[Cross-posted at my blog, Athens Runaway]

Much ado was made today about a poll done by Rasmussen Reports in which pollsters asked 1,000 “likely voters—among other things—to assume that the “Tea Party” movement formed itself into a coherent, top-down political party.

They then asked the “likely voters” whether they would vote for the Republican candidate from their Congressional district, the Democratic candidate, or the hypothetical “Tea Party” candidate.”

The “conventional wisdom” is that this is a sign that the Republican Party is in trouble, or that the Tea Party movement is overtaking the Republican Party, or whatever.  I strongly disagree with this analysis.  Here’s why.

In Rasmussen’s December 1 poll, they state that “Since late June, support for Republican candidates on the Generic Ballot has ranged from 41% to 44%, while support for Democrats has run from 36% to 40%.”  So Republicans have been in the low 40-percent range, while Democrats have been in the high 30-percent range.

Here’s the catch, and why I have a problem with this poll: the two polls tell us nothing that we don’t already know, and is an exercise in mental masturbation.

There is no conservative third-party, and conservatives have the option of voting for the Republican and applying influence once the Republican is in office, or they have the option of choosing to stay home.  You may say that it’s not much of an option, but do you think that a Democrat Congressman is more likely to listen to a conservative constituent’s point of view than a Republican Congressman is?  No.

The December 1 poll and the December 4 poll are essentially the same.  In October, Rasmussen did a poll that found that 73% of Republicans feel that the national party is out of touch with them.  The polling agency also found that these numbers have remained “basically unchanged” for months.

Let’s assume that this trend has continued, and that 73% (or thereabouts) of Republicans feel that the GOP isn’t listening to them.  That leads us to believe that this is the case:

As you can see, the “Tea Party” is not taking over the Republican Party, as some Democrats smirkingly suggest.

The Rasmussen Report, and the people using it as a cudgel against the Republican Party, is shocked to find that small-government, common-sense-value people (AKA “Tea Partiers”) are a subset of the Republicans.  This isn’t news, and everyone who’s intellectually honest about it knows it, too.

The reason that it tells us nothing is because it assumes that the Democratic Party does not similarly fracture, and remains monolithic.

Let’s assume that both the Democrats and Republicans fracture along ideological lines on the issue of health care “reform.”  As the health care debate touches many other issues such as the Constitution, government size and power, spending, and so no, I think this is a fair assumption.

Today, blogger Nate Silver did an analysis of the health care debate that was highly illuminating.  His findings suggest that there is a sizable portion of the Left that was to the left of the Democratic Party, as inferred by surveyed liberals’ significant opposition to Obamacare on the grounds that it didn’t go far enough.

Assuming that the hypothetical split will occur on the issue of Obamacare, we can get an idea of what would happen if a poll was done giving hardcore liberal Democrats the same option to make their own party, just as the hardcore conservatives were given in the Rasmussen Reports poll.

This hypothetical Liberal Party, according to Silver’s numbers and Rasmussen’s September 2 poll, can safely be assumed to pull in from 15%-27%, coming from people who would otherwise vote Democratic.  Being pessimistic, that produces this scenario:

As you can see, an intellectually honest polling situation such as the hypothetical poll at left reveals that both parties have coalitions, and both parties would necessarily shrink as third parties are created.

This shouldn’t be a shocker.  Major parties are made up of coalitions.  Duh.

However, this report isn’t worthless.  It should serve as a warning to the Republican establishment (and you guys know who you are) that The Base is restless, and that if The Base were to strike out for its own, the Democrats—and by extension, liberalism—will win.

The Republican Party must return to its conservative roots, or it will risk a fracture that weakens everyone and screws us all over.

However, this also should serve as warning to the people rabble-rousing for “the base” to strike off and form a right-wing third party.  Conservatives have more influence over leaders in Congress when they’re part of the coalition-based major party.  Puttering around in Third Party Land is a quick way to help ensure liberal victories and a near-permanent liberal majority in the nation.