I’ve been out of the country for a few weeks and haven’t posted much in a while.  I just wanted to say how exciting it has been to see the great work that the activist community and the grassroots have been doing fighting the government takeover of Health Care.  I’m honestly stunned at how effective it has been, I didn’t think we had much of a chance on this, and I realize it is far from over, but we at least have a chance of avoiding anything we won’t be able to fix later.  What is even better, having had a chance to watch at a bit of a distance, is that this is NOT being driven from the top.  “Astroturfing” my a**!  This has been our Senators and congresscritters and even a few of the Blue Dogs being pushed by YOU.

Once again, thank you all.

On the national stuff, a pox on all their houses.  Even as a non Palin fan, the way the media treated her was unconscionable.  Yes we know politics is a bloodsport, but you destroy someone *politically* you don’t destroy them *personally.”  In a rational world, there are a few people out there that Todd would have had every right to beat the crap out of.  McCain used her.  She wasn’t ready for prime time and he knew it.  Staff started leaking stuff about her ..DURING THE ELECTION.  You just don’t do that.  I can’t think of another national candidate backstabbed by staff before voting day. 

She did bring a lot of this on herself.  A number of her advisers were already underqualified when she was mayor of Wasilla.  What in the world was she thinking when she helped feed the shark attack by talking to the tabloids????  Another negative is that to a large extent she was brought down by a couple of local bloggers in a version of the unpopular girls taking out the popular cheerleader in a catfight.  Now the dems have another weapon, we don’t play that game well, this age truly is the Revenge of the Nerds. 

The final piece of this has been her cult followers (and NO I’m NOT saying that every Palin supporter is a cultist).  Obviously we want votes wherever we can get them but the cultists just managed to make us look bad, sometimes fight amongst ourselves, and distract us from more important things.  Whatever break she is taking from politics ..Single issue Palinbots …PLEASE …find a new hobby!  Build a shrine to Michael Jackson.  Memorize 19th century baseball statistics become an expert in the Japanese game of Go (I especially recommend this one), just move on to whatever the inevitable next interest/fad/religion is.  If you can recruit a Ron Paul nut or two to go with you so much the better.  You will doing Republicans a favor, you will be doing sane conservatives a favor, you will even be doing Gov. Palin a favor.  At this rate it is a matter of time before some unrequited worshipper tries to pull a Mark David Chapman on her.

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Dear Neighbors,

           Today Exxon and TransCanada announced a joint agreement between those companies to do pipeline preparation work together.  The Governor’s Commissioners of Revenue and Natural Resources held a press conference supporting the agreement.  The Governor issued a press release.  OK, maybe I didn’t make that sound interesting – many on all sides are over-hyping the greatness/awfulness/positives/negatives of today’s announcement.  I’m not going to help them. 

           Here’s an early analysis I wrote on what the agreement means (http://alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/energy/1234-we-must-base-exxon-transcanada-proposal-on-merits-not-politics-).  It doesn’t mean there will be a pipeline tomorrow.  It doesn’t mean that Exxon, Conoco and British Petroleum won’t try to block a pipeline, or that they won’t support one.  Today’s announcement doesn’t answer any of those questions.  It does mean TransCanada is continuing to meet their commitments to the State of Alaska to move forward with planning this project, and to try to make it a reality.  But they were doing that already, on the schedule required by the law the Legislature passed last year.

So where are we?

           As has been the case since the Legislature issued TransCanada a license to plan and move ahead with a gas pipeline, the billion dollar question is this:  Will the major oil companies, which hold the leases to Alaska’s largest known reserves of natural gas, sell their gas into a gas pipeline? 

           The answer is this, as I’ve written in the past (http://www.newsminer.com/news/2009/may/23/gas-line-challenge-coming/?opinion).  This pipeline will move forward when the major oil companies commit to sell their gas to this project.  They have publicly stated – and Exxon subtly repeated this today during their press conference – that they will try to force tax and other financial concessions from the state in exchange for selling their gas.  If they demand unreasonable concessions, we either have to accept them, or resist them and, if that doesn’t work, threaten to sue.  

           They risk a lot if litigation occurs, as do we.  Under Alaska law, if they refuse to sell gas to an economic gas pipeline project, we likely have the right to cancel their North Slope leases for natural gas, and bid them to companies willing to sell gas into a pipeline.  They have what the law calls a “duty to produce”.  If we litigate, the state risks delay, and Exxon, Conoco and BP risk losing leases worth over $10 billion in future profit to them.  There’s risk for both sides if we litigate.  And, my guess is that as long as we stand strong, they will ultimately agree to sell their gas – their shareholders will demand it, and demand that they not risk losing billions of dollars worth of lease interests.

           So, what happened today?  Exxon agreed to help TransCanada pay for pipeline design, and preparation work.  Not much more.  Not much less.  It’s work TransCanada was obligated to do under the contract we signed with them last year.  It’s work that would have been done absent this agreement.  The more important information is in the tea leaves we are left to read.  Does this mean Exxon is willing to sell their gas, and Conoco and BP aren’t?  Have the oil companies developed conflicting interests?  Hard to know.  What we do know is that this agreement doesn’t change a lot on its face.  And we know all three companies will try to extract concessions from the state before next year’s “open season”, when they have to announce whether they’ll sell gas into a pipeline.

           One other thing.  Under Alaska law, TransCanada can, with state approval, sell an interest in the pipeline to any third party they want – PROVIDED they get state consent.  At this point TransCanada has not sold any of its interest in this project.  And if it does, I have been promised by TransCanada personnel dating back to 2008 that they are not interested in ever selling a majority stake to Exxon.  But if a sale occurs, we’ll have a raucous debate then.

           And we have to remember this.  Today’s agreement doesn’t change the law we passed in 2008.  Under the law, TransCanada’s pipeline has to allow for fair access by competing independent gas producers.  It has to allow for fair cost access to the pipeline so we can take gas off the line for Alaska’s communities.  It has to promote Alaska and union hire through a Project Labor Agreement.

           In the end, we need to read the terms of any agreement between TransCanada and Exxon to make sure the state’s interests are being protected.  We need to put aside the hype – by those who want to kill this project in favor of a competing Denali project owned by British Petroleum and Conoco.  We need to put aside the hype by the Governor’s national campaign supporters that this is somehow a deal-creating announcement.  We need to put aside the temptation by those who don’t like the Governor to criticize this agreement, out of dislike for the Governor’s politics or national ambitions.  That is, we need to put politics aside.  OK, one can dream. 

           The truth is that there will be lots of chatter about those from all sides, and from people with all sorts of agendas.  I only ask that you keep your eye on the prize.  What’s best to move a pipeline project forward?

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I w

1) Todd’s half sister was arrested for 2 burglaries apparently with her 4 y/o daughter in tow.

2)  The Legislature has rejected her rejection of their rejection of Tim Grussendorf to take the place of Kim Elton.  Senate Pres. Gary Stevens (R-Kodiak) is supporting a lawsuit.

3)  Levi Johnston gave an interview to Tyra Banks, stating that he and Bristol “mostly” practiced safe sex, and that Sarah had to know they were having sex “Moms are pretty smart.”  There was some other dirty laundry as well, and Meg Stapleton is already out saying he was lying etc.

4)  She apparently missed another meeting with the Leg over the Stimulus package.  She stated in an interview with Anne Sutton of AP that the Leg. really controlled the pursestrings and that they wanted the money, the Leg. says her veto power is the final say.

5)  Though I don’t think it will really happen, there is actually growing noise about Ted Stevens running for Governor in 2010.  If he did, I don’t *think* Palin would have a chance in a primary.  How ironic would that be?

I wonder if the bloom is coming off the rose for anyone on the national scene.

There was a big crowd. The introductions were done by alternating Lt. Governors, Lehman, and Parnell. Lehman wore the Lincoln Hat and gave the “Gettysburg Address intro” of Gov. He shouldn’t give up his day job. Both Don Young’s and Lisa Murkowski’s speeches were pre recorded, I thought both were quite good, Rep. Young was especially sharp. The old guy ain’t dead yet. Ralph Seekins did the auction stuff. As I’m sure you know, it is what he was born to do.

The headlines are gone, and MSNBC no longer cares. But that’s all the more reason to take note of the strange and disturbing turn in the Ted Stevens legal saga.

Prosecutors claimed this senior Senatorial scalp last year, winning an ethics conviction a fortnight before the octogenarian Republican narrowly lost his bid for a seventh term from Alaska. Though media interest stopped there, the story has since become one of ambitious prosecutors who at the very least botched the job and may have miscarried justice.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123509358392428915.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

“Mr. Stevens will try to overturn the verdict and rebuild his reputation. He is unlikely to get his Senate seat back, even if he wins on appeal or at retrial. But the evidence of prosecutorial malpractice is serious enough to warrant an internal Justice probe, and perhaps judicial sanctions.”

To my mind, nationally, this is the untold story of the last Election.  Even moreso than the Franken-Coleman mess.   That, much like Bush/Gore 2000 was essentially a tie, this was a manipulation of a race that otherwise wouldn’t even have been close.