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2012 GOP Presidential Power Rankings, FoxSports-style

(I tried this before the primaries with no success. So now that the 2010 election is over, let’s try an updated version!)

Any of you sports fans have certainly seen the Power Rankings for MLB, NCAA football, and other sports at the FoxSports site (among others). The NBA even has their own. So I thought it might be fun to start posting a 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination Power Rankings.

The purposes of these Power Rankings are simple:

  • Have fun!
  • Spark discussion
  • Track ups and downs of the 2012 GOP race

The sports power rankings are basically one man (or woman)’s opinion and are completely meaningless. Just like these rankings! These are not meant to be predictive. They are just meant to be a snapshot of current sentiments. Candidates who are ranked highly now may not run, or they may fade. New candidates will show up. My plan (assuming anybody cares enough to read and/or comment on these!) is to update them roughly monthly until the 2012 campaign starts to heat up. Then maybe bi-weekly or even weekly.

I should also point out that these rankings are strictly my impressions of who is in the best position vis-a-vis the GOP nomination race. I make no statement about who should get the nomination or who would have the best chance to beat Obama.

Finally, please take these as they are intended, just to have a little fun. If you think I’m wrong or nuts, please (respectfully) comment as such. If I’m leaving out your favorite potential candidate, add a comment to that effect.

Maybe I’ll even add some odds once we get closer! (No wagering, please.)

azaeroprof’s 2012 GOP Presidential Power Rankings

Rank Candidate Prev Rank Comment
1

Mitt Romney
1 Still most organized and well-funded. 2008 experience. Runs a slight Number 1 in most of the early polls. Still has that RomneyCare albatross around his neck. Closest to a concensus front-runner at this point, which probably works against him.
2

Sarah Palin
2 Clearly has the most devoted and largest following of any potential candidates. Conservative rock star. Still has work to do to appeal to moderates and beef up her policy resume. Has done nothing but raise her stock during the 2010 midterms. Book coming out next week will get her more attention. Even Joe Biden cautions against underestimating her. Well, on second thought,…
3

Rick Perry
3 Solid re-election, the strength of the Texas economy and Perry’s ability to remain a popular governor through two full terms work to his favor. Despite his protestations to the contrary, his recent public statements indicate he is definitely thinking national politics.
4

Mitch Daniels
4 May be the nation’s most successful and competent governor. Turned Indiana’s fiscal ship around during a horrible recession. Not the most charismatic guy, but America may well be ready for boring after 4 years of Obama’s left-wing drama queen act. Criticisms of social conservatives may make it tougher for him to come out of GOP nomination fight.
5

Chris Christie
15 Not exactly Mr. Attractive TV candidate, but you sure cannot discount his ability to get elected in a tough environment for Republicans. And then to turn around and govern like a Conservative! His early success in New Jersey has made him a darling among many in the GOP already.
6

Haley Barbour
7 Anyone else like Barbour could be discounted as too good-ole Southern boy. But Barbour cannot be ignored based on his success as Mississippi governor, especially in the face of natural disasters, and his longstanding party leadership. He probably has more chits and favors owed to him than any other potential candidate, and his leadership of the RGA showed he has no interest in resting on his laurels.
7

Newt Gingrich
6 Despite his baggage and bizarre tendency to stray off the Conservative reservation from time to time, Newt remains a powerful force and eloquent spokesman for the movement. As he has grayed, he has mellowed and made his personality a little more sugar and less vinegar to the center and left voters. Still an idea machine and someone to watch for a veep nod if he doesn’t secure the nomination.
8

Jon Hunstman, Jr.
5 Popular former governor of Utah. Thought by many to have quelled presidential aspirations when he accepted Obama’s appointment as U.S. Ambassador to China. I don’t think so. This may actually position him well to be seen as bipartisan. Being from Utah may make him a little more palatable to conservatives as well. Someone to watch.
9

Mike Huckabee
8 One of the big 3 in early polls, but I don’t see him as a serious contender. His best bet was against McCain in ’08, but he “didn’t wear well in the wash.” Definitely appeals to SoCons, but his fiscal conservative bonafides are questionable.
10

Tim Pawlenty
9 Yes, he has been an effective governor elected twice in one of the most Democratic states (from a POTUS perspective anyway). But he just doesn’t generate the kind of excitement and buzz among grassroots Repubs and Conservatives (though this does seem to be increasing), and this is a requirement to get the kind of support required. Would likely rank higher on a list of Who would do well in a general election? ranking, but this is not the purpose here.
11

Mike Pence
11 Well-liked by the conservative movement types, but still very unknown outside of Indiana. Jumping from the House of Representatives to President is a huge jump, so he is not likely a threat to win. But if he resonates with the national voters and makes a splash, he could be a contender for the #2 spot.
12

Bobby Jindal
14 Is starting to show signs that he may run. Tanked in his big-time premier. But his record and fairly high national name recognition may give him a mulligan. If he can shore up his rhetoric and display more of a fire in his belly, he could be a player (if he chooses).
13

John Thune
10 Attractive, though largely unknown, candidate. Giant-killer from knocking off Tom Daschle, Thune has built up support within the GOP. As Romney, Palin and some others flirt with overexposure, Thune may be a refreshing new face for the public to get to know. What we don’t know at this point is whether the voters outside of South Dakota will love him or be indifferent to him.
14

Scott Brown
13 Still new, too liberal, and unknown interest. But he’s as close as we have to being a #2 rock star after Sarah Palin. If he could endear himself to Conservatives enough to be in contention for the nomination, he could be a heavyweight in the general. But Conservatives will likely rule the nomination process, which doesn’t bode well for his chances. VP maybe?
15

Liz Cheney
12 OK, I know many of you here at RedState would like to see her rated more highly. And she is one of our most effective critics of the Obama admin. Still, her last name is Cheney and that will continue to be a net minus among the larger population of voters. And like many of the folks on this list, we don’t even know if she is interested in running. Hasn’t shown any particular interest in running.
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COMMENTS

  • Scope

    and as you say, unscientific, but, I’m sure the effort will be as good as anyone else’s analysis, including the pollsters.

    Man I hope the rankings change drastically.

    • azaeroprof

      Early polls and rankings in sports are usually driven by name recognition and past accomplishment. I imagine things will change dramatically as events start to happen.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    #1 Mitch Daniels: In the wake of 2008, it seemed as if we needed someone magically charasmatic to go up against the young Mike Tyson-Barack Obama. In late 2010, we see we are facing the exposed, old tomato can Mike Tyson-Barack Obama. We don’t need to run the flea-flicker to beat him. Put someone up who has a track record of making the easy to say, hard politically to do tough decisions.

    #2 Bobby Jindal: Remember, the 1988 Democratic Convention cheered wildly for Bill. When he said, finally, “In conclusion”. Very strong track record. See my comments above.

    #3 Newt Gingrich: Yes he has his flaws. Will the Good Newt or the Bad Newt show up today? But he was very effective with the Contract with America in the 90s. Those days don’t seem so bad, do they? (Yes, a Democrat as President, but one that was cornered into adopting many Conservative fiscal ideas. Ending welfare, NAFTA. Dropping the woefully unpopular Health Care takeover).

    #4 Chris Cristie: Young, but with obvious skills in taking on the opposition to get simple but politically tough ideas passed. I’m a little conserved about his overall conservatism. But he has excelled in taking on the unions. And it is possible that he has been selective in his agenda (e.g. not joining other states suing the Federal Govt over healthcare) because he’s simply husbanding his political capital on issues in the deep blue NJ for issues he can make an impact. That’s an unknown, and I’d tend to want to keep him doing his excellent job in NJ.

    #5: The field. Where/who was Mark Rubio two years before this November?

    Write-ins:
    Jim DeMint, Paul Ryan

    Honorable Mention: Rick Perry, Haley Barbour

    Dark Horse: Michelle Bachmann

    • Goldwater_Conservative

      I know that he is still young and unknown but his deep knowledge of the budget and his ablity to convey the consevative position in a way that everyone can get on board I think can eventually make up for his youth. I think he would be the best possible VP guy at this point. Can you imagine what a Daniels/Ryan or Pence/Ryan ticket would do to Obama/Biden?

      • graciegirl
        • Scope

          I like Barbour and I like Jindal, but, I don’t know if a total southern conservative ticket would fly. I’d be very excited to pull the lever for Pence/Jindal, no nose plugs necessary, so far. I say so far because I don’t know if they have any skeletons in their closets. Real skeletons though, not the ones that the Liberals will manufacture.

          I forgot about Jim DeMint. That’s an Ace for me if he decided to run. I’d love DeMint/Pence, and when DeMint’s 8 years are up, then we can have Pence/? for another 8. How’s that for optimistic?

          • azaeroprof

            but at least it’s a pleasant dream!

          • graciegirl

            He is the most trustworthy man in the US Senate, IMO. But I am just not seeing any indication that he is interested.

            I saw that interview with Jindal re: the hurricane. He had a contingency plan for every degree that storm could turn. It was astounding; he WAS going to protect his people! Have you seen him lately on the book tour? He has been listening to his press. He was like a different person, confident sure of himself. If communication skills are his main drawback he’s attacking them.

            Lacking DeMint I like Pence/Jindal. Pencel is the NO! guy in the House like DeMint is in the Senate, If Jindal could go with him the American ppl could get to know him too. Those two back to back could fix this country!

          • graciegirl

            Isn’t that when you add or correct yourself? lol at myself.
            Don’t make fun of me but you all do yourself a favor and read Wiki on Jindal. I’s a learning experience!

            No wonder he is ahead of himself. He grad from Brown with double honors majors at Tweny years old! Was accepted into Harvard Med and Yale Law but went abroad instead. His experience is phenomenal both public and private. His wife is no slouch either. She has almost finished her PHD while raising three children.
            Geesh! I love to sick him on the fiscal problems and cleaning up gov waste.

            Not to mention it would be so FUN to see somebody actually working in the White House.

        • 6eorge Jetson

          I would love for my omission of him on my list to be proven wrong. I left him off only because of the jump from Representative to Contending Presidential Candidate. The two Representatives I did list, Ryan and Bachmann, I think have something to make themselves stand out which could be a sufficient springboard.

      • Scope

        a Pence/Ryan ticket.

        • acat
    • azaeroprof

      Especially your write-ins and dark horse! I have a hard time seeing anyone from “the field” getting the name recognition and money to get enough traction in 2011. The battle between the new House and Obama will suck up most of the new coverage in ’11, making it hard for an unknown to get known, at least at the presidential level.

      BTW, I heard Bill O’Reilly the other night “guarantee” that Marco Rubio would be the 2012 GOP VP nominee regardless of who is at the top of the ticket. I tend to agree with him.

  • lawhite

    How about Palin/Rubio as a dynamic young team? Or talk about a hurricane ripping through DC…Christie/Palin!

    I do want to watch Rubio to see how he will be voting the next two years, though. And Palin may not be able to overcome her negative rating among independents by 2012, but I think she’d sure have the guts to do what needed to be done if she could get elected!

    I love DeMint and wouldn’t mind a DeMint/Palin team.

    I don’t think Palin would mind being second on a ticket if her running partner were compatible with her values. She wouldn’t consider another run with someone like McCain. She would have to run with someone who considered her an important part of the team, which DeMint would do. No one will ever keep her quiet again!

  • Finrod

    Romney has the establishment GOP, Palin is the Tea Party favorite, Perry has being the Governor of the largest red state. After that, well, it’s hard to distinguish one from another, except that Christie isn’t running and Jindal probably isn’t running and Scott Brown very likely isn’t running for anything but the Senate again.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    with his vote in favor of Big Government in the form of Senate Bill S 510 Food Safety Modernization Act

    • acat

      And not just with this vote…. his support for earmarks has been a bit too consistent for this cat’s taste.

      Mew

  • GOPUGA

    warming to Pawlenty. I think he is a good conservative and would be a good general election candidate

  • reddog53

    I disagree with many of your picks, but that’s the whole point.

    I really think that 2012 is going to build on the ‘anti establishment’ mood, which to me leaves Romney in the middle of the pack, not the front. The GOP establishment might like him, but he hardly projects the ‘limited government’ image that seems to be at the front, and his serious lack of foreign policy will be a weakness after the current administration’s series of foreign policy trainwrecks.

    Executive competence, common sense and national exposure are all key.

  • azaeroprof

    I think Romney will fade fast. But right at the moment, his money, organization, and name rec have to have him near the top. I think there is a decent chance (maybe 25-50%?) that the ultimate nominee is not even on my list.

    And I welcome and enjoy disagreement! :)

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    I like Romney, but if he coulndt beat out that lackluster field he had last time he sure wont have much of a shot this time.

    Sarah “flippin” Palin, huh nuf said. She will get the libertarian and some soccer mom votes but this is still the party of white males age 35-55 and they will vote with their heads, not their hearts.

    Perry is not popular in Texas, he just hasnt had a real candidate come after him in a long time. He likes to talk a big game, espcially right now with talk about the army on the boarder and such, but he has not been a good leader on any of the main policy issues that have come up during his term. In fact, he tends to do the Obama thing of ole lets let the house come up with a proposal and then we will go from there.

    I would move Thune and Jindal way up on that list.

  • azaeroprof

    these are one man’s opinions and worth no more than that. Just wanted to get some discussion going, so thanks for participating!

    I agree on Romney, but I do think Palin will be a major player if she runs. Not saying she’ll win, but at this point in time, she has to be seen as near the top of the field.

    I like Jindal, but Thune seems to me to be a bit of an empty suit.

    One point, though. Looking at the governors who have run in my lifetime (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, etc.), I can’t point to any meaningful public discourse over the details of their actual accomplishments as governor. The national voters seem to care about no more than the person didn’t run the state into the ground. On that vein, I think Perry could have strong national appeal. Being charismatic and a good talker seem to be the strongest traits for at least winning the White House.

  • 6eorge Jetson

    seem to be the strongest traits for at least winning the White House.”

    See the tomato can, old Mike Tyson Barack Obama. The voters have seen what falling for that gets them. I think the voting public will be more informed in 2012 than at any other point in my lifetime.

  • Scope

    Thune doesn’t seem to be serious about running, or at least some recent positions of his would indicate that he is not gearing up for a serious challenge.

    Romney hasn’t quit campaigning since 2008, and, he seems to be the only one who has made it clear that he will run again, and that would automatically put him at the top of the list in many polls. I don’t believe he can survive Rpmneycare, especially with Ocare being so unpopular, and the language being repeal, repeal, repeal. If I am not mistaken, his wife cut up the credit card last time. She would do well to not give him a new one.

    I think Jindal is literally brilliant. When I heard his reporting on another possible Katrina in his state, he had control of every tiny little fact, and he shared it with the public. I have admired his handling of the BP oil spill, and his willingness to share the mistakes of O and his admin during the disaster. As to his delivery of information, uhh not so much. His response to the O’s first SOTU address, what he had to say, was lost in the boring manner in how he delivered those words. I agree with you, charisma and the ability to inspire with your speeches, does seem to be a requirement. Bush, in the 8 years of his presidency, was never able to acquire that skill, and, he still has not acquired it. Same goes for Carter’s sweater wearing, fireside chats that only brought more misery and malaise to the masses.

    Weather Palin is liked or not by some here, and on many other sites, does not erase the fact that she manages to retain the ability to draw huge crowds. She seems also to have terrific fundraising abilities. I would think after this past election, she is holding many chits that she can call in if necessary. I would bet she has as much, if not more of a following of supporters than Ron Paul. I can’t see her appealing to Libertarians as she is as pro-life, and God fearing as it gets. She is also a big time military supporter. I don’t know if she should or would run, but, I’d say it’s 50/50 at this point.

    I recently read that Pawlenty and Daniels will likely not make any decisions on running until sometime in the spring. I would guess that they would decide based on what kind of fundraising they are able to accomplish between now and then. Didn’t Pawlenty’s big announcement day, that he was forming a PAC, go mostly unnoticed? Of course Huckabee started out on a Holiday Inn Express budget, got a bump after winning the first primary in 08, and then the well seemed to run dry again. The old Huckster still carried on the fight until the end, even though he was broke and busted. I don’t think he is doing any better this time.

    I really do believe that Christie was serious when he asked “What do I have to do to convince you people that I am not running for the Presidency in 2012, commit suicide.” He has been great on the NJ Unions, and many more governors should take lessons on that issue. I could not support him because of his friendly environmental and green positions. He seems weak on immigration. He endorsed Castle, and, I think he came out in support of the GZM.

    I view Scott Brown as a one time wonder. I think he won Ted Kennedy’s seat because he was seen as the one vote that could stop Ocare. He had the only race going on at the time, it was a special election. It afforded him national support. He has direly dissapointed me with his votes for the Liberals justices, and, mainly, his vote for Financial Reform. The Democrats will not make the mistake again in 2012 to run anyone as bad as Coakley. I suspect the seat goes back to the Dems. in 2012. Heck, we couldn’t even get rid of Bawney Fwank or Ed Markey this November.

    Newt sat on the couch with San Fran Nan once, which was one time to many. The NY 23rd Scozzi event was monumentously bad. Also, talk about retreads, he belongs in a museum. No dice.

    I like Haley Barbour. Would he be seen as too much of an insider this time to the rodeo? I don’t know.

    I saved my favorite, so far, for last. I really like Mike Pence. He is strong on all of the Reagan positions, national security, fiscal and social. He doesn’t seem to be irrational or out of step with any of those three principles, and that has a wide appeal to many. He doesn’t have good name recognition. It would be difficult to go from the House to the Presidency, but, if the O can go from being a Senator less than 2 years to the Presidency, it may be possible. I am not sure that he won’t run for Gov first, and possibly look at a Presidential race down the road. But, I really like the whole of him. Read this speech he delivered to Hillsdale College-

    http://spectator.org/archives/2010/09/20/hillsdale-speech-on-the-presid

    That speech was worldclass in my opinion. Imagine him delivering a speech like that in foreign countries, compared to the speeches that the O has given. I don’t see Pence with opening his mouth to exchange feet. He would honor, and praise and promote the American people throughout the world, as to how exceptional we really are.

    They are my thoughts, for what it is worth.

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    in fact I have been voting for him down here for a decade, but he has just always struck me as underwhelming. In fact, I remember when he came in as Lt. Govenor when Bush first won, he barely won that race while Bush was in the mid 60′s. His “big” issues down here, he tried gambling and the trans texas corridor, both failed becase he was completly incapable of selling his message to the people. And I’m not arguing whether you like the ideas or not, I’m only pointing out that when he decided to throw his political capital behind something he was unable to lead it through to fruition, and thats a very big red flag to me.

  • Scope

    was a blessing to the nation. IMHO, if he decided to run, that would come back to bite him in the butt as a big negative. It was very unpopular with a majority in the country. I remember it well. Other than that, I don’t know much else about him. He is the new RGA leader, and I would think that would mean something positive.

  • azaeroprof

    that the voters will be more informed than in recent history. But I think that will only be true for a small subset of voters. I saw a poll this week that less than half of Americans even know that the GOP just won control of the House. That reminded me of how little a huge number of Americans even care.

    I’m not saying I like it, but in the TV age, you just don’t win the WH without a minimum level of charisma and ability to BS.

  • Goldwater_Conservative

    or at least parts of it, not so much with the light rail thing but we do need a new highway system in Texas for the NAFTA corridor. Congestion on IH-35 is almost unbearable now. Anway, like it or not he was the guy in charge on selling it to Texans and he did a miserable job of it.

  • azaeroprof

    Keep in mind that my rankings, for what they are worth, are based on who I think is in the strongest position currently. They are not reflective of who I want to win, or who I think will win eventually.

  • aesthete

    Rather sad that the polymath behind ObamaCare’s predecessor is leading the pack, but c’est la vie, I suppose. I also think that we can count Palin out of the running: were she to run in the primary, she would make a strong showing and likely suck the oxygen out of the room, but I don’t think she’ll run. I am curious about who she’ll throw her weight behind and what she’ll get in return, though. Perry is clearly testing the waters for a Presidential run: one doesn’t do profiles in the MSM without aspiring to something beyond one’s current position, and in Perry’s case, that would be President. I am not partial to Perry, I must admit: though he hasn’t done anything particularly bad, he has never struck me as much of a leader, and most of what he takes credit for would have happened without him, given the conservative bent of the legislature and the state. I’d love for someone to prove me wrong, though, since it looks like we may be due for another round of Texan governance. Mitch Daniels is, I think, the dark horse to watch out for, and I hope that Palin throws her support behind him, Barbour, or another similarly experienced candidate.

  • Scope

    who knows who will populate the Republican, or even Democrat field of Presidential candidates for 2012, at this time. I do think this will be a very lively debate after the holidays. I think it’s been proven more than once that the Redstaters will vet candidates, even better than the TSA agents are vetting the prospective fliers at this time.