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The AceInTX Take On The Republican Field So Far. Part 1

By: AceInTX (Diary)  |  January 8th, 2011 at 04:14 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This Post started out as a reply to Arron Gardner’s post “Taking a hiatus, here’s something to chew on for the primaries.”. It got to be too long so I turned it into two Diary Posts in the end.

I do tend to go on a bit don’t I?

I’ll save Palin and Romney for last because they both need special attention and because I believe…in the end…it’s going to come down to a choice between those two.

Haley Barbour

I’m most in line with Barbour and am currently supporting him as my number one pick..

Mainly I like the way he speaks…(as a fellow southerner?…who’d have thunk it, right? …heh)

…anyway…

He has a down home way of putting things that makes sense to the common man and I think he could sway a lot of social and fiscal issues middle class folks our way.

To top it off, he’s got a strong track record of dealing with crisis. Hurricane Katrina anyone? Talk about a contrast to the Dems running Louisiana!

I think he’ll destroy anyone in the debates… assuming, of course, the debates aren’t so crowded that he ever get’s a chance to speak. I’ve seen him deal with smart alack reporters and answer questions in a way that are not open to question. he’s quick on his feet and can turn a phrase in such a way that leaves those who would challenge him sitting in a corner drooling on themselves.

Putting on my fortune teller hat…Without a doubt, he’ll have the same problem Fred had in not being called on by debate moderators for that reason and they’ll be focusing all the lights on Romney as the establishment pick, Huckabee as a spoiler…then Palin for the fire works…she’ll get all the gotcha questions…mark it down…I said it here.

Any questions he does get in the debates are going to be about his comments In “A Boy From Yazoo City” about the role of the white Citizens Council in his hometown of Yazoo City Mississippi during school desegregation and the civil rights days.

This has already led to a firestorm, and it will continue…He’ll be poked and prodded up one side and down the other about the civil rights era and his home state of Mississippi…if he can get past this…(I believe if anyone from the south can get past it…Haley’s the guy)…I think he can seize the brass ring…if he can’t get out of this predictable vice…then he’s toast…

His history as a lobbyist is troublesome as well…but he has a way of saying…”yeah, so?” that is disarming. Again he’ll have to clear this hurdle. I believe he will…which is why I have him as my number one…but time will tell and a readjustment in my pecking order may be in order if he can’t.

Mike Pence

Pence is my next choice, (actually he’s my first…but I can’t get past what I’ll lay out here as his negatives).

I love the guy…you can go back to comments I made back on 2008 to see he’s been on my RADAR going back to then…Pence is a rock star with the conservative base…particularly social conservatives…He’s got it all on policy and is solid on all three legs of the stool.

Except executive experience….Arron Gardner, (AG), mentioned president of a think tank…but that’s paltry at best when compared to POTUS IMHO…

But the rest of America?

“Pence Who?”

“Oh…he’s that guy that looks like Race Bannon from Johnie Quest?”

Bruce

“Don’t know anything about him”

He’ll have to overcome not only the Congressional Curse, (Americans as a rule don’t elect Presidents from the Senate, or especially Congress to become POTUS), .he’ll have to introduce himself to 95% of this country who don’t have the first clue as to who he is with a press not inclined to help solid conservatives become known.

Finally…after Obama…are Americans willing to roll the dice on another Unknown?

I’m betting not!

As I said…I love the guy and if all the above can be overcome…I’d be behind him 100%…above Haley or anyone else running…I just don’t see him doing it…I think he’s doing it right going for Gov.

Herman Cain

I must confess ignorance…I know a lot of Red Staters love him…I know he’s been successful in business…I know he was a star in the military…but beyond that…I know nothing…and as much time as I spend on politics and the news…I can only assume…outside Red State and a few other conservative sites…he’s an unknown…so he’ll have to overcome the name recognition problem as Pence.

I’ll second AG’s comparisons to Forbes…though Cain is more charismatic than Forbes by all accounts and more photogenic.

I love the idea of a successful businessman who came up on his own climbing to the heights of the Presidency……

……I don’t know that he can do it. Forbes couldn’t, and even though I would say Cain has a much better chance than Forbes of inspiring people to vote for him, I still don’t think that is enough for him to be remembered as much more than an “also ran”

Then the question becomes as it is with Pence…”after Obama…are Americans willing to roll the dice on another Unknown?”

Mitch Daniels

Please!

You only get one chance to make a good first impression…and his first impression wasn’t good.

Starting off his introduction on the national stage by calling for a truce…for a marginalization of the vast majority of the Republican Party was dumb. A sure sign he’s not ready for prime time.

Social conservatives were told we need to give up on saving babies, the wanton destruction of the American family and the cultural bulwarks that have made this nation a shining city on a hill because we have more important things to discuss like balancing budgets and making suasage…blah blah blah.

Then he’s gone on to worsen that impression.

Several months ago he comes out declaring we all have to be “grown ups” and be willing to discuss raising taxes on a national level so we can fix our budget problem.

Just this week he made more news…leaving a poor impression on me.

Given the perfect opportunity to show his leadership skills in pushing for Right to work legislation in his state…where the Republican Party holds majorities in both houses what does he do?

He just sits there like a knot on a log…

This was his chance to shine…to save his state from Union thuggery and prove to the Midwest what Texas and the rest of the south proved in the 1980s by passing right to work laws. Unions are poison to economic growth. They kill jobs and destroy cities, counties and states. People leave big blue union states to find jobs. Ask Texas…We get to add four new Congresscritters heading for Washington this year!

Yet what does he do? Does he take on the Unions? Does he side with his Republican Legislature?

NOPE!!!

I can’t figure for the life of me what anyone sees in the guy?

Aside from a post by Erick a couple years ago…I’d had never heard of him…Erick was very positive toward him at the time but even in the glowing review we learned that Mitch Daniels first instinct as governor was to call for a class warfare surtax on “The Rich”. Only to be slapped down by the IN Republican Legislature.

Since then he’s done a great job budget wise…but I’m skeptical of his instincts. If his first inclination in dealing with a Republican Legislature in Indiana is to call for a surtax on the “Rich”, what’s he likely to do if confronted by a Harry Ried and Nancy Pelosi in control of the House and Senate during his tenure as POTUS?

My guess is he’d get rolled! If not roll over like a good boy! He’s already shown a penchant for progressive tax the rich class envy…so why wouldn’t he sell us down the river on the issue if pressured by a Dem House and Senate?

Last but not least is his personality…or lack thereof.

Are we really going to run Mr. Milk Toast himself against Mr. Personality?

We saw how that worked with McLame of “respectful campaign” fame.

Aside from being a sell out and an annoying son of a…well…you all get that I don’t like McCain…Johnny Mac has all the personality of a dead fish…except…McCain shows some signs of life…I’m not so sure of Daniels on that count.

Teleprompters or not…Obama is anything but boring…in campaign mode he’s brilliant…the Teflon seems to be gone now…but will it be in 12? A lot can happen in a year…and once Obama get’s going in campaign mode…he’ll likely get people fired up again…and we’re going to counter that with…MITCH DANIELS???

REALLY???

Even if all the tax the rich baggage weren’t true about Mitch…do we really want to see HIM carrying our banned against Obama? Think back to Al Bore in 2000…or Michael Dukakis in 1988…Obama would KILL him on personality alone…

Mike Huckabee

The only reason I would give him a second look would be a desperation move to stop Romney. He’s made too many gaffs and is too liberal on fiscal issues for me.

Oh…and he’s too charitable toward Democrats and our political enemies for my taste.

Rick Santorum

I haven’t stopped to kick the tires on him yet…and have no reason to at the moment. If he sparks…and he can move onto the scene with a little fire behind him…I could see myself jumping on the bandwagon…He’s solid on Social issues…but on fiscal issues and federal power?…I’m not so sure…my impression is…he’d be Bush light on everything but social issues…

No thanks.

Tim Pawlenty

McCain’s favorite Republican?

Johnnie Mac started singing his praises a couple years ago…as far as I’m concerned THAT makes him radio active!

Besides…he looks like the little dweebs we used to laugh at in High School. All he needs is the Buddy Holly glasses with tape on the bridge and a pocket protector full of pens to complete the image.

He looks like he should be running for class president or something! In high school no less!

Rudy Giuliani

He’s making noise about a possible run…but I don’t know why?

Maybe he just likes wasting campaign money?

I wanted him to run to fill Hillary’s seat…or the other Senate seat in NY…If he and Pataki had gone after both those seats…I think there is a good chance we’d have had two Republican Senators from NY and I’d have supported both with money, time, and ink….but for POTUS?

Not a chance!

Finally we come to Romney and Palin

I’ll post that as a separate Diary.

This one is getting too long and I have a lot to say on the two

Stay tuned folks. Same Bat Time, Same Bat Channel.

***UPDATE******UPDATE******UPDATE******UPDATE******UPDATE***

I’ll post my Romney analysis Monday.

It’s already written…I just need to edit…refine…and post it.

I ran long on it so it looks like there will be Part 3 for Sarah…which is OK… I’m honestly in the middle on her….I can see the points of the antis…and I see the points of those being called PALINBOTs on the subject…I’m sure I’ll ruffle feathers on BOTH sides of that divide…

I know…I know…AceInTX being controversial? I realize you all would never expect THAT from me in a million years…

HAH!!!

See you in the comments!

COMMENTS

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  • chbroussard

    throughout this entire post. Couldn’t really find much here that I disagree with. It is well written and IMHO your points are right on target. Pence is my first choice, but understand the hurdles in front of him. I would have no trouble supporting Barbour full force either. I’ll take that southern drawl over O’s pompous speak any day.

    • AceInTX
      • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
        • AceInTX
  • JadedByPolitics

    I of course am a Herman Cain woman and while Mr Cain is working on that name recognition thing I certainly others looking for a different date. I will tell you though when Herman gets known coast to coast you will be singing his praises and jump on his band wagon just as I have :)

    Mitch Daniels – NO
    Haley Barbour – maybe
    Pence – yes
    Guiliani – no – but because his time has come and went
    Huckabee – when hell freezes over
    Pawlenty – maybe if someone could light a fire under his …

    and Palin and Romney I will comment on when you do your other diary.

    • AceInTX

      but I’m still hung up on the idea that if I spend eight to 12 hours a day on news and politics…and I don’t know Diddly on him…then what chance is there that John and Mary Smith from Paris Texas know anything about him?

      • JadedByPolitics

        …

      • azaeroprof

        Seriously, very thoughtful diary, Ace. Look forward to Part 2! :)

    • edintexas

      It will take a lot to overcome that situation. As Ace mentioned, even those of us who spend some time on politics are unfamiliar with Mr, Cain, Being retired, I spend a LOT of time on the subject (my wife says far, far too much time). So there’s a real hill to climb there.

      Guiliani “but because his time has come and went”? Rudy polls well on the Law and Order issue, but there is little doubt he is no Conservative (nor even a conservative). The time for Northeastern Republicans as real contenders for the Republican nomination has indeed come and gone, about 1964 with the nomination of Barry over Nelson. Romney is probably the most conservative of the type, and from my perspective he’s anathema (that’s “It’ll be a cold day before I vote for him, at least in a Primary” for the folks in Rio Linda).

      Just my $0.02 USD.

  • Bill S

    If the freaking button worked in Safari.

    Well done.

    • AceInTX

      LOL

      • Bill S
        • acat

          (posted from my macbook)

          • Bill S

            The Reco button USED to work in Firefox, but it fails now, too

            (posted from my Macbook Air :-) )

          • aesthete
          • Bill S

            But I think Chrome just uses the WebKit (ie. Safari) engine under the covers…

          • Bill S

            OK, there’s another ticky mark for Chrome. I’ll have to switch over to it for a while. I switch from browser to browser on occasion but haven’t used Chrome extensively since it became somewhat mainstream.

            Thanks for the idea, aesthete.

          • aesthete
  • http://bluecollarmuse.com Blue_Collar_Muse

    As others have commented, I found myself nodding in agreement.

    I especially agreed with the Rudy assessment. For the life of me, I cannot understand why he’d even contemplate a run. As I asked a friend the other day, what part of “I didn’t even make it out of the one state I actually campaigned in last time!” does he not remember?

    I’m with you on Barbour and with Jaded on Cain. I’m not sure HB can light the needed fire under the rank and file but I really like his stuff. Cain has the needed ability to inspire but is facing obvious challenges in political experience.

    Can’t wait to see parts II and III …

    • AceInTX

      I still have some historical facts to add on the piece…positions he has taken on one side of a major issue and now he’s on another….

      • red_oakster

        Rudy may not have a huge chance, but his contemplation of a run reflects strategy. There is a geopolitics of Republican presidential nominations. Ace, you overlook it.

        The Republican nominee needs to survive Iowa and New Hampshire. Only two or at most three candidates will do that. If you can’t find a plausible scenario for a candidate doing well in either Iowa or New Hampshire, that candidate isn’t going anywhere.

        Here’s what I see (and what I suspect Giuliani sees):

        Palin and Huckabee are both likely to run. That absorbs almost all the oxygen in Iowa, except for Pence (and he may not run). That means in order to win, any other candidate except for those three need to do really well in New Hampshire-which probably means winning in New Hampshire.

        Now who can do well in New Hampshire after doing poorly in Iowa? Not Gingrich or Barbour or Thune or Pawlenty or Santorum. They need Palin or Huckabee to sit this out or they are not going anywhere.

        Romney stands as the frontrunner in New Hampshire. Beat Romney in New Hampshire and you’re the giant killer. Who can beat Romney in New Hampshire? Not Palin or Huckabee. The anti-Romney, if he succeeds, will sell a better version of economic conservatism and leadership. Daniels could do that. John Bolton could. And Rudy could.

        Conversely if Romney wins New Hampshire, he’s the frontrunner nationally. Huckabee is and Palin (unfortunately) is perceived as a “conservative provincial” (to use Jonah Goldberg’s taxonomy). The blue states send lots of delegates to the GOP convention too, and the provincial tag is a tremendous disadvantage. The winner in New Hampshire is going to enjoy an edge in states like Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, and huge advantages in states like California, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It’s tough for either Palin or Huckabee to win a competition stacked against them in such a fashion.

        The only potential candidate who could overturn the typical geopolitics is Pence. Pence could win in either Iowa or New Hampshire. He is as strong on economic conservative issues as social ones, and Erick was perceptive in recognizing Pence’s unique ability to unifiy the party. Moreover, if Pence wins in Iowa, he could defeat Romney in New Hampshire and end the race right there.

        So when you look at Rudy, whose fortunes waxed and then waned as the inverse of McCain’s fortunes in 2008, consider that he might be looking at New Hampshire and wondering if he can re-claim all those voters he lost to McCain in 2008. Because if he can claim the McCain slot in 2012 and beat Romney in New Hampshire, he will match up against Huckabee or Palin for the rest of the campaign, and the delegate terrain will give him a huge advantage. It’s a long shot, but a lot less hopeless than you think.

        • AceInTX

          My intent is to look at the macro right now…it’s too early to look at how things may go regionally…I mean…right now Huck and Romney are slugging it out for top dog in IA. (GOD help us).

          Maybe Rudy can make a splash in NH?

          Maybe this race won’t be decided traditionally either…There is the possibility,..given the sophistication of a maturing TEA Party movement me catch onto the way the game is rigged by the party elite by putting big blue states that favor Romney, Rudy, Daniels and the more moderate nominees who vote in open primaries up front and leaving the south with big red winner take all states which favor Barbour, Palin Santorum or Huckabee till last.

          Pence is the wild card here…I hope you’re right that he could pull us all together if he makes the run because he’s solid across the board like none of the others…

          I can tell you this…if RUDY wins big in the north…I’d look for this to be contested convention…because I don’t see him winning in the south…and he won’t get enough delegates to go into the convention unopposed. He’s poison to to many of the base…

          anyway…this is meant to be a run down on my first impression…my likes and dislikes…most everything I’ve written here is subject to change depending on the candidates and the way they perform…with a few exceptions…the only tow I’m solidly fixed on are Romney…(which I’ll post in a day or two…I was going to post it today but decided to wait till things die down in AZ) Rudy, and Huckabee

          • AceInTX
          • red_oakster

            What makes Pence so interesting is ability to unite the wings of the party.

            On the Tea Party: I guess it’s possible they could change things, but it’s really hard for me to see a way around the traditional Iowa-New Hampshire winnowing.

            As for Rudy and a contested convention, I suspect any candidate with a majority of delegates is going to be able to consolidate support. All the nomination rules militate against a brokered convention. Also, in 2008, Rudy was very careful not to bicker with social conservatives. If he does run, I would expect him to play down those differences while committing to nominate constitutionalist judges and oppose gay marriage. If I recall correctly, he opposed DADT too. I would also expect him to choose a solid social conservative for VP (Rubio or Pence etc.). Again, to be clear I still think a Rudy win is an outlier.

          • AceInTX

            The thing is this…the press has a narrative…las does the establishment…

            The Republican Establishment will be pushing Romney as the inevitable candidate…the Press will bush Huckabee as a spoiler while simultaneously forwarding the Romney is inevitable as well since he’s the most liberal option in the Republican Field…

            I think they’ll try to help Romney along in the primaries knowing full well they can attack him for talking about repeal in the General since Obamacare is modeled after Mass Care…something Romney spent a good part of the last cycle bragging about.

            …they will pillory and play gotcha all day long with Palin…

            Those three in the end is what we’re likely to end up with for choices at the end of the day. and the establishment can’t advance Romney…I can see the establishment moving to Huck to stop Sarah

            More on that later

          • Scope

            as unfair and disgusting as it has been to see Palin ripped to shreds, yet again by the left, for the Saturday tragedy, but I think this has been the loudest, most vicious and most long term attack on her yet. As misguided and insane as it has been, I don’t know if she can get past this. It would be a long hard row to hoe for her, especially with an already unconvinced independent contingent.

            I read some metrics on a Politico article, and there were no quotes or links to pick up, just the authors words but they were interesting. As of mid-day Saturday, Google trends showed that Palin ranked as the 6th most popular search on hot topics. Palin Crosshairs ranked in 9th place. I realize that it could have been anyone googling those terms, but, given the day, and the tragedy that had just occured, it doesn’t feel positive to me. Also, Randi Zuckerberg of Facebook told ABC that on Sunday the top question being asked was “Is Sarah Palin to blame.” Again, there are some real dumb folks out there that would even ask that question, but, it’s disturbing that so many did. As I said, this horrible incident, that obviously Palin had nothing to do with, will only add additional challenges for her to have to climb over, and, I’m not sure if she can. Couple that with the fact that the establishment will work very hard against her, and, I would now put her odds of running at more like 60/40 that she doesn’t.

          • AceInTX

            there hadn’t been anything to counter what the left and the main stream media were peddling…

            I’m serious…I think we’re to to 4 days away from a massive backlash over what’s been put forward by these fiendish ghouls.

            There meme is crashing down around them to the point where they can’t defend what they’ve put out there,…and they can’t take it back…

            I’m a little disappointed to see Erick talking about being tired of talking about this…because I think the time is ripe for us to turn this back on these freaks who would use the tragic death of a nine year old girl…and the rest of these victims to advance a political agenda…especially by attacking Palin by name when she had NO ties to this lunatic at all.

            as their meme falls apart…and this starts to settle down…then will be the time for us to push back hard and shame these vermin for their despicable behavior.

          • AceInTX

            If he can’t do that…he’ll die in the south where he has NO chance

            Say his name down here as a potential president and you’ll get laughed at….no one will say anything…they’ll just laugh…and walk away shaking their head,.

        • edintexas

          An outstanding exposition of the need to change the primary system, or at least the timing of various primaries. It really is rather ludicrous that two states with fairly insignificant Electoral College votes are allotted such impact on the nomination. NH, with 4 votes, matches RI and has one more than ND. Iowa, with 7 votes, matches OK and OR and has one more than AR.

          • red_oakster

            Thanks Ed for your kind words, but I don’t really see that happening. Only the RNC could do that, and there never will be enough political capital expended. The most that seems possible is for larger states to attempt to have some early influence-for examples, Florida’s willingness to sacrifice half its delegates to go early in 2008 or Super Tuesday. But it does look like Iowa and New Hampshire are the ones to narrow the field in their own inimitable fashion.

            Process and structure matter. There is a geopolitics. My basic point is that conservatives should strategize accordingly. That’s why I thought Erick’s promotion of Pence was extremely shrewd.

          • AceInTX

            We need a couple Big Red Conservative states to go one week after NH…maybe TX, NC, and GA or TN?

            It’s ludicrous tho think Texas doesn’t vote till the primaries have been decided…I don’t know why that is…or what to do to change it…but it is beyond belief to me

          • AceInTX

            and what do we do to start a movement to move TX up if it’s not too late?

          • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

            but it seems pretty obvious why. The establishment knows that if Texas does not vote last, the large amount of delegates from Texas would push the party toward the more conservative candidate (say Palin this time or Huckabee last time), which they deem to be “unelectable”.

          • AceInTX

            at the least it would put the more conservative candidate at the forefront…

            as it is…Texans are forced to vote for the most co0nservative of two moderates because all the big blue states with open primaries eliminate the conservatives in the opening weeks of the primary

          • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

            Iowa is an indicator of the midwest, NH an indicator of the east coast, and South Carolina an indicator of the south. The GOP doesn’t want to commit large amounts of delegates before they have some read on the field nationally, so they pick smaller states for the trial balloons.

          • AceInTX
          • acat

            Let’s face it, the Iowa caucuses can be won by the candidate with a decent story who has the most busses… and New Hampshire can be won by the candidate who has the most time on the ground meeting and greeting and flipping flapjacks. Not sure what the metric is in S.C….

            They’re really about two things – not making any serious missteps .. a “Dean scream” for example… and having the most organized (or largest number… quantity has a quality all its’ own*) boots on the ground, getting caucusers to the caucuses or voters to the polls.

            As long as the rules of the game are understood, I don’t see a reason to change ‘em.

            I would like to see Texas vote right after South Carolina, though. Put a big, red bootprint on the most Conservative candidate… just like Cali puts a blue flip-flop print on the most Liberal…

            Mew

            * yes, that’s a Stalin quote…. and it applies here.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Well, I know I’m one of his biggest backers so I’ll try to enlighten you.

    1) Quick name all of the current Republican contenders who have a proven RECORD of making government smaller:

    Mitch Daniels

    2) Daniels is 100% pro-life despite his wanting to focus on the economy.

    3) Daniels isn’t fighting the RTW battle because he thinks it’s more important to fight the battle over education reform.

    It’s completely false to say he isn’t taking on the unions. He’s simply prioritizing where he wants to do that.

    4) If you read the WHOLE FOUR PARAGRAPH article that was quoted about Daniels, you would have seen where he said very specifically that he thought the RTW fight was worthwhile, but that he didn’t want to sabotage the chance to win education reform.

    5) See #1 again. He has made government smaller — none of the other have.

    NONE OF THEM.

    • AceInTX

      that’s one point….and you ignore the rest…

      1) He proposed a surtax on “The Rich” and was slapped down by his Republican legislature as his first act as governor.

      2) He’s called for raising taxes on a federal level as a way of dealing with the national debt calling those who would agree to such grown ups and implying those who do not are impudent children.

      3) His introduction on the national scene was in calling for a truce on social issues art a time when no socail issues were on the table and social conservatives were busy pulling the wagon in preparation for the 2010 elections.

      4) he has the personality of a dead fish and the charisma to match.

      Maybe he’d make a good President…maybe he’s not as bad as his first impression…if he’s gonna run…and be serious about it…he’d better get busy!

      • aesthete

        He is leading, just on an issue that you apparently don’t care about as much as RTW (school choice). If he gets school choice passed, I’ll cut him some slack on RTW (though I’d definitely like to see him try to tackle it after passing school choice and the budget). To reply to your points in order:

        1) Name a Republican governor in the mix with a better tax record than his: Barbour and Palin raised taxes, Huck raised taxes by a ton, and Romney raised a number of fees. Both Palin and Huck raised taxes on the rich with much aplomb and class warfarist language (Daniels had no such class warfarist rhetoric when he tried raising taxes on the rich, as far as I have been able to ascertain). I appreciate concerns about the early tax stumble in Daniels’ first term (and we should continue to have a critical eye on his proposals in the area of taxation), but criticizing him on that issue while ignoring the atrocious tax records of the most likely contenders seems a bit self-serving.

        2) Milton Friedman called a tax cut that raises the deficit taxation deferred, since the deficit is going to have to be paid at some point down the line. Unless you can find a politically feasible way to cut enough government to start paying off our deficit with current tax receipts, then tax raises should be on the table. Taxation sucks, but it is required to pay for government. Knee-jerk hostility to tax cuts in an environment where spending cuts will be difficult to enact as is will make spending cuts difficult, at best. Ryan’s Roadmap relies on higher tax receipts from switching some taxes to VAT; some would call it a “tax hike”. Reagan had to do it, and so did several conservatives who believed in reducing the burden of government but who were faced with a Hobson’s choice of tax cuts now at the expense of future generations, or tax hikes to keep our investors’ rating. Taxes are on the table for all Republican nominees: some of them just happen to be lying to you about whether they are or not (though most are wisely keeping their mouths shut).

        3) As many have already explained, Daniels’ “truce” was about us prioritizing fiscal issues to build as broad a consensus among voters as possible while we avert existential crisis, in much the same way that the Founders had to agree to disagree on slavery to avoid the threat of civil war and eventual war with GB. Bad choice of wording/timing? Sure, but it’s not the martyrdom of conservatives that some social conservatives would have you believe.

        4) Clearly, your take on personality is subjective, but need I remind you what happened the last time we asked for a “charismatic” President? I’ve had more than enough “charisma” and “personality” in the last two years than I cared for (and it’s not as if Barbour or Pence are super-exciting dudes). Suffice it to say, people overvalue this trait.

        • AceInTX

          1) I wouldn’t try to defend Huck’s tax increases…and you’ll note…I dismissed him out of hand because of fiscal issues which include his tax increases. and it does bother me that we don’t have anyone who doesn’t line up perfectly on the tax issue. But that’s completely besides the point…My objection to Mitch is that 1st HIS was his first act…thus his first instinct and 2nd it involves class envy…sugar coat it all you want but I don’t like it and it’s a non negotiable for me…if Haley or Pence had the same instinct and played the same card…I’d be slamming them just as I am Daniels. Besides…maybe your mother told you…two wrongs don’t make a right…pointing the finger at someone else screaming “He did it too” Isn’t sufficient justification for me

          2) I don’t care what Milton Friedman said on this…raising taxes in an economy with 9.7% unemployment is nuts…that’s point number one…2nd this fits a pattern….his first instinct in dealing with the federal deficit is to raise taxes which points back to my first point…if you like tax increases and want to see a Republican raise then…by all means…Mitch Daniels is the man…3rd this is strike # 2 in his introduction to the nation….first he blew it with his call for a truce in the middle of what was and ongoing truce pissing off social conservatives…second he makes a public pronouncement advocating tax increases to balance the budget pissing off the fiscons…that’s two legs of the stool…I can’t wait to hear him address foreign policy…so far hes shot holes in both feet…I wonder what part of his anatomy he’s going to blow a hole in next?

          Which begs the question…could it be…his political instincts suck or what?

          As far as tax increases go…need we go back to Kennedy, Reagan and Bush II…they proved tax cuts increase revenue…The issue is…the government spent exponentially more…I believe if we cut taxes back to Reagan levels…and hold spending steady…we’ll eliminate the deficit… Entitlements are the issue there and let me plug Daniels for you…maybe he’s the guy to deal with entitlements..he’s got a good record there…but that leaves all my other objections to be dealt with.

          3) As previously stated…the truce was already in place…who was pushing social issues at that time? NO-ONE!! We were working together to move the ball forward…we were all working toward November second…we were moving along…getting along and not making any demands…and along comes Mitch Daniels and blows the whole thing up.

          Let me add…you ignore my point that this was his chance to make a good first impression…(I guess you did say it was bad timing which makes light of it)….but again, it goes to instinct and political acumen…Maybe he isn’t ready for prime time?

          4)subjective or not…the man is BORING…I’m not asking for another Barack Obama….but I don’t think we need another McCain…or a Dole…or a Dukakis,, John Kerry or an Al Gore…personality challenged to a man

          • AceInTX

            Again…the point is…he had a chance to lead on it…and he chose not to…the legislature is working on it…and he could get out in front on the issue and moved the ball on it…he didn’t…he took the coward’s way out by trying to change the subject….he didn’t lead…he stuck his finger in the wind and made the political calculation that something else was more important while the troops were on the field and engaged in the battle…

            leadership matters in a Presidential contest…he didn’t lead…I don’t care why…and I’m not interested in excuses lead follow or get the hell out of the way

          • aesthete

            on an issue important to conservatives (school choice). Again, you can argue that RTW is more important and that Daniels’ strategy is wrong, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that he’s not leading, any more than MacArthur’s island-hopping was him “not leading” the troops to victory over Japan.

          • AceInTX

            and he sat on his hands rather than work on it…I suppose you could say following the legislature isn’t leading..it’s following…you might have a point if you made that argument…(since I’mmaking it…I guess I have a point…heh). But my point is…he could have taken the lead…and pushed it…

            As a SoCon…school choice is very important to me…but I’m looking at two points with RTW that can not be ignored…yet mitch ignored them…

            1) it would break the back of the Unions

            2) it would be good for the economy in bad economic times.

          • JSobieski

            and following the desires of the legislature would make him a follower, not a leader.

          • AceInTX

            but the way I see it is the legislature is like the cavalry who has put themselves in the right position at the right time to enable them to smash into the enemies flank and rout them…and they need a someone to see the opportunity…and lead the charge…

            he missed the opportunity to take the lead

          • acat

            If he’s only going after the 40% (or more) who pay *no* income tax, I am not sure it’s as awful an issue as you’re making it out to be, Ace.

            While I would vote for Daniels in the general, I would also vote for Becker’s dead white cat in the general… regardless of who the Dem is.

            Mew

          • aesthete

            1) I’ll give you the first one (and agree that it is very concerning), but I won’t give you the second: there’s nothing in Daniels’ career, advocacy, or public statements that indicate that he is a class warrior, and that he saw the tax as anything beyond an attempt to raise revenue. As I’ve noted a couple of times (and I’ll try not to hammer Huck too much on this one :P ), both Palin and Huck campaigned on tax increases (in Palin’s case, on the rich and using explicitly classist language), and got those taxes passed. That should be at least as concerning as Daniels’ initial tax in addition to several spending cuts at the beginning of his term. Daniels’ record of taxes is one of some unfortunate proposed tax hikes, and of a package of hikes/cuts that on net resulted in a net cut (just like Reagan, and that is the only Reagan comparison I will make here).

            2) I don’t want tax increases, but they are, in all likelihood, going to happen at some point down the line: Ryan’s Roadmap (supported by Daniels and Palin) proposes futzing with the tax code and introducing a VAT, which would certainly increase taxes for some people, particularly for lower income persons (it would cut some taxes, too). Some tax cuts (particularly a cut on cap gains) would provide revenue. Most at this point probably will not “pay for themselves”, as the saying goes. As a matter of mathematics, it would be exceedingly easy to cut government. As a matter of politics? Not so much. As Reagan put it, the answers to our problems are simple, but they are not easy. I’d like for you to be right, but I highly doubt that we’ll escape tax hikes for at least some groups of people in any politically tenable solution that would cut the deficit, and it is this basic truth to which Daniels is referring. IMO, candidates who aren’t at least thinking very, very seriously about the possibility of tax hikes (even if they’re looking for ways to avoid them) aren’t paying attention.

            3) I agree with you there… the “truce” was a smart idea that was already ongoing, and that was better left implicit than verbalized. I guess I don’t see a tone-deaf — but off-the-cuff, honest, and good — answer as an automatic disqualifier.

            4) Again, depends on the person. I find Pence to be a tiring speaker, myself. I think that the public’s appreciation for silver-tongued pols has already diminished dramatically, and will continue to diminish going into 2012.

            At any rate, I’ll keep my eyes peeled for what will doubtless be a justified evisceration of Romney’s record in your second part, and for your thoughts on Palin as President (which I don’t think I’ve seen in one place) in your third part.

          • AceInTX

            singling out the “Rich makes him a tax warrior…if you don’t agree…then we’ll have to agree to disagree…because that’s the way I see it…and I won’t change my view on the subject.

            second…I’ve conceded the point on Huck without challenge…bringing continuing to bring him up in this context is beside the point…Huck is a non entity as far as I’m concerned unless it comes down to him being a foil for Romney who I but just one notch above McCain and two notches below a snake. More on that in Part 2

            it’s not the packages of hikes/cuts that concern me…if that’s all he’d done I’d be OK on that…but he has two strikes against him on tax cuts…that’s two times he raised the option without first being dragged to it by the Dems…

            Look at it this way…I’m a former Real Estate agent…I’ve worked in Residential as well as commercial Real Estate…and I’m here to tell you…when you go to sit down at the negotiating table across for the big boys with fat check books…and you start out the negotiation by making concessions to the other guy before there is any discussion of what each side needs to be able to make the deal work…they’re gonna laugh you out of the room…bend you over for good measure…send you packing after getting everything they want…and they’re gonna spread the word around the industry about what a pushover you are…and good luck getting a commercial client in commercial real estate business again…because no one will do business with you…

            you walk in…you make your demands…the other guy ,makes his demands…and then you start chipping away…I’ll can make this work on your side if you can give me that on my side…you may know exactly how low you can go…but you give NOTHING away without getting something in return.

            so…here’s Mitch..he may be right that raising taxes is going to have to happen to make the budget work…and he may be willing to give up that issue…but damn it…you don’t walk in and start by saying…I’m willing to give you a tax increase before the other guy has even made his demands!

            and that’s exactly what he’s done…not only has he proved…not once…but twice…that he sees nothing wrong with raising taxes in a bad economy…but he’s done it in such a way that he’s lead with it before anyone has even entered the room…let alone set down to negotiate.

            it’s like leading with your chin,..or blocking a punch with your face so to speak.

    • Bill S
  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    VB

    • AceInTX

      yes…it’s early…As I say…this started as a reply to AG in his announcement of a hiatus and it has grown from there.

      These are my first impressions…and they are very definitely subject to change.

      With the exception of Romney…he’s a non starter for me…as I’ll explain in Part 2. aside from that…all of the above is subject to change…

      part three which is on Sarah Palin is fluid and subject to change. I haven’t written that installment yet…and it may be a little more difficult for me since I am smack in the middle with her at the moment…there is so many good things about her…that I could sell out for her in a second…but there are enough question marks in my mind that I could sell out against her as well…

      we’ll see how that one fleshes out…and it may be a week or more before part 3 emerges…

      • azaeroprof

        I’ll be interested to see how you go on that part. As you probably know, I’ve been in the Palin camp all along. It could a month or two before things settle from Giffords fallout. I won’t even try to predict what the end result will be vis-a-vis Palin. Three possibilities:

        1. Palin will be finished as a candidate. I’m not ready to concede this, and even if I thought it was the most likely possibility, I certainly wouldn’t admit it as that would be playing into the hands of the idiots who are trying to blame this on her. But it is certainly possible that the stain of this will never wash out.

        2. Nothing will change. Those who liked her in the first place will like her even more. Those who hated her will hate her even more. Those in the middle will remain in the middle.

        3. Palin will be strengthened as a potential candidate. The overreach by the lefties will backfire, causing even many conservatives and independents who didn’t particularly like her to come to her defense.

        So which way do you think it will go? I personally have no clue. If you forced me to bet my life savings, I’d bet on #2.

        • Goldwater_Conservative

          the more she stays quiet and the more outrageous these attacks get the more I want to defend her. I’m in the Anyonebutpalin camp but I dont want her going down for something like this.

          • azaeroprof

            on Palin, I respect you for your position on this. I really hope she can resist the urge (which must be overwhelming) to respond to the attacks. What she does here will say much about her true character.

            I’m still kind of torn as to whether we should be tactical and nominate someone “safe” to optimize our chances to beat Obama, or whether we should nominate Palin. That would turn 2012 into essentially our battle for all the marbles between left and right. Currently, I lean toward the latter as I think 80 years of creeping socialism warrants more drastic change.

          • Goldwater_Conservative

            get a “safe” candidate and let the house lead the agenda. Let the new republican president become a rubber stamp for what the house is pushing.

          • azaeroprof

            Gotta have 60+ good senators, though, whichever way we go.

          • Goldwater_Conservative

            who will not veto the conservative agenda if it gets to his desk.

            will not use his executive power to circumvent the legislative process

            will appoint constiutional minded judges

            anything more than that is a bonus, but I think we need at least that out of the office.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
          • redneck_hippie

            a reform-minded candidate who does NOT overpromise and under-deliver. I like it.

          • redneck_hippie

            I don?t want to hear the usual suspects pushing the usual demagoguery on economics, cultural/social issues and national security.

            There must be some way for a candidate to communicate his strengths and accomplishments without attempting to out-populist, out-sermonize and out-hawk the field. You don?t have to want a moderate to believe that our presidential politics have become a modern-day version of the old-time circus barkers.

          • aesthete
          • aesthete

            I could live with that if DeMint and other actual conservatives in the leg are not playing second fiddle to the moderates.

          • Spiral

            This person would be a huge improvement over Obama, especially if we could get both the Senate back into GOP hands.

            It would require a lot of work, however, to reverse the spending spree that has been going on for a long time, under both political parties. It seems that most elected official think that it is easier to get reelected by voting for giveaways rather the leveling with the American people and telling them that there is no free lunch.

          • acat
          • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

            The Tea Party is motivated and ready to go right now. Allowing a “safe” candidate in will dispirit the base and we’ll go right back to McCain depression. The Tea Party could easily break off into a third party, and in all reality that would lead to years of socialist rule as a result of split votes.

          • acat

            The challenge for the Tea Partiers is going to be keeping the fire in the belly stoked that long.

            Mew

          • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

            I meant the 2012 election cycle.

        • aesthete

          of 2 and 3. Most quarters will be unchanged in anything besides intensity, but I think that Palin will also get some unfavorables to move towards neutral. In particular, I think that some conservative, moderate, and independent intellectuals/informed citizens turned off by Palin’s perceived anti-intellectualism will be even more repulsed by what is an obvious lie. They won’t move towards support, mind you, but they will move towards not automatically assuming that any Palin critique is based on truth or good motivations. I have already seen this in the circles I frequent, where even liberal Tucson “moderates” are peeved at liberals, as well as on various chatboards of all political stripes.

          • azaeroprof

            From Palin’s perspective, a drop in negative intensity is good. She doesn’t need to win independents over at this point, she just needs to “soften” them up to where they’ll give her a fair look during the campaign (assuming she even runs, which I’m less sure of).

          • AceInTX

            they may open some people’s eyes to the fact that they’ve been propagandized into holding a lot of negative positions on her…and it will give her an opportunity to reintroduce herself to some folks who were closed to her before the overreach!

            I may work some of this into part 3

          • AceInTX
        • AceInTX

          as it is…I think she’s handled this as well as she could…she hasn’t lashed out…she’s put work out through Beck that she’s hurt and disappointed by this…and I think we’re a couple days away from seeing a tremendous backlash that will (at the least) consume her enemies and the ghouls who have used this tragedy in a cynical and opportunistic way to forward an illegitimate debate…even if it doesn’t accrue to her benefit

          BTW…are the Dems really going to come after gun control after the most massive shellacking they’ve seen in 70 years?…

          REALLY???

          Bring it on guys…1994 happened to a large extent because of the gun ban fever that ensued after boy Clinton took office….

          Please…I beg you…come after our guns with more intrusive laws…You remember TN used to be a blue state don’t you?…Oh…and WV was as blue a blue state as could be before 1994…but she’s turning purple because of the gun grabbers

          Gun bans will go nowhere in the House…but I want to see you all continue to beat that drum…please!

          • azaeroprof

            “Please don’t throw me in that briar patch!”

            Oh, sorry. Racist story quote. :)

          • AceInTX

            on Gun Control?

          • azaeroprof
      • lineholder

        I’m a female and a Christian female at that. I’ve got a lot of questions about having Palin as President.

        First, there’s the issue that a lot of Christians consider about females being in positions of authority. I’ve given this a lot of thought. If it comes down to a choice between a female who displays moral integrity and a male who displays none, I’ll go with the female. I will take the person’s character into context rather than look at it in the context of sex alone.

        As a female, I’m well aware of the fact that there can be times when females are inclined to respond more emotionally to situations than men do. We can let our emotions get the better of us. Our outlook on the situation can become distorted. We can get our priorities out of order and it influences the choices that we make.

        It can take a lot of both self-control and discernment for a female to separate herself from her emotions enough to look at a situation as a whole from an objective viewpoint and to make wise choices on that basis.

        I know that may not seem like a big issue to males considering a female candidate, but for females considering a female candidate, it can be.

        There have been times when Palin has let herself be baited into responding to situations and all I see in it is an emotional response rather than a wise response. It would have been wiser to just let them make some of these kinds of efforts and leave them hanging in the wind rather than respond to it.

        I’m not totally against considering her as a candidate, but just on the basis of how she’s responded to some situations, I have a lot of questions about how much wisdom she will display in the choices she makes.

        I’m looking forward to reading your take on the possibility of having her as a candidate.

        • redneck_hippie

          Guess we’re going to be inundated with these from now on.

          http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/huckabee-strong-in-iowa.html

          • lineholder

            will be hitting this issue really heavy for a while.

            There’s just so much at stake right now that I’m not much inclined to let polling results influence the choice that I make.

            BTW, you’re #1 option is mine as well at the moment. I know the odds are against him, but he’s my first option all the same.

          • AceInTX

            they do it with Polls…the top three or for are all that matters…they’ll use these polls to drive name recognition and to build momentum for the establishment choice

          • lineholder

            on a grassroots level? Suggests appreciated.

          • AceInTX
          • lineholder

            sorry, but my impression of him at this point is that he falls into the “compassionate conservative” category.

            He’s more of a compromiser than a leader. I just don’t see him as being what our country genuinely needs right now.

          • Goldwater_Conservative

            your thinking really impresses me. I could give super Dittos to everything you have said.

          • lineholder
          • redneck_hippie

            of him, since he has been in the public eye for years now. I made my opinions pretty well known during the last cycle, so really at this point I don’t care to pile on. As I’ve said, there was only one person I considered for my #1 pick last cycle, but this time there are approximately 4 that would make me more than happy to support. Decisions! Decisions!

            That said, the nation is bankrupt. Who will tell people the truth about what the direction will be? Who will paint a rosy scenario that can’t possibly come about? We are grown-ups and we are prepared to face a less intrusive, leaner government. In fact we must have it.

          • lineholder

            A lot depends on how we approach this situation. It is possible that we could look at the crisis our nation is facing as an opportunity to overcome adversity, to face it in a positive context of one of the greatest challenges we could ever face in our lifetime.

            Are we capable of succeeding? Absolutely!!! But words alone aren’t going to be enough this time. I wholeheartedly agree with the points you’ve made in other posts where this is concerned.

            Actions speak louder than words. If “sucking it up and biting the bullet” is what it is going to take to save our nation, then we had better be prepared to not only speak the truth but to back it up with our actions.

            You’re right. It has to be that way now. We have to display that kind of courage and conviction.

            We need a leader who won’t be afraid to show us the way.

          • AceInTX

            I’ll vote for him as a last resort to stop Romney…but that’s about it

        • AceInTX

          It strtikes me as a little odd that it’s conservative Women who most put the emotional response issue front and center

          You can look at Margaret Thatcher, Endira Ghandi, Golda Mier are a few of the women leaders I can think of off the top of my head that I could back in a second..Look at England under Queen Elizabeth I ..the one for whom an entire era is named after comes to mind…she made England a mighty nation in her Reign as queen

          • lineholder

            that it strikes you as being odd that conservative females would question this.

            The only thing that I can think of to correlate this to would be the male ego. I find the male ego totally baffling, but then again, I’m not a man. You are a man, and you probably instinctively understand the male ego far better than I do.

            Suppose a male candidate is running who is strong in conservative principles, but when you start looking at how that man responds to situations, you see that he lets his ego get the better of him more than he should sometimes. To a female, it might not be that obvious, but to you as another male, it could be.

            It doesn’t mean that the man would not or could not prove themselves to be a strong leader, but could it cause you to question how well they can keep their ego in check day in and day out? Could you question to what extent that man might let this ego cloud his ability to make wise choices?

          • aesthete

            She was an awful PM who started a war and furthered socialism in India. She was also rather corrupt, to boot.

        • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

          specifically from my mother. It seems that many like Huckabee, I suppose that’s because he seems to be able to connect emotionally while still thinking through decisions? That’s why I think it’s really interesting Palin is going to be the headliner at a Women of Joy conference in Oklahoma City in April.

          • AceInTX

            to say I find it odd isn’t quite what I meant…it’s common with the ladies I know in church…

            I should have said I find it curious…..odd isn’t the right word because there is nothing extraordinary about it…the opinion seems to pervade the thinking of ladies in my church

      • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

        No question about it, this latest attack by the left has definitely hurt her in the short run, regardless of the truth. Palin is the #1 lighting rod for the left and right now she is shielding other candidates by taking all the hits. I thought the left wanted her to win the primary because they thought she would be a weak general election candidate… apparently this is not the case any more. However, in the long run, this could play out ok for her. Palin was a bit overexposed, and if she decides to wait until August or so to throw her hat in the ring (she obviously doesn’t have a problem with name recognition and the campaign organization would fall into place very quickly), perhaps a dampening of spirits regarding Palin for a few months will give her a chance to duck the bombshells for a while.

        • AceInTX

          they fear her like no other…and it shows

  • harpsichord

    “He?ll have to overcome not only the Congressional Curse, (Americans as a rule don?t elect Presidents from the Senate, or especially Congress to become POTUS)”

    The Senate is part of Congress. It bothers me when people refer to the House of Representative as “Congress”. Needles to say, I am bothered a lot!

    • AceInTX

      I believe, in the context of what I was saying, I was using the term correctly…

      I’ve always thought that Congress can mean both houses of the legislature…OR it can refer to the lower body alone…depending on context.

      I’m willing to concede the point if my understanding is incorrect.

      • chbroussard
      • harpsichord

        Dictionary.com:

        Congress:
        [n. kong-gris; v. kuhn-gres, kuhng-] Show IPA

        ?noun
        1. ( initial capital letter )
        a. the national legislative body of the U.S., consisting of the Senate, or upper house, and the House of Representatives, or lower house, as a continuous institution.
        b. this body as it exists for a period of two years during which it has the same membership: the 96th Congress.
        c. a session of this body: to speak in Congress.
        2. the national legislative body of a nation, esp. of a republic.
        3. a formal meeting or assembly of representatives for the discussion, arrangement, or promotion of some matter of common interest.
        4. the act of coming together; an encounter; meeting.
        5. an association, esp. one composed of representatives of various organizations.
        6. familiar relations; dealings; intercourse.
        7. coitus; sexual intercourse.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    ….less effect than you think. Once those debates start, all bets are off. Activists know exactly who these “unknowns” are, and primary momentum cones from the activists. It is totally possible for a guy to be relatively unknown by the great unwashed, and by the time December 2011 comes around he’s a household name.

    • AceInTX

      I wouldn’t compare Pance or Cain to Obama because I know enough not to…but to people that don’t do politics every available moment like some of us…that’s a different story.

      I hope I’m wrong about Pence…and I pray Barbour can overcome the issues I cover here…I could be very happy going full bore for either of them next year

    • luciusacius

      That being said, what about John Bolton? No executive experience other than running a shop at DOJ, but having read the piece on him in the Dec. 31, 2010 National Review by John Nordlinger, he intrigues me. I also think that this may be the one election cycle that a well known strong conservative outsider, or non-traditional sourced candidate would do well. Any thoughts?

      • AceInTX

        time will tell

  • olsmithie

    from the last primaries to consider again.
    There was only one candidate who was saying the same things that he had been saying 10 years before, and he dropped out of the primary races.

    It is extremely discouraging to have to pick from a slate of candidates that require an asterisk and an explanation when describing them as a conservative.

    There are true conservatives out there that support all three legs of the stool. I see no reason conservatives have to “settle for” as we have in recent decades.
    Of course, MSM will try to promote the least electable candidate in the Republican primaries, much as happened in the last election.

    Conservatives must not be taken in by the media again, education and constant scrutiny will be essential to achieving that goal.

    Regards

  • redneck_hippie

    My top 3 haven’t changed (yet). I read that Palin was the first potential candidate to endorse Ryan’s road map. Daniels (I think?) has said he supports the broad outline of the plan. I am going to listen to the Daniels state of the union address this evening online (WLSam(dot)com. The reason I still have Daniels as my #2 is that he was on radio at 7 am this morning and he said nothing to either move him up or down in my list. (Pence=1 and Palin=3).

    I will not change my perception of or support for Palin vis a vis this week’s media circus. Because LSM have made themselves ridiculous to even more people, has no effect on me. Maybe it helps that I don’t have a tv. I’ll be comparing my reactions to Daniels’ audio only versus any YT vids that appear later.

    I am going to back off of my statements on certain candidates (you probably know exactly who I mean), until we know who it is that is running (with the exception of HWSNBN).

    • AceInTX
      • redneck_hippie
  • LisaDe

    very much. I am one who also believes that Herman Cain is one to look at but I think that he might very well end up in the White House as a V.P. to either Barbour or Pence. He will be a force to be reckoned with but may not have the name to go all the way – at first. His name will come to light when the campaigning really begins and I believe he and Barbour will take the spotlight.

    When I saw Zogby’s latest poll, Christie was the only one who had the numbers to beat Obama, it seemed that the others all split the rest between them. There is alot of work to be done.

    • redneck_hippie

      Their reputation isn’t up to par with the telephone polls. (It’s internet only).

      • LisaDe

        I know, but still, Christie’s name was there. Cain’s was not. Waiting for a similar poll from Rasmussen, but I guess its still too early.

        • redneck_hippie

          But to be honest all I recall is that the well known, well established candidates are leading. I think it was 1) Romney 2) Huckabee and 3) Palin.

          It’s hard to go through this period where we don’t know who wants to run and the media keep pushing the same old names.

          I have a feeling Iowa will be more important than last time. If the newer faces can’t get any traction there, it will certainly put a scare into me.

          • LisaDe

            I’m thinking that it may all be up to US to get their names out. With a little bit of hepl from the liberal media as well. If they are frightened of them, that is. After all, who ever heard of Palin before the media became obsessed and scared.

            I’m feeling pretty good about Cain’s chances after all is said and done. I’m thinking that Christie took over that poll just because of the media. They do fear him and they may just fear Cain too.

          • redneck_hippie

            they fear. For 2 years, while they had complete control of the gov’t.,, they became used to running wild with their accusations and lies. Then they got the mother of all smack-downs at the polls.

            Perhaps they think that what they are doing now is their turn for backlash. They can’t get it through their devious minds that we surround them. Not only surround, but we are on the side of morality and have more at stake than material gain or fame.

          • graciegirl

            that once Romney, Huck and Palin start the race ahead SO many excellent people will not attempt to compete: Ryan, Jindal, even Pence.

            If people coud see them in the debates their stature would go way up and they could become real contenders. Once Palin is in doubt they will even try. Naturally Rubio is too new to the scene BUT I would definitely take him as VP with a strong Prez.

            Somehow we have to keep from getting stuck with Romney or Huck. and for some of us Palin. I could really see Pence/Jindal; Pence/Ryan.

            It should NOT be decided in Iowa. Is there not a new rule that if you move your primary up your delegates are counted individually, not winner take all?
            WHAT is wrong with the primaries being on the same day?

        • AceInTX

          (Shrugging shoulders)

          • JadedByPolitics

            I mean no one knew who he was and in a couple of weeks he was off to the races, with money from almost every State across the Country. Trust me Ace when Cain says its a go you will know and so will the whole of the USA :)

          • AceInTX
          • lineholder

            he could easily be a contender.

          • acat

            is on the same station EE’s is now on, yes? 50,000 watt clear-channel, yes?

            Not sure what kind of ratings Cain gets, but .. that’s not an insignificant megaphone. Not nationwide, but certainly regional….

            And he’d absolutely pulverize Obama in the debates….

            And I’m sure it’d also help fracture the so-called African-American Bloc …

            Mew

          • lineholder

            especially the last one.

  • Scope

    In addition to his crosshairs statement against Palin, I believe he just said it has been historically men standing on the stage of Presidential candidates, with dark suits and maroon ties. Is this guy a serious candidate?

    • acat

      I can’t take this statement by Pawlenty seriously. For someone who had my hopes up last year, he’s quite disappointing.

      Mew

    • lineholder

      some sense of context? Did he make a disclaimer after the fact or did he just leave the comment dangling?

      What could he have hoped to accomplish by making that statement? Or was it just a case of “Hey, let me see how far I can shove my foot down my own throat?”

      • JadedByPolitics

        and said that to run he needed to add more to the debate when up on the stage that HOPEFULLY was men and women but which had previously been men in dark suits and all in burgundy ties; there was nothing untoward about what he said. As well his comments on using the scope sites on states was of course blown out of proportion by who else but the same Media Wing of the Democrat Party that has attacked all of US. I think Pawlenty is a big vanilla wafer personally but I would rather beat up on him for policy reasons then what the media is making up about him!

    • AceInTX

      No surprise here

      • pilgrim
        • AceInTX

          Of course we all knew he picked her because he HAD to since the right was in open revolt at the idea of him picking Graham, Pawlenty or Lieberman for VP

          But right after the election when asked if Sarah could be president and if he’d endorse her he wouldn’t say anything one way or the other about Sarah as he sent his surrogates out to trash her…but he did name Pawlenty as someone he’d like to see as POTUS…

          I marked that one down in my mind at that moment that Pawlenty was his favorite and therefore radioactive

  • Flagstaff

    Your favorite?

    I hate the “electable” label, but I do insist that a candidate be not only intelligent but also intelligible. Among Northerners who don’t already know him the reaction will be, “Did this guy have a stroke?”

    That’s my honest opinion, and I like Haley’s ideas.

    • acat
      • Flagstaff

        Jimmuh Cahtuh is closer, and he won, too.

        It isn’t the accent, it’s the delivery and the competition. But fair enough. See my response to Ace just below.

        • acat

          I’d bet money (or crumpets, if you prefer) that Barbour still has the private phone numbers for many of the Republican blue-blooded crumpet-eaters…. and if he can do better than Huck (losing to Palin) in Iowa and reasonably well in New Hampshire (losing to Romney) they’ll start admitting that they’re taking his calls….

          Barbour is second to Pence, I think, in terms of ability to appeal both to the Establishment and the Tea Parties… certainly better than, say, Thune. I think Ace nailed it – if Barbour can get some hardball questions in the debate and handle them, he’s got a shot at a good enough showing in Iowa and New Hampshire to be a contender…. and I could definitely support him.

          Mew

          • Flagstaff

            never, never, NEVER.

          • acat

            Thune. {spit}

            Mew

    • AceInTX

      but they don’t win elections…they proved that with Dole, McCain and a bunch of other losers…

      Barbour has a down home way of speaking that people in fly over country can identify with…

      if you’re to gentrified to understand that…that’s your loss

      • Flagstaff

        Maybe some did.

        It’s clear that anybody CAN be elected. I hope we never have better proof than the current occupant of the White House, and as I said, I like Haley’s ideas. I should also have added that I like Haley, too. But he does have a different kind of problem than other hopefuls, and it’s the kind that has to be surmounted first before he gets a chance to present his advantages.

        **I think he?ll destroy anyone in the debates? assuming, of course, the debates aren?t so crowded that he ever get?s a chance to speak. I?ve seen him deal with smart alack reporters and answer questions in a way that are not open to question. he?s quick on his feet and can turn a phrase in such a way that leaves those who would challenge him sitting in a corner drooling on themselves. **

        I like that. It is a switch from the past, for sure.

        I wonder if that talent would have helped against Obama last time. Would enough people have been listening? Maybe this time they’ll listen.

        I don’t think I’ll be deserting my personal philosophy that I’ll support candidates I agree with and like, not an “electable” squish.

        Re: Smart aleck reporters and debates–Perhaps our new RNC chairman should arrange to stage our own debates, set up to make sure each candidate gets a chance to show his stuff. Don’t leave it up to Katie Couric or David Gregory to ask pertinent questions of the right people.

        I also want to see if our guys will all stand up against the Iowa corn-ethanol lobby right off the bat, or if some or all will cave to the lobby. If one can’t do that, he won’t be strong enough to stand up for rest of us in other areas.

        BTW, I’m far from being part of the “raised pinkey finger tea and crumpet crowd,” but I don’t think you meant me, anyway. For continued success, however, I do think we need to keep some of those folks on our side. Haley will need to get through to them.

    • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
      • gekster

        LOL

        • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

          Four states from Dixie interpreted JFK’s “Alabamer” construction and voted for him…need I say more?

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

            the more correct “ain’t”, not to mention the second person plural, “y’all”.

            If Heaven ain’t a lot like Dixie, I don’t wanna go!

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

            conservatives could conclude that having to dumb down the message for those yankee rubes is why we are in such a poor state of affairs in these United States.\\smile

          • gekster

            If you consider it a sport to gather your food by drilling through 18 inches of ice and sitting there all day hoping that the food will swim by, you might live in Michigan .

            If you’re proud that your region makes the national news 96 nights each year because Pellston is the coldest spot in the nation, you might live in Michigan .

            If your local Dairy Queen is closed from November through March, you might live in Michigan .

            If you instinctively walk like a penguin for five months out of the year, you might live in Michigan .

            If someone in a store offers you assistance, and they don’t work there, you might live in Michigan .

            If your dad’s suntan stops at a line curving around the middle of his forehead, you might live in Michigan ..

            If you have worn shorts and a coat at the same time, you might live in Michigan .

            If your town has an equal number of bars and churches, you might live in Michigan .

            If you have had a lengthy telephone conversation with someone who dialed a wrong number, you might live in Michigan .

            Part 2 – You know you’re a true MICHIGANIAN/ MICHIGANDER when

            1. “Vacation” means going up north on I-75.

            2. You measure distance in hours.

            3. You know several people who have hit a deer more than once.

            4. You often switch from “heat” to “A/C” in the same day.

            5. You can drive 65 mph through 2 feet of snow during a raging blizzard, without flinching.

            6. You see people wearing camouflage at social events (including weddings).

            7. You install security lights on your house and garage and leave both unlocked.

            8. You carry jumper cables in your car and your girlfriend knows how to use them.

            9. You design your kid’s Halloween costume to fit over a snowsuit.

            10. Driving is better in the winter because the potholes are filled with snow.

            11. You know all 4 seasons: almost winter, winter, still winter and road construction.

            12. You can identify a southern or eastern accent.

            13. Your idea of creative landscaping is a statue of a deer next to your blue spruce.

            14. You were unaware that there is a legal drinking age.

            15. Down South to you means Ohio .

            16. A brat is something you eat.

            17. Your neighbor throws a party to celebrate his new pole barn.

            18. You go out to a fish fry every Friday.

            19. Your 4th of July picnic was moved indoors due to frost.

            20. You have more miles on your snow blower than your car.

            21. You find 0 degrees “a little chilly.”

            22. You drink pop and bake with soda.

            23. Your doctor tells you to drink Vernors and you know it’s not medicine.

            24. You can actually drink Vernors without coughing.

            25. You know what a Yooper is.

            26. You think owning a Honda is Un-American.

            27. You know that UP is a place, not a direction.

            28. You know it’s possible to live in a thumb.

            29. You understand that when visiting Detroit , the best thing to wear is a Kevlar vest.

            The only thing I can say is, they all really apply.

          • Flagstaff

            are very accurate.

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
          • gekster

            Thats like equating San Francisco with Southerners.

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

            damn yankees! – smile

          • penguin2

            in NYC. But her mama is a native New Yorker, though of Virginia now. :)

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
        • Flagstaff
          • gekster
      • Scope

        especially the ones who say sodr and pappa clips.

        • Scope

          the Lonk Islanters.

          • pilgrim

          • redneck_hippie
          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • acat

    Pence or Barbour, of course.

    I am hoping you tear Romney apart. The Bob Kjellander link told me most of what I needed to know about Mitt. Kjellander is part of the problem, part of the corruption that is bleeding out the Land of Lincoln, and was Mitt’s campaign guy in the State. Your google-fu may also need the phrase “illinois combine”, which refers to the corruption running across party lines.

    Not sure about Palin myself. I want to support her – great narrative – but… well, you know the rest and there’s really no point in re-hashing it here. Looking forward to what you’ve got to say.

    Mew

  • jerry39

    Of the primary problem, the difficulty of one of your top picks (which are also my top picks) making it through ahead of Romney / Huckabee. The simple question is will she understand her best role? I see it as two-fold. First is decoy and second is king maker. The more she is ravaged by the media, the more she is unlikely to win a general for President. Not soley because of the media’s credibility, but combined with the few gaffes that are legitimate. Meanwhile, those who love her grow more defensive of her and more resolved in their support for her and opposed to the media. Unfortunately, there are not enough of them to carry the day for her. But by remaining the target du-jour, Palin creates a diversion for Pence or Barbour to gain strength while not being the center of attack. When the time is right Palin announces that it is in the best interest of the country to elect one of these two true conservatives. Perhaps she even brokers this deal to the establishment, so that Pence or Barbour is receiving establishment support well before Palin makes her sacrifice. I don?t know if she will understand this is the best course of action for the country. I believe she is sincere when she claims she will base her decision on what is best for the country. I think if she is sincere and if she sees it, a Pence or Barbour can win.

    • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

      Sounds like a plan straight from the top. But do you think after all Palin has done for conservatives and the GOP that she or her supporters will be content to maker her a sacrificial lamb? Somehow I don’t think that will go over well. I certainly don’t want to throw Palin to the lions.

      • jerry39

        Not in the sense that she is being made into one intentionally. If I thought she had a high chance of winning, or even that her parctipation wouldn’t force us into a Romney or worse situation, or loss in the general then I would say go all in. I just don’t see it. If I’m right and she sees it too, then its a sacrifice only in the sense that her efforts don’t benefit her in the sense of being pres. But if her goal is a solid conservative being elected, as she says it is, she could make that happen and I don’t think anyone else in the world has that power. I think her supporters would see that too, if she explained it.

  • Flagstaff

    I just read this again.

    Not to say I agree with everything, but I missed one item the first time. About Mitch Daniels you said:

    “I?m skeptical of his instincts.”

    This is the real problem with many of our possibles. For those who don’t like Romney, it’s probably the gut feeling behind their dislike. Same for the Huckster, in my case, and for the other huckster, too (Trump). et al.

    OTOH, the opposite feeling is perhaps the driving force behind those who love Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann, even among those who wouldn’t prefer them for Pres. We still trust their instincts. And Herman Cain.

    Pawlenty’s lukewarm support so far? Lukewarm confidence in his conservative instincts.

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