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Winning The Whitehouse And Taking Back The Congress: Part II!

Gallup Now Proves It?s Possible!

This is an update of a post I did a couple weeks ago before the polls caught up to my thinking. I might add that I was ridiculed and ignored when I posted the first installment of this. I guess the worm has turned as I predicted…hmmm!

Gallup has now proven that the dire predictions of the imminent doom of the Republican Party are not only premature, to the contrary, the opposite is truly possible!

I would add that those dire predictions have been used as an excuse for the sorry leadership the Republican Party has gotten from Congressman Tom Cole at the NRCC, John Ensign at the NRSC and Chairman of the RNC Mike Duncan.


It is my not so humble opinion that given the facts as they currently exist on the ground; if the Republican Party does not win back control of the Congress; if the Republican Party does not put John McGenius and Saracuda in the White House; if the Republican Party loses a single seat in either house of Congress: it will not be because the Democrats won anything, or because this is traditionally an election that favors the party out of the White House! It will not be because the American People rejected Conservatism or all the other mind numbing excuses to do nothing….it will be because of the tin ears of those we have in leadership and their steadfast refusal to do what it takes to win!

The blame will lie exclusively with those I’ve mentioned in Party and Congressional Leadership and with the McCain Campaign because of the atmosphere of pessimism that has been birthed by the left of center Washington elite of both parties and trumpeted by the so called objective press!

I’m sick of the Conventional wisdom that the Republican Party is doomed to lose in a landslide because it’s always been that way! This is an atmosphere I might add that has been nursed lovingly by the weasels in leadership who refuse to do anything to change their sorry condition in the hopes that they can escape the blame for the debacle they are creating! Well…I’ve got news for them…it ain’t gonna fly if I have any say about it!

According to an article from Gallup detailing a dramatic change in the polls just before John McGenius announced his stunningly brilliant selection of Sarah Palin for VPOTUS.:

Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive

First, prior to the Republican Convention:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

That’s within the margin of error folks…and it shows a proclivity of voters to vote for the Republican on an almost equal footing with that to vote for the Democrat. And again, That’s before the Republican VP was announced prior to the convention and the specific candidates do or say anything such as what I suggested in my earlier post.

Second, After the Republican Convention:

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

As Gallup’s long-term “generic ballot” trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.

Third, Congress’s current approval rating of 18%, (up from 9% recently) which is unheard of in the history of polling, signals an anti incumbent sentiment that could sweep Republicans back into power in breathtaking numbers if this is played right.

Forth, it get’s even better! Gallup’s most recent poll shows that only 36% of voters believe their specific member of Congress should be reelected. That, my friends, is way below the 51% or more that existed in 1994 and 2006.

So…Tom Cole, John Ensign and Mike Duncan…You’ve been given the Ried, Pelosi, Obama triumvirate’s heads on a platter. In fact, they’re on the platter despite you! The question now is…what will you do with this opportunity? Are we going to continue whining that Republicans should run for the hills this election cycle? Can we expect even more proclamations from Cole that this is a Democrat year and Republicans will be lucky if they only lose seats in the single digits? Can we expect another pity party from John Ensign because his Senate Colleagues refuse to open up their checkbooks to help those currently up for reelection in the Senate…or are we going to fight to win which is what you were put in leadership to do in the first place?!

Ohh and John McCain…Giving credit where credit is due…Since you have shaken this election to it’s core with unapologetic conservative performances at Saddleback and with your unapologetic pick of a Reaganite Governor to share your ticket…AND…Since Independents are moving your way in spite of…or because of these performances…are you really going to ruin it with talk of appointing Democrats to your Cabinet….or signing on to the gang of 16 capitulation to the Democrats on drilling? Will you be out there trumpeting how great it would be to saddle this economy with global cap and trade legislation? Or will you stick with the one that brought you to the ball and win this thing for all of us?

COMMENTS

  • aaronbg

    This is a great diary and I highly recommend.

    Well done brotha….;^)

  • Hammer2008

    running. Recall the LA runoff for what should have been a safe GOP seat? Hastert’s? The congressional candidiates have a responsability to go, to borrow a poker term, “all in”.

    There are several good republican challenger out there vying for a Dem seat. Those that are not succeeding need to learn and learn fast from those who are. Six weeks, six days to the election.

    Ace, I concur at great length. There should be no reason the GOP does not win the White House, come within a razor of winning the House and holding the line in the Senate. Despite the leadership of the NRCC, NRSC and RNC.

    • aceintx

      If we’d quit looking to historical models and concentrate on how we can win we’d all be a lot better off

      • aceintx

        If we’d quit looking to historical models and concentrate on how we can win we’d all be a lot better off

  • gamecock

    Unabashed, unapologetic conservatism works every time is tried. McCain went Reagan with Palin just when voters got ATTENTIVE (although screaming Rev Wright get attention as well, and way ahead of the usual McGoverite-Dukakis landslide defeat schedule).

    Ridicule? Join the small club. I have been preaching victory against the so-called “democratic year” and hostile “environment” since Dec 06-Feb-07 thru yesterday.

    One look at my archive will show you the lone rooster heralding the facts i have seen in every election cycle since 1980: known libs lose.

    We have won the last 7 of 10 pres elections yet Gallup only shows hints in falls before Election DAYS.

    Americans make their choices on Election Day. One day. And they know they can live their lives for 46 months and look up and spot the lib in the last two months.

    Great blog fellow poll maker. Any fool can rad polls and say aha! every four years.

    You and I make sure the polls shift and we win.

    Of course, the polls will tighten as the msm gives it one last chance to fool America but Sat-Sun before Election Day they will crave credibility and….

    • aceintx

      my focus is more on the Congress at the moment however…

      I agree…the more liberal the Dem candidate for POTUS is and can be demonstrated to be so…The Republican always wins…

      My beef is with the Congressional weenies who gave up the fight early last summer and trumpeted the imminent doom of the Republican chances in Congress instead of working to find a way to change the dynamic! My thing is this…no matter what the outcome of this election…Cole, and Ensign need to be retired!

      • gamecock

        She emboldens the inner Reaganite in these weenie candidates and she instantly improved the face of the GOP overall. McCain went a got the kind of Republican America loves and pines for!

  • CTmom

    It is so frustrating how the liberal media is controlling the political conversation and not raising important issues about energy and the financial mess.

    If McCain tries to do the “I care, too” thing with the debates it’s going to be confusing to voters and they are going to go with the old stereotypes, Democrats care about our pain, Republicans love the evil businessmen who screwed us.

    I’ve never heard a national Republican make this argument– “So everyone agrees that the evil rich have more than their ‘fair share’ and we should take it from them. But what do those SOB’s do with all their money; they buy jewels, yachts, BMW’s and, by the way– they create quality jobs for jewelers, craftsmen who work on yachts and car salesmen or they invest in companies to make those cos. more productive and hire more people. If the government taxes that money away to create more jobs for people in this country, what job program are they going to create that would be more effective than letting these horrible people spend their money and create these good jobs.”

    We need to school some of these dummies to know more than Rich=Evil and who cares the most.

    • gamecock

      read this

      http://www.redstate.com/diaries/nobama/2008/sep/20/poll-junkies-please-check-out-this-diary-rev/

      Reagan won landslides BEFORE Rush and FNC

      Known leftists never win
      Obama is a known leftist

      • OccamsRazor

        Is the Death of Hope. They know this, the media uses it as if it were a wrench weapon against your own self. I’ll leave with you with an edited quote,

        It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

        -Roosevelt

        • OccamsRazor

          Is the Death of Hope. They know this, the media uses it as if it were a wrench weapon against your own self. I’ll leave with you with an edited quote,

          It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat”.

          -Roosevelt

          • aceintx

            that’s for certain but as GC point’s out, Reagan won in two landslides despite the so called objective press having a monopoly on news and information dissemination…

            A 9% to 18% disapproval rating for Congress in general coupled with a 40% support for an individuals own member of Congress is simply too huge to ignore…

            The issue I keep trying to bring to the fore is the need for our leadership to stop acting like a bunch of panty wastes and fight like this nations future depends on stopping the Democrats, (which it does), in sted of tripping over themselves trying to see who can out compromise the Republican beside them in the Congress