. Chuck DeVore is also tied in the "very unfavorables," at 12%, with Campbell while Fiorina's nearly doubles their negatives with 21%.
As Joshua Trevino said in a press release "Fiorina performs weakly across the board, without a single lead in any of the poll's demographic groups."
I think we will score this as one point in favor of Chuck DeVore.
Second point - The Pleasanton Tea Party email poll.
Granted, I don't know the sample or methodology, but questions of accuracy aside for a moment ... What's in this poll of 10000 could prove to be a glimpse into the shifts in the last days of this race.
The poll results?
Chuck DeVore 54%
Carly Fiorina 21%
Tom Campbell 12%
I highly doubt these are the margins we are looking at today, but the poll does reflect Poizner's overtaking of Whitman, which leads me to believe it to be valuable in gauging movement.
It's also good to note that Carly has been trying to woo this particular Tea Party group and it's 10,000 members, apparently to no avail.
Again, point in favor of Chuck DeVore.
Third, and final, point - Carly is broke.
Well, her campaign is at least. The LA Times brings news of Carly loaning her campaign another $1.1 Million, this on top of the $2.5 Million she previously loaned her campaign - which was the same $2.5 Million she claimed as Cash On Hand at the end of the last fundraising quarter.
If monetary donations can be used to divine candidate enthusiasm, Carly could be in serious jeopardy.
Point in favor of Chuck DeVore
So, as we enter the sprint to primary day, I see three points in Chuck DeVore's favor.
A strong showing in the Rasmussen Poll confirming positive movement for Chuck while Fiorina falters.
Solid support in the Tea Party movement.
Opponents struggling with late fundraising.