What you were never intended to know in this election


A Hillary staffer comes clean

After a long and careful consideration of all the implications and possible consequences of my actions today, I have decided to go through with this in the hope that our country can indeed be guided into the right direction. First, a little personal background… I am a female grad student in my 20’s, and a registered Democrat. During the primaries, I was a campaign worker for the Clinton candidacy. I believed in her and still do, staying all the way to the bitter end. And believe me, it was bitter. The snippets you’ve heard from various media outlets only grazed the surface. There was no love between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, and these feelings extended all the way to the top. Hillary was no dope though, and knew that any endorsement of Obama must appear to be a full-fledged one. She did this out of political survival. As a part of his overall effort to extend an olive branch to the Clinton camp and her supporters, Obama took on a few Hillary staff members into his campaign. I was one such worker. Though I was still bitterly loyal to Hillary, I still held out hope that he would choose her as VP. In fact, there was a consensus among us transplants that in the end, he HAD to choose her. It was the only logical choice. I also was committed to the Democratic cause and without much of a second thought, transferred my allegiance to Senator Obama.

I’m going to let you in on a few secrets here, and this is not because I enjoy the gossip or the attention directed my way. I’m doing this because I doubt much of you know the true weaknesses of Obama. Another reason for my doing this is that I am lost faith in this campaign, and feel that this choice has been forced on many people in this country. Put simply, you are being manipulated. That was and is our job – to manipulate you (the electorate) and the media (we already had them months ago). Our goal is to create chaos with the other side, not hope. I’ve come to the realization (as the campaign already has) that if this comes to the issues, Barack Obama doesn’t have a chance. His only chance is to foster disorganization, chaos, despair, and a sense of inevitability among the Republicans. It has worked up until now. Joe the Plumber has put the focus on the issues again, and this scares us more than anything. Being in a position to know these things, I will rate what the Obama campaign already knows are their weak links from the most important on down.

1 – Hillary voters. Internal polling suggests that at best, we are taking 70-75% of these voters. Other estimates are as low as 60% in some areas – particularly Ohio and western PA. My biggest problem with this campaign’s strategy was the decision NOT to offer Hillary the VP slot. She was ready and able to take this on, and would have campaigned enthusiastically for it. This selection would have also brought virtually all of her supporters into the fold, and the Obama campaign knew it. Though I have no way of knowing this for certain, and I do admit that I am relying on internal gossip, Senator Obama actually went against the advice of his top advisors. They wanted him to choose her, but the only significant opposition to this within the campaign came from Barack and Michelle Obama. In short, he let personal feelings take precedence over what was the most logical thing to do. Biden, by the way, has been a disaster inside the campaign. Everyone cringes whenever he gives an interview, and he creates so many headaches as the campaign has to stay on their toes in order to disseminate information and spin whatever it was he was trying to say.

2 – Sarah Palin. Don’t believe what the media is telling you about how horrible a choice she was. Again, our internal polling suggest that though she has had a minimal impact on pulling disaffected Hillary Democrats to McCain, she has done wonders in mobilizing the base for McCain. Another thing – we were completely taken by surprise with her pick. In my capacity in the research department, I looked into the backgrounds of Leiberman, Romney, Pawlenty and Ridge, and prepared briefs. I don’t mind bragging that we had pretty good stuff on all of them. With Leiberman, the plan was to paint him as an erratic old-timer who didn’t have a clue as to what he was doing (pretty much a clone of McCain). In Romney, we had him pegged as an evil capitalist who cut jobs. Pawlenty was going to get the “Quayle treatment”, or more precisely: a pretty face, with no valid experience. Tom Ridge was going to be used to provide a direct link from McCain to Bush. As you can see, we were quite enamored of all of them. Then the unexpected happened – Sarah Palin. We had no clue as to how to handle her, and bungled it from the start. Though through our misinformation networks, we have successfully taken some of the shine off. But let there be no doubt. She remains a major obstacle. She has singlehanded solidified “soft” Republican support, mobilized the McCain ground game, and has even had some appeal to independents and Hillary voters. This is what our internal polling confirms.

3 – Obama’s radical connections. Standards operating procedure has been to cry “racism” whenever one of these has been brought up. We even have a detailed strategy ready to go should McCain ever bring Rev. Wright up. Though by themselves they are of minimal worth, taken together, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Pfelger, and now, Rashid Khalili, are exactly what the campaign does not need. The more focus on them, the more this election becomes a referendum on Obama. The campaign strategy from the very beginning was to make this election a referendum on Bush. Strategists have been banging their head on how successfully McCain has distanced himself from Bush. This has worked, and right now the tide is in his favor. People are taking a new look at Barack Obama, and our experience when this happens tells us this is not good news at all. When they take a look at him, one or more of these names are bound to be brought up. McCain has wisely not harped on this in recent weeks and let voters decide for themselves. This was a trap we set for him, and he never fully took the bait. Senator Obama openly dared him to bring up Ayers. This was not due to machismo on the part of Obama, but actually due to campaign strategy. Though McCain’s reference to Ayers fell flat in the last debate, people in the Obama campaign were actually disappointed that he didn’t follow through on it more and getting into it. Our focus groups found this out: When McCain brings these connections up, voters are turned off to him. They’d rather take this into consideration themselves, and when this happens, our numbers begin to tank.

4 – The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”. The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.

As part of my research duties, I scour right wing blogs and websites to get somewhat of a “feel” as to what is being talked about on the other side. Much of it is nonsense, but there are some exceptions which give the campaign jitters. A spirited campaign has been made to infiltrate many pro-Hillary sites and discredit them. A more disorganized, but genuine effort has also been made to sow doubts among the unapologetically right wing sites such as redstate.com. Don’t you guys get it? This has been the Obama campaign’s sole strategy from the very beginning! The only way he wins is over a dispirited, disorganized, and demobilized opposition. This is how it has been for all of his campaigns. What surprises me is that everyone has fallen for it. You may point to the polls as proof of the inevitability of all of this. If so, you have fallen for the oldest trick in the book. How did we skew these polls, you might ask? It all starts with the media “buzz” which has been generated over the campaign. Many stories are generated on the powerful Obama ground game, and how many new voters were registered. None of this happens by coincidence. It is all part of the poll-skewing process. This makes pollsters change their mixes to reflect these new voters and tilt the mix more towards Democratic voters. What is not mentioned or reported on is not the “under-reported cell phone users or young voters” we hear so much about. What is underreported is you.

I changed my somewhat positive opinion of this campaign during the unfair and sexist campaign against Sarah Palin. I will never agree with her on the issues and will probably never vote for her, but I am embarrassed of what has happened. I can’t ignore our own hand in all of this. What I do know is that I will not be voting for Obama this time around. Treat that as you will.

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33 Comments Leave a comment

Having read a very similar comment over at Hillbuzz.com

janis Thursday, October 30th at 5:12PM EDT (link)

this morning, I am wondering if you are the same person or if this is some other coordinated effort to effect something by the Obama campaign.

How are we to know when you have already demonstrated your capability in deceptive and dishonest behavior?

 

I don't know if you are for real....

izoneguy Thursday, October 30th at 5:20PM EDT (link)

But you said:

“His only chance is to foster disorganization, chaos, despair, and a sense of inevitability among the Republicans. It has worked up until now.”

I don’t think so. The only disorganization I see is in Obama himself. He says different things on different days. He fosters
despair in his own party with his own supporters. The right side is not fostered with a sense of inevitability. We know that socialism does not work as evidenced from failed regimes around the world. Obama cannot hold a candle to the leadership of John McCain. And if anyone votes for Obama based on the world situation today then they are blinded by the cult of personality.

“When the government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Thomas Jefferson

And here's the link to that other comment:

janis Thursday, October 30th at 5:23PM EDT (link)

Enh, I'm more inclined to take this at face value

Finrod Thursday, October 30th at 5:25PM EDT (link)

After all, anyone can have a Road to Damascus moment, and what she says seems to comport well with other rumors of internal campaign info.


Finrod’s First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.

Finrod, did you go over and read the other comment I linked to? n/t

janis Thursday, October 30th at 5:39PM EDT (link)
 
 
 

The Preciousssss is gone, Gollum! The Ring of Truth is misssssing!

CincoSolas_del_Bronx Thursday, October 30th at 5:55PM EDT (link)

So, a nameless “campaign worker for the Clinton candidacy” (and it’s a good thing you told us rubes that you’re a “registered Democrat” or we never would have puzzled that out) who “believed in her and still do[es], staying all the way to the bitter end”, but for logic’s sake “without much of a second thought, transferred my allegiance to Senator Obama”, had research duties which included “scouring right wing blogs and websites” to learn what any 4th-grader knows, and writing briefs based on her “capacity in the research department”(which she “do[es]n’t mind bragging that we had pretty good stuff on all” the potential VPs) which any 5th-grader could have written, and whose proficiency with spammar* is exemplary, now also has *UNLIMITED ACCESS TO ALL THE INTERNAL NUMBERS *of the Obama campaign!!!!

Oh, and she is very concerned, “because I doubt much [sic] of you know the true weaknesses of Obama”. Riiiiiiiight.

It turned out very well that Bilbo and Frodo both had pity on Gollum at the right moments, but Moe is no Baggins. Begone, Moby.

* spam-grammar

soli Deo gloria

 

I think the red-staters, for the most part

ILLINOIS_CONSERV Thursday, October 30th at 6:11PM EDT (link)

have not believed the Obama-hyped polls. I think the more outrageous the poll numbers were, the more committed we were to expose the polls as untrue. I have been emailing articles and linking columns to all my family and friends who start to lose faith. In the last few days I have seen them get re-energized as the momentum swings more and more to McCain. This election is too important to be discouraged by a few polls. I personally believe it will be close but McCain will win. Don’t give up the fight!

The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke

 

Look,

pwest Thursday, October 30th at 6:18PM EDT (link)

who cares. I’ve wondered if some of these groups were meant to suck us in and get us believing only rip our hearts out, but if they are so be it.

We can’t worry about motives with less than five days.

Ignore the polls, and go vote. Try and get as many as you can to the polls.

Tune out, tune out, tune out the polls, and Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote!

Pam

 

Right Pam!

ILLINOIS_CONSERV Thursday, October 30th at 6:58PM EDT (link)

People with character tand up and fight for what they believe in. And should he unthinkable happen next week, I will be able to look in the mirror and say that I did all I could do. And then start getting ready for the next election campaign for Congress. Illinois republicans need to regroup and get quualified candidates elected to Congress.

The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke

Agreed

Woodywoodchopper Thursday, October 30th at 7:01PM EDT (link)

If this person actually had access to internal campaign documents then the post would have told us something that we didn’t know already.

 
 

Skewed

Michael DeWeese Thursday, October 30th at 7:13PM EDT (link)

It is all part of the poll-skewing process. This makes pollsters change their mixes to reflect these new voters and tilt the mix more towards Democratic voters. What is not mentioned or reported on is not the “under-reported cell phone users or young voters” we hear so much about. What is underreported is you.
This skewing is helped by the ACORN get out the vote Obama paid $800,000 for. The extra democrats registered, even if Mickey Mouse is among them, make democrat poll numbers increase in weighting, and under reports republicans. This is all an attempt to manipulate the populace with a ‘Obama can’t loose” meme.

I had read it before this was even posted. (n/t)

Finrod Thursday, October 30th at 7:42PM EDT (link)


Finrod’s First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.

 
 

Without Sarah, McCain was Done in April

democratsarefascists Friday, October 31st at 12:23AM EDT (link)

Nice try, but McCain was the bad choice. His blundering liberalism and desperate need to be liked by Obama’s and his fellow communist legislators has put us here.

The Democrats were wrong about the economy.
The Democrats were wrong about the surge.
The Democrats were wrong about tax cuts.

Yet here we are having to fight for every vote from a populace that’s still ignorant of Obama’s evil intentions, all because old man McCain had to play nice. He wouldn’t speak the truth about the new Hitler until it was far too late.

You’d think World War II would’ve taught us that you don’t play nice with fascists. If they live, they will kill you or they’ll conquer you and then kill you.

 

We're reviewing this one, *but*: aid the campaigns.

Moe Lane Friday, October 31st at 12:39AM EDT (link)

Whether you believe this or not, the only proper response is to go out there and do what you can for the Presidential, Federal, State and local races.

 

I want to believe

someone Friday, October 31st at 12:52AM EDT (link)

Do you, the author, also wish to claim the famous comment at HillBuzz?

This was funny though:

With Leiberman, the plan was to paint him as an erratic old-timer who didn’t have a clue as to what he was doing (pretty much a clone of McCain)

Surely you mean of Biden…

 

14-so you thought

Echohawk Friday, October 31st at 6:26AM EDT (link)

Republicans would be discouraged by the MSM’s support for Obama? You’re very young, honey, but that’s okay. Live and learn.
Republicans broke faith with the MSM decades ago, when they wouldn’t give President Reagan a fair shake, or President Nixon.
Sen. McCain chose Gov. Palin to energize the base, and to tempt all those Reagan Democrats in PA, OH, IN, WV, and KY, who voted for Hillary in the primaries when she didn’t have a chance to win the nomination.
McCain will win all those states.
Sen. Obama has never been able to close the deal–McCain will win on Tuesday.

 

Occam's razor

TPAZ Friday, October 31st at 6:35AM EDT (link)

“All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.”
Occam’s razor

The real reason Obama is worried about Tuesday is that in the 37 state Democratic Party Primary contests, he won 18 of 37 elections. He also won 13 of 14 caucuses. His losses included Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio; all battleground states. He has the MSM convincing voters that he can win a national 50 state election when he failed in doing so within his own party’s 37 multi-state contests.

McCain, on the other hand, won Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio, during the Republican Primary season. And, the one caucus contest Obama lost; it was Nevada - another battleground state.

Question: What if the NFL’s NFC or AFC sent to the Superbowl a team that went 4-0 pre-season but played 1 under .500 in the regular season? The bookmakers in Vegas would offer laughable odds and the television network carrying the broadcast could not sell a dime’s worth of ad time at real Superbowl rates. Fans would boycott the game and sportswriters would mock the event.

Only the American voter will suspend disbelief and conclude a primary contest equals in value to a caucus contest. No, my friend, a caucus is a caucus and a primary is a primary. Obama is in a 50 state general election and he does poorly in those races. That’s why the campaign is worried and that’s why Obama will lose.

 

I already knew

clove Friday, October 31st at 6:35AM EDT (link)

Obama feels more than he thinks.

 

Probably attempt to make Republicans feel comfortable in not....

JadedByPolitics Friday, October 31st at 7:33AM EDT (link)

going to the polls in the states mentioned as NOT going Obama….though I have to say THEY are NOT going Obama!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

So True

JimS Friday, October 31st at 8:57AM EDT (link)

Skewed polls equal voter resolve.

So True

JimS Friday, October 31st at 8:58AM EDT (link)

Skewed polls equal voter resolve.

So True

JimS Friday, October 31st at 8:58AM EDT (link)

Skewed polls equal voter resolve.

 
 
 
 

A reason to believe this diary

Dave_in_Fla Friday, October 31st at 9:42AM EDT (link)

Yes, skepticism is healthy at this point. But the points made here match quite well with the facts on the ground. The only objective evidence pointing to an Obama victory is the overload of polls, and the relentless MSM reporting of them. Every time there is a good news item for McCain, the MSM has to qualify with “but XXX poll shows that he is trailing here by 3%”.

Since 1984 I’ve been VERY wary of “the only poll that matters is on election day”, but I am starting to wonder to what degree poll results could be manipulated. And a campaign that is willing to turn off credit card checks to allow fraudulent donations? Would they really balk at direct bribery of polling firms?

I’m starting to sound like a truther, sheesh.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” - Joe McCarthy

 

Hi Sweetie

JimS Friday, October 31st at 10:23AM EDT (link)

At 50+ years, I pray that my daughter is taught better throughout her life so that when she calls herself a “female grad,” she won’t have to write anything like you did today, (for which I’m proud of you for doing so).

I hate the terms, “dirty politics as usual,” and “poll skewing.” It’s sad that we have come to this, in this country. Luckily we, as a nation, are much smarter than we are given credit for, and Tuesday will show this. However, it is unfortunate that we are also fighting an economy for which the current administration is taking the brunt of the blame. Maybe we should start a new phrase … “Asleep at the wheel politics.” Anyway, if Obama is allowing these kinds politics and McCain is not, the choice is simpler for you isn’t it?

We’re going to have to unify ourselves as a nation and fix this problem together. Then we can hold individuals responsible and accountable for the mess.

 

Hi Sweetie

JimS Friday, October 31st at 10:23AM EDT (link)

At 50+ years, I pray that my daughter is taught better throughout her life so that when she calls herself a “female grad,” she won’t have to write anything like you did today, (for which I’m proud of you for doing so).

I hate the terms, “dirty politics as usual,” and “poll skewing.” It’s sad that we have come to this, in this country. Luckily we, as a nation, are much smarter than we are given credit for, and Tuesday will show this. However, it is unfortunate that we are also fighting an economy for which the current administration is taking the brunt of the blame. Maybe we should start a new phrase … “Asleep at the wheel politics.” Anyway, if Obama is allowing these kinds politics and McCain is not, the choice is simpler for you isn’t it?

We’re going to have to unify ourselves as a nation and fix this problem together. Then we can hold individuals responsible and accountable for the mess.

 

I doubt it

Woodywoodchopper Saturday, November 1st at 6:39AM EDT (link)

Would they really balk at direct bribery of polling firms?

Would is very different from could.

I doubt very much that it would be possible to bribe that many people without someone spilling the beans - and by that I mean a credible witness with specific information.

That kind of campaign would need to involve all the firms, including those that also work for the Republicans. I don’t think it would be possible.

In addition, in the big swing states that really matter - Florida, Ohio etc - the polls show that its very close. If there was some bribery going on then surely these would be the first to show an overwhelming Obama lead.

Typically, I agree with you.

Steph C Saturday, November 1st at 7:23AM EDT (link)

This time, it’s better to give the benefit of the doubt. For the most part the poster hasn’t said anything we didn’t already know or suspect. However, there are readers here who never comment and some of us have been quite demoralized by the media assault on our gut feelings. I believe this post will have an energizing effect that all is not lost if we make the effort; that we might pull out of this stronger and better off than before. It’s when the smell of defeat is stronger than hope that people stop trying.

I would call this a reenergizing post rather than an attempt to lull us into complacency.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

 
 

No credibility

Juan Saturday, November 1st at 2:59PM EDT (link)

Do you really think a comment from someone so blatantly chasing after a political income has any credibility at all?

Suddenly your ideals caught up to you?

It is difficult to not be upset at this shameless flip-flopping after being entrusted to participate in a campaign that a carpet-bagging Clinton fanatic could never match.

If only there were a way to vet characters who mar the political process this way…

I would think...

swami7774 Saturday, November 1st at 3:49PM EDT (link)

…this info, if legit, would have the opposite effect and would actually energize the GOP base to get out there.

 
 

If authentic this person will be found out

oracle2world Saturday, November 1st at 9:56PM EDT (link)

A check with Word shows only two misspellings (Joe Lieberman, two times, i and e swapped), and a readability index at the 8th grade. The first sentence is very complex and has no errors. The phrase “… still bitterly loyal” (to Hillary) is an extremely unusual phrase, rarely used anywhere. Later on a grammar error “I doubt much of you know …”.

Someone put a lot of work into this and would have to know they would be found out if true. A “… female grad student in my 20’s … Obama took on a few Hillary staff members into his campaign.” does not leave a lot of possibilities. So if authentic my guess would be a single white woman in a Ph.D English Lit program in New York City or Boston, taking a LONG break from studies (her thesis), with time on her hands since she is not in a battleground state. But I wouldn’t lay money on this either way.

My gut feel is that there are no undecided voters left. Just folks scared of Obama who hang up or say undecided. Obama supporters don’t seem shy about announcing their choice. If you are a Democrat and anti-Obama (not pro-McCain, just anti-Obama), you are not going to tell a soul about this. You don’t know who is on the other end of the phone, and your family may be listening in on your side.

If the undecideds mostly break for McCain, Obama can lose. Which would explain his campaign in the last days, that doesn’t look like he believes in the blow-out polls predict.

And disgruntled Hillary supporters are very capable of tanking so Obama loses. Check out divorce court if you think this to be implausible.

The laws of probability and statistics are the same for all pollsters, and they are predicting the same event. The huge variances and swings seen in different polls ought to suggest to folks that something very odd is happening this election. I don’t know how pollsters are going to CYA on this one. Right now their possible margin of error seems larger than the spread.

Exactly

wennejunk Monday, November 3rd at 7:06AM EST (link)

The huge variances and swings seen in different polls ought to suggest to folks that something very odd is happening this election.

Indeed. In a recent note to my family, I said something similar:

Should he (”The One”, that is) lose, then this election will result in a lot of questions along the lines of “How could the polls be so wrong”.

There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, ‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’ -C. S. Lewis

 
 

I cannot recommend

wennejunk Monday, November 3rd at 7:20AM EST (link)

I like the diary, I tend to believe the claims are probably accurate as to actions, internals and concerns.

However, I have a hard time believing the author is who she says she is (or if she’s actually a she).

This sounds like it is written by one of our own right-siders to create a stir, buzz and hope and to perhaps create an internal witch hunt in the Obama Campaign.

I have no doubt there are workers on Obama’s team who feel this way. However, I find it hard to beleive they would write such an article in this way at this time where it would be so easy to figure out who they were.

If this supposed campaign worker were really having such a need to reveal, such a crisis of confidence, the correct thing to do would be to drop from the campaign and go public in a different way where their credibility would buoy their message and help create the effect they are seeking.

I think the author probably knows someone well enough in the campaign to get insider info and is ghost writing that person’s remarks, whether authorized or not.

Such a writer would have greater traction by simply saying so: “I have a friend somewhere deep in the Obama organization who says…”

There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, ‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’ -C. S. Lewis

 

Who knows?

TBird Monday, November 3rd at 10:54AM EST (link)

Maybe legit; maybe not. Fun reading nevertheless.

 

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