Between 8:45 PM and 9:15 PM tonight (Oct on Intrade, someone just bet a LOT of money against Obama winning the presidency. And I mean a LOT. Over $140,000…

His stock, which has been over 70 for a couple of days now and at 76 most of the time today dipped down to 64 or so in those 20 minutes under heavy betting before recovering immediately after 9:15 to 73… Very strange.. is there something someone knows??

This stuff does not happen unless someone knows something….and the news is about to leak out soon.

Anyone care to make predictions on what this could be?

I have been thinking for some time now that your three most important states for 2008 are Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia. Take a look at the map above. This is my guess as to how the map will shake out. It’s a foregone conclusion that New Mexico and Iowa go blue this cycle. This leaves really 3 states that will play a crucial role in determining the next President. Let’s take a look at three plausible scenarios :

Scenario ONE

Michigan (17) flips to Republicans
Virginia (13) flips to Democrats

This leaves the race 269-260 Republicans. Therefore, Colorado decides the election. If Colorado stays red, McCain is your next President. If Colorado goes blue, there would be a 269-269 tie. McCain then wins based on a vote of 29-22 (each state gets one vote).

Scenario TWO

Michigan (17) stays with Democrats
Virginia (13) stays with Republicans
Nevada (5) flips to Democrats

This leaves the race 269-260 Democrats. Once again, it’s Colorado that will decide this election. If NV(5) does somehow go blue, Colorado would still give the Republicans the 269-269 tie that would be a win.

Scenario Three

Ohio (20) flips to Democrats

In this scenario, Republicans would need to win all three of CO, MI, and VA to retain the White House.

There are a few wildcards at play. Nevada and Montana. Obama is polling well here as of now, but these states are reliably Republican and I feel will stay Red in November.

If Ohio and/or Florida go blue, Obama will win this election. However, Obama’s not making inroads with core constituencies in either state so it’s an uphill battle for him.

In conclusion, you can see why CO, MI, and VA are essential for John McCain. Being competitive in these 3 states ultimately will decide this election. I believe this is why Tim Kaine and Mitt Romney will be your Vice President selections.

Kaine is going to be asked to do one thing….deliver Virginia. If he can do that, then Obama only needs to then retain Michigan to become President.

However, this is also why I think McCain is going to counter with Romney. Romney is the only Republican who CAN deliver Michigan to the Republicans. Romney is also very well liked in Colorado and Nevada, and will go a long way in keeping these states Red.

So folks, remember…..as Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia go……………so goes the Presidency.

Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado are THE most important states this cycle. This is why Romney and Kaine are going to be the veeps.

2004 Kerry States would give Obama 252 EV’s.

If Michigan goes red, Obama is down to 235. Obama would then need to pick up IA (7), NM (5), CO (9), and VA (13) to get him to 269 which would give him the Presidency in a tiebreaker.

Hence, Michigan and VA are the keys….along with Colorado….for Obama. Obama can lose OH, FL, AND MI so long as he picks up IA, NM, CO, and VA.

AS for McCain, this is the rationale as to why Romney will be the pick. Even if you cede VA, NM, and IA…that leaves CO that you’ve gotta hold. Who out of the potential veeps does well in CO, as well as Michigan in which McCain needs?

It’s Romney. And it’s a no brainer. Kaine is Obama’s effort at doubling down in a state he needs to go blue.

Obama can even win IA(7), NM(5), NV(5), VA(13), but he still does not get the Presidency without CO if McCain picks up MI.

So, in conclusion….Michigan and Colorado are your 2 biggest battlegrounds for John McCain. It’s obvious which candidate not only is strong in these two states, but which one can actually deliver them red.

Willard Mitt Romney.