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As Predicted, Castle Polling For Potential Write In Bid In DE vs The Handling Of Murkowski Committee Leadership

SURPRISE!!!

I said last week when Mike Castle refused to endorse O’Donnell and Lisa Murkowski announced her write in candidacy that he would be next.

I predicted he would tell us for a couple of weeks he won’t do a write in bid.

Next would be a whisper campaign about people calling on him to give them an independent choice.

Of Course, this would be followed up by the inevitable announcement that Mike just HAS to represent the good people who feel they “don’t have a voice in Washington” aren’t “represented by the extremes of either party”.

So…here we are just one week later…and listen to the chatter.


From National Review Online 9/22/2010

In an impromptu chat with reporters on Wednesday, Rep. Mike Castle did not shut the door on a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Castle, who last week lost Delaware’s GOP Senate primary to Christine O’Donnell, says that he has given “some thought” to mounting a challenge to O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons, but “probably won’t do it.”

Of course…we can’t expect the “MODERATE” Castle to give a categorical answer as to whether he’d leave the party that has bent over backwards to appease him over the last decade or so….can we?

That’s how it starts….”Well, I’ve given it some thought…and it probably won’t happen.”

This is then followed up with, “Well, I’ve heard from a lot of good people that want an independent voice, someone to represent them because the two parties do not represent their views…

Ohhh…wait:

“I have had a lot of people approach me about it . . . my approval rating is still high.” Still, he says, “I don’t want to necessarily interfere with Republican chances.”

Of course, not only does Castle give the game away by pointing to his “high approval ratings”…the next couple of paragraphs tell the tale. When NRO asks the obvious follow up…

What can O’Donnell do to secure your support?

Well…what would you expect any self respecting “Republican” moderate to say?

“That’s a maze I couldn’t even get into at this point,”

Which brings me to the point of my story.

What does he make of Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who recently mounted a write-in bid after losing her GOP primary? Since then, she has lost her leadership post in the party.

Keep in mind, this is before the GOP decided to allow Lisa to keep her leadership status on several key committees AFTER she went rogue running against the party and her nominee in Alaska.

“I understand what the Republican party has to do,” he, (Castle) says. “I can’t thank the Republican party enough, the senatorial committee . . . I understand that when someone else is nominated, they have the responsibility to help that person.”

“I think there is still room for moderate Republicans,”

To bad the party apperently didn’t understand as well as Castle what they “HAD TO DO.”

This is why the votes on Murkowski concerning her leadership of important committees is/was such a big deal.

The reason to strip Murkowski of her leadership assignments on key committees wasn’t about “punishing” a rogue member of the caucus who is sticking her thumb in the eye of Republican voters in AK, (though a small measure of just deserts would be very sweet indeed).

It’s not even as important IMHO to keep her from using those leadership positions to make the case as to why she’d be a better Senator from AK than Miller would because of her power position, seniority and ability to bring home the bacon, (though that is an important reason as well).

For me…and anyone interested in advancing the movement against entrenched progressives within the Republican Party, the reason to remove her from her leadership assignments and strip her of her perks is to send a message to others within the Republican Party, that if you betray the voters of this party…you do so at the expense of any future you might have within the caucus should you ever achieve high office again.

There needed to be a message sent…LOUD AND CLEAR to any future party switchers…or sour grapes write in candidates that if you dare to thwart the will of voters in this party…you will NOT be welcomed back into leadership again without losing some serious skin in the climb back to the top.

So here we are a day later….From Politico:


Mike Castle will test waters with poll

Rep. Mike Castle is planning on polling a potential three-way Senate race to test his chances as a write-in candidate, a Delaware Republican tells POLITICO….

The GOP source did not have specifics on when Castle’s team would conduct the poll, but viewed it as a practical step even if the nine-term congressman was unlikely to re-enter the race.

A spokeswoman for Castle, who put the chances of him running as a write-in “under 5 percent,” said her boss likely wouldn’t settle on a final decision before next week.

Said Castle spokeswoman Kate Dickens: “A lot of encouragement has come in, nice calls from people in Delaware who want an independent voice.”

So…based on that…there is a “POSSIBILITY” of a write in campaign right? I mean…Though Castle “SOUNDS” like he doesn’t “want to necessarily interfere with Republican chances,” it sure looks like he does doesn’t he?

Try this on for size:

Delaware GOP National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw said she has fielded dozens of calls over the last 48 hours, MOSTLY FROM DEMOCRATS, about a potential Castle write-in campaign.

“They want to organize a write-in campaign. I’m stunned. Obviously, they don’t like their option of voting for Chris Coons. I pass them along to Mike Castle’s organization. I think they are waiting for a nod from Castle,”


SO, CAN ANYONE TELL ME WHY A GOP NATIONAL COMMITTEE WOMAN IS FORWARDING MESSAGES FROM DEMOCRATS TO MIKE CASTLE TO ENCOURAGE A WRITE IN CANDIDACY?

But that’s another blog for another time…file this away in your memory because this HAS to be addressed!

But of course…the NRSC and the Republican leadership has made it plain that it will back O’Donnell 100%. In fact the Politico says that “TOP GOP LEADERS IN THE UNITED STATES SENATE SENT A STRONG MESSAGE THURSDAY” that they back the nominee:

Stirs the soul doesn’t it…when you hear about how forceful the “Republican Leadership” is being as they send messages to would be party switchers and spoilers in our quest to take back the Senate from “Bearded Marxists”!

Till you look back just hours before…when they had the opportunity to send a REAL message by stripping Murkowski of all her perks.

Kind of rings hollow now doesn’t it?

And if any of you doubt Castle will make an announcement this time next week about a write in run for DE Senate…I have some ocean front property in the heart of down to San Antonio you simply HAVE to buy!

COMMENTS

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    2 Libs vs 1 Con. it should work out about as well as Crist and meeks vs. Rubio down in Fl.

    • proudgop

      Let Castle and Coons gobble up New Castle County while she wins the other 2 counties in the state

      I sorta hope he does run

      • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack
  • chbroussard

    with these establishment Repubs is to make sure that Lisa, Charlie, and Mike (if it comes to a write-in) are totally embarrassed at the polls and go down in defeat like the Titanic. I would encourage readers to send $$ to Joe Miller, Christine O’Donnell, and Marco Rubio to oveflow their coffers and give them every advantage possible to send this message to the tone-deaf and arrogant in the Republican Party. We need to make a huge statement that this will not be tolerated and that there will be such major repurcussions that no one in their right might would even consider doing this in the 2012 elections. If we don’t, we open ourselves up for more of this to come.

  • IJB

    Bottom line: If Castle follows through on this, it makes Coons the *least likely* of the three to win it.

    • AceInTX

      and what about a National GOP Committee woman forwarding DEMOCRAT emails to the Castle campaign to encourage him to run…WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?

  • Scope

    ” Delaware GOP National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw said she has fielded dozens of calls over the last 48 hours, MOSTLY FROM DEMOCRATS, about a potential Castle write-in campaign.

    ?They want to organize a write-in campaign. I?m stunned. Obviously, they don?t like their option of voting for Chris Coons. I pass them along to Mike Castle?s organization. I think they are waiting for a nod from Castle,?

    Either Ms. Rakestraw is as dumb as a box of rocks, or she is reading from Rules for Radicals. Does she really think the Democrats want Castle to run a write-in campaign, because they don’t like Coons? They want Castle to do a write-in so the Democrat DOES win. They want to split the R vote. This is coming from a GOP National Committeewoman? As Rush just said also, it would be very interesting to know what Castle’s conversations were with Obama and Biden. Somewhere this morning I heard or read that they did in fact encourage Castle to mount a write in campaign. The day Obama or Biden would prefer a used up old Republican, rather than a Bearded Marxist, is the day the seas will again part.

    Also, I read an article this morning, questioning whether the moderate losers are really the ones that will be breaking off from the Republican party, and forming their own moderate third party. I thought that was an interesting concept. It would mean that the conservatives have won, and have successfully wrenched the Republican party back from the moderates, that put us out in the snow. There are still some in the Senate that will have to make some hard decisions before 2012. Either they are with the majority of the R voters in the country, or they will stay out in the snow they drug us out to. Even if any of the loser moderates manage a win in November, they are then Independents, that would caucus with the direction of the wind that day.

    • JSobieski

      Split the non-conservative vote—1992 in reverse

    • AceInTX
      • Scope

        The DE GOP was against O’Donnell throughout this whole campaign. She was OK back a few years ago to run against Bite Me, but, now since their boy wanted the seat, she’s not qualified, and worse. I promise this is not the only state GOP that prefers to pull out the old campaign signs, and just change the year. This isn’t the only state GOP that is working actively, or behind the scenes to defeat the primary winners. This isn’t the first year that this has started happening. The difference is, now the many sleepers have awoken, and said NO. This is happening from Washington on down the line.

        Frankly, I am pleased that the cockroaches are coming out of the woodwork, and we can now identify them. I expect our friend CW to be along any time now to tell us once again how to defeat these people, because, no one currently in power ever will. We the people have to punish this treachery, and we have much more than a toe in the door with those efforts.

        • AceInTX

          That’s one of the reasons for the pointed toes on cowboy boots in Texas…so we can crush those little varmints when they hide in a corner…try that in a pair of $2000 Gucci pumps

  • JadedByPolitics

    because in the end they will be the MINORITY Party and the Conservative Party will continue to win. These RINO’s will split the D and I vote and Conservatives (all 42% of us) will sweep the elections. If the Republicans are in any way serious about keeping that Party they have, they better stop playing DC games and start doing what is RIGHT for America!

  • fpete13527

    Almost all of the pure RINO’s that RS and other Conservative websites have predicted will sell out and jump ship……have done so.

    I hope people are finally starting to abandon the “big tent” whale manure and understand Ace’s/Fred’s and other’s “magnet” principle as being the one.

    TONS of comments were made about the complete impossibility of Castle, Murk, Bennett, or Crist jumping ship and becoming even further slime. Well what other proof is needed at this point?.

    Unless you are completely irrelevant or idiotic, or both, like David Frum and Kathleen Parker, it has got to be clear that the fight against RINO’s needs to be second only to the removal Dem/Socialists.

    This is an excellent video from Ben Howe’s site. Overall motivation from the video is part part. The RINO ejection segment comes in the middle around 2:00 minute mark.

    http://bit.ly/aA2kz1

  • Scope

    during the primary, and speaking to groups against O’Donnell, and for Castle.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2589181/posts

    I thought this question came up with the Murkowski/Miller primary, and, that it was determined that GOP Committees were not to work for or against particular candidates in primaries. No? Wasn’t their an accusation that the AK GOP was making phone calls on Murkowski’s behalf, but, Achance said that no one could prove that. Did he not say that it is not uncommon for GOP’s people to call voters, and, remind to vote Republican, but, not for a specific candidate?

    This woman is a delegate, and, unfortunately will be voting on the next RNC Chairman. How much you want to bet she goes all out to keep Steele?

    • AceInTX
  • tngal

    I mentioned yesterday he was looking into pulling a Murk and the posters reponded generally that Coons voters would go to Castle. . But I’m reminded of people like Achance. And Tom Doheny.

    Obviously O Donnell has the strong C’s, but then there are those strongly believe that Castle was the only was to WIN against coons and that’s all they care about. As strong as some were for Murk in Alaska we saw what happened when Miller got it. There were a number of R’s who promised to hold their nose and vote Miller even though they were Murk people once. But once Murk announced she was going write in her staunch supporters came back.

    Then there Tom Doheny. He WAS the head of communications for Delaware’s state Republican Party, He worked for Castle and said not so nice things about ODonnell. ODonnell won, and this morning Doheny said this he’s leaving the Delaware GOP and will now work for the Pennsylvania GOP. He couldn’t stand the thought of having to publicize for ODonnell so he leaves.

    If Castle pulls this, I think he’ll get those who think Coons is too lib, as well as the mods who were going to sit out, and the Reps that were uncomfortable with ODonnell but would hold their nose to vote for her because she got the party line.

    Kennedys seat, Murkowski’s seat and now Castle thinks he owns a seat. We really need to buy some new furniture come November.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/delaware-gop-staffer-leaves-st.html

    • IJB

      That’s what AK has shown us – Miller’s support has gone from 50-ish to 40-ish, but McAdams’ support has gone from 40-ish to 20-ish. So Murk. pulled more than twice as much from McAdams’ support.

      The situation is even more stark in FL – I think Rubio is pulling something like 70-80% of Republicans. So Crist is pulling the vast majority of his support from Meek. Yeah, sure – if Crist were gone, Rubio would probably be 5-10% higher; but Meek would be, like, 20% higher!

      So, if this experience is repeated in DE (except I think the effect will be magnified, because Castle will pull even harder from Coons), it’ll probably end up a close 3-way race.

      But I’d give the edge to O’Donnell (I think she’ll hold a large majority of her current supporters). And I’d give Coons the lowest odds to win…

  • http://xmmlbchat.blogspot.com katesmith

    In NY state Carl Paladino won the Rep. primary v Rick Lazio, not even close. Today Rick Lazio goes on radio in NYC says he’s staying on the ballot as a conservative candidate, wants to use this ‘opportunity’ to force other candidates to attend to certain issues. One of the polls helped the Lazio/establishment side saying Lazio is a factor not to win but to take votes from Paladino. I thought the election was about saving the country, but the spoiler Republicans illustrate why we lost our country in the first place. They lack even a shred of character, and prove they had no intention of representing the people. Also, former NYC mayor Ed Koch, a longtime friend of Mario Cuomo, is talking down Carl Paladino who’s running against Mario’s son Andrew.

    • IJB
    • Scope

      come out publicly and talk about just how much Cuomo is the dirtiest and sleaziest of all NY politicians? I understand that Spitzer will be co-hosting a TV show starting in October some time. Cant’s he do much damage to Cuomo before the elections?

      • acat

        Maybe Client # 9 knows something about Cuomo….

        Mew

        • Scope

          It’s likely Madame Rue’s client has quite the knowledge of his own types. Of course that was before he found salvation. LOL

  • SirGladiator

    Obviously O’Donnell is a vastly superior candidate to Coons, but she starts out pretty far behind without a ton of time to make up the ground. No doubt she can make up the ground in a 1 on 1 matchup, but if Castle were to get in and take half the Democrat’s vote away that sure would make things a lot easier :) . As an earlier comment already pointed out, all she needs is help in New Castle county, she’s going to win the other two counties, probably by sizable margins. And that just happens to be Castle’s base of support, I think it might’ve been the only county he got over 40 percent of the vote in. So let him come in and take those New Castle liberal votes from Coons, while O’Donnell runs up the score in the other two counties, and we’ll have a landslide victory for Christine! Hopefully if he does this, the O’Donnell campaign will realize quickly that they don’t need to run many, if any, negative ads against the Democrat, just run nice positive ads to secure the base and pick off some undecideds, run some comparitive ads showing her as the Conservative and Coons/Castle as the liberals to pick off some of the moderate vote, and let Castle and Coons fight it out amongst themselves for the liberal vote. Sounds good to me!

    • jeremyz

      She is the conservative and that is to her benefit, but vastly superior candidates do not leave all the vulnerable openings she has left because of her repeated “15 minutes of fame” over the years. Righly or wrongly, electability and perception are still of some importance in elections and especially general elections. The biblical proverb serves true in this sense, “Even a fool is considered wise in their silence.”

      • Tbone
        • kestrel
  • Illinicon

    as it takes Coons out of the picture in terms of being able to win, as Castle will take in alot of “moderate democrat” votes from him. A liberal is better than a Marxist who will be a pet for the Democratic leadership. Though I doubt he will do it because he doesnt like O’Donnell and it only increases her odds from winning if he goes through with it.

  • lukematthews

    Take Coons votes, please. The Sourgrapes Gang may vote for him and the moderates, but the conservatives are too hungry to consider Castle and the Lefties will continue to pull Coons leftward.

  • swami7774

    …has an ad been made yet depicting Coons on Reid’s lap? That ad writes itself.

  • mammothhair

    Hopefully, Castle’s write-in campaign will not be any more successful than O’Donell’s 2006 Write-in Campaign.

  • kestrel

    thank you for reminding me: tomorrow at 8pm eastern standard time, ?Spotlight on Chris Coons? is making its debut on the Bearded Marxist channel. RedStaters won?t want to miss this award-winning redistributive documentary.

    h/t Karl Marx, via one of Hillary Clinton?s seances.

  • AceInTX

    That’s not to mention the Senate club letting Murkowski keep her perks…which is what this post is about in the first place and the message allowing her to keep her leadership position sends to other would be turn coats…

    But let a Conservative signal they might be willing to vote third party rather than vote for some RINO….and just listen to the howls of protest!

    • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

      …for O’Donnell. And if I had any authority in the DE GOP at all that’s what I’d be telling Castle, too.

      But if he does go the write-in route, he takes more votes away from Coons than he does from O’Donnell. I don’t think that this is a *good* thing, but it’s an improvement on the current situation.

      • AceInTX

        I think we’re saying the same thing here….and the fact that people in this thread are making excuses for Castle and cheering him on in essence is perplexing to me.

        • JSobieski

          If the point is to put a conservative in the Senate, lets put a conservative in the Senate.

          I agree with you on Murkowski, but frankly of those two incidents are just getting our folks pumped up even more.

          There will be time to clean house after November with two new sitting Senators.

          Let these people hang themselves while helping us. Time to be smart on our side.

          • JSobieski

            I suggest we put aside subsidiary concerns such as instilling party loyalty and focus on WINNING. If Castle running as independent helps that—we should want it to happen.

            The race isn’t about O’Donnell’s past history or Castle’s party loyalty, both are side issues of subsidiary importance. Its about saving the country by putting another conseravtive in the Senate.

            I for one hope that people Castle trusts aren’t really trustworthy, and they encourage him to run. Castle isn’t dumb, but all politicians have egos. Time to pull out all of the stops. Going with O’Donnell was a decision to go all in–no reason to change the tactical assessment now.

            I hope the jerk runs and runs hard. Split that liberal country in northern DE with Coons and Castle, and we have a probably victory scenario for O’Donnell.

          • AceInTX

            It shows the need for Conservatives to unite and defeat Castle/Coons!

          • AceInTX

            We keep talking about uniting around common goals and building enthusiasm across the country of Republicans…when at the same time demanding that we turn a blind eye to enthusiasm killing behavior such as having the Senate Caucus allow a turncoat and traitor keep her perks and privileges as ranking member of a coveted committee!

        • aesthete

          That would be what Castle’s potential bid falls under. If Castle runs, O’Donnell’s chances of winning dramatically increase. Her floor of support is somewhere around 30%. I think it’s safe to say that those voters will stick with her through thick and thin (at least in this election). If she only has to grow that percentage from 30 to 35% or 40% (as would be the case with a Castle run), instead of from 35% to 50%, she has a great opportunity ahead of her. If she can focus on turnout of southern DE’s votes while Castle and Coons fight over the dejected liberal electorate up north, she has a way to win. This would allow O’Donnell to win by running to the right and increasing turnout, or by trying to win over just a few independents. What is not great about either possibility? Running against Coons, she would have to win over a goodly chunk of Dems and indies in the north: hostile territory for her. This is as good of news as we can expect in this race: we can punish Castle and the rest later.

      • JSobieski

        particularly with those in the mushy middle. The value of Castle campaigning for O’Donnell is what? O’Donnell already has the Castle voters that she is going to get. Castle’s betrayal will just fire up folks and maybe convince fence sitters to go with O’Donnell.

        The purpose is to win. We have lost elections due to the weird dynamics of third party runs (see 1992). Why not embrace this?

        I say encourage it to happen, and after the election, slit the political throats of everyone who went along.

        The entire primary season, O’Donnell supporters argued essentially the bottom line that we need a conservative vote in the Senate. I agree, so lets not play stupid establishment games about losers campaigning for winners, etc. Screw that. Lets win. Give Castle enough rope to hang himself, his RINO turncoats, and the D.

        Lets win using all the tools available to us. I am going to write Castle an encourage him to run a write in campaign.

        • AceInTX

          The entire primary season, O?Donnell supporters argued essentially the bottom line that we need a conservative vote in the Senate. I agree, so lets not play stupid establishment games about losers campaigning for winners, etc. Screw that. Lets win. Give Castle enough rope to hang himself, his RINO turncoats, and the D.

          Yet I don’s believe hammering at Castle/Murkowski is a negative…it fires up the base to turn out and prove the establishment line that conservatives can’t win in AK and DE false.

          Can we not agree there?

          • JSobieski

            “We have a sour grape RINO signaling a 3rd party fun in DE and you guys want to cheer him on?”

            Yes, I want to cheer him on–most definitely yes!

  • tacoslayer

    I just don’t see Coons voters switching to Castle as a write in candidate. I also don’t see O’Donnell picking up many Castle voters. I think the Castle voters will most likely just sit this one out.

    No. I don’t like O’Donnell. I’m not convinced she is electable regardless of all this. But this is a serious crap weasel move by Castle if it transpires. He and Murkowski should both be shunned.

    • JSobieski

      goes down from 50% +1 to something in the high 30s/low 40s.

      O’Donnell is going to win a majority in the two southern counties. In the northern county, Castle will reduce Coon’s votes by attracting write in votes.

      It’s not so much that Coons voters will switch to Castle, it’s that Castle voters won’t switch to Coons because they will write in Castle.

      O’Donnell is the most distinct candidate out of the three, so the more blur and mush there is, she will be damaged less than the other two.

      • AceInTX

        People that go through the exorcise of writing in a name are people motivated by “sending a message”. I’m not convinced there are all that many Democrats that are motivated enough to send a message by writing in Castle since Dems aren’t as committed to voting no matter what as much as Republicans are….I see Anti-O’Donnel Republicans being more inclined to write in Castle….than disaffected Democrats writing in Castle as opposed to just staying home.

        It’ll be interesting to see which of these memes carry water the day ofter the elections but I am very doubtful that the CW on a Castle run helping O’Donnell holds water

        • JSobieski

          (1) Look to Alaska. The positions of the candidates are roughly analogous. The household RINO write-in is drawing 2-1 away from the democrat,

          (2) Look to Florida. Crist is pulling more than 2-1 away from the democrat.

          (3) Consider the following logic:

          (a) Nobody who voted for O’Donnell in the primary is going to switch to Castle in the general–they obviously prefer O’Donnell and Castle as a long-shot write-in makes less sense than Castle the inevitable

          (b) Some Castle voters may still prefer Castle, but will vote for the R out of loyalty, or to voice disgust at Castle. In AK and FL, there are a lot of votes in this category.

          (c) Some Coons voters will vote for Castle who would not vote for O’Donnell. Castle won a majority of votes in DE since forever. The guy had democrats who voted for him each election. In AK and FL, there are quite a few votes in this category.

          • AceInTX

            (1) Look to Alaska. The positions of the candidates are roughly analogous. The household RINO write-in is drawing 2-1 away from the democrat,

            First there have been no votes cast and we don’t know how many people will write in Lisa’s name.

            Second, Alaska has a history of write in candidacies

            (2) Look to Florida. Crist is pulling more than 2-1 away from the democrat.

            Crist is on the ballot as a candidate…his is not a write in candidacy

            (a) Nobody who voted for O?Donnell in the primary is going to switch to Castle in the general?they obviously prefer O?Donnell and Castle as a long-shot write-in makes less sense than Castle the inevitable

            Granted

            (b) Some Castle voters may still prefer Castle, but will vote for the R out of loyalty, or to voice disgust at Castle. In AK and FL, there are a lot of votes in this category.

            Granted as well…however, you neglect to mention the disaffected establishment types who will turn out and write in Castle to send a message.

            (c) Some Coons voters will vote for Castle who would not vote for O?Donnell. Castle won a majority of votes in DE since forever. The guy had democrats who voted for him each election. In AK and FL, there are quite a few votes in this category.

            Again, It is yet to be seen if there are any….let alone a large number of disaffected Democrats who will turn out to write in Castle who wouldn’t have stayed home rather than voting for Coons anyway….

            This whole line of reasoning has a ring of justification to it rather than any fact based analysis based on anything solid…in other words…

            How much of this arguement has been planted out there by the Castle and Murkowski campaigns to justify their bad behavior and minimize the negative reaction to their apostasy?

            My thing is this…after the last couple of years of beating anyone about the head who suggested staying home, voting third party…or just leaving the ballot blank rather than voting for a RINO…I find this a little rich considering the fact that it is the very people forwarding it who were the most strident advocates of banning and banishing anyone and everyone who dared utter the terms third and party in the same sentence.

            But of course…we’re talking about a RINO Establishment candidate who is doing what Conservatives have been accused of doing in the past…..

            hmm…

            (scratching chin in thoughtful reflection)

          • JSobieski

            Its the ratio that matters. O’Donnell is a classic example of a candidate with a die hard following who also has high negatives. A viable third party candidate is exactly how such a candidate wins.

            You grant that (a) and (b) favors O’Donnell. Lets look at (c) again.

            First a disaffected Coons voter who would otherwise stay home but votes for Castle is a wash unless you believe that Castle will actually win.
            Coons will get Y votes
            O’Donnell with X votes
            Z number of disaffected voters stay home

            With Castle in the race the stay at home voters transform in Castle votes, not O’Donnell votes. So how does that hurt O’Donnell? Unless you think Castle can actually win, shifting votes from non-votes to Castle votes has no impact on the final tally.

            Second, you are forgetting who is in Castle’s base. Castle has been attracting D voters for years. Some Castle voters will vote for Castle as a write in, but anyone that dedicated to sending a message wouldn’t be voting for O’Donnell anyway. However, there will be moderate D voters who vote Castle because they don’t want Coons and don’t want O’Donnell.

            Even if you don’t buy scenario (c), there is little chance of (c) being a negative for O’Donnell. (a) and (b) are clearly in her favor. Even if you assume (c) is a wash, a Castle run is in her favor.

            Assumptions:
            (1) A write in candidate can’t win
            (2) Castle must get a non-de minimis % of the vote. if he is less than 5%, I don’t think he helps (or hurts)

        • JSobieski

          If Castle manages to snag 20% of the vote in a write in, O’Donnell will win for sure. I suspect that he won’t get that high.

          Write-ins tend not to do that well.

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