If Democrats attempt to ram through a reconciliation bill by simple majority vote in the Senate, then the GOP can offer an unlimited series of amendments. Federal law says so clearly and unambiguously: “a motion to strike a provision shall always be in order.” That’s from 2 USC 641(d)(2).
Democrats are now threatening to amend this clear provision of federal law by a simple majority vote, which would be as nuclear as anything the Senate has ever done. Ruth Marcus of the Washington Post explains:
If Democrats choose, as seems inevitable, to try to pass changes to the health-care plan under the rules of reconciliation, only a majority vote will be required. But that’s not the nuclear option, despite some Republican rhetoric to that effect. Under reconciliation procedures, Republicans could not filibuster the measure. But they could offer amendments. Unlimited amendments. Senate Democrats already have the historical records handy: 58 votes on the Contract With America cuts in 1995, and 44 votes on the Bush tax cuts.
Here is where the nuclear move comes in. If Republicans exercise their prerogative to propose amendments and show no signs of quitting, Democrats could use the nuclear option to make them stop. After some number of amendments, the majority leader or another Democrat could seek a ruling that the amendments had become dilatory and abusive. If the parliamentarian were to disagree, whoever is chairing the Senate at that time could overrule him. Republicans could appeal that ruling. Democrats could move to table the appeal, essentially upholding the decision that no additional amendments would be allowed. And — this is the important part — that would only require a majority vote.
If this happens, then basically the U.S. Senate will come to a grinding halt, and the federal government will be paralyzed indefinitely. All this, in the name of legislation that Americans overwhelmingly oppose, and that cannot garner a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate.
Daniel Horowitz
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
Steve Maley
thanks for walking us to the endgame
mikeleader (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:23PM EDT (link)so sad it’s come to this!
mikeleader
Interesting but I don't think it will go back to the Senate.
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:38PM EDT (link)The House will vote and it’s done.
If the House does vote yes
izoneguy (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:43PM EDT (link)then what’s left of the conservative movement must find a way to bring the socialist juggernaut to a grinding halt….
a conservative insurgency let’s say.
Throw wrenches into every gearbox you can find.
Those who had once simpered: “I don’t want to destroy the rich, I only want to seize a little of their surplus to help the poor, just a little, they’ll never miss it!” – then, later, had snapped: “The tycoons can stand being squeezed; they’ve amassed enough to last them for three generations” – then, later, had yelled: “Why should the people suffer while businessmen have reserves to last a year?” – now were screaming: “Why should we starve while some people have reserves to last a week?” – Atlas Shrugged
Maybe the House Will Vote and It's Done
AndrewHyman (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:48PM EDT (link)Which way will the House vote? House members would be kind of dumb to expect that Reid and Obama will order the nuclear option to ram through reconciliation in the Senate. Reid and Obama may do so, but it seems unlikely to me, and certainly not something that a member of the House should count on..
Here's my rationale Andrew...
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:59PM EDT (link)1. Democrats have a proven ability to enforce discipline on critical votes.
2. The President and Nancy will hold members children hostage for YES votes. They may also “promise” to send the bill back to Senate for a “fix”.
3. The current Senate bill will pass the House with no Republican votes.
4. The bill will not be sent back to the Senate for the reasons you note in the OP. Rex will then explain that the bill can’t be fixed because of intransigent Republicans. Sorry, but if you have a problem you should take it up with the Rs because we were willing to fix it.
I’d like to be wrong.
GOP Senators Ought to Write a Letter
AndrewHyman (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:08PM EDT (link)If GOP Senators would write a public letter right now, they could get on top of this situation. They could make it clear to wavering House members how unlikely it is that reconciliation will be allowed to pass in the Senate this year, much less other fixes like the kind that Congressman Stupak seeks. The key phrase is “this year.” The GOP could refuse to make fixes until after the November elections.
A letter by GOP Senators also could make clear a willingness to work in a bipartisan way if the present legislation is scrapped. If the GOP Senators do not unite on a statement like this, then the Democrats will probably get the upper hand.
Works for me.
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:25PM EDT (link)I would prefer no statement about a willingness to work in a bipartisan way, but it’s a small price to pay since it will inevitably push any action off until after the election. At which time, we can stop any “reform”.
GOP Senators need to write that letter...
rbdwiggins (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:46PM EDT (link)to all 50 State Legislatures and Governors, indicating their willingness to help facilitate healthcare reform at the state level.
One example: Pre-existing conditions are eventually going to end up being covered by Medicaid. Mandating the coverage of pre-existing conditions by private insurers will be found unconstitutional (So will the individual mandate). Ending the unfunded mandate on that portion of the partnership is a viable option.
The degree of arrogance displayed on Capitol Hill that insists the federal government is capable of reducing healthcare costs is incredulous.
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan
sorry but I *completely* disagree
bk (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:49PM EDT (link)1. The GOP – especially the Senate GOP – NEVER gets on top of any situations.
2. The wavering House members have to assume that worst case is fixes never come, so no reminders of that are needed.
3. The GOP can refuse to do anything, but they always end up caving.
4. The Democrats already have the upper hand in the Senate, and if they get away with this they’ll know they rules don’t matter and they can get away with anything for the rest of the year.
I concur...
rbdwiggins (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:18PM EDT (link)If the House approves the Senate bill, President Obama is going to sign it into law and claim victory.
There will be no “fix” in the 111th Congress, and all of the congressional Democrats who vote for passage of the Senate bill can take their place under the bus alongside the rest of President Obama’s useful idiots.
Guarantees for votes? I don’t believe 51 U.S. Senators will admit, in writing and for the record, that they are actively conspiring to subvert Senate Rules in order to advance a socialist political agenda that has been rejected by nearly two-thirds of the American electorate.
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan
Five Dem Senators Will Not Be Back: Expendable! And The Race Card
Ausonius (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:36PM EDT (link)Never underestimate ideologues and their willingness to die metaphorically for their cause.
Internet sources say 5 Dem Senators at this moment are retiring: one might assume there a few others. They are all expendable: they will vote for anything.
In general I see no courage in Dems to resist MAObama’s pressure. Last week I wrote that a white Dem majority will not let BIG BRObama fail, for he is the first Afro-American president and
CANNOT fail as far as they are concerned.
And that includes a pseudo-victory masking a defeat. I hope you are right, but I fear not.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
AND…Know Your Czars…Before They Hit BIG BRObama’s Unemployment Line in November: http://www.czarcards.us/
The Dems will have the votes in the Senate - that's a guarantee
bk (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:46PM EDT (link)Doesn’t matter who is retiring or who is not – Reid can let 8 Senators vote no (9 if he can count on Biden to break the tie in the proper direction), so all the so-called moderates can vote no and say how terrible it is while gleefully exchanging hugs with Reid off camera.
And if he needed all eight to vote YES they would. nt
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 9:06PM EDT (link)The U.S. Senate will come to a grinding halt, and The federal government will be paralyzed indefinitely
izoneguy (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 7:40PM EDT (link)This would be great!!!
How about just put a grinding halt to the socialist juggernaut?
If nothing gets done for 3 more Obama years – fine….
Those who had once simpered: “I don’t want to destroy the rich, I only want to seize a little of their surplus to help the poor, just a little, they’ll never miss it!” – then, later, had snapped: “The tycoons can stand being squeezed; they’ve amassed enough to last them for three generations” – then, later, had yelled: “Why should the people suffer while businessmen have reserves to last a year?” – now were screaming: “Why should we starve while some people have reserves to last a week?” – Atlas Shrugged
that assumes the GOP has nuts - which never seems to happen
bk (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:43PM EDT (link)You won’t find more than a handful of DeMint types who are willing to go to the mat for all-out war. McConnell won’t care – he’ll make some speeches about it and then cave like a scared dog.
You have that right. nt
Menlo (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:46PM EDT (link)“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter
How can you draw this conclusion?
bk (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 8:52PM EDT (link)“If this happens, then basically the U.S. Senate will come to a grinding halt, and the federal government will be paralyzed indefinitely.”
This only happens if the GOP does everything in its power to shut down the Senate, and we KNOW they will never do that for more than a couple of days if at all.
How Conclusion Was Drawn
AndrewHyman (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 9:47PM EDT (link)According to the CS Monitor:
I mean, if the Senate GOP is going to simply stand by while Vice President Biden unilaterally amends the U.S. Code, then I think the Senate GOP would have to be considered worthless. And I don’t think they would just stand by.
"And I don’t think they would just stand by."
bk (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 9:52PM EDT (link)I hope you’re right, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
My impression of McConnell is that he likes to preen in front of the cameras and say mostly the right words, then not do jack squat.
Note how much backing he gave Bunning last week – none.
It takes someone who is willing to engage in all-out war regardless of the press and regardless of the consequences. McConnell is not that type of guy from what I’ve seen. All he cares about is that he will get more power in November if you ask me.
Keywords: "Graham" "conceded"
Flagstaff (Diary) Sunday, March 7th at 11:28PM EDT (link)Not “affirmed.” Not “taunted.” Not “challenged.” Conceded.
It’s what weak Republicans do best.
These guys still haven’t realized that fighting for even a lost cause brings major benefits, if only because they learn how to fight.
What they really need to do now is to make sure the House Democrats know that there will be no Republican votes for reconciliation in the Senate–that means the Senate Dem’s can have only 8 NO votes among them. And that’s assuming a reconciliation bill ever comes to a vote, which is crazy talk in itself.
We cannot be seen as helping the Dem’s pass Health Care Demolition in any way.
Buffett Rule #1: “Tax rates don’t matter if you don’t pay your taxes”
– Unnamed tax adviser to Warren Buffett, Leavenworth, KS, 2011
Buffett Rule #2: “A parrot in every pot and two Volts in every garage”– Jimmy Buffett, at a seance in Margaritaville, 1977