Lots of polls yesterday and so far today. Here are my thoughts:
- Colorado: PPP: Obama up 1, Insider Advantage: Obama up 3. The only poll McCain has led recently in a worthless CNN/Time Registered voter poll. For now, let’s go ahead and put Colorado as "Leans Obama"
- Michigan: Insider Advantage: McCain by 1, Rasmussen: Obama by 5. Inconclusive and Rasmussen’s an outlier here with recent polls showing Obama leads of 1 and 2 points. Still toss-up.
- Ohio: Strategic Vision: McCain by 4, Quinnipiac: Obama by 5, Insider Advantage: McCain by 1. Quinnipiac is an outlier with recent polling data. Still Leans McCain.
- Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac: Obama by 3. This 3 state polls showing Obama up by 2 or 3. Still, I have to call this, Leans Obama. McCain hasn’t led any poll since April.
- Nevada: Insider Advantage: McCain by 1. Still toss-up.
- Washington: Rasmussen: Obama by 2. With the choice of Governor Palin, you’ve got to watch these Pacific Northwest States to see if Obama’s lead shrinks. In this case, Obama’s lead has dropped 10 points. This poll goes along with a Survey USA poll showing Obama up by only 4. Still, it’s only 2 polls, we’ll see if this develops further.
- North Carolina: Civitas/Tel Opinion: McCain by 3 and Research 2000: McCain by 17. The state can’t seem to make up its mind. Survey USA had McCain by 20, Public Policy Polling had McCain by 4. Either it’s the biggest surprise swing state or it’s heading the direction of other States where Obama tried but ultimately failed to gain traction. Leans McCain.
- Florida: Insider Advantage: McCain by 8, Quinnipiac: McCain by 7. Obviously the pollsters are just trying to get back at me for saying this one was in play.
- Georgia: It was one of Obama’s target states that bit the dust. Insider Advantage: McCain by 18. Strategic Vision: McCain by 13.
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Dan Spencer
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Caleb Howe
Daniel Horowitz
New Mexico
ToddH (Diary) Friday, September 12th at 7:43AM EDT (link)I think you can place New Mexico as Leans McCain, or at the very least Toss-Up. Out of the three latest polls in the states McCain leads in two of them, +2 and +4 respectively, whereas the only poll that Obama leads is the worthless CNN/Time by 13 points, which is a major outlier and is skewing the RCP average to Obama.
“Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser. Americans despise cowards. Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Americans have never lost nor will ever lose a war; for the very idea of losing is hateful to an American.”–General George S. Patton.
Colorado will slowly slide right.
NightTwister (Diary) Friday, September 12th at 8:50AM EDT (link)McCain is picking up Independents, and there are a lot of them. Not a lot of Hillary supporters, so he probably won’t gain any ground there. Palin helps with the soccer moms.
I think the biggest issue in Colorado is Energy, as can be seen by Mark Udall’s sudden interest in all of the above. Not the Republican solution mind you, but he’s a poll freak and the polls are telling him he needs to do something here. There’s a lot of good jobs to be had here in shale oil exploration, and Colorado is hurting for jobs right now.
“Baseball fits America well because it expresses our longing for the rule of law while licensing our resentment of law givers.” ― Major League Commissioner of Baseball A. Bartlett Giamatti