The reason Iowa will vote the way it will.
Below are the objective positive points for each of the top five candidates that will cause many Iowans to vote for them tomorrow:
Mitt Romney: Well spoken, knows the issues, got elected in a blue state, well funded, establishment support
Newt Gingrich: Well spoken, knows the issues, strategic and innovative thinker, conservative, lead the GOP out of the wilderness in 1994
Rick Perry: Proven winner, strong conservative, good looking, stands his ground
Rick Santorum: Fresh face, speaks well, knows the issues, no scandals/baggage, has personally worked very hard on the ground
Ron Paul: Anti-Washington reputation, strong libertarian positions, willing to take on the establishment
A few comments. I suspect that Romney voters are less fired up than others therefore Romney may under-perform his polling numbers. Whom ever can capture the deer-in-headlights voters who finds themselves in the voting booth with no idea what to do except Not Romney, will over-perform their polling numbers. A major miscalculation I think some are making concerns Rick Santorum. While we political junkies know he got clobbered in 2006, I am not sure the average Iowa voter really cares much about how Pennsylvania voted over five years ago. In comparison to Romney, Gingrich, Perry and Paul, Santorum is a new face without the baggage of the former two, the lack of articulation of Perry or the unusual tangents of Paul.
At this point it seems to be a wide open race with any of the top five in position to win. If the finishing percentages are something like 23-19-18-17-16-5-2 it would be in line with my expectations. Beyond Michelle Bachmann at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2% I have no idea who’s name will go next to each number.